2008 Week 8 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

19-8 so far, 1-2 last weekend. Looking for a bounce back week after a very hot start that has cooled. Good luck this week guys.

[rattsass]

The board looks tough this week. Not really liking much of anything yet. Looking at San Fancisco and Tennessee as early leans, but not really committed to either yet. There are a few other games that interest me but none of these lines are screaming "mistake" to me.

[Steeltown Dre]

2008 Week 8 Plays:

 

Bal-7

Mia +2

NE-7

 

Writeups:

 

Bal-7

 

* Since 2004, the Raiders are 0-13 SU and 3-10 ATS on the road as a non-divisional underdog of 7+ points, losing by an average of 18 points.

* Since 2003, the Raiders are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in non-divisional games w/ a total under 39 points.

* In the last 10 seasons, Oakland is 0-10 vs teams in the Eastern time zone, including 2-8 ATS, when being made a TD+ dog. On average they have failed to cover an avg 10 point line by 8 points and lost by 18.

* After a win as a home underdog and going on the road as an underdog, the Raiders are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS since 1992, including 0-2 ATS the last two years. On average, they have failed to cover a 7 point line by an additional 8 points, losing SU by 15.

* Teams who won by 3 or less as home dogs last week and now are road dogs of 7+ are 2-18 SU and 4-16 ATS in the last 10 seasons, on avg losing by 16.

* The Ravens are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS after winning on the road as an underdog and then being favored at home, including 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS since 2006. Their only non-cover was as 12.5 point favorites in a divisional game in 2006, which they won by 10.

 

 

Remarkably, this is the only home game the Ravens play in a span of 7 full weeks. They played at home Oct 5 vs. the Titans, and have been on back to back road games. After this game, they have 3 straight road games, not returning to play another home game until the weekend before Thanksgiving. At home, the Ravens hold opponents to 11 points and put up 18. The Ravens are a very good team at home, and although Flacco has had his share of problems against top defenses, he has performed much better at home. He put together a nice road game in Miami, and I look for him to build off of that in the friendly confines of his home stadium.

 

A little statistical analysis which I don't normally provide: Oakland, while ranking #7 in ypr offensively, is not strong a rush team as it seems. They are definitely above avg, but not #7 in the league. They have faced, in order, the #31, 32, 17, 18, 19 ranked rushing defenses in terms of ypr prior to last week. Last week they faced the NYJ, who are #4, and Fargas averaged only 2.6 ypr and McFadden totaled 39 yards. And that was at home, which Oak won by 3 in OT and scored only 1 TD, despite being +3 in turnover margin and in the NYJ red zone 3 times. On the road, in Baltimore, Oakland will need a much better effort from their running game, especially when Bal leads the NFL in TOP (33:45 per game). Oak is 31st in the NFL in 3rd down conversions. Oakland is 0-9 and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road "sandwich games" (H-A-H). While Oakland performed very well in its first east coast game this season, I look for Baltimore to control the ball and the game, and will lay the touchdown.

 

Mia+2

 

* Buffalo is a mere 2-8 ATS since 1994 as a road favorite of less than 1 FG, including 0-4 SU and ATS since 1999.

* Divisional home dogs who are off back to back losses who face a team off a win and the line is less than a FG are 22-9 ATS since 1990. If the line is 1 or 1.5, the underdog is 12-3 ATS since 1990.

* In the first 12 weeks of the season, if one team has 3+ wins more than its opponent but is a road fav of less than 3 points, they are 2-9 SU and 2-9 ATS since 1991. The underdog has won SU by an average of 5 points.

* One other trend that Miami falls under has gone 26-8-1 ATS since 2002, including 16-2-1 ATS since 2005.

 

With the exception of the Houston loss, where Miami was up by 5 w/ 1:40 left and Hou drove the length of the field to win w/ 0:03 left, the three losses Miami had were to teams who were very solid against the run: Bal #1 ypr (allowed), NYJ #4 ypr, Ari #14 ypr. In addition, Ari was a road game and the 2nd game of the season. Miami has come a long way from week 2. Their victories have come against teams they can run the ball on, including NE #25 ypr (allowed) and SD #18 ypr.

