Cam Newton

[DMD]

I had to check and it was as I thought. Cam Newton rushed in 14 TDs last year. Over the last 50 years, there have only been three other QBs who had 10+ rushing TDs in a season. Here is who and what they did the next season as well:

 

Steve Grogan 1976 12 TDs (1 TD)

Kordell Stewart 1997 11 TDs (2 TDs)

Daunte Culpepper 2002 10 TDs (4 TDs)

 

Newton's rushing yards and scores are what makes him a top ten QB. And it is likely he will not run in 14 more this year. But will he get more than say 5? History really is pretty consistent here.

[delfamdelfam]

I assume that is why they brought Tolbert in, to take some wear and tear away from Newton at the goal-line.

Edited August 2, 2012 by delfamdelfam

[Pancake]

I am so skeptical that (S)Cam Newton can duplicate his 2011 performance this year. I just dont believe that anybody can put up an NFL record then duplicate it the next year. If I take away 11 of his rushing TDs (so that he is only projected for 5 rushing TDs) and scale back his rushing yardage by approx. 25% (from approx. 700 yds to 500 yds) he is still ranked the 6th best QB in my leagues scoring system. Around 6th best QB appears correct to me for 2012. I see that The Huddle has him ranked 5th. I see Cam has an ADP on My Fantasy League of approx. 4th QB taken. This to me such a leap of faith.

[stevegrab]

That is a pretty small sample size.

 

Grogan wasn't really a great runner that I recall, so how'd he get so many rush TDs.

 

Stewart may not have started many games the year after the record, so not sure that's a great comparison.

 

Not saying he'll score 14, or even 11 or close to 10. But I'd say 6-8 is not unreasonable.

[bigbrownsbeatdown]

I wouldnt be surprised if newton rushed in about 8 tds this year. The man is humongous and athletic, he is perfect for goaline work. The only reason that newton couldnt score 8 tds rushing this year is if the panthers take away the opportunity from him and delegate that task to tolbert or the other backs.

[SecondString]

He won't stop running. It's in his blood. He won't get 14, but he will get around half that at least, I'm guessing, along with 500+ yards. And his passing numbers should be decent, but the first two games in 2011 really inflated last last year's numbers. He'll still be a fantasy stud, agree with the 4-5 ranking for QB's, if not higher.

[Chavez]

That is a pretty small sample size.

 

Grogan wasn't really a great runner that I recall, so how'd he get so many rush TDs.

 

Grogan ran for 300+ yds each year from 76-79, so that's a pretty good running QB (as a matter of fact, in each of those seasons he ran for more yards than John Elway ever did in a single season).

Stewart may not have started many games the year after the record, so not sure that's a great comparison.

 

Stewart started ALL 16 games the following year, and had 570+ touches (pass att + rushes + sacks) compared to 540ish touches the year he ran for 11 tds (88 carries in '97, 81 in '98) - lack of opportunity wasn't the issue there.

Not saying he'll score 14, or even 11 or close to 10. But I'd say 6-8 is not unreasonable.

 

 

I'm not going to show my work, but just looking at the careers of John Elway, Steve Young, Michael Vick, and Donovan McNabb, and it appears that ANY time a running QB tops a half-dozen rushing tds, they fall off to 1 or 2 the following year....an being exception Air McNair, who ran for 8 in 97 and only fell off to 4 in 98.

 

It's a pretty strong trend, but one that I would certainly cast a skeptical eye at as being pretty inexplicable - there were more than a few trends of "6 tds, 1 td, 6 tds"-type runs.

 

But I DO think what this shows is that it's probably best to count on the rushing YARDS (those remain reasonably consistent year-to-year) and consider the tds to be absolute gravy.