Steeltown Dre Posted September 4, 2008 Author Share Posted September 4, 2008 Wow Yep - that's what some spare time, intuition and a computer can do for you. We'll see how things turn out I guess... As for NYG and NE, I posted this last year: http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?s=&a...t&p=2160332 And what happened? Ind covered and Chi did not. Good to look back. That's why I skim my blog at the start of each season to get things to the front of my mind. You guys should spend some spare time doing the same, if you want to of course. I don't have many picks there, I posted them all here. What I had there were studies and analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bird Dog Posted September 4, 2008 Share Posted September 4, 2008 (edited) Remember, it's a LOOOONG season. Money management is the key. Nothing is a sure bet. Sorry for all the cliches, but they are true. I had a system last season that was 12-0 through mid-November. I didn't start laying heavy on it until December. It finished 21-1, but the point is, no single game or weekend or season should be "must win" for you. You should be able to lose a whole season's bankroll and not go slit your wrists. It's called proper money management. That said, you'd really have to try hard to lose a whole season's bankroll if you did use proper money management. But, remember, the season has barely started. This is 1 game out of 512 for the regular season. No to mention playoffs. Take your time and regardless of who you like tonight, be sharp w/ your $$. For sure, I agree. I'd like to also say that I placed last year over at wagerline in a pre-season contest and I got a jacket to prove it. Edited September 4, 2008 by Bird Dog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted September 4, 2008 Author Share Posted September 4, 2008 (edited) For sure, I agree. I'd like to also say that I placed last year over at wagerline in a pre-season contest and I got a jacket to prove it. A jacket is better than nothing. First place in the post-season netted me $600 cash (it was actually a personal check) but that's better than nothing too. Can't do much w/ $600 these days but every little bit helps.... that jacket can keep you warm, either as kindling or if you wear it. Edited September 4, 2008 by Steeltown Dre Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted September 4, 2008 Share Posted September 4, 2008 This game also feels fishy to me. Seems like the low line is begging you to take the GMen. I chickened out and played NYG (+6) Under (51.5) and South Carolina (even) in a 3 team teaser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted September 4, 2008 Author Share Posted September 4, 2008 This game also feels fishy to me. Seems like the low line is begging you to take the GMen. I chickened out and played NYG (+6) Under (51.5) and South Carolina (even) in a 3 team teaser. Trots - got to respond here... If you think this line is too low to suck you in, what did you think when you saw the Week 1 lines of these defending SB champs? Look at each SB winner, the opponent, and the line. 01 Ravens -9.5 vs. Chi W 17-6, ATS=W 02 Pats +2.5 vs. Pit W 30-14, ATS=W 03 Bucs +3 vs. Phi W 17-0, ATS=W 04 Pats -3 vs. Ind W 27-24, ATS=W 05 Pats -7.5 vs. Oak W 30-20, ATS=W 06 Steelers -1 vs. Mia W 28-17, ATS=W 07 Colts -6 vs NO W 41-10, ATS=W Do any of those lines look fishy to you? Looking for action on the other side? Preseason hype has surrounded the Giants in a negative way, from losing Osi and Strahan to other players lost from their SB team. Redskins march in w/ a new head coach, Jason Taylor, and ready to battle a division foe. To me, nothing fishy about the line whatsoever, based on present and past indications. Line has moved accordingly from -3.5 to -4.5. I think it's about right.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted September 4, 2008 Share Posted September 4, 2008 (edited) Good luck to all this season fellas!! am on NYG -4 too many ? marks with Zorn, and the new scheme- I think the Gmen will pick up where they left off and come out and open with a strong showing, while the Skins are gonna be slower to get things going in the right direction edit: ESPN just had a report that Jason Taylor may play, will be gametime decision and Shawn Springs may not play - fyi also playing Vandy +10 Edited September 4, 2008 by wildcat2334 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted September 4, 2008 Share Posted September 4, 2008 Wow, that is one hell of a run. I got in at NYG -4 but not so sure I would have gone much beyond that. But there is no way I would bet the Redskins tonight. Sometimes the "public" play is the right play, and people that try to read too much into the numbers miss out on an opportunity. I have seen a lot of people taking this contrairion stand with this game, but I just can't find any reason not to play the Giants. And the numbers Dre has provided only strengthen that position. But hey, it's week one. Anything can happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 Nice start Dre! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 Super Bowl champions who won the bowl and scored 20pts or less in the win are 7-0 ATS in week 1 the following season. The NFL has played Thursday Night games to kickoff Week 1 since 2002. That's 6 games. The Home team has gone 4-1-1 ATS in those games and the favored team has never lost that game. niceee dre, perfect way to start the season! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted September 5, 2008 Author Share Posted September 5, 2008 Thanks fellas. Starting out strong and if you caught the other trend on the total: "In the first H2H meeting, the Under is 3-1-1, going under by an avg of 7 points. The only over was an OT game that would have been under but for the OT. All games in NY were Under and went under the total by an avg of 12 points" You would have been even stronger. Let's carry the positive momentum into the weekend. Back later.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheikYerbuti Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 Thanks fellas. Starting out strong and if you caught the other trend on the total: "In the first H2H meeting, the Under is 3-1-1, going under by an avg of 7 points. The only over was an OT game that would have been under but for the OT. All games in NY were Under and went under the total by an avg of 12 points" You would have been even stronger. Let's carry the positive momentum into the weekend. Back later.... Jumped on the G-Men thanks to you (well, that and the fact that I'm a blind homer)! Looking forward to an AWE$OME year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 Nice work for those that stayed with the trend....getting a little lucky that two TD passes in the last minute were dropped helps, toos. Better to be lucky than good! Looking to rebound this weekend with two strong spread plays, and one total play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 Nice work for those that stayed with the trend....getting a little lucky that two TD passes in the last minute were dropped helps, toos. Better to be lucky than good! Looking to rebound this weekend with two strong spread plays, and one total play. cmon Swam- lucky? Wash only got on the board becuase of the phantom facemask and penalty yardage - NYG were the play.period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 (edited) cmon Swam- lucky? Wash only got on the board becuase of the phantom facemask and penalty yardage - NYG were the play.period. Correct, they dominated the 1st half. But bettors know too well that many times, a backdoor cover on a meaningless score often ruins a well thought-out wager. I am sure most folks on the NYG side last night were pretty thankful James Thrash can't catch. Based on the way NY played the 1st half, it should never of come to that. But it did. The fact that NY couldn't completely put away a pathetic Redskin team is also something to keep in mind in future weeks. They kicked three FGs, and couldn't muster a 2nd-half score. Ugly. Edited September 5, 2008 by i_am_the_swammi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 solid 2-0 start last night, also posted winner with Vandy +10 more college plays to come, which I am more confident in, and can find better value IMO NFL plays I am leaning towards - some scary road favs, I just think there are some teams in tough spots heading into week 1 and will take my chances against a rookie QB's making their first start. JAX -3 DET -3 CAR +10 - NO -3 CIN -1 thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hollywood_69 Posted September 6, 2008 Share Posted September 6, 2008 i teased and won last night, but i didn't see dre's picks? could you bold them please, sorry maybe i just totally missed them. I saw your leans buff and car but no thursday play.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted September 6, 2008 Share Posted September 6, 2008 I'm not really loving anything else on the board. I am leaning toward Tampa +3.5. That is the one game that piques my interest the most. In general for this week I would be especially leery of taking road favorites. Buffalo getting a point against a team that is traditionally horrible on the road in Seattle. Yeah, I THINK the Seahawks should win that game, but there is no way in hell I would bet on it. Same way with the Lions. They are 3 point favorites on the road at Atlanta. I wouldn't touch that game with a 10 foot pole. Then there are weather concerns for the northeast on Sunday (and before) so there is really no telling what kind of conditions they will be playing in. Not even thinking of playing any of those games. These are probably the plays I like the best, but not sure I will be playing any of them. TB +3.5, Hou +6.5, Ten +3.5, Indy -9.5, Mia +3.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coloradocoz1 Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 Weather forecast is predicting a 100% chance of rain for KC@NE and Rams@Eagles. What is your thoughts Dre on how we should look at these games. Is it a good time to jump on the unders? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 I like the under play for this week in general. But not really capping those games in particular. Miami +3 and Tenn. +3 is what I am going with for now. Going with the home doggies!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 Weather forecast is predicting a 100% chance of rain for KC@NE and Rams@Eagles. What is your thoughts Dre on how we should look at these games. Is it a good time to jump on the unders? The last time there were more overs than unders in Week 1 was 2002, when overs went 12-4. Since 2000, it was the only year w/ more overs. Since 2000, Unders have gone 74-52. Including 23-9 the last 2 seasons. If playing any Unders, I liked Philly and Dallas. Posted them on my site yesterday. Not going crazy on any of them, because they are not my systems, just my capping. Reasons why: A few reasons why I like the Dallas/Cleveland Under * In week 1 when the home team in a dog and there is a high total (over 45), the Under has gone 6-1 since 2002 and 10-1 since 1989. * Ignoring that the home team is a dog, Week 1 games w/ totals over 45 have produced Unders at a tune of 14-4 since 2002. A few reasons why I like Philly and lean towards the Under * St. Louis is 5-12-1 ATS when playing the NFC East, including 1-5 ATS since 2002, losing by an avg of 10 points and failing to cover by an avg of 7 points. * In addition, the Under in these games has gone 5-1, falling under the posted total by an avg of 7 points. * St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in it's Week 1 matchups since 2002, and and the Under is 5-1. The only two games under Linehan both went under. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hollywood_69 Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 did pretty well on these last season. 9-1 My Lock of the day INDY -9.5 I know its a late game, so if you need some action here's my 2 game 7 pt tease. Betting it as much as my lock. PATS -8.5 JAGS +4 I really love this play. 10 game 7 pt tease hou pitt over Saints Bills Pats Jax Philly Det Cin Indy NYJ Over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 Hey Dre. Good to see you back brother. Today I like Hou/Pitt under 43.5 and the Jags -3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 Hey Dre. Good to see you back brother. Today I like Hou/Pitt under 43.5 and the Jags -3 Thanks Whomper. Good luck on your plays today! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheikYerbuti Posted September 7, 2008 Share Posted September 7, 2008 I put a small bet in on the Jets. Not really a Favre bet, just a straight Miami fade. I don't expect much from them this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted September 7, 2008 Author Share Posted September 7, 2008 I don't think I posted these yet over here - wildcat - I like your Cin play as well - leaned to them in this game. Detroit Buffalo Carolina Philly (w/ a lean towards the Under) Dal/Cle Under First a word on a few of the reasons why I like Carolina + here. * Carolina is a very good road dog towards the beginning of the season - since 2002 in week 1-7 of the season, Carolina is 13-3 ATS, including 3-0 last season. * Carolina is very good at traveling to the West coast, and most games go over -though it has been 4 seasons since Carolina last made the trip west, they have gone 9-1 ATS when traveling to play either the Chargers, the Raiders, the Niners or the Seahawks. * With regard to the total in this game, in Carolina's West coast trips, the Over has gone 7-3. This conflicts with the fact that as a road dog in the early part of the season, the Under has gone 13-4, including 3-0 last year and 2-1 the year prior. Second, a few of the reasons why I like Buffalo. * When a West Coast team (SD, Sea, Oak, SF) travels to the East Coast (AFC East, NFC East) in the early part of the season as a Dog, they are a mere 2-11 SU since 2002. In these games, the Over has gone 9-4. * Seattle is 1-10 ATS overall vs. the AFC East in the last 10 years. In their games, the Over has gone 9-2. * Giving the over a good look here could be wise but is not the top play in this game. A few reasons why I like the Dallas/Cleveland Under * In week 1 when the home team in a dog and there is a high total (over 45), the Under has gone 6-1 since 2002 and 10-1 since 1989. * Ignoring that the home team is a dog, Week 1 games w/ totals over 45 have produced Unders at a tune of 14-4 since 2002. A few reasons why I like Philly and lean towards the Under * St. Louis is 5-12-1 ATS when playing the NFC East, including 1-5 ATS since 2002, losing by an avg of 10 points and failing to cover by an avg of 7 points. * In addition, the Under in these games has gone 5-1, falling under the posted total by an avg of 7 points. * St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in it's Week 1 matchups since 2002, and and the Under is 5-1. The only two games under Linehan both went under. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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