T_bone65 Posted May 16, 2008 Author Share Posted May 16, 2008 Big Brown has had foot issues his whole career..which is why he's been lightly raced. There is nothing "new" to this. Ted--I'm just working through from Race 6 on...will do my best to post the undercard thoughts here later tonight. Thanks Mark, much appreciated. Any advice is much better then my drunken lookin through the book going by jockey and trainer seriously though, it is all appreciated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted May 17, 2008 Share Posted May 17, 2008 My friend, cousin, & I are thinking about going in on the 5 horse trifecta, what do you think a trifecta will pay if Big Brown wins? Timmy, my advice for what it's worth is, if you have 3 of you going in together try the superfecta instead. Or the pic 6... much bigger payoff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 17, 2008 Share Posted May 17, 2008 OK, here goes. I'm not playing anything until Race 6. Not sure of scratches, not sure of track condition. However, the value I see on the card in the first 5 races are: R1: The 7 and 6 look strong, but I'd have some money on the #2 Crafty Schemer as probably the 3rd or 4th favorite come post time. R2: The 3 Cryptogram pretty much had the best speed last race, and is a ML of 12/1....great value, should get your money's worth. The 5 Motown Shuffle has decent form and at a 20/1 ML, that's a live longshot. R3: Pass--no real value R4: Looks like a paceless race, and the 8 Off The Glass can come off the shelf and control this race. Will probably be 5/2 at post time though. R5: Pass--this race didn't interest me. This is where I'll be rolling some pick 3's throughout the card. R6: Looks like a 4 horse race here in my opinion. Liking in this order--3,2,1,4. The 1 will be the big favorite, but hasn't raced for 8 months. Like the 2 and the 3 best, and will box them heavy in an exacta. R7: Some of my notes from when I looked at this earlier--"the 5 is a player" --"play the 2 Tiznow's"---"1 should at least hit the board". The 1 Roman Emperor will be the favorite, and I've lost money on him twice this year already. The two Tiznow's are most intriguing to me, the 4 Midnight Communion and the 5 Da'Tara....I like them in this order 5,1,4,3. R8: This is all about luck, a 5F turf with a totally full field, and most of them are evenly matched. My notes say "12 is a stud", but that outside post in this type of race can hurt, but not so much at Pimlico where he has a ton of room to clear before the turn. The 12 is worth a single in my rolling P 3's but I'd say I was very intrigued with the following: First the 9 Silver Timer at a ML of 30/1, next the 6 Hesa Big Star (so for you perverts, just play a 6/9 box), and I give the 7 Mr. Mutter a big shot at a ML of 20/1...a big payday awaits someone in this race. I like them in this order 12,9,6,7. R9: My notes said the 3 and the 8 were clearly the best in this one. They look to have everything going for them, but I also saw the 6 Indy Joe and the 9 Silver Edition (anyone see a pattern here?) as capable of stepping up their game. Also liked the 1 Commandeered as one that was looking ready to move forward. So a good mix here of probably playing all 5 in my mix...liking in this order 3,8,6,9,1. R10: The 4 will probably be the favorite here, but I think he's totally beatable by these three horses. The 9 Pick Six is a square price and has the looks of one that means business tomorrow. I'll have money on his nose alone. After that, I like the 3 Buffalo Man on the stretch out...it's something I look for often and he has the breeding to handle this distance even though his last race was shorter...so a 9/3 exacta box is in order as well here. The 8 Salinja is another that is worth a shot in here...So, in this order I like 9,3,8,4. R11: This is another race where I think there will be 2 favorites that I don't like, the 1 and the 2. This is why with races 10-12 being the final pick 3 I'll play, I'll do the same thing I did in the Derby and spread deep with 6 horses in each race 10 and 11, and single Big Brown in the Preakness. Catch a few shots in these two and BB wins, it will be worth the investment. So in R11, there are many good runners in here and it was tough for me to settle on who I liked best, but I chose the 7 Buy The Barrel. She's stepping up in class in a big way, but Jones has something good going here and the racing Gods will look down on him after the tragedy from a few weeks ago. She's consistent and will be a square price. A close second choice is the 9 (again) Wow Me Free who's done nothing wrong and is a gamer...worth a 7/9 exacta box. The 8 Silver Knockers is ready to run, was ready to go at CD, but never got on the track when I was there, is working out like a mad woman. After that, I like a few others, so the order in which I like them are 7,9,8,6,4. The Preakness