Sound Off: Ben Roethlisberger

[j2v]

Consider this "Son of Fantasy University". Each day we’ll make a post regarding a fantasy-relevant player or situation; then, we’ll turn the mic over to you and hear what you have to say.

 

Today’s candidate: Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger

 

On the heels of a season in which he obliterated his previous career high with 32 touchdowns, Roethlisberger finds himself consistently going off the fantasy draft board just off the fringe of the top five quarterbacks.

 

On the flip side, Big Ben’s 2007 effort smacks of aberration; after all, the 32 scoring strikes were a more than 40 percent jump over anything he’d done previously. Four years into his NFL career he still hasn’t made it unscathed through a full 16-game slate, and an offensive line that has allowed him to absorb 93 sacks over the past two seasons lost its best player—guard Alan Faneca—via free agency.

 

Roethlisberger still has plenty of weapons at his disposal: veteran Hines Ward and emerging talent Santonio Holmes, plus rookie wideout Limas Sweed and a backfield bursting with talent. So, is he worthy of a fourth-round selection, two spots after Carson Palmer—where his ADP suggests he’s going? Or will the fantasy owner who commits to Big Ben in 2008 be facing the same world of hurt Roethlisberger endured meeting the pavement head-on when he crashed his motorcycle during the 2006 offseason?

[DMD]

Not to mention our player pages which not only have all the great huddle stats on them, they will be dynamic as the season progresses which makes me very happy.

 

As for Big Ben, there is no doubt he is a very good QB. My opinion is that people are drafting him too early based on those 32 touchdowns he passed for last year. Willie Parker only rushed in TWO. That meant Roethlisberger had to pass in touchdowns and now they have Rashard Mendenhall there for at least those goal line busting runs (if not much more).

 

BR has never passed for more than 3500 yards and that was in 2006 when everything fell apart. He's a solid QB in fantasy but I think he is going too high. His previous seasons had TDs of 17, 17 and 18. He ranked 8th in FF points in 2006 and that seems a whole lot more like what he will do than the #5 or #6 I keep seeing in drafts.

[piratesownninjas]

Not to mention our player pages which not only have all the great huddle stats on them, they will be dynamic as the season progresses which makes me very happy.

 

As for Big Ben, there is no doubt he is a very good QB. My opinion is that people are drafting him too early based on those 32 touchdowns he passed for last year. Willie Parker only rushed in TWO. That meant Roethlisberger had to pass in touchdowns and now they have Rashard Mendenhall there for at least those goal line busting runs (if not much more).

 

BR has never passed for more than 3500 yards and that was in 2006 when everything fell apart. He's a solid QB in fantasy but I think he is going too high. His previous seasons had TDs of 17, 17 and 18. He ranked 8th in FF points in 2006 and that seems a whole lot more like what he will do than the #5 or #6 I keep seeing in drafts.

Plus he's playing an incredibley difficult schedule this year? I like him a lot as a player, but I'm nowhere near sold on him being drafted that early. I plan on letting someone else take him.

[yo mama]

I like him, but not enough reach for him. The Steeler's offense is so solid - and so is Ben - that you don't sense a lot of downside. But he's a safe pick, relative to guys like Bulger, Leinhart, or perhaps even Cutler (pending Marshall's outcome), Andersen, Hasselbeck, or Delhomme. I'm just not willing to draft him 50-55 picks in if there is solid value at a different position. If I can't get Manning, Brees, Brady, Romo, or Palmer I'd almost rather wait and take the 12th QB off the board than the 6th, assuming I've got RB, WR, and/or TE picks I really like that are also available.

Edited July 29, 2008 by yo mama

[bushwacked]

I like him, but not enough reach for him.

 

Wurd, drafted him in several leagues last year but he seems to be going too high this year for my liking. I'm not sure about last year being an aberration; he proved to me last year he is definitely in the group of QBs behind Brady and Manning (+ Palmer if you want to put him in the top tier).

 

 

As for Big Ben, there is no doubt he is a very good QB. My opinion is that people are drafting him too early based on those 32 touchdowns he passed for last year. Willie Parker only rushed in TWO. That meant Roethlisberger had to pass in touchdowns and now they have Rashard Mendenhall there for at least those goal line busting runs (if not much more).

