The Truth About Rookie Wide Receivers

[DMD]

Just posted the new article about rookie wideouts.

 

I follow football a pretty good bit. And even I was kinda of surprised at how well rookie wideouts have been doing in recent years. There was a time you could just completely ignore them and be 99% right. But there were a high of six rookie wideouts that had decent fantasy points last year. That's remarkable.

 

Are you no longer scared of rookie wideouts? Did you take the richly rewarded chance on AJ Green or Julio Jones last year?

[keggerz]

I took Green at 8.9 (93rd overall, 34th WR) as my WR3 in SOFA IDP last year...for those not in IDP league there were 7 IDPs taken before him....and Julio Jones who I was also considering went 2 picks later.

Edited May 8, 2012 by keggerz

[BearBroncos]

I was only able to snatch AJ up in one league but I did get Torry Smith and Titus Young in many of my leagues.

Edited May 9, 2012 by BearBroncos

[stevegrab]

Great analysis as usual.

[delusions of grandeur]

I was only able to snatch AJ up in one league but I did get Torry Smith and Titus Young in many of my leagues.

 

And you were one of the ones I tried my damnedest to get up and get AJ, but to no avail. Julio was quite the nice consolation prize though....

 

Crazy how much WRs and recently QBs too have made such a splash, though the one thing I might add is that I would be hesitant to compare the top WRs most years to the likes of Calvin, AJ Green, and Julio as rookies.... That type of talent doesn't just come along every year, and it was really an anomaly that 2 of them did last year... Situation aside, I just can't have nearly the expectations for Blackmon and Floyd, though it wouldn't surprise me to see a number of quick contributors out of this class, which DMD's data certainly backs up.

[Papajohn]

Great analysis as usual.

 

 

+1

Exactly what I would have said.

[Scooby's Hubby]

Julio Jones was only usable in 8 of the first 13 weeks last year, and 3 of those 8 games were worthless. That leaves 5 games you got for drafting him and three that you started and got burned. According to the article he was the 2nd best rookie WR last year.

 

Torrey Smith didn't even play the first two weeks and made it almost impossible to start him in his week 3 debut, where he had 3 TDs and a monster game, then he comes back the next week with 1 catch for 1 yard, so you get burned, there. The rest of the year (thru week 13) he gets only two more TDs (you had to wait until week 9 and week 11 for those).

 

I say you cannot trust rookie WRs at all. AJ Green was the lone startable rookie WR last year.

[DMD]

I would disagree - picking them apart like that seems to support what you are saying but you can do the same for about any wideout. Hakeem Nicks and Julio Jones both had seven games with either 100 yards and/or a touchdown. Julio Jones played 13 games as did Greg Jennings. Jones - 54-959-8 and Jennings 67-949-9. Wideouts rarely have more than half their games with 100 yards and/or a touchdown. Jennings had nine games with a TD but only 3 with 100 yards while Jones turned in five games with over 100 yards.

 

I'll agree Torry Smith was nothing more than a freak because of his 5-5152-3 game against the Rams but that was just one rookie.

 

To say you cannot trust rookie WRs is to say you just cannot trust WRs and that has some truth to it. They are just never going to be consistent except for all but the top players. Only the top ten or twelve wideouts have more than half their games with 100 yards and/or a touchdown and maybe only five that can top 67% for 2/3's of their games. Rookies are contributing more than they have - undeniably - and they are fitting into starting lineups much like the veterans are.

[Scooby's Hubby]

I would disagree - picking them apart like that seems to support what you are saying but you can do the same for about any wideout. Hakeem Nicks and Julio Jones both had seven games with either 100 yards and/or a touchdown. Julio Jones played 13 games as did Greg Jennings. Jones - 54-959-8 and Jennings 67-949-9. Wideouts rarely have more than half their games with 100 yards and/or a touchdown. Jennings had nine games with a TD but only 3 with 100 yards while Jones turned in five games with over 100 yards.

 

I'll agree Torry Smith was nothing more than a freak because of his 5-5152-3 game against the Rams but that was just one rookie.

 

To say you cannot trust rookie WRs is to say you just cannot trust WRs and that has some truth to it. They are just never going to be consistent except for all but the top players. Only the top ten or twelve wideouts have more than half their games with 100 yards and/or a touchdown and maybe only five that can top 67% for 2/3's of their games. Rookies are contributing more than they have - undeniably - and they are fitting into starting lineups much like the veterans are.

 

 

I am just one of those owners that likes dependability and has evolved into starting 2 TEs or 3 RBs especially in PPR leagues, rather than gamble on 3-4 WRs. And the rookie WRs have to be on the right team in the right situation, like Julio was with Matt Ryan. A guy like Blackmon this year would be a major gamble, IMO, being on the Jags, versus say a Brian Quick for the Rams, who could have some late season upside. I really do not see a 1st round WR making any splash this year.