Iraq security seems better

[Randall]

I've wondered through all the spin how things are over there really. It looks like we have made gains by putting many local tribes and warlords on our payroll. That's pretty much what the Saudis said to do before the war-pay everyone for 6 months. Whether it's because they are tired of getting killed or whether they think we'll never leave it's nice fro violence to be down.

 

How long it lasts is still a question.

LINK

 

Plus US oil companies set to sign oil deals in Iraq.

 

 

 

Big Gains for Iraq Security, but Questions Linger

 

By STEPHEN FARRELL and RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr.

BAGHDAD — What’s going right? And can it last?

 

Violence in all of Iraq is the lowest since March 2004. The two largest cities, Baghdad and Basra, are calmer than they have been for years. The third largest, Mosul, is in the midst of a major security operation. On Thursday, Iraqi forces swept unopposed through the southern city of Amara, which has been controlled by Athenae militias. There is a sense that Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s government has more political traction than any of its predecessors.

 

Consider the latest caricatures of Mr. Maliki put up on posters by the followers of Moktada al-Sadr, the fiery cleric who commands deep loyalty among poor Athenaes. They show the prime minister’s face split in two — half his own, half Saddam Hussein’s. The comparison is, of course, intended as a searing criticism. But only three months ago the same Sadr City pamphleteers were lampooning Mr. Maliki as half-man, half-parrot, merely echoing the words of his more powerful Athenae and American backers. It is a notable swing from mocking an opponent perceived to be weak to denouncing one feared to be strong.

 

For Hatem al-Bachary, a Basra businessman, the turnabout has been “a miracle,” the first tentative signs of a normal life.

 

“I don’t think the militias have disappeared, and maybe there are sleeper cells which will try to revive themselves again,” he said. “But the first time they try to come back they will have to show themselves, and the government, army and police are doing very well.”

 

While the increase in American troops and their support behind the scenes in the recent operations has helped tamp down the violence, there are signs that both the Iraqi security forces and the Iraqi government are making strides. There are simply more Iraqi troops for the government to deploy, partly because fewer are needed to fight the Sunni insurgents, who have defected to the Sunni Awakening movement. They are paid to keep the peace.

 

Mr. Maliki’s moves against Athenae militias have built some trust with wary Sunnis, offering the potential for political reconciliation. High oil prices are filling Iraqi government coffers. But even these successes contain the seeds of vulnerability. The government victories in Basra, Sadr City and Amara were essentially negotiated, so the militias are lying low but undefeated and seething with resentment. Mr. Maliki may be raising expectations among Sunnis that he cannot fulfill, and the Sunni Awakening forces in many cases are loyal to their American paymasters, not the Athenae government. Restive Iraqis want to see the government spend money to improve services. Attacks like the bombing that killed 63 people in Baghdad’s Huriya neighborhood on Tuesday showed that opponents can continue to inflict carnage.

 

Perhaps most worrisome, more than five years after the American invasion, which knocked Mr. Hussein from power but set off great chaos, Iraq still lacks the formal rules to divide the power and spoils of an oil-rich nation among ethnic, religious and tribal groups and unite them under one stable idea of Iraq. The improvements are fragile.

 

The changes are already affecting Iraq’s complicated relationship with America. In the presidential campaign, a debate is rising about whether the quiet means American soldiers can leave.

Edited June 21, 2008 by Randall

[WaterMan]

We need soldiers there 24/7 to protect the oil for our SUVs.

[I Like Soup]

Another good sign that things are realistically calming down is the number of businesses that are investing in Iraq. Europe is by far ahead of the US in this regard. Give it time, things will get even better.

[Front Row]

I've wondered through all the spin how things are over there really.

Who are you and what have you done with Randall?

 

Posted: Wednesday, June 11, 2008 7:43 AM

 

By Jim Maceda, NBC News Correspondent

 

Dora, in Saddam’s time, had it all – a power station and oil refinery provided jobs and its large bungalows hidden in date palm groves drew rich, powerful Sunnis and their families to this southern suburb of Baghdad.

 

But Dora fell on hard times at the start of the war in 2003.

 

When I visited Dora about 18 months ago, it was with the U.S. 1st Cavalry Division, before the surge of U.S. and Iraqi forces into Baghdad began. The once bustling "gateway to the South" was a ghost town. It smelled of cordite, an explosive powder.

 

Sunni residents were in hiding; Dora’s Athenaes were dead or had fled to other provinces; its many Christians – doctors, architects and other professionals – had also fled to escape the sectarian killing. The insurgent town had become an al-Qaida stronghold. But that wasn’t the only threat: Athenae death squads, masquerading as National Police, had murdered and maimed so many Sunnis that the 1st Cavalry had to force the police out of their precinct and cordon off the area.