can be looked at two ways. Big Brown will bounce from his Kentucky Derby victory and win, or he'll progress and shatter a record or two. Only a fluke will keep him out of the winners circle as there isn't a horse in this field who can stick with him. If he doesn't fire, it will be because he's hurt, not because what he's previously shown. That being said, he's a single for a P3, but within this race, I like these other horses, and will play exacta's and tri's this way...of course I'll leave BB out of a few of my exactas just in case I can strike it rich. I mentioned that I like the 6 Racecar Rhapsody...ready to fire, 3rd off the lay, is primed to run a big race and can handle the distance. Next closest to him, I like the 11 Giant Moon for the same reasons...Now, they're both 30/1 ML...so on paper at 7-6-11 finish would actually be a pretty nice payoff for this race..so, I'm playing BB up top, and those two in the 2 hole...followed by the 4 Yankee Bravo (who owes me a little here and I think he's a late blooming classy colt), the 12 Gayego (just from a class standpoint he should be better than half this field), and the 8 Kentucky Bear (I'll play the lightly raced/fast colt angle here). So I like in this order 7,6,11,4,12,8. If they ain't mine, I hope they're yours. Good luck gents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T_bone65 Posted May 17, 2008 Author Share Posted May 17, 2008 OK, here goes. I'm not playing anything until Race 6. Not sure of scratches, not sure of track condition. However, the value I see on the card in the first 5 races are: R1: The 7 and 6 look strong, but I'd have some money on the #2 Crafty Schemer as probably the 3rd or 4th favorite come post time. R2: The 3 Cryptogram pretty much had the best speed last race, and is a ML of 12/1....great value, should get your money's worth. The 5 Motown Shuffle has decent form and at a 20/1 ML, that's a live longshot. R3: Pass--no real value R4: Looks like a paceless race, and the 8 Off The Glass can come off the shelf and control this race. Will probably be 5/2 at post time though. R5: Pass--this race didn't interest me. This is where I'll be rolling some pick 3's throughout the card. R6: Looks like a 4 horse race here in my opinion. Liking in this order--3,2,1,4. The 1 will be the big favorite, but hasn't raced for 8 months. Like the 2 and the 3 best, and will box them heavy in an exacta. R7: Some of my notes from when I looked at this earlier--"the 5 is a player" --"play the 2 Tiznow's"---"1 should at least hit the board". The 1 Roman Emperor will be the favorite, and I've lost money on him twice this year already. The two Tiznow's are most intriguing to me, the 4 Midnight Communion and the 5 Da'Tara....I like them in this order 5,1,4,3. R8: This is all about luck, a 5F turf with a totally full field, and most of them are evenly matched. My notes say "12 is a stud", but that outside post in this type of race can hurt, but not so much at Pimlico where he has a ton of room to clear before the turn. The 12 is worth a single in my rolling P 3's but I'd say I was very intrigued with the following: First the 9 Silver Timer at a ML of 30/1, next the 6 Hesa Big Star (so for you perverts, just play a 6/9 box), and I give the 7 Mr. Mutter a big shot at a ML of 20/1...a big payday awaits someone in this race. I like them in this order 12,9,6,7. R9: My notes said the 3 and the 8 were clearly the best in this one. They look to have everything going for them, but I also saw the 6 Indy Joe and the 9 Silver Edition (anyone see a pattern here?) as capable of stepping up their game. Also liked the 1 Commandeered as one that was looking ready to move forward. So a good mix here of probably playing all 5 in my mix...liking in this order 3,8,6,9,1. R10: The 4 will probably be the favorite here, but I think he's totally beatable by these three horses. The 9 Pick Six is a square price and has the looks of one that means business tomorrow. I'll have money on his nose alone. After that, I like the 3 Buffalo Man on the stretch out...it's something I look for often and he has the breeding to handle this distance even though his last race was shorter...so a 9/3 exacta box is in order as well here. The 8 Salinja is another that is worth a shot in here...So, in this order I like 9,3,8,4. R11: This is another race where I think there will be 2 favorites that I don't like, the 1 and the 2. This is why with races 10-12 being the final pick 3 I'll play, I'll do the same thing I did in the Derby and spread deep with 6 horses in each race 10 and 11, and single Big Brown in the Preakness. Catch a few shots in these two and BB wins, it will be worth the investment. So in R11, there are many good runners in here and it was tough for me to settle on who I liked best, but I chose the 7 Buy The Barrel. She's stepping up in class in a big way, but Jones has something