is demaryius thomas being undervalued right now.

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

before last nights opener...I had a belief that maybe people were overreacting to the Denver situation and DT's lack of tds last year....obviously last night isn't going to drastically change anyones mind if they aren't very high on him this year

 

virtually everywhere you go you see Thomas ranked in the mid to late 20's....here it is 27th overall in ppr....and its around the same everywhere else

 

I know people were a bit down on him due to the low td totals...at least I see that mentioned everytime when his ranking is explained.....tds are volatile and those numbers usually correct themselves...Denver only threw what? 19 tds passes last year?

 

I realize that a majority of the receivers ranked ahead of him have MUCH better qb situations ...so that makes sense....at the same time....it didn't stop deandre Hopkins from going off....

 

i think we all know the general consensus on mark sanchez....when i think of sanchez i think of a capable backup .....a guy that's been in some big games.....and while hes flawed i think he can still crack it as a starting qb in this league

 

if DT had put 10-12 tds with his numbers last year i dunno if wed be seeing him ranked where he is right now...even with sanchez looking like the starter....those numbers can easily be had for DT again....hes a target machine

 

when i look at him in the mid to late 3rd round...based on his overall ranking and ADP...i think someone is going to do very well landing him as a #2 after nabbing a #1 wr and a #1 rb......maybe even someone goes 0 rb and nabs DT as their 3rd receiver in a league where u start 3 plus a flex

 

i like him as a real good value there...even though you rarely think of DT as a "value"

Edited August 12, 2016 by forever in debt to mo lewis

[Scooby's Hubby]

I think the consensus is that he will have less catches, which means less yards, and that is because of the difference between Sanchez and Manning. Plus, Denver Def too good, so there is no trash for him. Kubiak may surprise us, though. He did use Andre Johnson a lot in his scheme and now does not have to cater to Manning's age. Kubiak may not have his ideal TE yet, either, so Sanchez could lock onto Thomas in the red zone. I do think Thomas will flirt with 10 TDs because he is an ultimate target with his size and skills. My prediction is 90/1220/9 - prob average 6/80 per game

[MTSuper7]

In short, yes. He's a value pick where he is being drafted on average.

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

I think the consensus is that he will have less catches, which means less yards, and that is because of the difference between Sanchez and Manning. Plus, Denver Def too good, so there is no trash for him. Kubiak may surprise us, though. He did use Andre Johnson a lot in his scheme and now does not have to cater to Manning's age. Kubiak may not have his ideal TE yet, either, so Sanchez could lock onto Thomas in the red zone. I do think Thomas will flirt with 10 TDs because he is an ultimate target with his size and skills. My prediction is 90/1220/9 - prob average 6/80 per game

im not so sure there is much, if big, difference, between last years manning and sanchez at this point....as scary as that sounds to say.....

 

i realize what you are saying about denvers d....they will always keep them in games or keep the game close and that doesn't make it easy without garbage time production.....and i do agree that kubiak doesn't have his TE weapon

 

but at this point do you think sanchez is any worse than a hoyer/mallett/tj yates/Brandon weeden quartet?

 

i could see him hitting 90/1300/10-12....which would make him a great grab in the mid 3rd....he is an "ultimate target" and i think hed like to prove he is one without a hall of fame qb too

[stethant]

 

it's not the QBs, it's the scheme. Kubiak doesn't want to throw as much as HOU did last year.

 

This. I don't think DT is underrated currently.

 

Yes, Sanchez supported his receivers just fine during his last stint in Philadelphia as a starter but this is a Kubiak offense now, not a Kelly one. I seem to recall that Andre Johnson in his heydey did well but did that offense produce a good #2 WR (thinking about Sanders now as well)? I think Matt Schaub back then was a superior QB to Sanchez now.

 

In some ways it depends on the running game. If CJ can pull his head out of his butt that might make things easier for DT but regardless his ceiling is capped in this offense. When has Sanchez ever supported a 1300yd 10TD receiver?

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

 

it's not the QBs, it's the scheme. Kubiak doesn't want to throw as much as HOU did last year.

 

DT is a dynasty hold and not underrated in redraft.

 

im sure Denver didn't want to throw that much last year either....but they threw almost just as much as Houston did last year anyway...with the same skill players and defense.....and you know, even though it was manning, he wasn't really "peyton manning".....

 

i just think if Thomas had scored 10-12 touchdowns people would have kept his value around the same

 

i get it..ideally no coach wants to put the ball up 600 times....and im sure kubiak would rather not with the qbs he has on his roster....but he might have to come close

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

The superbowl is how Kubiak wants the game played. Cj goes 20 for 88 yards. Ball control. Field position. Passing game will be a little less than last year.

yeah im sure that's how every team would like to play every game....but it doesn't work out like that 16 out of 16 times....lol

 

even if they throw a little less it doesn't mean Thomas will definitely see less targets....even if he does....say he ends up with 90 catches and 1250 yards and maybe 10-12 tds...would you take that out of a 3rd round pick? youd prob take that out of a 2nd round pick....hed be a great value if you landed a #1 rb and a #1 receiver in the first two rounds....i really think the devalutation of Thomas had more to do with sanchez than it does out of a fear of less opportunity

 

aj green went for 86/1300/10 and cincy threw the ball 100 less times than denver

Edited August 12, 2016 by forever in debt to mo lewis

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

You misunderstand. .. no one is saying DT is done. Some of us are saying he's properly valued for the 3rd round.