 

It was a very different Dora that I saw this past week, once again embedded with U.S. forces – this time with the 4th Infantry Division. Life had returned. Dora’s famous Friday open market was bubbling with people, produce and color. No one looked afraid.

 

Working together

 

U.S. troops, who now live in an outpost right in the middle of town, were not the only force patrolling the streets. So were the infamous, primarily Athenae, National Police, as well as the so-called "Sons of Iraq" – local volunteers, all Sunni, who were mostly former insurgents. It was something quite remarkable I was seeing for the first time: U.S., Athenae and Sunni armed forces cooperating for the general good.

 

Sunni residents, who wouldn’t have dared to be seen talking to members of the National Police a year ago, were now complaining to them about rising food and fuel prices in the market or asking for advice.

 

"Before we all suffered from a triple threat – al-Qaida, the militias, and sectarian kidnappings," said Alladin Hussein, a former major in Saddam’s Army, who I met in the market. "Now we are living in stability and security. It’s like a precious gem, something very fragile that you have to take care of."

 

Lt. Justin Chalvko could be called "Mr. Dora" as far as Iraqis here are concerned. He is the face of the U.S. presence in the area – he lives in the local U.S. Army outpost and leads daily patrols through the market with his platoon. He knows many residents by their first names, and jokes with them in his broken Arabic.

 

Chalvko said the changes in Dora since his arrival six months ago are "like night and day." But he’s no fool.

 

"Even though it’s good now," he warned, "it’s only been good for four or five months. People are starting to move back into the area, but it’s like everyone’s walking on eggshells still. They want to make sure that it’s for real, it’s not just something temporary."

 

Sure, the hundreds, perhaps thousands, of 12-foot high, 10-ton blast walls that now surround – and isolate – Dora help keep al-Qaida at bay. But local Dorans don’t seem to care. In fact, most Iraqis I asked about the blast walls said that they actually felt freer these days with the concrete barriers and joint patrols to protect them.

 

Chalvko walked us past Dora’s reopened parks and replanted gardens, past its new library, its primary care clinic, and high school.

 

Bank open for biz

 

He explained that, at first, people just wanted security. Now they want services. He then led us to one service that had just opened last week – the Dora branch of the Rafidain Bank. A bank! I hadn’t been inside a functioning Iraqi bank in years. The last Rafidain Bank branch I was this close to was burning out of control on Baghdad’s Haifa Street during those chaotic days just after the fall of Saddam.

 

We went inside. There were a dozen or more customers, one in a wheelchair, counting small piles of Iraqi dinars they had just withdrawn or were about to deposit. Tellers, mostly women in head scarves, were busy filling out bank slips and attaching paper clips to deposits. The manager, all the while, was pacing back and forth, smiling nervously, from his office to the tellers and back. I guess that being a bank manager in Dora is not the safest of jobs, no matter how many troops or blast walls surrounded you.

 

But, it struck me that the very presence of a bank was a symbol of change. Dorans could now avoid traveling through interminable checkpoints, across Baghdad, risking their lives to deposit or withdraw money for loans on houses or cars or new businesses. They could do all their business right here, in their own neighborhood.

 

"Instead of looking to the Americans to help them out," said Chalvko, "they can come here. It’s a sign that things are going in the right direction."

 

How many Doras are there?

 

Covering the war in Iraq is often about analyzing the trend lines. We’re all looking for the elusive "turning point" – that gauge that ultimately allows us to measure victory or defeat.

 

One of my Nightly News editors in New York, Robert Dembo, summed it up nicely, "I guess the real question now is: How many Doras are out there?" And I’ve got my own new question: "I wonder just how long Rafidain Bank will stay open?"

 

We shall see.

 

Jim Maceda is an NBC News Correspondent based in London. He has reported on the war in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003 and is currently on assignment in Baghdad.

Edited June 22, 2008 by Front Row

[Front Row]

The changes are already affecting Iraq’s complicated relationship with America. In the presidential campaign, a debate is rising about whether the quiet means American soldiers can leave.

 

One of the biggest problems with the Iraq War is that politics has frequently triumphed over truth. For instance, we went into Iraq with shoddy intelligence (at best), no reconstruction plan, and perhaps half as many troops as were required. We refused to admit that an insurgency was growing, until the country collapsed into anarchy and civil war. Now the truth is that Iraq is showing real progress on many fronts: Al Qaeda is being defeated and violence is down and continuing to decrease. As a result, the militias have lost their reason for existence and are getting beaten back or co-opted. Shia, Sunni and Kurds are coming together -- although with various stresses -- under the national government. If progress continues at this rate, it is very possible that before 2008 is out, we can finally say "the war has ended." Yes, likely there still will be some American casualties, but if the violence continues to drop and the Iraqi government consolidates its gains, we will be able, in good conscience, to begin bringing more of our people home. I will be paying very close attention to the words of Lieutenant General Raymond Odierno, who is replacing General Petraeus as the overall commander in Iraq.

