muck Posted November 4, 2010 Share Posted November 4, 2010 ... close to setting new highs for the year ... seems to be pretty much an "as expected" response to the vote and the Fed actions. Thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimC Posted November 4, 2010 Share Posted November 4, 2010 Thoughts? Where else would you invest your money in this artificially manipulated market and get more than .01%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 4, 2010 Author Share Posted November 4, 2010 (edited) Well, if we have sufficient deflation, arguably in short-term money markets. ...in all seriousness, that's part of the thinking too...and why Warren Buffett has been touting being long the market ("why would you ever want to own bonds now?") for the last several months. Edited November 4, 2010 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted November 4, 2010 Share Posted November 4, 2010 The number of dmarc posts is inversely proportional to the rising of the stock market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Irish Doggy Posted November 4, 2010 Share Posted November 4, 2010 As I said previously, I see more reason for cautious optimism than rampant pessimism. When many were panicking in early June, early July, and late August I was buying. I'm feeling pretty good these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy Neutron Posted November 4, 2010 Share Posted November 4, 2010 (edited) As I said previously, I see more reason for cautious optimism than rampant pessimism. When many were panicking in early June, early July, and late August I was buying. I'm feeling pretty good these days. I am happy to report that my 401k is at an all time high. I have no reason, however, to suspect we're on a long gradual climb. I'm waiting for the proverbial other shoe to drop, as there are too many outstanding negative issues out there that will bring the market crashing back down. I simply have no idea when that will be. Edited November 4, 2010 by Jimmy Neutron Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted November 4, 2010 Share Posted November 4, 2010 I'm not going to predict when the market will tank anymore (but it will tank). My timing has been horrid - the Fed's money printing has convinced enough investors to keep buying and it's not wise to fight the Fed. Being a bear right now is extremely tough. However, every technical indicator is pointing to a reversal and showing that the market is extremely over-bought. I'm patiently waiting but it's getting damn frustrating. The only thing I can say confidently is that buying now is NOT a smart trade in any way, shape or form. It's not a matter of IF the market will drop, but WHEN. Don't fight the Fed (by shorting), but don't start buying either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted November 4, 2010 Share Posted November 4, 2010 (edited) I am happy to report that my 401k is at an all time high. I have no reason, however, to suspect we're on a long gradual climb. I'm waiting for the proverbial other shoe to drop, as there are too many outstanding negative issues out there that will bring the market crashing back down. I simply have no idea when that will be. The disconnect is this: while PEOPLE are suffering BUSINESS remains profitable. That profitability is a result of: (1) aggressive cost cutting, mostly from laying people off and keeping wages in check; (2) aggressive deleveraging; and (3) having lots of surplus cash laying around ready to take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves that ISN'T being spent on hiring or buying stuff. If it seems like there is a disconnect between the stock market growth and the average person's financial well being, its because there is one. This phenomenon is a big part of what's fueling our "jobless recovery." That said, actual growth will require increases in personal and business sector spending. But that isn't going to happen anytime soon, and it won't happen dramatically no matter what the Fed does. People without jobs obviously can't (and shouldn't) spend more. And those who have jobs are spending their money deleveraging instead of on consumer purchases. But that will change as people achieve - and get comfortable with - their more conservative looking balances sheets and debt-to-income ratios. Believe it or not, we're on the right track to recovery. Once we start to feel more secure, we'll start to spend more. Slowly. That spending will result in more jobs. Slowly. Its going to be slow, steady road to recovery and anyone who says different - or expects different - is a fool. ETA: in the mean time, absent big changes in inflation (or deflation) I don't expect dramatic changes in the equity markets. If anything, a lot of cash that has been on the sidelines for the last few years is starting to come back in, which will only further prop up equity markets. I much more worried about people with substantial existing positions in the bond market. Edited November 4, 2010 by yo mama Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC=UGA Posted November 4, 2010 Share Posted November 4, 2010 The disconnect is this: while PEOPLE are suffering BUSINESS remains profitable. For many of the large publicly traded companies, yes... What you are leaving out and why we are seeing a 'Jobless recovery" is that small businesses are going out of business daily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yo mama Posted November 4, 2010 Share Posted November 4, 2010 For many of the large publicly traded companies, yes... What you are leaving out and why we are seeing a 'Jobless recovery" is that small businesses are going out of business daily. Small businesses go out of business daily in any economy. Things are just harder now, but they aren't impossible. In any event, small business failures don't really impact the SP500, which is another reason the stock market can do well even if everyday jerkoffs like you and me are feeling pinched. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC=UGA Posted November 4, 2010 Share Posted November 4, 2010 Small businesses go out of business daily in any economy. Things are just harder now, but they aren't impossible. In any event, small business failures don't really impact the SP500, which is another reason the stock market can do well even if everyday jerkoffs like you and me are feeling pinched. Never said they were impossible. Just explaining part of the reason we are seeing few jobs created. And, I prefer to be referred to as an Good Day, Sunshine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted November 4, 2010 Share Posted November 4, 2010 I'm not going to predict when the market will tank anymore (but it will tank). My timing has been horrid - the Fed's money printing has convinced enough investors to keep buying and it's not wise to fight the Fed. Being a bear right now is extremely tough. However, every technical indicator is pointing to a reversal and showing that the market is extremely over-bought. I'm patiently waiting but it's getting damn frustrating. The only thing I can say confidently is that buying now is NOT a smart trade in any way, shape or form. It's not a matter of IF the market will drop, but WHEN. Don't fight the Fed (by shorting), but don't start buying either. gold and silver have both done extremely well since August ...I thought I was getting another buying opportunity from silver because of the level of volatility it showed, but then I woke up this morning to seeing it push through $25 /oz and then through $26 /oz when I came home from work later... I am still looking for that major pullback so I can hop back in again (it's been awhile), it's just not coming fast enough for me.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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