 

Buffalo is #17 in the league in ypr allowed, right near SD. But on the road, they have faced Ari (#31 ypr), StL (#16 ypr, #25 ypg) and they got lucky to face Jac when all their O-Line was beaten up. Jac averaged less than 2 ypr in week 1 and against Buf week 2, 3.6 ypr. Chances are, Buffalo's overall ypr allowed would decrease even more if Jac had the same running game they have now. This will be the toughest test yet for Buffalo to stop Miami's rushing attack, which is not spectacular, but is averaging 112 ypg and 4.1 ypr, good for 16th in the league, despite facing Bal and NYJ, both in the top 4 for rushing defense allowed.

 

I see a 5-1 Buffalo team who is eager to get its first divisional game won, against a Miami team that is looking to stay above .500 and looking to prove that upstart Buffalo is not going to start the season 6-1 in their house. Miami is not as bad as the final score looked against Baltimore, in fact, teams who lost to the Ravens the week before and are now underdogs of less than 1 TD are 11-4 ATS since 2003. Baltimore simply makes teams look bad, especially teams who like to run the ball. It may not be the cleanest game of the day, but Miami certainly has the potential to win this game at home.

 

NE-7

 

* Teams who are off back to back underdog victories and are underdogs of 7+ points are 3-11-2 ATS since 1997 and 1-15 SU. On average they have lost by 14 points. If on the road, these teams are 0-14 SU and 2-10-2 ATS.

* Since 2006, teams on the road have gone 0-4-1 ATS and 0-5 SU.

* Teams who have been underdogs of 7+ points for 3 weeks in a row but who are off a home upset win and now on the road are 0-10 SU since 1990, losing by an average of 16 points. If the line is not a double digit spread, they are 1-5 ATS, losing by an average of 20 points.

* Teams who won as 7+ point home underdogs the week before by benefiting by a +4 turnover ratio are 0-5 ATS when playing as 6+ road dogs the following week. On average, failing to cover a 7+ point line by an additional 9 and losing by 16.

* Since taking over New England, the Patriots have had 15 weekends where they played back to back home games without a bye in between. Of those 15, six were non-divisional home games not on MNF. The Patriots went 5-1 ATS, their only non-cover was a 10 point win as a 13 point favorite in 2006.

* NE also falls into another trend which is 20-6 ATS since 2002 and is a perfect 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 4 seasons, including 6-1 ATS last season. On average covering a 10 point line and winning SU by 18 points.

 

I won't get into all the details of how St. Louis pulled out two remarkable underdog upsets, but suffice it to say, turnovers played a HUGE role. St. Louis on the road this season has generated, wait for it, ONE touchdown on a drive that started in their own territory. And in fact, that ONE TD came in Seattle, a team who is giving up 29 ppg. At the Redskins, the Rams scored their lone TD on a 76 yard fumble return. They had zero TDs at Philly. So you could also say that the Rams have scored exactly ONE offensive TD on the road this season, against the hapless Seahawks.

 

Since 2007, the Rams average less than 13 points on the road. Their 3 wins ATS out of 11 games came when they won the turnover battle, getting 2+ turnovers more than their opponent. If you take out the 37-29 upset victory over the Saints last season to earn their first win, the Rams scored less than 10 ppg average in their other 10 road games the past two seasons.

 

As far as the Rams playing outdoors, they have been extremely fortunate. Not that the weather will be bad in NE at kick (60 degrees) but the last time the Rams played in a northern city that did not have a dome and it was Week 7 or beyond was Buffalo and GB in back to back weeks in 2004. They lost both, scoring 17 in each and allowing 37 vs. Buf and 45 vs. GB.

 

Fortunately for NE, Cassel has only thrown 1 Int in his 3 home games. NE certainly is no world beater and I can see angles, particularly turnovers, which could lead to St. Louis winning SU. However, if the game plays out the way on average that it should, I think NE earns a cover and wins by 10.

[rattsass]

Very convincing write-up Dre. I think you are in for a good week.

 

After last weeks inevitable disaster I am sitting at 16-7-1.

 

Baltimore -7 I think Dre is right on the money with this one. My biggest play of the week. Raiders won't be able to get anything done today.