 

The value pick is sanders.

 

without even getting into anything about sanders and him being a value or whatever

 

whats the difference between the # 5 ranked wr, with an ADP in the 1st round, named aj green...and the #17th ranked wr, with an ADP in the 3rd round, named demaryius Thomas?

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

Sigh...

 

green has no competition

he has a more friendly scheme

he doesn't have this defense

he has a better qb

he has less personal distractions

he's not on a superbowl team

he lives in Ohio

he's voting for Hillary

 

I get it. You don't agree. Fine.

more friendly scheme? they threw the ball 100 less times than Denver did.....if denvers d and running game is so awesome why did they throw the ball 600x with a noodle armed qb who was on his last leg?

 

green also caught 3 of his 10 tds in the final four games with aj at qb...is aj a major upgrade over sanchez?

 

i just don't see what you have to back up your argument.....i think everyone is dropping demaryius because everyone is telling them too...because they think with sanchez at the helm he cant produce

Edited August 12, 2016 by forever in debt to mo lewis

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

Ok.thanks.

welp...so much for a friendly debate

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

 

we have different opinions and interpretations of theavailable data.

um not sure what data you are referring to

[InTomWeTrust]

I brought this up months ago check in

[darin3]

You misunderstand. .. no one is saying DT is done. Some of us are saying he's properly valued for the 3rd round.

 

The value pick is sanders.

 

Eek, not sure how Sanders represents the value play here.

 

Also, I think Trevor Siemian ends up as the starter.

[darin3]

And so there's data to back it up...

 

Sanders MFL ADP right now in PPR leagues is 69. WRs going in this range include Tyler Lockett, John Brown, Allen Hurns and Corey Coleman)

 

His targets remained high from '14-15 (141, 137), but the receptions dove significantly (101 to 76). That's concerning to me.

 

Bad QB play? Possibly.

 

Is Mark Sanchez better than a noodle-armed Peyton Manning? I'd say they're probably close. Saying that Trevor Siemian is in the discussion as the starter should tell you something.

 

That all said, Sanders somehow finished as WR16 last year.

 

What concerns me, other than the massive dip in receptions, is the lack of consistency. Sanders had what can be construed as 5 "big" games (over 20 ppr points). But he also had 5 games where he had less than 10 points. Even more concerning is that in two of those contests he was facing extremely weak pass defenses.

 

I dunno, maybe you can look at Sanders as a value play if you believe the QB production improves and he - at worst - duplicates 2015 numbers.

 

I think the QB play is going to be shoddy all season and they will try leaning on the run more. Who knows.

 

What I will say is that only Hurns (WR19 in 2015) is in the same range ADP wise. Now, relying solely on 2015 stats is a faulty practice. Brown and Lockett are up-and-comers and Hurns is due for a correction... SO, out of anyone in that ADP range, yes... Sanders is probably the value play.

 

That all said, I think DT (high ankle sprain or not) still can put up solid numbers. If his injury limits him early I like Sanders even more. But again, the QB play will have to out-perform my projections.

Edited August 12, 2016 by darin3

[darin3]

As for sanders. .. I don't look for game to game consistency from my wrs. I have more success accepting the variability and having 3-5 roller-coaster wrs who put up great season-wide numbers. I also see sanders doing a lot with a little and making catches on bad throws that other wrs wouldn't

 

See now I would have thought that statement was more in line with Thomas.

[darin3]

Ai was teasing "forever in debt"... in small print, I put that DT isn't injured

doh, yeah i watched the game last night and didn't think i saw anything happen... well, that's good.

[MTSuper7]

The superbowl is how Kubiak wants the game played. Cj goes 20 for 88 yards. Ball control. Field position. Passing game will be a little less than last year.

Being a former QB, Kubiak probably doesn't want a ball control offense or a game manager type QB. I say he is playing the hand he was dealt with. If anything, one could argue that Kubiak's history before coming to Denver (Houston days) showed a run-first game plan relying on a stud WR and good TE play to keep defenses honest (Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels).

[MTSuper7]

What the hell is your avatar?

That's such a LordOpie reply. I love it. Season 1 of American Horror Story.

[dougsul]

Sanchez (who is average at best) can and will throw the deep ball (and out passes with some zip) much better than manning could last year. To me there is no debate, Payton just could not do it from all the games I saw.

[MTSuper7]

 

hey man, the BoTH Bond dynasty leagues miss you! If you ever want to get back into dynasty, please consider re-joining us. In fact, I think you're still listed as a commish in one of the leagues

 

Ha, that's hilarious. I actually took last year off of fantasy football entirely, and I'm just easing back into my hometown league since the guy who replaced me last year didn't work out. I don't think I've got enough bandwidth for this stuff any more, but I missed my friends in that league and wanted to get back. Who knows though, maybe life will get less crazy again some day.