 

But Davenport scored 7 TDs last year and they lost Faneca. Seems reasonable the Steeler coaching staff would still go into this year expecting Ben to carry the scoring load like he did last year.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Great NFL QB. Very good fantasy QB, largely because he can run or throw for TDs when they get close to the end zone Very underrated last year, somewhat overrated this year because of the horrific schedule the Steelers play.

[LooGie]

IMO, he's probably going to go too high. In fact, just about every QB will go too high, even the mighty Brady.

[TDFFFreak]

I like him, but not enough reach for him. The Steeler's offense is so solid - and so is Ben - that you don't sense a lot of downside. But he's a safe pick, relative to guys like Bulger, Leinhart, or perhaps even Cutler (pending Marshall's outcome), Andersen, Hasselbeck, or Delhomme. I'm just not willing to draft him 50-55 picks in if there is solid value at a different position. If I can't get Manning, Brees, Brady, Romo, or Palmer I'd almost rather wait and take the 12th QB off the board than the 6th, assuming I've got RB, WR, and/or TE picks I really like that are also available.

What he said. There is such a large grouping of 2nd level QBs IMO that Ben is not worth much more or less than the bunch. I'll stay away in the early-mid rounds.

[Steeltown D]

IMO, he is being over valued, as are most of the top QB's in FF. I would not reach for him.

 

I will add that, IMO, he is not over rated. He will be expected to carry this team to a certain extent and he has shown that he is capable of doing that. But, his TD's will drop this year due to what I will hope is a better red zone running game. Love me some Mendy. That being said, I do expect him to throw about 24-25 TD's this year and Sweed should be on the receiving end of some of those.

[Menudo]

I've been on record several times as saying that I expect an 8-8 or 9-7 season for the Steelers this year. That said, I expect their offensive players in the passing game to put up very good numbers this year. I don't expect Roethlisberger's numbers to fall off from last year. They are going to have to rely on him even more this season. The only risk I see is that he could get injured due to their weak offensive line. Here is an article from today. I've highlighted some of the key points.

 

 

 

Roethlisberger will drive Steelers' success

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

By Ron Cook, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Peter Diana / Post-Gazette

 

After one day of training camp, it seems obvious the Steelers have a lot going against them. Casey Hampton is too fat. Troy Polamalu and Chris Kemoeatu are too lame. The offensive line could be too weak. The defensive line could be too old. The schedule is too tough. The Cleveland Browns could be too strong.

 

But the Steelers also have one very important thing going for them.

 

Big Ben.

 

"It almost scares me how good he is, how into it he is and how good he's going to be," offensive coordinator Bruce Arians was saying between camp practices yesterday.

 

Probably scares a few NFL defensive coordinators, too.

 

The Steelers are lucky to have an elite player at football's most crucial position, the best quarterback in the league not named Tom Brady. You might argue for Peyton Manning. The Steelers and I will take Ben Roethlisberger at this stage of their careers. That's why the Steelers gave him a $102 million contract in March, including a $25.2 million signing bonus. That's why I'm here to tell you this morning he is the one reason to like the Steelers' chances of holding off the Browns in the AFC North Division.

 

I'm thankful I have the easy part, not the money part.

 

Roethlisberger has done so much so quickly that it's easy to forget he's 26, starting his fifth season. He became the first quarterback in NFL history to go 13-0 in the regular season as a rookie in 2004. He led the Steelers to the Super Bowl in '05. Forget '06 because of his motorcycle accident, emergency appendectomy and concussion. He set franchise records last season with 32 touchdown passes and a 104.1 passer rating and made his first Pro Bowl.

 

"He's going to continue to grow as a quarterback," Steelers wide receiver Hines Ward said. "He'll keep getting better and better."

 

Arians already has seen it on the practice fields at Saint Vincent College in Latrobe. "It's the way he carries himself," he said. "It's a night-and-day difference now from where he was two years ago. Then, he was like, 'I've got to take care of myself. This stuff is hard.' Now, he's like, 'I've got most of it down. I can help the other guys.' "

 

In the team run test Sunday, Roethlisberger was the first to Hampton when Hampton clearly was struggling. (Unfortunately, he didn't kick The Big Snack in his fat behind for letting his coaches and teammates down). After the morning practice yesterday, he walked off the field with wide receiver Willie Reid, who had a couple of minor dust-ups with defensive players during drills. "You have to be smart," Roethlisberger could be heard telling Reid.

 

I'm thinking the Steelers bought a little leadership for that $102 million.

 

But let's be real here. The Rooneys paid the big money for big plays, touchdown passes and wins. There are reasons to think Roethlisberger will deliver on all fronts.

