I think Gurley bounces back and is a good value

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

Two years ago I spent a 4th round pick on this kid and exercised patience for the first 4 weeks. And he became a key part of a high stakes championship for me along with Julio, Cooks, A-Rob, Martavis, Baldwin and Eifert. Of course that nice rookie year led to him being rated as a first rounder last year. And he went complete bust.

 

Now here we are. And from what Im seeing now he can be had in the early 3rd or later depending on where you look. I suspect by the time late August/ early Sept drafts roll around he might have moved up a bit if we see some positive signs of life from the Rams.

 

After watching the Amazon series on the Rams, and my brief introduction into new coach Sean McVay, Ive come away slightly impressed with what Ive seen from the guy. He might inject some life into this team. They went an added some some very good veterans to an offensive line that has talent already but has underachieved. Whitworth is older but still playing at a top level. If they can get Goff going a bit, with some confidence, I think you are going to see this Rams team compete a little better.

 

Talent wise Gurley, IMO, belongs up there in that top tier of backs. At worst hes there with Freeman and Shady. Its really situation that holds him back to me. I think that situation can only get better. And I believe theres a good chance it gets markedly better. I think right now hes priced about right. But I speculate it could go up and I think hes a decent bet to outperform that and perform like a 1st rounder/early 2nd.

[stethant]

He will be better this year than last I agree - but if his ADP creeps into the 2nd round the value is gone. You're basically then assuming he repeats 2015.

 

I'm optimistic on Gurley but there are alot of moving parts here that give me pause. The biggest question mark is Goff - a RB can't run when you're down in virtually every game (see Crowell). Then he has to play Seattle and Arizona twice a year. The coach and the scheme are new.

 

Lots of potential but the uncertainty this year caps his value for me.

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

3 hours ago, stethant said:

He will be better this year than last I agree - but if his ADP creeps into the 2nd round the value is gone. You're basically then assuming he repeats 2015.

 

I'm optimistic on Gurley but there are alot of moving parts here that give me pause. The biggest question mark is Goff - a RB can't run when you're down in virtually every game (see Crowell). Then he has to play Seattle and Arizona twice a year. The coach and the scheme are new.

 

Lots of potential but the uncertainty this year caps his value for me.

 

I agree. But I think this McVay kid is going to be a real boost. I think they lacked a true offensive mind and coach. I think they may have one. And Goff is still a work in progress for sure but I think this is the guy that can help him make a jump. And especially with what looks to be an improved offensive line and possibly some young playmakers on offense too. I noticed on the show I watched that Gurley and Goff were spending extra time together at OTAs working on some passing game stuff.

 

I think even in the 2nd round area hes a decent value. Hes easily as good of a value as Jordan Howard. And a much better natural talent.

[CowboysDiehard]

It's all about the o-line.  Did the Rams do anything to improve theirs?

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

26 minutes ago, CowboysDiehard said:

It's all about the o-line.  Did the Rams do anything to improve theirs?

 

brought in andrew whitworth to play LT and john sullivan at C...arguably their two weakest links on the offensive line from last year.

 

as I mentioned before...Im not basing it off this...but after watching the last episode of the amazon series I get a good impression from this mcvay kid...just seems like he exudes a genuine confidence...I think hes going to help goff alot

Edited July 2, 2017 by forever in debt to mo lewis

[michaelredd9]

After his rookie year, I thought Gurley was that rare breed of running back that could produce even with a bad offensive line on a bad team.  That facing an eight man front, he could break through the first line of defense and then it would be off to the races.  That if he had been stuffed for most of the game, he could pull off a 60 yard touchdown and still have a productive fantasy game.  That didn't happen last year.  His longest run last year was 24 yards.  It seemed like he wasn't trying.  I guess it's better that he was lacking in motivation instead of talent.  It's hard to add talent.  It's easy to add motivation.

 

His current MFL public league adp is 21.80.  It seems a little high, but it's right where a steep drop in talent occurs.  Workhorse running backs are so rare nowadays that it'll be hard to pass on him at the end of the 2nd round.  

[kdko]

I disagree.  Even with a bad line, his ypc shouldn't have been that pedestrian.  He just flat out looked terrible.  He had tons of volume and didn't give any return on it.  I think the only value to be had here is if you can get him where he was being drafted in his rookie year (4th).  

[stethant]

2 hours ago, kdko said:

I disagree.  Even with a bad line, his ypc shouldn't have been that pedestrian.  He just flat out looked terrible.  He had tons of volume and didn't give any return on it.  I think the only value to be had here is if you can get him where he was being drafted in his rookie year (4th).  

