another down day in the market

[keggerz]

scary

fixed

[AtomicCEO]

On NPR yesterday they said if the big 3 auto makers go under, that's 3,000,000 jobs lost in the US. So, there's 1% of the US population right there.

 

I think it's silly to think that if those three carmakers go under, that other car makers won't expand to fill the gap they left. People are still going to need to drive.

[tonorator]

I think it's silly to think that if those three carmakers go under, that other car makers won't expand to fill the gap they left. People are still going to need to drive.

 

there are still a ton or car makers out there, even without the big 3. i would think with people delaying new vehicle purchases big time it would cause quite a glut of inventory. i'm not sure many of the auto firms can sustain an extended downturn.

[Rebellab]

Ok, on the car thing. Car makers are going to layoff employees or go under. There will be lose of inventory and then when people start to stick there head above the sand there will not be enough cars etc. This is a little scary in all aspects.

 

Either way more jobless claims will be made in the short term. With something by Tonorator in another thread talking about the false sense of growth with credit and the rise in the stock market. Here is my question... Have we created many more people than we have jobs for a very long stretch of time? If you figure that the last 5 years minimum has all been smoke and mirrors, than wouldn't it be correct to say that the money was over stretched as well as employment. If the large run up in stocks would not have happened, would millions of those jobs existed? Will some of these people ever have a job again?

[tonorator]

Ok, on the car thing. Car makers are going to layoff employees or go under. There will be lose of inventory and then when people start to stick there head above the sand there will not be enough cars etc. This is a little scary in all aspects.

 

Either way more jobless claims will be made in the short term. With something by Tonorator in another thread talking about the false sense of growth with credit and the rise in the stock market. Here is my question... Have we created many more people than we have jobs for a very long stretch of time? If you figure that the last 5 years minimum has all been smoke and mirrors, than wouldn't it be correct to say that the money was over stretched as well as employment. If the large run up in stocks would not have happened, would millions of those jobs existed? Will some of these people ever have a job again?

 

great questions. i think they will have jobs again, in different industries. the question is how fast. i have no doubt that the false sense of prosperity that we all enjoyed for a couple of decades lead to many new jobs and positions being created that can no longer be sustained. instead of going where they were truly needed or to a place of more stability, they went into positions that were not built to last. now a shift will happen and the question is how well people saw it coming and how high they were able to build their reserves while things were "good."

 

i think the energy field will become our new information age, fueling much of the growth in jobs and expansion. this ain't going to come on, however, with internet speed.

[westvirginia]

I listened to some Asian economists having a round table discussion last weekend and they basically said:

 

Large companies have more inventory on hand than the value of their stock in the market (therefore the bottom has to be near)

 

As soon as the great majority of amatuer stock players, sell out in a panic the market should calm down with professionals in charge.

 

I liked what they were saying so I believe them.

 

 

I might be wrong (and Lord knows it's happened before) but this seems stupid on it's face to me (I know you're only repeating it Jack - not calling you stupid). That large inventory is valued at cost. If no one can borrow, what will the demand be for that product (let's take the value of GM's SUV inventory, for instance - I can see some of that going for $.50 on the dollar)? Stock is typically valued on a risk/reward, what you think you'll make on your investment. Between uncertainty, inflation/deflation, credit cruch, etc., those inventories probably aren't worth their paper valuation right now. At least, no one can say with any certainty WHAT they're worth right now, right?

 

Muck, wiegie, Bueller? Am I missing something?

[Ursa Majoris]

As soon as the great majority of amatuer stock players, sell out in a panic the market should calm down with professionals in charge.

I don't believe for a second that more than 2% of the world's stocks are owned by "amateurs". As for the professionals, it's them that got us here in the first place.

[wiegie]

I'm not claiming to be smarter than anybody by a long-shot, but I am very worried about the overall labor market. I would be very happily surprised if unemployment rates topped out at under 8% and I would not be overly shocked if they actually went above 10%. And I think the poor labor market is going to be around for at least a year if not longer. (I am somewhat of a pessimist at heart, but I have told my siblings, who are in procyclical industries, that they really need to be prepared for the worst.)

well, hell, if Perch is going to boast about his forecasts, I will too