 

Tennessee -4 Pretty simple here in my opinion. The Titans have the perfect style of play to thwart the Colts. They are a great running team. The Colts are horrible against the run. The Titans control the clock, keep Manning on the sideline, the defense does the rest. The Titans are on a good run ATS and the Colts are not. I can't find single reason why you wouldn't bet the home team in this one.

 

Had leans toward Atl, SF and TB but just feel a lot better about the two I ended up on.

[Steelhead]

my book's got BAL at -9 now and I'm still leaning towards taking it Excellent writeup Dre!

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

from this mornings e-mail

 

Dre where did you find Car -4 ?

here is the best i could find

 

214 Carolina Panthers -5 ½ -118 -240 U: 43 -105

Edited October 26, 2008 by MustOfBeenDrunk

[THE SIX KINGS]

Early games

 

Baltimore -7

Miami +1.5

Washington -8

[wildcat2334]

from this mornings e-mail

 

Dre where did you find Car -4 ?

here is the best i could find

 

214 Carolina Panthers -5 ½ -118 -240 U: 43 -105

 

 

I got it at 5 myself- I think 4 may have been from earlier in the week bc I couldn't even sniff 4 anywhere this am- tough L but AZ kind of self destructed nd we would have been fortunate to cover that baby

[Steeltown Dre]

Car was -4 this AM at BetUS and WSEX to name a couple, and that was no juice. It was -4.5 several others where -4 would be buying a little juice.

 

It is a tough loss to lose by 1 on the spread, so I feel your pain guys.

 

Fortunately, it was a push for me, so I went 2-0-2 today. Easy winner in Bal, solid win in upset in Miami, and the NE and Car game were both back and forth heart attack games and I'll gladly take a push in both. NE game would have been much nicer but for Cassel's ints.

[Steelhead]

missed out on hitting NE by 1 (had -8) and missed on CAR. I hit MIA and thought i had placed a bet on BAL but apparently missed that one

[thevig]

dre - I have been following your picks for a couple of weeks now and I think you do an excellent job, I was hoping you would post your system plays on Tuesday like you had suggested earlier this week. Also I am having a hard time getting the lines that you show on your picks, so today for example I went with the ravens -9.5, miami +3 & NE - 8.5 at betus and I skipped the carolina pick because it was at 5.5 when I checked this morning , so I only went 2-1 missing on NE where you were able to push. Now don't get me wrong if I could go 2-1 every week I would be ecstatic.

[Steelhead]

dre - I have been following your picks for a couple of weeks now and I think you do an excellent job, I was hoping you would post your system plays on Tuesday like you had suggested earlier this week. Also I am having a hard time getting the lines that you show on your picks, so today for example I went with the ravens -9.5, miami +3 & NE - 8.5 at betus and I skipped the carolina pick because it was at 5.5 when I checked this morning , so I only went 2-1 missing on NE where you were able to push. Now don't get me wrong if I could go 2-1 every week I would be ecstatic.

 

+1. I'm only mad at myself for missing on BAL. Reading Dre's stuff it's amazing how much prep and thought have to go into his plays

[wildcat2334]

dre - I have been following your picks for a couple of weeks now and I think you do an excellent job, I was hoping you would post your system plays on Tuesday like you had suggested earlier this week. Also I am having a hard time getting the lines that you show on your picks, so today for example I went with the ravens -9.5, miami +3 & NE - 8.5 at betus and I skipped the carolina pick because it was at 5.5 when I checked this morning , so I only went 2-1 missing on NE where you were able to push. Now don't get me wrong if I could go 2-1 every week I would be ecstatic.

 

 

for the most part I believe Dre is posting lines from Fri when his picks go out - not as of Sun AM - you gotta take that into consideration for starters.

 

There was nowhere on the planet you could get NE -7 this am, so don't beat yerself up over it. The only way you are getting pushes today with NE or CAR is playing them early in the week before the line moves

[Steeltown Dre]

When my plays are sent out, I use lines that are available. So on Friday, you could get Bal-7, NE-7 and Mia+2.

 

This morning, you could get Car-4.