See - this concerns me. I had zero shares of Rams players last year and didn't see any of their games. Was he bad because Fisher was just a d-bag sucking the life out of the offense or was he bad like Trent Richardson went bad?

[kdko]

Just now, stethant said:

See - this concerns me. I had zero shares of Rams players last year and didn't see any of their games. Was he bad because Fisher was just a d-bag sucking the life out of the offense or was he bad like Trent Richardson went bad?

 

Trent Richardson-like bad.

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

He was NOT Trent Richardson bad. The QB had no respect with opposing defenses and the offensive line was terrible.

 

Gurley has never been as bad as Richardson. Even Richardsons promising rookie year was a 3.6 average. You are forgetting this is a guy that averaged 4.8 on 229 carries a year before last. Hes an elite talent at that position. Defenses sold out to bottle up Gurley. And Greg Robinson was horrible. 

 

If you are comparing Gurley to Richardson talent/vision wise I seriously doubt you know what you are watching.

Edited July 3, 2017 by forever in debt to mo lewis

[kdko]

2 hours ago, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

He was NOT Trent Richardson bad. The QB had no respect with opposing defenses and the offensive line was terrible.

 

Gurley has never been as bad as Richardson. Even Richardsons promising rookie year was a 3.6 average. You are forgetting this is a guy that averaged 4.8 on 229 carries a year before last. Hes an elite talent at that position. Defenses sold out to bottle up Gurley. And Greg Robinson was horrible. 

 

If you are comparing Gurley to Richardson talent/vision wise I seriously doubt you know what you are watching.

 

 

Ehhh, I grew up in LA as a Rams fan and still watch a decent amount of their games.  Gurley looked flat out awful last year.  He either checked out mentally, needs his prescription changed, or forgot how to run altogether.  I'm sorry, but having under 3.5 YPC on almost 300 carries is terrible no matter what the situation is.  At his current ADP i'll definitely be looking elsewhere.  Gordon's line was terrible last year as well, yet most of his yards came AFTER contact.

 

Sure these are cherry picked plays, but wow.  Their offensive line has improved, but it's still going to be a terrible offense.  With O-Line being the most injury prone positions on the field, just one missing cog piece and it's going to be this all over again.  What exactly are YOU watching?

 

 

 

 

Edited July 4, 2017 by kdko

[Dolphin_Akie]

I love his workload because you know they are going to feed him. He'll certainly improve on last year as the O-line will be improved but its just a question of how much does he improve? I can't get excited about drafting him in the first 2 maybe 3 rounds.

[michaelredd9]

It seems far more running backs average 3.2 or 3.3 yards per carry nowadays than previously.  Maybe it's because defensive tackles have gotten so good that when an offensive line is bad there is absolutely no place to run between the tackles.

 

The more I think about Gurley the more I think I will target him in the mid or low second round.  I think too often we judge running backs too much on results from the previous year.  The effectiveness of offensive lines probably changes more year-to-year than any other position group in football.  I'm going to bet on his natural talent which is immense.

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

30 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said:

It seems far more running backs average 3.2 or 3.3 yards per carry nowadays than previously.  Maybe it's because defensive tackles have gotten so good that when an offensive line is bad there is absolutely no place to run between the tackles.

 

The more I think about Gurley the more I think I will target him in the mid or low second round.  I think too often we judge running backs too much on results from the previous year.  The effectiveness of offensive lines probably changes more year-to-year than any other position group in football.  I'm going to bet on his natural talent which is immense.

 

Exactly. Think about Demarco and Shady last year. I drafted Shady in one league in the 3rd and Demarco in the 4th in another( I made a mistake in the league with Shady and went Reed over Demarco even though I had Demarco pegged). Everyone was down on them from the previous year and they bounced back with improved offensive line situations.

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

12 hours ago, kdko said:

 

 

Ehhh, I grew up in LA as a Rams fan and still watch a decent amount of their games.  Gurley looked flat out awful last year.  He either checked out mentally, needs his prescription changed, or forgot how to run altogether.  I'm sorry, but having under 3.5 YPC on almost 300 carries is terrible no matter what the situation is.  At his current ADP i'll definitely be looking elsewhere.  Gordon's line was terrible last year as well, yet most of his yards came AFTER contact.

 

Sure these are cherry picked plays, but wow.  Their offensive line has improved, but it's still going to be a terrible offense.  With O-Line being the most injury prone positions on the field, just one missing cog piece and it's going to be this all over again.  What exactly are YOU watching?