 

There are the new rookie additions -- running back Rashard Mendenhall and wide receiver Limas Sweed, the big target Roethlisberger coveted -- to an offense that includes the ultimate possession receiver in Ward, a budding big-play man in Santonio Holmes, a terrific tight end in Heath Miller and a healthy Willie Parker at running back.

 

"I think we have an explosive offense that's ready to take off," Roethlisberger said.

 

There is an underappreciated offensive line that's better than the 47 sacks the Steelers gave up last season, at least according to the poor fellow who was on the receiving end of all 47 and was lucky to walk away from the last game. "I'm excited for those guys so they can silence the critics who are talking bad about them," Roethlisberger said. "I have all the faith in the world that they'll protect me."

 

There is an apparent willingness on Arians' part to use a bit more of the no-huddle offense, much to Roethlisberger's delight.

 

"It's just always been that when things go faster and get crazy and I'm calling my own plays, things seem to work better for me," Roethlisberger said.

 

But mostly, there is Big Ben.

 

It's fair to think Roethlisberger's greatest improvement will show in the interceptions he doesn't throw and the sacks he doesn't take. Arians said that's nothing more than maturity.

 

"Ben has great confidence in his ability to make a play when it looks like it might not be there," he said. "I never want to take that away from him. But, at the same time, he'll get better knowing when it's OK to throw the darn thing away. Why take a hit that you don't have to? Why force something and throw that interception?"

 

Roethlisberger threw three picks in the first half of the playoff loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars last season, a big reason the Steelers trailed by 18 points going into the fourth quarter. It didn't matter that he played the position as well as you can play it in the second half, completing 17 of 23 passes for 188 yards, leading four consecutive scoring drives and putting the Steelers ahead late. They ended up losing, 31-29.

 

"I'm ashamed of the way I played," Roethlisberger said afterward.

 

The man didn't back off those words much this week.

 

"It's one of those things that you're disappointed because you let a lot of guys down. But you can't dwell on it because, if you do, you're not going to get better. You let it go. It's over. I'm moving on."

 

And taking the Steelers with him.

 

Make no mistake about this:

 

Big Ben is their best chance of going a long way.

[alexgaddis]

Meh, I'd rather have Eli...

[yo mama]

Meh, I'd rather have Eli...

Woah, now. Let's not say things we can't take back.

Edited July 29, 2008 by yo mama

[Hat Trick]

I think he is going a little high, I passed on him when I thought about taking him in a recent draft, had he made it back to me I would have picked him. So basically he's going higher than I like. I really think he could repeat those numbers or come close to them, but with the one season being so much different than the others I'm not willing to risk it, show me one more season like last and I think we know his value is there for next year.

[MikesVikes]

Didn't Big Ben beg to have the offense opened up last year? I think he drops back a little but not back to stats of two years ago.

[Bronco Billy]

Most probably a top 10 QB, but an unlikely top 5 QB. He puts up surprisingly good QB efficiency/effectiveness numbers, but he's hampered by the PIT mindset of beating opponents by mashing them instead of finessing them, meaning he'll take a backseat to the D & running game a bit.

 

I think the coming year will see that change, some for the better and some for the worse. His O-line is deteriorating, meaning that the running game may struggle a bit more, but PIT is hoping that Mendenhall can boost it back up (I have my doubts). I'm guessing the running game takes a bit of a hit because of the combination of the O-line not being quite as good as it was and of Mendenhall not quite being the RB he's projected to be. That would indicate that PIT will need to move the ball through the air more to make up for the potential downslide of the running game, but the O-line won't give Roethlisberger as much time to throw, either.

 

I like the addition of Sweed and think he may be ready to play at the pro level a bit sooner than some may think, and I think Ben will look for him often in the red zone.

 

I think the D will probably be as strong as usual, with the LBs getting more athletic but a bit less experienced with the influx of Woodley & Timmons.

 

Combine all those factors, and I think we may see Ben shine again, and sit right on the fringe of the top 5 QBs, probably finishing just a hair outside. Considering where he's going in drafts, that's about commesurate with his ADP. I don't think he'll (or more importantly, the PIT O as a whole will) take the quantum leap that would propel him into the top 5 and make him a value play.

 

If you get him in the late 3rd to early 4th, where his ADP is, you're going to have to win your league from other positions. If you can get him in the 5th or later, he'll be a solid QB that will probably give you a little breathing room at either RB or WR.

