Some interestsing economic numbers

[bushwacked]

The Obama Plan is working

 

The judgment of the financial indexes has turned resoundingly positive. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is up more than 74% from its recessionary low in March 2009. Corporate bonds have been rallying for a year. Commodity prices have surged. International currency markets have been bullish on the dollar for months, raising it by almost 10% since Nov. 25 against a basket of six major currencies. Housing prices have stabilized. Mortgage rates are low. "We've had a phenomenal run in asset classes across the board," says Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., an institutional trading firm in New York. "If Obama was a Republican, we would hear a never-ending drumbeat of news stories about markets voting in favor of the President."

 

Little more than a year ago, financial markets were in turmoil, major auto companies were on the verge of collapse and economists such as Paul Krugman were worried about the U.S. slumbering through a Japan-like Lost Decade. While no one would claim that all the pain is past or the danger gone, the economy is growing again, jumping to a 5.6% annualized growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2009 as businesses finally restocked their inventories. The consensus view now calls for 3% growth this year, significantly higher than the 2.1 % estimate for 2010 that economists surveyed by Bloomberg News saw coming when Obama first moved into the Oval Office. The U.S. manufacturing sector has expanded for eight straight months, the Business Roundtable's measure of CEO optimism reached its highest level since early 2006, and in March the economy added 162,000 jobs—more than it had during any month in the past three years. "There is more business confidence out there," says Boeing (BA) CEO Jim McNerney. "This Administration deserves significant credit."

 

 

Economic stabilization has not been Obama's handiwork alone. In the months before he took office, President George W. Bush and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson halted a market free fall with the bank bailout. Obama's stimulus complemented the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary easing. To build a floor for housing prices, the Fed intervened to support mortgage markets and the White House pledged unlimited financial backing for mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE), and rolled out tax credits for home buyers and mortgage modification programs to stave off foreclosures. It's the entire package that has made the difference.

 

"When you take it all together, the response was massive, unprecedented, and ultimately successful," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com (MCO). Even Obama critics like Phil Swagel, assistant Treasury secretary for economic policy under George W. Bush, acknowledge that White House policies have been successful. "They could have done a better job" by spending more of the stimulus on corporate tax cuts to boost hiring and investment, says Swagel, now an economics professor at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business. "But their economic policies, including the stimulus, have helped move the economy in the right direction."

 

While jobs have been slow to return, the country has experienced "an incredible productivity boom" that strengthens the economy for an expansion, says Greenhaus of Miller Tabak. Labor productivity, or worker output per hour, grew at a 6.9% annual pace in the fourth quarter, capping the biggest one-year gain since 2002. Over the long run, productivity growth is what raises living standards. Corporate profits also have been rising, up 8% in the fourth quarter, putting businesses on a sounder financial foundation to invest and hire as customers return. The public, alas, does not see the signs of life that economists do, as the downbeat views in the Bloomberg poll demonstrate. And as long as job security remains a concern, it's easy to understand why psychology may trump data.

[moneymakers]

The Obama Plan is working

 

 

[evil_gop_liars]

The economy had no place to go but up.

 

Obama slowed the natural upness of the economy.

[dmarc117]

the boeing guy patting obama on the back after the administration just handed them the airforce tanker deal. shocking.

[SEC=UGA]

"Labor productivity, or worker output per hour, grew at a 6.9% annual pace in the fourth quarter, capping the biggest one-year gain since 2002. Over the long run, productivity growth is what raises living standards. Corporate profits also have been rising, up 8% in the fourth quarter, putting businesses on a sounder financial foundation to invest and hire as customers return."

 

 

One big problem with this... Certain business sectors are beginning to see an uptick in business. However, this increased productivity doesn't bode well for hiring. The reason worker productivity is increasing is due to companies still sitting on the fence trying to determine if the economy is going to turn or not. They are refusing to hire because they are waiting for more stability and thus they are completing the work with the employees that they currently have on staff, thus productivity does have a tendency to increase.

 

Further, profits are up in certain sectors because of the lower staffing levels and cuts in benefits to employees.

 

In the overall picture, this has been a very slow turnaround and will continue to be a slow turnaround. There is no "new" technology currently to spur growth, as the .com/computer industry did in the 90's. There is no housing/construction boom on the horizon like the one hat drove the economy from 03-08. What we have is an economy that is going to creep back to a state of normalcy with minimal job growth over the next 2 years.

 

I just hope that we have put enough money aside to keep us afloat for another 16 months... barring any unforseen cash outlays, we should be ok. But, damn construction is slow and margins are dismal.

[Perchoutofwater]

"Labor productivity, or worker output per hour, grew at a 6.9% annual pace in the fourth quarter, capping the biggest one-year gain since 2002. Over the long run, productivity growth is what raises living standards. Corporate profits also have been rising, up 8% in the fourth quarter, putting businesses on a sounder financial foundation to invest and hire as customers return."

 

 

One big problem with this... Certain business sectors are beginning to see an uptick in business. However, this increased productivity doesn't bode well for hiring. The reason worker productivity is increasing is due to companies still sitting on the fence trying to determine if the economy is going to turn or not. They are refusing to hire because they are waiting for more stability and thus they are completing the work with the employees that they currently have on staff, thus productivity does have a tendency to increase.

 

Further, profits are up in certain sectors because of the lower staffing levels and cuts in benefits to employees.

 

In the overall picture, this has been a very slow turnaround and will continue to be a slow turnaround. There is no "new" technology currently to spur growth, as the .com/computer industry did in the 90's. There is no housing/construction boom on the horizon like the one hat drove the economy from 03-08. What we have is an economy that is going to creep back to a state of normalcy with minimal job growth over the next 2 years.

 

I just hope that we have put enough money aside to keep us afloat for another 16 months... barring any unforseen cash outlays, we should be ok. But, damn construction is slow and margins are dismal.

 

Pretty much the way I look at it.

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Is-The-New-B...445307.html?x=0

[Brentastic]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Is-The-New-B...445307.html?x=0

Wow, are you finally convinced we have a much bigger decline to go? Your article supports what I've been saying and it brings up a lot of valid points. For a novice investor, volume is a very good indicator to tell what is real or not. Bottom line - we are not in a real recovery.

[Ursa Majoris]

the boeing guy patting obama on the back after the administration just handed them the airforce tanker deal. shocking.

If they'd given it to Airbus or some other foreign company, you'd have been happy then, right? And did you read this bit:

 

"We've had a phenomenal run in asset classes across the board," says Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., an institutional trading firm in New York. "If Obama was a Republican, we would hear a never-ending drumbeat of news stories about markets voting in favor of the President."

[dmarc117]

If they'd given it to Airbus or some other foreign company, you'd have been happy then, right? And did you read this bit:

 

"We've had a phenomenal run in asset classes across the board," says Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., an institutional trading firm in New York. "If Obama was a Republican, we would hear a never-ending drumbeat of news stories about markets voting in favor of the President."

 

 

airbus won the deal fair and square. so i have no beef. its called competition. and the airbus plane wouldve been made in the states too, so dont hand me the lost jobs poop.