 

 

 

 

 

Again. He had 229 carries on year for a 4.8 average. Thats something Richardson never had. Richardson had what many considered a promising rookie year and that was off like a 3.6 average. They arent the same class of back. Gurley is a much better natural runner. More of a glider.

 

Gurleys rookie year suggests that something was terribly wrong last year. Either with him or that offense as a whole. Im leaning offense. Because we have seen that he could be a very good runner. In two seasons weve already seen a big glimpse of what can be done in one of his two years. You put Gurley in Dallas and he was easily doing what Zeke did.

 

Yes an injury or two on the offensive line can change things. But who drafts on predicted injuries? Plus I think hes going to have an upgrade in QB and scheme. McVay has made me think this can be done quickly. But that remains to be seen yet. Ill be looking for positive signs in camp and preseason actions

 

As I mentioned before. Demarco and Shady were two guys last year we know can get things done. And everybody had written them off because of their previous year. Demarcos offensive line situation improved and a better suited running scheme=Success. Shadys offensive line ended up performing at a much higher level than anyone expected as many had their offensive line pegged in the bottom 1/3 of the league. And they ended up performing like a  team in the top 1/3. If things turn around for St Louis just a little bit Gurley could be real good. There are alot of factors. Just becuase Gurley may have missed some opportunities doesnt mean its entirely his fault. The center has been replaced. Maybe Gurleys confidence was down after watching a stagnant passing game? Maybe he was frustrated at seeing fronts designed to stop him every time he touched the ball. Gurley was the only focus of every defense they played. Are we going to put the blame solely on Gurleys vision and instincts? If things get rolling in a positive/solid direction all of that could change very quickly.

Edited July 4, 2017 by forever in debt to mo lewis

[michaelredd9]

Interestingly, Pro football focus rated the Rams offensive line as 28th best in 2015 (27th best at run blocking) and 27th best in 2016 (PFF public stats didn't differentiate between run and pass blocking in 2016).  So Gurley pretty much single-handedly produced in 2015 even though he had an atrocious offensive line.  He probably got stuffed at the line of scrimmage as much in 2015 as in 2016.  But he pulled off runs of 71, 60, 55, 52, 49, 48, 34, and 30 yards in 2015.  He didn't manage one run over 25 yards in 2016.  Imagine what he could do if he is running behind a good or even average offensive line.

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

1 minute ago, michaelredd9 said:

Interestingly, Pro football focus rated the Rams offensive line as 28th best in 2015 (27th best at run blocking) and 27th best in 2016 (PFF public stats didn't differentiate between run and pass blocking in 2016).  So Gurley pretty much single-handedly produced in 2015 even though he had an atrocious offensive line.  He probably got stuffed at the line of scrimmage as much in 2015 as in 2016.  But he pulled off runs of 71, 60, 55, 52, 49, 48, 34, and 30 yards in 2015.  He didn't manage one run over 25 yards in 2016.  Imagine what he could do if he is running behind a good or even average offensive line.

 

As I mentioned before. Buffalos offensive line went into last year ranked in the preseason, by most, as a unit that was in the bottom 1/3 of the league. And by bottom 1/3 I saw most sites had them ranked as a unit between 25-28th. They outperformed that big time. Now of course a part of that is the Tyrod factor. He does help open running lanes himself in certain formations as he is a threat. 

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

I probably sound like Im babbling. And now Im going to sound like an a-hole that is bragging or something. But this a post I made around a similar time last year

 

Ive been pretty locked in the last 3 years. Finishing 3rd, 1st and 2nd last year in a high stakes league that takes home about 5k for first. Last year my first 3 picks were AJ, Evans and Shady. AJ was on pace to set career high in receptions. And we all saw Evans and Shady did.

 

Im going to stop talking after this because I think I made my point about Gurley in my previous posts. And Im setting myself up for ridicule and failure LOL. But adding Whitworth at LT is huge. This is a guy that was a 2nd team All Pro in 2014. First team in 2015 and Pro Bowler the last two years(of course that distinction doesnt mean what it was once did). And John Sullivan is a solid center. Hes on the downswing and not a guy that once was, a guy that anchored an OL that Peterson rushed for 2k behind, but hes still an upgrade over last years starter.

 

Ill say it one last time. Even if Gurley fails this year I think you are doing the smart thing if you are drafting him anywhere in the late 2nd to mid 3rd.