 

I can't control every book or line, so guys who can't get the lines I release in the e-mails will just have to use their own judgment. Not every week will have games like this, where they land on key numbers and the lines are key numbers. I think this may have been the first week that this has happened all season. Again, I make my best judgment on these plays and I'm not going to release NE-7 if it's -8.5 everywhere. If -7 is available at several shops, I will use -7. Some guys are more "small time" and only use one shop. Other guys who do this more seriously have several shops, so they can shop around. And most shops allow you to buy points. I don't advocate doing that in general, but there are situations when it is important to do so. So you need to decide on your own whether to make the play at the line you can get, buy points, or not make the play. Hopefully it works out better for you guys in the future, but even 2-1 isn't bad.

[brett21]

Any thoughts on tonights game? I know that the Titans seem to be the smart bet but for some reason my gut is leaning me towards the Colts to win this game tonight. Thoughts?

[no one]

Take the Giants.

[Mojo Rising]

Any thoughts on tonights game? I know that the Titans seem to be the smart bet but for some reason my gut is leaning me towards the Colts to win this game tonight. Thoughts?

 

yea i have a feeling the colts come out and play tonight......(then again Ive had such a bad week, maybe im the worst person to voice an opinion)

[wildcat2334]

Any thoughts on tonights game? I know that the Titans seem to be the smart bet but for some reason my gut is leaning me towards the Colts to win this game tonight. Thoughts?

 

 

am already on Tenn -4, but to be honest it seems a little too obvious to me. Indy is horrible against the run, has been poor on the road, and really hasn't looked good for most of the year.

 

Tenn at home, playing well absolutely looking to run the ball down Indy's throat -

 

this line seems off to me and am frankly pissed it isn't moving................

[Steeltown Dre]

this line seems off to me and am frankly pissed it isn't moving................

 

Just out of curiosity, what do you think the line should be?

 

Also, why do you think the line should be moving?

 

It opened at -3.5 and is now -4,

 

53% ATS and 30% ML on Ten

47% ATS and 70% ML on Ind

 

That's # of bets, not $, so it's not telling us too much, but given just that limited info, the action seems fairly balanced. Again, whether the $ is balanced is a totally different thing.

[wildcat2334]

Just out of curiosity, what do you think the line should be?

 

Also, why do you think the line should be moving?

 

It opened at -3.5 and is now -4,

 

53% ATS and 30% ML on Ten

47% ATS and 70% ML on Ind

 

That's # of bets, not $, so it's not telling us too much, but given just that limited info, the action seems fairly balanced. Again, whether the $ is balanced is a totally different thing.

 

yeah - not so much that - just more along the lines of the way I see the game is all, and Indy and Tenn's performance to date.

 

Input appreciated just bc I would feel confident playing Tenn up to -7. Indy has been piss poor all year for the most part, especially on the road - I mean their 2 road W were shaky at best, and flukes at worst. Minny had them beat - and so did HOU minus the Sage meltdown.

[rattsass]

Man, all of you guys sniffing around the Colts tonight, I just don't get it. Sometimes plays seem too obvious because they are. The books set the spread perfect for this game. Getting relatively equal action on both sides. If this was just "team x" coming to Tennessee with the numbers and performances that the Colts have put forth, it would be a 7 point spread.

 

In my eyes, this spread is a bit of a gift. The Colts are overvalued in the public's eye, and the Titans are undervalued, just as they have been during their extended good run ATS.

 

People look at this as a must-win game for the Colts, and it is. But just because a team has to win doesn't mean they will. Titans by 7.

Edited October 27, 2008 by rattsass

[wildcat2334]

Man, all of you guys sniffing around the Colts tonight, I just don't get it. Sometimes plays seem too obvious because they are. The books set the spread perfect for this game. Getting relatively equal action on both sides. If this was just "team x" coming to Tennessee with the numbers and performances that the Colts have put forth, it would be a 7 point spread.

 

In my eyes, this spread is a bit of a gift. The Colts are overvalued in the public's eye, and the Titans are undervalued, just as they have been during their extended good run ATS.

 

People look at this as a must-win game for the Colts, and it is. But just because a team has to win doesn't mean they will. Titans by 7.

 

 

werd

 

couldn't agree more - which is the reason I am a bit weary just bc the line does look like a gift.

