Sound Off: Ben Roethlisberger

[Skippy]

BR - I'm not sure if you are saying this or not but in a 10 team league everyone drops lower. I don't check on anything less than 12 team leagues as I don't play in anything less than 12 team. I could see him in the fifth in 10 team leagues do to there only being 10 vs 12 picks per round.

[Menudo]

I think you are not paying attention to trends in the FF world. According to the ADP link on MFL.com, he has an ADP of 30. It's probable he will be gone before round 4 starts in a 12 team league.

 

That's: All scoring systems, Redraft, All types of drafts, and chosen in at least 65% Bump that 65% down to 30% and he still has an ADP of 30.

 

If you think you will get him after round 4, you're smoking something and I want a care package

 

 

I agree. Everything that I have been paying attention to is telling me that early fouth is the latest you are going to get him and that may be late for a lot of leagues. That's why I won't get him but in those leagues that he does slip someone is going to be happy.

 

 

I'm feeling like less and less of a homer for snagging him with my 7th rounder in the Ladder (12-team league)

[yo mama]

Ben's ADP is 50-55 picks in (5.1 or later in a standard 12 team league) but I'm just not willing pull the trigger there. Ben was like the 5th most productive overall last year, and 4th most productive from a points per game perspective. And that'd be great value, assuming he came with a guarantee to repeat.

 

But Delhomme actually had a higher points per game (with a much smaller sample size, for sure) and his ADP is like 110-120.

 

Garrard had the 12th highest points per game and was the 16th best QB last year, despite playing in only 12 games. And his ADP is like 100-110.

 

Culter was 11th overall in points, and 18th best from a points per game perspective, and should only improve. His ADP is 80-85.

 

The actual spread between Garrard and Ben, when you project their stats over 16 games isn't *too* far off, but its significant. However, you can get Garrard or Delhomme like four full rounds later than Ben, and Cutler two or three rounds earlier. And the point spread between the type of RB or WR you can draft at 5.1 and 9.1 more often than not produces an even greater disparity in points. So assuming that 5.1 pick get spent wisely elsewhere, and you can find a decent QB later on, I think there is ample justification not to reach for a QB (unless its one of the top 4).

 

I know people are drafting QBs earlier this year. But in the ADP world, when the masses zig sometimes it pays to zag.

Edited July 29, 2008 by yo mama

[TDFFFreak]

Ben's ADP is 50-55 picks in (5.1 or later in a standard 12 team league) but I'm just not willing pull the trigger there. Ben was like the 5th most productive overall last year, and 4th most productive from a points per game perspective. And that'd great value, assuming he came with a guarantee to repeat.

 

But Delhomme actually had a higher points per game (with a much smaller sample size, for sure) and his ADP is like 110-120.

 

Garrard had the 12th highest points per game and was the 16th best QB last year, despite playing in only 12 games. And his ADP is like 100-110.

 

Culter was 11th overall in points, and 18th best from a points per game perspective, and should only improve. His ADP is 80-85.

 

The actual spread between Garrard and Ben, when you project their stats over 16 games isn't *too* far off, but its significant. However, you can get Garrard or Delhomme like four full rounds later than Ben, and Cutler two or three rounds earlier. And the point spread between the type of RB or WR you can draft at 5.1 and 9.1 more often than not produces an even greater disparity in points. So assuming that 5.1 pick get spent wisely elsewhere, and you can find a decent QB later on, I think there is ample justification not to reach for a QB (unless its one of the top 4).

 

I know people are drafting QBs earlier this year. But in the ADP world, when the masses zig sometimes it pays to zag.

This is why I hate playing against you in the Empire, Yo. It's like looking in the strategy mirror sometimes. I was just going to say before reading this that I'd much rather have Gerrard 3 or 4 rounds later than Ben and it's not even close IMO.

Edited July 29, 2008 by TDFFFreak

[yo mama]

This is why I hate playing against you in the Empire, Yo. It's like looking in the strategy mirror sometimes. I was just going to say before reading this that I'd much rather have Gerrard 3 or 4 rounds later, than Ben and it's not even close IMO.

I thought you hated playing against me in Empire because you keep losing.

 

 

Just teasin'. Great minds think a like. Thankfully, we don't have to draft anywhere near each other this year, so we won't be going after too many of the same player.

[TDFFFreak]

I thought you hated playing against me in Empire because you keep losing.

 

 

Just teasin'. Great minds think a like. Thankfully, we don't have to draft anywhere near each other this year, so we won't be going after too many of the same player.

9th pick overall, 3rd place regular season. I just couldn't overcome your 1st pick advantage last year... Seriously, don't give away too many of "our" secrets.

 

Oh, and we never have the problem stated above by you because you are always first and I am always towards the back.

Edited July 29, 2008 by TDFFFreak

[BeeR]

BR - I'm not sure if you are saying this or not but in a 10 team league everyone drops lower. I don't check on anything less than 12 team leagues as I don't play in anything less than 12 team. I could see him in the fifth in 10 team leagues do to there only being 10 vs 12 picks per round.

yeah but you're saying gone by the 4th - even in 12 rounders, not seeing that (not unheard of though).

 

Regardless, too high for my tastes but to each their own.

[bushwacked]

In summary, Roth will put up good numbers. But I don't think he will fall to me in the 9th round like he did last year.