[Menudo]

I snagged him in the 7th round of our Huddle Ladder draft and I'm happy with it. I expect similar numbers to last year.

[Caveman_Nick]

With a QB like Roethlisberger, I am drafting him to get the consistant production. It's a "fire and forget" draft pick. If you don't get a QB with his dependability, you end up playing the QB juggle game.

 

I don't mind the QB juggle game, but I think that this year in particular it looks like there is more talent available later in drafts. So getting Roethlisberger in round 4 is worth it to me, if he's around and nothing outstanding has slipped through the cracks.

[Outshined]

How much of this has to do with a new coach and the fact Coweher liked to pound the ball. I think it could continue...

[Savage Beatings]

With a QB like Roethlisberger, I am drafting him to get the consistant production. It's a "fire and forget" draft pick. If you don't get a QB with his dependability, you end up playing the QB juggle game.

 

I don't mind the QB juggle game, but I think that this year in particular it looks like there is more talent available later in drafts. So getting Roethlisberger in round 4 is worth it to me, if he's around and nothing outstanding has slipped through the cracks.

 

Woah, I was totally with you until you said round 4!

 

I think he will be an ok FF QB. Maybe right on the edge of a QB1 and a QB2. And with that, I wouldn't take him any higher than round 6 or 7.

[BeeR]

BR has never passed for more than 3500 yards

That's true, I haven't.

 

Agree Big Ben is going high - way too high IMO. Expecting another 07 is not exactly smart. IMO he'll be hard-pressed to crack 25 TDs. Pretty safe but not all that great of a QB - low-end starter.

[Skippy]

You are not going to get Roethlisberger in that 8th or 9th round this year. In fact I got him in the 12th last year as he was just flying way under the radar. This year he is anythig but under the radar. I won't use a 4th round pick on him but that isn't saying much as there isn't much, (QB wise), that I would use that 4th rounder on. Maybe I would grab him in the 5th if he is still there but that is about the only way that I am going to end up with him.

 

What I expect out of him this year is a lot of the same as last year. Maybe not 32 TD's but on the plus side of 25 I do see. The Steelers play a brutal schedule this year and that means that they are going to have to crank up that offense and score some points. The offensive line is a step back from what it was last year and that tells me that even moreso they are going to lean on Roethlisberger to sling the ball. Lots more no huddle with some great targets for Big Ben and plenty of big passing games are going to come out of Pittsburgh. Sweed isn't going to be that big a factor so don't go blowing your rookie hunch pick on him as his big days are down the road a bit but keep a sharp eye out for Heath Miller and Santonio Holmes this year.

[BeeR]

Does anyone see the potential -- out of need, desperation, and opportunity -- for him to put up even better numbers?

 

Big Ben putting up 30+ two yrs in a row? Even the best of em have a hard time doing that. I think not.

[Caveman_Nick]

Woah, I was totally with you until you said round 4!

 

I think he will be an ok FF QB. Maybe right on the edge of a QB1 and a QB2. And with that, I wouldn't take him any higher than round 6 or 7.

 

I think you are not paying attention to trends in the FF world. According to the ADP link on MFL.com, he has an ADP of 30. It's probable he will be gone before round 4 starts in a 12 team league.

 

That's: All scoring systems, Redraft, All types of drafts, and chosen in at least 65% Bump that 65% down to 30% and he still has an ADP of 30.

 

If you think you will get him after round 4, you're smoking something and I want a care package

Edited July 29, 2008 by Caveman_Nick

[Skippy]

If you think you will get him after round 4, you're smoking something and I want a care package

I agree. Everything that I have been paying attention to is telling me that early fouth is the latest you are going to get him and that may be late for a lot of leagues. That's why I won't get him but in those leagues that he does slip someone is going to be happy.

[BeeR]

I think you are not paying attention to trends in the FF world. According to the ADP link on MFL.com,

Which is meaningful if you play vs the whole FF world, I guess.

 

I've done a # of mocks and he's usually going in the 5th (occasionally 6th) in 10 teamers. Yeah that's an even smaller sample, but the point is (insert site's name here)'s ADP is not some set in stone FF bible.

 

 

That's: All scoring systems,

Meaning it's a huge generalization. Scoring system might make a diff.

 

It doesn't matter to me as someone else will definitely be my QB, but saying he can't be had in the 5th is no lock.