 

Oh well, I am down on Tenn -4, hitting it pretty hard

 

go Titans

[Gopher]

Staying away from tonight's game... I agree that Tennessee should be able to cover the 4 points, and that's the bet I would take if I were to take any. However, I'm just a bit leery because of their lack of quality wins, even though they're 6-0. On the other hand, the Colts have been very unimpressive this year, and although the offensive line is finally getting healthy, they're still missing Addai and a large part of their secondary.

 

This week, I did well on teasers (I usually post my plays, but totally ran out of time this week... sorry).

 

WON

 

4-team 6-pt teaser (paid 3 to 1)

 

Buccaneers(TampaBay) 9

Cowboys(Dallas) 13

TBB +7.5

 

Cardinals(Arizona) 23

Panthers(Carolina) 27

CAR +0.5

 

Raiders(Oakland) 10

Ravens(Baltimore) 29

BAL -2.5

 

Rams(StLouis) 16

Patriots(NewEngland) 23

NEP -3

 

5-team 6-pt teaser (paid 4.5 to 1)

 

Bills(Buffalo) 16

Dolphins(Miami) 25

MIA +7.5

 

Buccaneers(TampaBay) 9

Cowboys(Dallas) 13

TBB +7.5

 

Chargers(SanDiego)(N) 32

Saints(NewOrleans)(N) 37

Over 40

 

Raiders(Oakland) 10

Ravens(Baltimore) 29

BAL -1.5

 

Rams(StLouis) 16

Patriots(NewEngland) 23

NEP -1.5

 

LOST

 

3-team 6.5-pt teaser

 

Bills(Buffalo) 16

Dolphins(Miami) 25

MIA +5.5

 

Chargers(SanDiego)(N) 32

Saints(NewOrleans)(N) 37

SDC +3.5 - LOST

 

Falcons(Atlanta) 14

Eagles(Philadelphia) 27

PHI -3

 

3-team 7-pt teaser

 

Bills(Buffalo) 16

Dolphins(Miami) 25

MIA +6

 

Chiefs(KansasCity) 24

Jets(NewYork) 28

NYJ -7 - LOST

 

Redskins(Washington) 25

Lions(Detroit) 17

DET +14.5

 

So, I was basically a Rivers INT and a Favre INT away from possibly going 4 for 4 on teasers this week. Still though, I realize that even 2 for 4 is pretty uncommon. I'm really picking and choosing which games I play, and trying to pair up the games which make the most sense, points-wise, when considering whether to go with 6, 6.5, 7, or even 10 points. I'm also playing one "unit" per play, for the most part, so the winners more than make up for the two that I lost. One other thing to keep in mind is that I'm not playing a ton of cash on these... this is more or less my own experiment on whether or not teasers can "work" for an entire season. I'll try to post my plays consistently going forward. I've done so most weeks, but time flew by this week, and I barely had time to make the plays, much less post them.

 

I've already made a couple for next week below:

 

5-team 6-pt teaser (pays 4.5 to 1)

 

Cowboys(Dallas) +14

DAL/NYG Over 35

Ravens(Baltimore) +7.5

Vikings(Minnesota) +1.5

HOU/MIN Over 39

 

AND

 

3-team 7-pt teaser (pays 7 to 5)

 

Seahawks(Seattle) +14

Raiders(Oakland) +10

Bengals(Cincinnati) +14.5

 

I'll keep you guys updated on my results weekly, going forward. If I have time, I might even be able to go back and post all of my parlays/teasers since week 1, and come up with a percentage won/lost, etc. I'm slightly down YTD, but a large part of that is the fact that I played quite a few college games early on, and lost the majority of them. Now, I'm strictly doing NFL, since it's what I follow much more closely of the two.

Edited October 27, 2008 by Gopher

[Mojo Rising]

the total is a very interesting 40.5.........anybody think it goes under?

[rattsass]

the total is a very interesting 40.5.........anybody think it goes under?

I would sure lean that way, but I can't stop thinking about the possibility that Johnson / and or / White break loose and score a couple of long ones against this sieve of a run defense. But the pace of the game should be favorable for that under and I would definitely lean that way myself if I were a totals player.