bpwallace49 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Methinks there is a lot of cherry picking stats and not actually watching the guy play throughout the season ( of course a few biased homer opinions in this thread are the exception - not all the homers that chimed in are unrealistic about Smith's skill set mind you). Some of his stats like yards, TDs, are in the Grossman and Tavaris Jackson range. Alex had a good year and he can have another one next year if he continues to let his defense win games, hand the ball off, and minimizing turnover potential (ie..throw as little as possible or throw in offensive sets that require little decision making for a safe throw). All this nonsense about top 50% of QBs in the league and the great potential for upside comes solely from looking at last years numbers and not considering the external circumstances that played into the team success; and to a large extent the QB's success. Give Tavaris Jackson, Grossman, or any other borderline starting quality QB the San Fran defense, run game, and coaching plan and they have just as much upside; maybe even more. Of course I didn't watch all the San Fran games, but from what I saw out of 1/2 a dozen or so; I'm not buying into this guy finding his upside potential for a significant improvement after his 7th year as a starter. So you are saying that he is just like Tim tebow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Hahaha, you must somehow think these quarterbacks are the ones calling the plays. Well, you got me there. This whole time I figured coaches just stood on the sideline for the whole purpose of standing on the sideline. Thanks Ice1, I always wondered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice1 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 (edited) Well, you got me there. This whole time I figured coaches just stood on the sideline for the whole purpose of standing on the sideline. Thanks Ice1, I always wondered. No problem Bushwacked, always glad to help those that have the desire the learn more about the NFL and fantasy football in general. Also, glad to know the wisdom provided may help you in future posts relating to the sport! I will say the research provided goes a bit deeper having played this game of fantasy football for over 28 years. Doing national cheat sheets for a site for close to a decade has forced me to look in depth at players so I am happy to know it has paid off and helped you. Please don't feel bad for only looking at gross numbers, this is a mistake most rookies haven't figured out but then again, not everyone is a serious student of the game. If you ever have a serious trade and need to look at the long term feel free to PM me. Enjoy your weekend and you are welcome! Edited February 12, 2012 by Ice1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 No problem Bushwacked, always glad to help those that have the desire the learn more about the NFL and fantasy football in general. Also, glad to know the wisdom provided may help you in future posts relating to the sport! I will say the research provided goes a bit deeper having played this game of fantasy football for over 28 years. Doing national cheat sheets for a site for close to a decade has forced me to look in depth at players so I am happy to know it has paid off and helped you. Please don't feel bad for only looking at gross numbers, this is a mistake most rookies haven't figured out but then again, not everyone is a serious student of the game. If you ever have a serious trade and need to look at the long term feel free to PM me. Enjoy your weekend and you are welcome! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 No problem Bushwacked, always glad to help those that have the desire the learn more about the NFL and fantasy football in general. Also, glad to know the wisdom provided may help you in future posts relating to the sport! I will say the research provided goes a bit deeper having played this game of fantasy football for over 28 years. Doing national cheat sheets for a site for close to a decade has forced me to look in depth at players so I am happy to know it has paid off and helped you. Please don't feel bad for only looking at gross numbers, this is a mistake most rookies haven't figured out but then again, not everyone is a serious student of the game. If you ever have a serious trade and need to look at the long term feel free to PM me. Enjoy your weekend and you are welcome! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice1 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Always knew you had a good sense of humor! That is the best I got after a Martini or two! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pope Flick Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Ok my bad. Smith ran a td in that was on a fantastic play call that caught the defense and all of America by surprise. He's gonna be fantastic next year. Got it. Again, my apologies And for the record, you said that "keeper QB run was better than ANYTHING Rodgers did all year". Not better than any run Rodgers had all year. No worries, we'll bump this thread next year and see how Smith plays. If I'm wrong about him it won't be the first time I was wrong about a player. Or a team for that matter b/c I believe the 49ers come back to earth next year and finish 9-7, 8-8. My first statement was "Smith is fine" show me where I said fantastic. And spare me the faux apology, since you didn't even go back and read my quote, which was : "And not for nothing, that 30 yard bootleg for the score against the Saints was a better keeper QB run than anything your boy Rodgers did all year. And there's more to come. " Where is the word "anything" like you quote me? It isn't there. I was talking about a RUN. And you avoid the question: who available would be a better replacemant currently? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunday Couch Potatoe Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Wow quite a discussion for such an average Joe.