good going here and the racing Gods will look down on him after the tragedy from a few weeks ago. She's consistent and will be a square price. A close second choice is the 9 (again) Wow Me Free who's done nothing wrong and is a gamer...worth a 7/9 exacta box. The 8 Silver Knockers is ready to run, was ready to go at CD, but never got on the track when I was there, is working out like a mad woman. After that, I like a few others, so the order in which I like them are 7,9,8,6,4. The Preakness can be looked at two ways. Big Brown will bounce from his Kentucky Derby victory and win, or he'll progress and shatter a record or two. Only a fluke will keep him out of the winners circle as there isn't a horse in this field who can stick with him. If he doesn't fire, it will be because he's hurt, not because what he's previously shown. That being said, he's a single for a P3, but within this race, I like these other horses, and will play exacta's and tri's this way...of course I'll leave BB out of a few of my exactas just in case I can strike it rich. I mentioned that I like the 6 Racecar Rhapsody...ready to fire, 3rd off the lay, is primed to run a big race and can handle the distance. Next closest to him, I like the 11 Giant Moon for the same reasons...Now, they're both 30/1 ML...so on paper at 7-6-11 finish would actually be a pretty nice payoff for this race..so, I'm playing BB up top, and those two in the 2 hole...followed by the 4 Yankee Bravo (who owes me a little here and I think he's a late blooming classy colt), the 12 Gayego (just from a class standpoint he should be better than half this field), and the 8 Kentucky Bear (I'll play the lightly raced/fast colt angle here). So I like in this order 7,6,11,4,12,8. If they ain't mine, I hope they're yours. Good luck gents. Thanks so much Mark, we are getting ready to leave now and I have everything here printed out. If any wild hairs come out you can always call me, my cell is on MFL in ATAP. Thanks again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tboogs Posted May 17, 2008 Share Posted May 17, 2008 Runway Rosie in the Dupont Distaff ....Kent Desormeaux has the mount ...I believe it is the race before the preakness... 25 WPS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 17, 2008 Share Posted May 17, 2008 Big Brown looks great...nice and relaxed, like a pro. Let's see what happens, but I see him winning in hand today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 17, 2008 Share Posted May 17, 2008 Well in hand...too easy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budlitebrad Posted May 17, 2008 Share Posted May 17, 2008 Well in hand...too easy. Way too easy. BB didn't have to work hard at all for that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 17, 2008 Share Posted May 17, 2008 I haven't been more sure of a Triple Crown winner since I've been following the Sport of Kings...he's going to do it. And that will be the last race we'll ever see him run again....he'll have 6 career starts and will get syndicated for at least 100 million, maybe 150. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted May 17, 2008 Share Posted May 17, 2008 Amazing. I only wish I had picked THIS year to attend the Belmont Stakes instead of 2006. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 17, 2008 Share Posted May 17, 2008 $400+ Pick 3...sweet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 17, 2008 Share Posted May 17, 2008 The overhead shot from the blimp...simply unlike anything I've seen before. Kent sitting chilly, knows what he has, and then pushes the button and he just explodes. Amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelBunz Posted May 17, 2008 Share Posted May 17, 2008 The overhead shot from the blimp...simply unlike anything I've seen before. Kent sitting chilly, knows what he has, and then pushes the button and he just explodes. Amazing. Never touched him with the crop, Gil. Just asked....and he kicks into the next gear. You could tell at the 1/2 pole he had a ton of horse left. Unreal....he looks amazing. I think this horse has a gear we haven't seen yet....not sure he'll ever need it....LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budlitebrad Posted May 18, 2008 Share Posted May 18, 2008 I saw his stud rights were sold to Three Chimneys for reportedly $50 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted May 19, 2008 Share Posted May 19, 2008 I saw his stud rights were sold to Three Chimneys for reportedly $50 million. Let's hope the Belmont isn't his last race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Agent Posted May 19, 2008 Share Posted May 19, 2008 Let's hope the Belmont isn't his last race. They say it will be. Anyone know anything about this horse out of Japan? I heard something about a horse being brought in to run against BB in the Belmont. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budlitebrad Posted May 19, 2008 Share Posted May 19, 2008 (edited) They say it will be. Anyone know anything about this horse out of Japan? I heard something about a horse being brought in to run against BB in the Belmont. Casino Drive. He'll be well rested and the likely favorite to pull the upset over BB. He's raced twice and taken both. Kent Desormeaux rode him in the Peter Pan Stakes and he took it by over 5 lengths. He is also the brother of Jazil and Rags to Riches, coincidentally the last two horses to win Belmont. Edited May 19, 2008 by budlitebrad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted May 19, 2008 Share Posted May 19, 2008 Casino Drive. He'll be well rested and the likely favorite to pull the upset over BB. He's raced twice and taken both. Kent Desormeaux rode him in the Peter Pan Stakes and he took it by over 5 lengths. He is also the brother of Jazil and Rags to Riches, coincidentally the last two horses to win Belmont. I found it odd they gave the mount to Desormeaux in the Peter Pan. Why would'nt they let someone else ride knowing Kent would be on Big Brown in the Belmont? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted May 19, 2008 Share Posted May 19, 2008 They say it will be. Anyone know anything about this horse out of Japan? I heard something about a horse being brought in to run against BB in the Belmont. Can't blame the owners I guess with so much $$ on the line, but this is IMO what sucks with horse racing. Why not let the horse do what he was bred to do; race? I'd love to at least see how Big Brown fares against Curlin in the Breeders Cup Classic... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheShiznit Posted May 19, 2008 Share Posted May 19, 2008 I haven't been more sure of a Triple Crown winner since I've been following the Sport of Kings...he's going to do it. And that will be the last race we'll ever see him run again....he'll have 6 career starts and will get syndicated for at least 100 million, maybe 150. I felt pretty good about Smarty Jones.....I really thought that horse would do it. Was close.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Agent Posted May 19, 2008 Share Posted May 19, 2008 Can't blame the owners I guess with so much $$ on the line, but this is IMO what sucks with horse racing. Why not let the horse do what he was bred to do; race? I'd love to at least see how Big Brown fares against Curlin in the Breeders Cup Classic... Yeah, that would be fun to see. But I guess it's just not worth the risk when you're dealing with a 50 million dollar colt. I really hope BB wins in a few weeks. I can't believe it's been 30 years since a horse won the Triple Crown. Hopefully we are witnessing something very special. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted May 19, 2008 Share Posted May 19, 2008 The fact of the matter is that nobody, with the exception of those who closely follow horse racing, will care, or even remember who Big Brown is...no 2 year old campaign, 6 lifetime races...he'll be gone to stud before anyone really remembers who he is. Not racing him in the Travers or the Breeders Cup will be a shame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted May 19, 2008 Share Posted May 19, 2008 The fact of the matter is that nobody, with the exception of those who closely follow horse racing, will care, or even remember who Big Brown is...no 2 year old campaign, 6 lifetime races...he'll be gone to stud before anyone really remembers who he is. Not racing him in the Travers or the Breeders Cup will be a shame. I agree %100. There'll never be another Cigar, etc. because the "great ones" get rushed off to the breeding shed. Big Brown sure looks like he could be "great" but we'll never know. Even if he wins the Triple Crown noone will ever know how great he really is unless he faces the best in the world. Pisses me off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justin Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 The fact of the matter is that nobody, with the exception of those who closely follow horse racing, will care, or even remember who Big Brown is... I agree that it will be a shame, but disagree that people won't remember Big Brown. If he wins the TC, he will be remembered, no doubt. Anyone who ever watched or cared about horse racing will be watching the Belmont in three weeks and if BB pulls it off, he will go down as the best in 30 years. Whether he deserves to be called that or not, the media will pin it on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheikYerbuti Posted May 20, 2008 Share Posted May 20, 2008 Amen, but as a frequent attendee, I've noticed that plenty of the tits are old and floppidy. Just be carefull...... BOI-oi-oi-oi-oi-oi-oi-ng. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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