muck Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NOTE --- Due to holiday travel schedules, this will be my last one of these for this season --- good luck to each of you and your teams (except anyone pulling for the Chargers to overtake the Chiefs) over the final two weeks! ************************************************ AFC seedings 14-2 NE 12-4 PIT 10-6 KC 9-7 JAC 12-4 BAL 11-5 NYJ NFC seedings 13-3 ATL 11-5 PHI 11-5 CHI 7-9 STL 11-5 NO 10-6 NYG Top 10 Draft Picks: 2-14 CAR 4-12 CIN 4-12 DEN 5-11 BUF 5-11 ARI 5-11 DET 6-10 CLE 6-10 WAS 6-10 DAL 6-10 SF *********************************** DIVISIONAL STANDINGS AFC East 14-2 NE 11-5 NYJ 8-8 MIA 5-11 BUF AFC North 12-4 PIT 12-4 BAL 6-10 CLE 4-12 CIN AFC South 9-7 JAC 9-7 IND 7-9 TEN 6-10 HOU AFC West 10-6 KC 10-6 SD 8-8 OAK 4-12 DEN NFC East 11-5 PHI 10-6 NYG 6-10 DAL 6-10 WAS NFC North 11-5 CHI 9-7 GB 6-10 MIN 5-11 DET NFC South 13-3 ATL 11-5 NO 9-7 TB 2-14 CAR NFC West 7-9 STL 7-9 SEA 6-10 SF 5-11 ARI NOTE: The wins/losses are off by 4 games' outcome (258 wins v. 254 losses) across the entire NFL. Because I project a W/L percentage, occasionally, due to rounding, the standings will occasionally have teams (in total) will have a couple more wins than loss, or vice versa. *********************************** Teams with the easiest schedule here on out -- future opponents average Power Rank: 0.840 SD 0.853 PIT 0.871 SF 0.896 HOU 0.899 STL Teams with the hardest schedule here on out -- future opponents average Power Rank: 1.180 CAR 1.166 BUF 1.149 CLE 1.133 CIN 1.106 CHI *********************************** Power Ranks (and actual record): 1.229 NE (12-2) 1.197 ATL (12-2) 1.163 PIT (10-4) 1.142 PHI (10-4) 1.134 BAL (10-4) 1.132 SD (8-6) 1.117 NO (10-4) 1.109 GB (8-6) 1.104 NYJ (10-4) 1.101 NYG (9-5) 1.087 CHI (10-4) 1.053 IND (8-6) 1.051 KC (9-5) 1.003 TB (8-6) 1.002 MIA (7-7) 1.001 OAK (7-7) 0.988 TEN (6-8) 0.978 JAC (8-6) 0.944 CLE (5-9) 0.938 MIN (5-8) 0.934 HOU (5-9) 0.930 DET (4-10) 0.929 DAL (5-9) 0.926 STL (6-8) 0.903 SF (5-9) 0.896 WAS (5-9) 0.894 SEA (6-8) 0.879 BUF (4-10) 0.867 CIN (3-11) 0.816 ARI (4-10) 0.814 DEN (3-11) 0.761 CAR (2-12) NOTE: ranking the offense, defense and 'other' is based on a proprietary mix of methods ... 'other' consists of items like penalties and turnovers ... *********************************** After starting seven weeks ago, the methodology below has been 77-42 outright winners (64.7%): Week 16 Projections (ranked in decending order of projected total points scored): TEN at KC ... KC by 3.2 pts WAS at JAC ... JAC by 4.4 pts IND at OAK ... OAK by 1.8 pts NYG at GB ... GB by 4.6 pts HOU at DEN ... HOU by 0.3 pts NYJ at CHI ... CHI by 2.7 pts SF at STL ... STL by 4.3 pts SD at CIN ... SD by 3.0 pts DAL at ARI ... DAL by 0.6 pts BAL at CLE ... BAL by 0.7 pts CAR at PIT ... PIT by 13.4 pts (biggest MOV predicted this year so far) MIN at PHI ... PHI by 6.5 pts DET at MIA ... MIA by 3.6 pts SEA at TB ... TB by 5.4 pts NO at ATL ... ATL by 4.8 pts NE at BUF ... NE by 4.0 pts ...assumes a 3.0 point "home field advantage" vs. the score at a neutral site... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Awesome contribution yet again, Much Gives us something to ponder and review every week. Like this week, for instance. Philly is projected to finish 11-5. They are currently 10-4, with home games remaining against MIN (favored by 6+ this week according to your system), and DAL next week. So if you system is saying they will win this week, can I infer that your system is saying they will likely lose to DAL in the finale? Will you system thus install the Cowboys as a favorite? The numbers confuse me sometimes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkris Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Awesome contribution yet again, Much Gives us something to ponder and review every week. Like this week, for instance. Philly is projected to finish 11-5. They are currently 10-4, with home games remaining against MIN (favored by 6+ this week according to your system), and DAL next week. So if you system is saying they will win this week, can I infer that your system is saying they will likely lose to DAL in the finale? Will you system thus install the Cowboys as a favorite? The numbers confuse me sometimes Its not the the Eagles aren't favoured, I have no idea if they will be next week, most likely they will be. However, when they are favoured to win a game they are favoured by a decimal system like .7 to win the game. If next week they are also .7 to win, in total they have 1.4 - 0.6 record going forward and with rounding they will be 1-1. Really in reality they are more likly to win both but its just the way the system works! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thank you sir, for picking up the ball, re: Swammi's query. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 As an aside, I've never looked at how my projected MOVs compare to Vegas's lines. I wonder how I do in games where my approach is picking one team while Vegas has another team favored? I wonder how I do in games where Vegas and I have the same favorites, but I'm projecting a larger MOV than Vegas? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bark Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 another great post!!!!! don't the bears hold the head to head tie breaker with the Eagles making them the #2 seed??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 As noted above an in prior weeks, I project fractional wins ... then round to the nearest whole win ... so, PHI projects to have a better winning percentage (based on the fractional wins), hence the reason they're above CHI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Its not the the Eagles aren't favoured, I have no idea if they will be next week, most likely they will be. However, when they are favoured to win a game they are favoured by a decimal system like .7 to win the game. If next week they are also .7 to win, in total they have 1.4 - 0.6 record going forward and with rounding they will be 1-1. Really in reality they are more likly to win both but its just the way the system works! I get that...except this week they are favored by 6.9...and next week, likely another 6+ at home over the Cowboys. So regardless of fractions/rounding, wouldn't that equate to a 2-0 mark over the next two weeks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just an FYI, if San Diego and KC end up at 10-6, San Diego wins the division. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 I get that...except this week they are favored by 6.9...and next week, likely another 6+ at home over the Cowboys. So regardless of fractions/rounding, wouldn't that equate to a 2-0 mark over the next two weeks? Right. If they win both games, they will be 2-0 over the period. I'm projecting a 60-70% chance they win each game ... which means there is a 30-40% chance they'd lose each game. Projecting a 2-0 finish for PHI would require the same logic that would have similarly required me to project (say) the Jets to go 9-0 over the final nine weeks seven weeks or so ago when they were the #1 ranked power team. And, we see how misguided that would have been... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just an FYI, if San Diego and KC end up at 10-6, San Diego wins the division. SD projects out at 1.55-0.45 over the last two weeks ... 9.55-6.45 overall ... KC projects out at 1.06-0.94 over the last two weeks ... 10.06-5.94 overall ... FYI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Right. If they win both games, they will be 2-0 over the period. I'm projecting a 60-70% chance they win each game ... which means there is a 30-40% chance they'd lose each game. Projecting a 2-0 finish for PHI would require the same logic that would have similarly required me to project (say) the Jets to go 9-0 over the final nine weeks seven weeks or so ago when they were the #1 ranked power team. And, we see how misguided that would have been... Ah gotcha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 SD projects out at 1.55-0.45 over the last two weeks ... 9.55-6.45 overall ...KC projects out at 1.06-0.94 over the last two weeks ... 10.06-5.94 overall ... FYI. Gotcha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 For grins, I ran a hypothetical playoffs assuming the teams and the seeds as outlined above ... and the current stats I used to project winners (which will change over the next two weeks, but play along with me) ... and here's what I found ... AFC seedings 14-2 NE (bye 1) 12-4 PIT (bye 1) NYJ (11-5) at KC (10-6) ... KC wins by 1.8 pts BAL (12-4) at JAC (9-7) ... BAL wins by 0.8 pts BAL at NE ... NE wins by 5.1 pts KC at PIT ... PIT wins by 6.3 pts PIT at NE ... NE wins by 4.0 pts NFC seedings 13-3 ATL (bye 1) 11-5 PHI (bye 1) NYG (10-6) at CHI (11-5) ... CHI wins by 2.8 pts NO (11-5) at STL (7-9) ... NO wins by 0.7 pts NO at ATL ... ATL wins by 4.8 pts CHI at PHI ... PHI wins by 4.1 pts PHI at ATL ... ATL wins by 4.1 pts **************************** NE & ATL ... neutral site ... NE wins by 1.1 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Barring something very unforseen, since this is the last week I'll be doing this in the regular season, I will try to update everything after the season is over to project the playoffs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkris Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I like your playoff prediction and hope it happens! lol That being said thanks for all of the great work! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Next Generation Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 PHI at ATL ... ATL wins by 4.1 pts I think if this is the match-up, the Eagles can and should win in the dome. Their team speed on that carpet and what would be like a home game for Vick would be a very tough combo for ATL to beat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 A disappointing 8-8 in my final week of predictions --- 85-50 on the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevinkris Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 does this mean you will do this week!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 I can't; I don't have my files with me and I'm out of town until sometime Sunday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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