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 To sum up, PON thinks his own opinion trumps a whole boatload of legitimate statistics, so no surprise there. Ice1 thinks Alex Smith had a really good season and trundled out a ton of stats to support that view. Various people weighed in on Smith, rating him on a wide range. Various others claim he hasn't had a real shot before this year due to crap coaches and a revolving coaching door. FWIW, I'm with Ice1 and the people who think the SF revolving door has been the major factor. Smith has shown he has the ability to be a better than average NFL QB. He isn't Joe Montana and he's not going to be in the elite QB group either. However, he's going to do enough to help his team win games and, maybe more importantly, he's unlikely to lose them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 My first statement was "Smith is fine" show me where I said fantastic. And spare me the faux apology, since you didn't even go back and read my quote, which was : "And not for nothing, that 30 yard bootleg for the score against the Saints was a better keeper QB run than anything your boy Rodgers did all year. And there's more to come. " Where is the word "anything" like you quote me? It isn't there. I was talking about a RUN. And you avoid the question: who available would be a better replacemant currently? the apology was sarcastic. "And not for nothing, that 30 yard bootleg for the score against the Saints was a better keeper QB run than anything your boy Rodgers did all year. And there's more to come. " the above is copy/paste, the "anything" is between the quotes, I'll bold it for you. somewhere on the previous page I answered the question. after giving it some thought, how about Flynn? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 FWIW, I'm with Ice1 The world is ending as we know it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 The world is ending as we know it. Politics is one thing, football quite another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Politics is one thing, football quite another. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice1 Posted February 12, 2012 Share Posted February 12, 2012 Politics is one thing, football quite another. I approve this message! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 (edited) To sum up, PON thinks his own opinion trumps a whole boatload of legitimate statistics, so no surprise there.Ice1 thinks Alex Smith had a really good season and trundled out a ton of stats to support that view NFL.com has Smith #9 in rating, #1 with INTs (lack of), and #11 with completion percentage. Borderline top 20 for most passing stats and #27 for passing yards per game. Alex Smith has proven he can be an effective game manager with the top defense and one of the best running attacks, nothing more. A really good statistical season? What am I missing here? Edited February 13, 2012 by bushwacked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 (edited) NFL.com has Smith #9 in rating, #1 with INTs (lack of), and #11 with completion percentage. Borderline top 20 for most passing stats and #27 for passing yards per game. Alex Smith has proven he can be an effective game manager with the top defense and one of the best running attacks, nothing more. A really good statistical season? What am I missing here? Agreed. And depending on what kind of WR they bring in to compliment Crabs, 2012 will tell the story. I don't see Smith being a 4k+ passer (hell a barely broke 3k) but a serviceable game manager. Not much more.... Edited February 13, 2012 by tazinib1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 NFL.com has Smith #9 in rating, #1 with INTs (lack of), and #11 with completion percentage. Borderline top 20 for most passing stats and #27 for passing yards per game. Alex Smith has proven he can be an effective game manager with the top defense and one of the best running attacks, nothing more. A really good statistical season? What am I missing here? This. And ice, you still haven't responded to my post about your statistics... You can make numbers anyway you'd like. The numbers you were posting I had answers for. You're more than able to ride Alex Smith's jock. I have no problem with that. I think he sucks, and this year he just happened to be average. I watched niners games. I know what my eyes saw, an average quarterback on a team with the best defense in the league, absolute monster on the O line, two strong backs, an elite TE, and a talented WR that is under utilized. He is, at best middle of the pack which would make him average. I think he's closer to 25. You can pick and choose your stats to try and work them in your favor, but I'm not buying what you're selling. And we've spent entirely too much time on Alex freaking Smith. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunday Couch Potatoe Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 This. And ice, you still haven't responded to my post about your statistics... You can make numbers anyway you'd like. The numbers you were posting I had answers for. You're more than able to ride Alex Smith's jock. I have no problem with that. I think he sucks, and this year he just happened to be average. I watched niners games. I know what my eyes saw, an average quarterback on a team with the best defense in the league, absolute monster on the O line, two strong backs, an elite TE, and a talented WR that is under utilized. He is, at best middle of the pack which would make him average. I think he's closer to 25. You can pick and choose your stats to try and work them in your favor, but I'm not buying what you're selling. And we've spent entirely too much time on Alex freaking Smith. Oh pleaaase tell us how you really feel..... again and again and again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piratesownninjas Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Oh pleaaase tell us how you really feel..... again and again and again You're right. Alex Smith is a great pick, and an even greater quarterback. The 49ers knew what they were doing all along with him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ditkaless Wonders Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 You're right. Alex Smith is a great pick, and an even greater quarterback. The 49ers knew what they were doing all along with him. Maybe he is a late bloomer. Some of my teachers said I might be a late bloomer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 NFL.com has Smith #9 in rating, #1 with INTs (lack of), and #11 with completion percentage. Borderline top 20 for most passing stats and #27 for passing yards per game. Alex Smith has proven he can be an effective game manager with the top defense and one of the best running attacks, nothing more. A really good statistical season? What am I missing here? I said he had a really good season and there were a bunch of statistics to support that, not quite the same as a really good statistical season a la Brees and Rodgers. You cite some of those stats yourself. It's important to have a QB who can win you games of course but equally, it's important to have one who won't lose them for you. Smith is a decent NFL QB and with a full camp plus coaching consistency, we'll see better from him in 2012. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice1 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 (edited) This. And ice, you still haven't responded to my post about your statistics... You can make numbers anyway you'd like. The numbers you were posting I had answers for. You're more than able to ride Alex Smith's jock. I have no problem with that. I think he sucks, and this year he just happened to be average. I watched niners games. I know what my eyes saw, an average quarterback on a team with the best defense in the league, absolute monster on the O line, two strong backs, an elite TE, and a talented WR that is under utilized. He is, at best middle of the pack which would make him average. I think he's closer to 25. You can pick and choose your stats to try and work them in your favor, but I'm not buying what you're selling. And we've spent entirely too much time on Alex freaking Smith. While I am officially beating a dead horse, it really doesn't matter what I say to you regarding Smith. You think he can't throw it 10 yards and sucks. My take is you have limited knowledge as to how professional coaches analyze the QB position so you let emotions control your perceptions. I understand your view, it is an easy to have when only looking at attempts per season. It should also be noted, I never said he was elite compared to the top tier QB's in the league but that he had a very good season in the system he was charged to run. That is not riding his jock but simply stating the facts of his play this year. He has gone from being viewed as a bust type player to a player that bounced backed in a big way and should get a contract accordingly as a winning NFL QB. NFL wise, he was in the mix as a top 8-10 quality player at the position this year. He has also completed over 60% on average over the last 3 seasons which is one key measure and he accomplished this in 3 different systems with 3 different coordinators. His line, while young and improving, yielded 44 sacks and Smith also threw it away the 5th most times in the league. In spite of this he was better than every QB except Rodgers I think in turnovers. Obviously, some of those sacks are coverage sacks but it does show he was a very good protector of the football. While you think there are 25 better QB's in the league, I simply reject that claim. I have no desire to argue passing attempts. The top 3 rushing attempt teams made the playoffs and coincidentally, they were also the 3 teams that had the fewest passing attempts. While not Matt Schaub, he tracked reasonably close to Schaub this season although Houston has a far superior pass blocking O-line and Schaub has played in the same system for years now. I look at Smith's ceiling in this range but it remains to be seen how he performs in year two with Harbaugh's system. I expect him to lead the 49's back to the playoffs next season. Middle of the pack is 16, not 25. One can't claim it was all about defense even though they were outstanding. Smith didn't turn the ball over hardly ever and that was huge. The 49's were the 9th highest scoring team in the league, and amassed a 13-3 record. He may be a game manager but in 2011, he was very good at it. Besides there is nothing wrong with being a game manager. That is what good QB's do regardless of system. My personal rating is in the 15 range as far as his total talent with a ceiling of around 10 by NFL standards in my opinion which is much different than your assessment. Playing on a very good team that will utilize his talents helps but he proved to be smarter and better at reading defenses than I thought going into the season. I always believed he had the physical talent to be a solid NFL QB. Edited February 13, 2012 by Ice1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 PON just got pwned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 While not Matt Schaub, he tracked reasonably close to Schaub this season although Houston has a far superior pass blocking O-line and Schaub has played in the same system for years now. I look at Smith's ceiling in this range but it remains to be seen how he performs in year two with Harbaugh's system. comparing Smith to Schaub is a reach. Dude ammassed 4k yards in 09/10 and almost eclipsed 5k. No way in hell Smith even sniffs 4k yards. While I agree Smith is a very good game manager, putting him in the same breath as Schaub is a stretch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice1 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 comparing Smith to Schaub is a reach. Dude ammassed 4k yards in 09/10 and almost eclipsed 5k. No way in hell Smith even sniffs 4k yards. While I agree Smith is a very good game manager, putting him in the same breath as Schaub is a stretch. Like I said, He is not Schaub but tracked close to him THIS season. Obviously, Foster and their running game was a significant game changer given the loss of Johnson and this clearly impacted their passing game giving them similar weapon quality to the 49's. The reason I said ceiling was Smith will have to work to get there and that means he will need to improve his yards per completion by around 2 yards. Of course he doesn't have anything remotely close to A. Johnson on the roster and no where near the experience of the offensive system at this point. I simply said, in my view this is his ceiling but that it remains to be seen. I would select Schaub over Smith all day given his body of work and consistency of system. I rank Schaub in the 9-10 range as an NFL QB with a ceiling around 5-6. In fact, since people like to talk game manager, he is one of the best. Not flashy but extremely effective on a rapidly improving team with a great defense. I hated he got injured this year as they had a real chance to win it all in my view. My view, based on Smith's completion percentages, 4k is within reach but that will depend on how much they open up the passing offense and improve at the WR position. Didn't mean to imply he was Schaub only that his ceiling could be that good, I actually thought I made that point clear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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