[michaelredd9]

41 minutes ago, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

 

Even if Gurley fails this year

 

 

One nice thing about Gurley is that he'll still get 250+ carries even if he does poorly.  Last year was a nightmare and he still ended up with 200 fantasy points which put him 15th overall for running backs.  He has too much talent for a team to give up on him.  Players like Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi might look good now but they are far more likely to be busts.  Many fantasy season epitaphs have been written because of drafting running backs who put up one good year after having previously been unknowns.

[kdko]

2 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

One nice thing about Gurley is that he'll still get 250+ carries even if he does poorly.  Last year was a nightmare and he still ended up with 200 fantasy points which put him 15th overall for running backs.  He has too much talent for a team to give up on him.  Players like Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi might look good now but they are far more likely to be busts.  Many fantasy season epitaphs have been written because of drafting running backs who put up one good year after having previously been unknowns.

 

Finished 15th for RB's (not even overall), for a 1st round pick .  I'm sorry, but that's a COMPLETE bust for a 1st round draft pick, and probably destroyed most people's teams who drafted him.  There's no way you can argue that he returned on anything last year.  Even at a 2nd round ADP this year, if he returns the same numbers as last year he will be a complete bust.  Unless you guys feel like 14 RB's are going to be drafted ahead of him.  I can't find the statistic right now, but for as 'great' as his rookie season was, he got something like 80% of his yards on 14% of his carries.  That doesn't scream consistency to me, especially with his awful play last season.  

 

I agree with Howard carrying a risk as the Bears O-Line completely overperformed last season, but that's a player who put up 85+ yards during each of his last 9 games.

 

Ajayi has been drawing a ton of praise this offseason and Miami actually won 9 of their last 11 games.  I don't think he's as likely to bust as Gurley considering A.)  His QB Is far better B.) The offense is far better, and more balanced  C.)  The O-Line is more robust

[kdko]

5 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

It seems far more running backs average 3.2 or 3.3 yards per carry nowadays than previously. 

 

 

Dude, no it's not, where are you getting that?  40 other RB's finished ahead of him in YPC.  And of the 20 that had over 200 carries, Gurley finished dead last, and the next lowest RB was Forte at 3.7 YPC.  A geriatric, beat up Forte ran the ball better than a RB with 'immense talent.'  Give me a break.  Draft him in the 2nd round at your own peril, I don't want to deal with any Rams offensive player, let alone this headache.  I'll gladly eat crow if he returns on his ADP this year.

[michaelredd9]

20 hours ago, kdko said:

 

Finished 15th for RB's (not even overall), for a 1st round pick .  I'm sorry, but that's a COMPLETE bust for a 1st round draft pick, and probably destroyed most people's teams who drafted him.  There's no way you can argue that he returned on anything last year.  Even at a 2nd round ADP this year, if he returns the same numbers as last year he will be a complete bust.  Unless you guys feel like 14 RB's are going to be drafted ahead of him.  I can't find the statistic right now, but for as 'great' as his rookie season was, he got something like 80% of his yards on 14% of his carries.  That doesn't scream consistency to me, especially with his awful play last season.  

 

 

Sounds to me like you have some anger issues toward Gurley that you need to work through.  Sounds to me like you drafted Gurley and are blaming your poor season on him.  Scoring 200 points is not a complete (no caps necessary) bust.  He was drafted as a rb1 and put up rb2 numbers.  If he had scored 50 more points, he would have been the 7th highest scoring running back.

 

Gurley is a workhorse back.  That is a rarity in today's NFL.  Are you predicting that he is going to average 3.2 yards per carry again this season?  Give me a running back that is going to get 20 touches per game and I'll take my chances.  He is available in the part of the draft after the tier 1 players are gone.  Here are the next 10 players with adps immediately following Gurley.  Which ones are better draft picks than Gurley?

DeAndre Hopkins

Doug Baldwin

Leonard Fournette

Brandin Cooks

Lamar Miller

Allen Robinson

Aaron Rodgers

Demaryius Thomas

Travis Kelce

Sammy Watkins

 

Edited July 5, 2017 by michaelredd9

[kdko]

1 hour ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

Sounds to me like you have some anger issues toward Gurley that you need to work through.  Sounds to me like you drafted Gurley and are blaming your poor season on him.  Scoring 200 points is not a complete (no caps necessary) bust.  He was drafted as a rb1 and put up rb2 numbers.  If he had scored 50 more points, he would have been the 7th highest scoring running back.

 

Gurley is a workhorse back.  That is a rarity in today's NFL.  Are you predicting that he is going to average 3.2 yards per carry again this season?  Give me a running back that is going to get 20 touches per game and I'll take my chances.  He is available in the part of the draft after the tier 1 players are gone.  Here are the next 10 players with adps immediately following Gurley.  Which ones are better draft picks than Gurley?

