Steeltown Dre Posted December 31, 2008 Share Posted December 31, 2008 Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are. Well guys, another season has come and gone and I am very thankful for another successful year and I hope you have had success as well. I know many of you bet on College FB, so tomorrow is a big day and I hope you do quite well. This week we've got 4 home dogs for the first time in as long as I can remember. They set the lines based on public perception, and the oddsmakers are rarely wrong in determining public perception. Same story this week, as the public is wagering more on the favorites than the home dogs. This makes for some very short lines and great betting opportunities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 31, 2008 Share Posted December 31, 2008 I truly hope nobody gets sucked in by what the Chargers did to those sorry-assed Broncos last week. The spread should be 3 for this game. The Colts are on sale this week. I'm already in at COLTS-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted December 31, 2008 Share Posted December 31, 2008 I truly hope nobody gets sucked in by what the Chargers did to those sorry-assed Broncos last week. The spread should be 3 for this game. The Colts are on sale this week. I'm already in at COLTS-1 +1 also like the Vikes + 3 i believe the Colts should be closer to a 6-1/2 favorite i know the chargers have taken 3 of the last 4 from the colts but i don't go with trends, if i did i would of missed the over in the skins game last week before last week the under won 14 of 16 times this year when the skins played. so this weekend i'm on the Colts, Vikes the over in the Atl/Arz game & leaning on the over in the Vikes / Philly game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 1, 2009 Author Share Posted January 1, 2009 i believe the Colts should be closer to a 6-1/2 favorite As much as love what you share w/ this thread, I've got to disagree here. I have spreadsheets back to 92 for postseason, and there have been only 12 road favorites in those 16 years. The Average road favorite line was -2.5, and the max was -5.5 and that was Rams of 2001 over the Saints. The Rams had just won as a 3.5 point favorite IN New Orleans by 5 in Week 17, and were now favored by 5.5 the following week, which they lost SU by 3. Just because you think the Colts should win by 7 does not mean that Vegas should have made them 1 point favorites. Also, the line is based on public opinion, and the Colts may have been made a larger favorite had SD not completely stomped the Broncos on Sunday Night National TV, and as "hot" as Indy is (9-0 L9 games), the Chargers have won 4 in a row by an avg of 19 points, including its 2 home games by an avg of 29 points. I'm not saying the line is right or wrong, I am just saying there is no way the line would be Colts -6.5. Also, the Colts have won their last 4 road games (since week 10), but have won by 4, 3, 4 and 7. To Pit, SD, Cle and Jac. And in 3 of the 4 games, they were tied or losing in the 4th quarter and scored enough 4th quarter points to win (tied to Pit entering the 4th, losing by 3 to Cle entering the 4th, and losing by 10 to Jac entering the 4th). So they have not exactly been "road worthy" of such a hefty number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 1, 2009 Author Share Posted January 1, 2009 Line in SD dropping to pick from SD+1... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted January 1, 2009 Share Posted January 1, 2009 (edited) Line in SD dropping to pick from SD+1... No, they are not dropping. they opened @ pick -120 then went to as high as -1.5 and are back to were they opened six of one half dozen of the other, yes they dropped from this morning but not from were they opened. http://lines.therx.com/livelines/odds/line...fl&period=0 Edited January 1, 2009 by MustOfBeenDrunk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted January 1, 2009 Author Share Posted January 1, 2009 No, they are not dropping. they opened @ pick -120 then went to as high as -1.5 and are back to were they opened six of one half dozen of the other, yes they dropped from this morning but not from were they opened. http://lines.therx.com/livelines/odds/line...fl&period=0 Right - I was just indicating that heavier $ was coming in on SD despite the larger %s on Ind, thus the line dropping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 Wow ,, must say this room has gotten very quiet entering the playoffs Anyway i'm adding a 3-team 7 point teaser to the mix Falcons + 5 Colts + 7 Vikings + 4 i feel confident in all my wagers this weekend. the only game i have no investment in either on the sides or over / under is the Miami / Baltimore game. i can see either team winning this game and would not be surprised by either a high scoring or a 10 to 6 ending. the money and wager amounts seem to be coming in heavy on Baltimore and they have come up a full point and i believe they deserve the action they are taking. Still i will just sit and enjoy this one with no wagering interest. Plus for some reason i'm kind of hoping Pennington pulls this one out. I still wounder how the Steelers would of fared if they hadn't passed on him in the rookie draft. I believe the had the 16th or 17th pick that year and passed on him and rolled the dice with Slash. he would of fit perfect with that offense. good luck to all this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmypg Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 I'm on an awful betting streak. These bowl games aren't as easy as I thought. As for the NFL this weekend I only really like 2. I love Indy over SD & I like Atlanta over Zona. I don't see SD's D stopping Manning enough to win. I also feel like Zona stinks so they lose by 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 Wow ,, must say this room has gotten very quiet entering the playoffs Anyway i'm adding a 3-team 7 point teaser to the mix Falcons + 5 Colts + 7 Vikings + 4 i feel confident in all my wagers this weekend. the only game i have no investment in either on the sides or over / under is the Miami / Baltimore game. i can see either team winning this game and would not be surprised by either a high scoring or a 10 to 6 ending. the money and wager amounts seem to be coming in heavy on Baltimore and they have come up a full point and i believe they deserve the action they are taking. Still i will just sit and enjoy this one with no wagering interest. Plus for some reason i'm kind of hoping Pennington pulls this one out. I still wounder how the Steelers would of fared if they hadn't passed on him in the rookie draft. I believe the had the 16th or 17th pick that year and passed on him and rolled the dice with Slash. he would of fit perfect with that offense. good luck to all this weekend. Wouldn't the Vikings line be MIN +10? Or are you on the Eagles? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 I will be on the Cards +2 even with the poor finish to the season- they are just too tough at home. Throw in a rookie QB even tho he is a stud on the road in his first playoff start??? AZ +2 Indy -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 For Saturday, I've got: Colts 0 Falcons -2.5 Colts - Don't think this is as obvious as some people... the Chargers run over the last 3-4 weeks (margin of victory, etc.) has been nearly as impressive as the Colts winning 9 straight, especially when you consider that the Colts trailed late in several of their recent wins. However, the Colts defense being fairly healthy, combined with the fact that several of the Chargers' offensive weapons (Gates, LT) are banged up, makes me lean towards the Colts in this one. The Colts have been surprised/upset by the Chargers enough in the past (including last year's playoff game at home) to prevent from underestimating the Chargers' ability to win this game. They'll take them seriously, and Manning will lead them to yet another late game-winning drive. Colts 31 Chargers 28. Falcons - They're a much better team at home, but they've also had a couple of fairly impressive wins on the road. They beat GB early in the season at Lambeau, and then handled the Vikings in MIN. I think they'll pound the Turner/Norwood combination at Arizona, and try to dominate time of possession, limiting Warner's touches. I expect Atlanta to get up early, and then their defense to make a couple of big plays when Arizona is in catch-up mode, similar to what happened to Minnesota. Falcons 30 Cardinals 20. I've also got a couple of small wagers going today: 6.5 Point Teaser (6 Teams) EastCarolina +3.5 ECU/KY Over 35 Mississippi +11 Miss/TTU Under 72.5 Utah +16 Utah/ALA Over 39 Parlay (3 Team money line) EastCarolina -145 TexasTech -180 Alabama -380 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 Putting a small play on AZ today. The Cardinals have done nothing to instill a lot of confidence down the stretch, but I agree that it is a tall order for a rookie QB to go on the road and win his first playoff game. I think Atlanta a a better balanced team, and they should win this game, I just don't think they will. Expect the Cardinals to put forth their best effort in this one. It will no doubt be the high point of their season, cuz after this one they are dead meat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jelap1 Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 Putting a small play on AZ today. The Cardinals have done nothing to instill a lot of confidence down the stretch, but I agree that it is a tall order for a rookie QB to go on the road and win his first playoff game. I think Atlanta a a better balanced team, and they should win this game, I just don't think they will. Expect the Cardinals to put forth their best effort in this one. It will no doubt be the high point of their season, cuz after this one they are dead meat. I think everyone is with you… Yesterday at my book the line on Arizona was +2.5. This morning at 9am, it was 0. And right now, it’s sitting at -1.5. It seems like everyone is on the cards. Which is why I’m going the other way, (despite my rules about betting rookie qb’s on the road in the playoffs). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 I think everyone is with you… Yesterday at my book the line on Arizona was +2.5. This morning at 9am, it was 0. And right now, it’s sitting at -1.5. It seems like everyone is on the cards. Which is why I’m going the other way, (despite my rules about betting rookie qb’s on the road in the playoffs). The line movement isn't of much concern to me. This is probably a field goal game one way or the other. The Cards probably can't shut down the Falcons run game, and the Falcons won't be able to shut down the Cards pasing game. Should be a fun game. That's why I said I was playing it small. To make sure it stays fun not matter how it turns out. If Indy loses on the other hand...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 planned on laying out some dough today for the first time in a long time and now Dre's picks are pay only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 No more college for me (after picking literally every game wrong yesterday). I'm still sticking with the Falcons and Colts for today. Wish I had waited and gotten Atlanta at a pick em, though, instead of -2.5. This is a different Cardinals team than the one we saw early in the year beat Dallas, etc. They've abandoned the run almost entirely the past few games, and that's not a good sign, heading into the playoffs. I think this game could very well be decided early, depending on which team gets out to an early lead. Both teams tend to play pretty well with a lead, and not so good from behind. I'm thinking one of them gets out to an early 10-14 point lead, and the other never catches up. I'm betting it's the team with the more well-rounded offense (and significantly better running game). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 Ouch. I sure didn't get much mileage out of that Colts futures bet. A typical day. Hit good on the game I played small and bombed on the big one. Back to the drawing board. I think we all saw yesterday just how much impact being the home team has on the outcomes of these games. The Colts are clearly a better team than the Chargers, and I dare say the Falcons are a better team than the Cardinals. Just not on the road. And I think the same thing applies today. The Ravens are superior to the Dolphins, and the Eagles (loaded with playoff experience) are probably better than the Vikings. Just not on the road. To me, it is insane to lay 3 /2 points on the Ravens in this spot. That hook will kill you every time. Even if you are right about the winner you will probably get hooked. The same thing that applied to Ryan applies here today to Flacco. All it takes is a rookie mistake or two in the big spot to turn the game. I like the Ravens a lot. I think they have a chance to win this thing outright, but no way in hell I would lay 3.5 points on it. This game is a pick'em to me, so the value clearly is with the Dolphins. I would love to think that the Eagles defense will do what they do, and blitz TJax into oblivion. I would love to think that McNabb will have one of his "on" games and rip the Vikings D to shreds. I would love to think that what I believe to be a better coached, more experienced, playoff tested team would do what they are capable of, and beat the Vikings today. But what i want to happen in the playoffs rarely does. The reality is, the Vikings at home, in that noisemaker, will probably lay the Eagles to waste today. I do not understand the spread. This is another game that should be a pick'em. Value lies with the Vikings plus the points. This is an interesting day. I might be having an epiphany. I like the Ravens and Eagles. I want them to win. I think they are the better teams playing. But the gambler in me has seen this movie too many times before. Looks like a public money slaughter day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 2-1 yesterday.....didn't post them, so won't include them in my 12-2-1 spread run in the last 5 weeks. Colts cost me last night, but the Arizona and ARZ/over teaser were winners. Today, I am on MIA and the under in the early game. Home teams have showed up, and even Matt Ryan showed his rookie jitters yesterday. Flacco will do the same in a hostile enviornment. The unsung hero of the Dolphins has been their defense, and they will stuff the Ravens run, force Flacco to make some bad decisions, and I feel, lead the Phins to a relatively easy win. Dolphins 20, Ravens 9. In the late game, I love the Eagles. Reid is 6-0 in playoff openers (though all have been at home)...but what it tells me is that he can gameplan for a particular opponent very well. While Childress may know some of the Eagles offensive tendencies, the same can be said for the Eagles knowing the Vikes. Call it a wash. I'll take McNabb and and Eagles team that is rolling into the playoffs over a Vikings team that struggled to clinch their division over a team of Giants back-ups. The Eagles defense will force some turnovers, and take advantage of some generous field positon. And I have a feeling DeSean Jackson will make the Vikings pay for having the worst special teams in the NFL this year. Eagles 27, Vikings 21. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPW Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 Here are some interesting numbers for straight-up comparison. Eagles Points Scored 2008: Home- Avg: 31.25, Mean 30.5 Road- Avg:20.75, Mean 20.0 Eagles Opponents Points Scored 2008: Home- Avg: 21.38, Mean 19.0 Road- Avg: 14.75, Mean 12.0 Ravens Points Scored 2008: Home- Avg: 22.5, Mean 25.5 Road- Avg: 25.63, Mean 30.0 Ravens Opponents Points Scored 2008: Home- Avg: 20.5, Mean 23.5 Road- Avg: 10.0, Mean 10.0 What does this tell me? The Ravens were a better road team than the Eagles in 2008. Their away record of 5-3 versus Philadelphia's away record of 3-4-1 would also support this conclusion. If I had to gamble on one of the home dog teams in a straight-up pick today, I would take Minnesota rather than Miami. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 Brutal past couple of days for me. I agree that giving 3.5 and taking the Ravens is not the way to go today. However, I still thought they would find a way to win or, at worst, lose by a FG. Went with a 7-pt teaser on the BAL-MIA game: BAL +3.5 Under 45 Looking good so far, and I have yet to decide on the PHI/MIN game. Leaning towards just staying away and enjoying cheering for MIN (without any sort of side interest in the line or O/U involved). My gut says that the Vikes win this game, and the inconsistent Eagles have another one of their off-games like they did two weeks ago against WAS, but I could just as easily see MIN getting blown out today. Still not sure which way I'll go, if any. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 Wow. I wish I had known that the Dolphins planned on letting the Ravens go "wounded duck hunting" on Pennington today. Horrible decision that cost them the game. I sure thought they were smarter than that. Well, the way my day is going I would say the Eagles are $$. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 I think the Vikings defense will cause some problems of their own for McNabb... Two plays: MIN (money line) 6.5 pt teaser- MIN +10 Over 34.5 Good luck, everyone... And, go Vikings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 Alright, I am sick of this crap. I realize I know nothing. I think the Vikings are the play so I am on the Eagles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 split my early wagers....Ravens showed up, though I hit the under just barely. Eagles heavy -3 2-team tease: Vikings +9/under 47 Parlay: Eagles -3/Under 41 Go Birds!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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