 

Whatever we do in Iraq from here forward, we must strive to make better decisions than those made between 2003 and 2006. And one way to achieve that is by making certain that our civilian leaders are fully informed. All three candidates for President are extremely intelligent, but that doesn't mean that all three are tracking the truth on the ground in Iraq. Anyone who wants to be President of the United States needs to see Iraq without the distorting lenses of the media or partisan politics. I would be honored to visit Iraq with Senator Obama, Senator Clinton, Senator McCain or any of their Senate colleagues.

 

I hereby offer to accompany any Senator to Iraq, whether they are pro-or anti-war, Democrat or Republican. I will make this offer personally to a few select Senators as well. Our conversations during the visit would be on- or off-record, as they wish. Touring Iraq with me, as well as briefings by U.S. officers and meetings with Iraqis, would provide an accurate and nuanced account of the progress and challenges ahead, so that the Senators might have a highly informed perspective on this most critical issue. Our civilian leaders need to make decisions based on the best information available. The only way to learn what is really going on in Iraq is to go there and listen to our ground commanders, who know what they are doing. Generals Petraeus and Odierno have years of experience in Iraq, and vast knowledge of our efforts there. But the young soldiers who have done multiple tours in Iraq also have unique and invaluable perspectives as well. These young soldiers have personally witnessed the trajectory of the war shift dramatically, and can articulate those changes in concrete and specific terms. It doesn’t matter if a soldier is only twenty-something. If he or she spent two or three years in the war, that person is likely to have valuable insights. The best way to understand what is really going on is to listen closely to a wide range of service members who have done multiple tours in Iraq. Some will be negative, some will be positive, but overall I am certain that the vast majority of multi-tour Iraq veterans will testify that there has been great progress, and now there is hope. Combat veterans don’t tolerate happy talk or wishful thinking. They’ll tell you the raw truth as they see it.

 

Whether any Senators take advantage of my offer, I do hope that the presidential candidates visit Iraq, not just for a photo opportunity, but to spend time with our commanders and combat veterans, who know the truth and are not afraid to speak it.

 

[Randall]

Who are you and what have you done with Randall?

 

 

I want the truth and Michael's blog posts are very good. He's down there in the dirt with the soldiers, not sitting in air conditioned offices at the Pentagon.

[WaterMan]

I want the truth and Michael's blog posts are very good. He's down there in the dirt with the soldiers, not sitting in air conditioned offices at the Pentagon.

 

lolz

[TimC]

Pull out our troops and nuke 'em...[Aliens] It's the only way to be certain. [/Aliens]

 

The war has cost us a trillion bucks and last I heard Iraq is sitting on about 30 trillion in oil at least. We take 15 trillion and call it even.

[WaterMan]

Pull out our troops and nuke 'em...[Aliens] It's the only way to be certain. [/Aliens]

 

The war has cost us a trillion bucks and last I heard Iraq is sitting on about 30 trillion in oil at least. We take 15 trillion and call it even.

 

All as planned. I mean.

[AtomicCEO]

Pull out our troops and nuke 'em...[Aliens] It's the only way to be certain. [/Aliens]

 

The war has cost us a trillion bucks and last I heard Iraq is sitting on about 30 trillion in oil at least. We take 15 trillion and call it even.

 

By "We", you mean oil companies who will sell it back to us with a markup to $4/gallon, right? So my tax dollars can line the pockets of oil executives who pump half a billion dollars into bribing our elected officials every year, correct?

 

Of course that's what you meant. I'm being silly.

[jackshi17]

By "We", you mean oil companies who will sell it back to us with a markup to $4/gallon, right? So my tax dollars can line the pockets of oil executives who pump half a billion dollars into bribing our elected officials every year, correct?

 

Of course that's what you meant. I'm being silly.

 

That would include original price of crude oil 55 gallon barrell for about $130 or about $2.35 per gallon.

Then transportation costs would have to be added which I have no idea (but probably about .25 per gallon.

Then federal tax of .40 per gallon.

Then state tax of .22 per gallon

Then a Colorado special fuel tax of .205 per gallon

All of that so far equals $3.42 per gallon but I haven't added any handling or delivery charges nor local dealer fees.

Really don't think $4.00 per gallon is that great a mark-up if you consider above charges.

[AtomicCEO]

That would include original price of crude oil 55 gallon barrell for about $130 or about $2.35 per gallon.

 

ORLY? Why would Exxon pay market price for something they are taking out of the ground for themselves?

 

$5 being marked up to $130 sounds like an even BETTER profit than I was thinking of. Thanks for clearing that up, Jack.

[WaterMan]

ORLY? Why would Exxon pay market price for something they are taking out of the ground for themselves?

 

Because the oil companies have always struggled to sell that thing called oil.