DeAndre Hopkins

Doug Baldwin

Leonard Fournette

Brandin Cooks

Lamar Miller

Allen Robinson

Aaron Rodgers

Demaryius Thomas

Travis Kelce

Sammy Watkins

 

 

 

I guess having the only counter opinion in this thread, and providing stats colors me angry.  Nice.  Of the people that fall around the same ADP, in a big money league, I would probably hope someone didn't bite on Gronk or TY, or i'd probably just play it safe by going with Rodgers to be honest.  When I've done mock drafts and am in this range, I don't have complete confidence in any of the guys on the board.  Rodgers is for the most part match-up proof and provides the kind of security I like.  

[forever in debt to mo lewis]

3 hours ago, kdko said:

 

 

I guess having the only counter opinion in this thread, and providing stats colors me angry.  Nice.  Of the people that fall around the same ADP, in a big money league, I would probably hope someone didn't bite on Gronk or TY, or i'd probably just play it safe by going with Rodgers to be honest.  When I've done mock drafts and am in this range, I don't have complete confidence in any of the guys on the board.  Rodgers is for the most part match-up proof and provides the kind of security I like.  

 

I can appreciate counter opinions. But you arent really saying alot besides 3.5 ypc, offensive line injuries happen and "I have a video of plays which i admit are cherrypicked".

 

I will admit that I have heard a film guy, that I trust, say he was still down on gurley based on vision...and that was based off what he watched last year....but I think theres a difference in someone watching film and telling me this guys vision doesnt appear to be very good....and then theres a RB actually out there who plays the game and is having issues with his offense, the defensive fronts designed to stop him and frustration.....i think its quite possible those 3 things played a big part in his bad film

 

if we watched demarco murray in 2015 we figured he was washed up and not worth anything right? instead someone ended up with a quality back many rounds later. mccoy averaged 4.4 ypc in 2015...thats not too bad...but a few missed games and so low TD totals and suddenly nobody wanted a part of him either....yet somehow that guy was able to hang an extra yard on ypc, which was already pretty good, a year later

 

I mentioned the offensive line and you told me injuries happen. Ok...so do I plan for that and say the OL is going to be garbage now? I mentioned Goff is in his 2nd year and is going to get all the reps as the starter in camp. I mentioned they have a young, fresh, head coach who did some good things in DC as an offensive coordinator. Should I just assume both of these guys are going to be terrible too and theres no way anything can improve.

 

I can understand if you are a safe guy or prefer other players. But you seem to be complete "doom and gloom" on gurley as if his rookie year was a complete fluke and no situation can improve on a year to year basis.

[kdko]

5 minutes ago, forever in debt to mo lewis said:

 

I can appreciate counter opinions. But you arent really saying alot besides 3.5 ypc, offensive line injuries happen and "I have a video of plays which i admit are cherrypicked".

 

I will admit that I have heard a film guy, that I trust, say he was still down on gurley based on vision...and that was based off what he watched last year....but I think theres a difference in someone watching film and telling me this guys vision doesnt appear to be very good....and then theres a RB actually out there who plays the game and is having issues with his offense, the defensive fronts designed to stop him and frustration.....i think its quite possible those 3 things played a big part in his bad film

 

if we watched demarco murray in 2015 we figured he was washed up and not worth anything right? instead someone ended up with a quality back many rounds later. mccoy averaged 4.4 ypc in 2015...thats not too bad...but a few missed games and so low TD totals and suddenly nobody wanted a part of him either....yet somehow that guy was able to hang an extra yard on ypc, which was already pretty good, a year later

 

I mentioned the offensive line and you told me injuries happen. Ok...so do I plan for that and say the OL is going to be garbage now? I mentioned Goff is in his 2nd year and is going to get all the reps as the starter in camp. I mentioned they have a young, fresh, head coach who did some good things in DC as an offensive coordinator. Should I just assume both of these guys are going to be terrible too and theres no way anything can improve.

 

I can understand if you are a safe guy or prefer other players. But you seem to be complete "doom and gloom" on gurley as if his rookie year was a complete fluke and no situation can improve on a year to year basis.

 

Those are far from the only points i've made.  And I don't think it's really fair to compare those situations.  DeMarco's situation drastically improved when he went to Tennessee from Philly, as did Shady's.  Tennessee is/was a balanced offense which put a lot of emphasis on the run, and could keep his legs fresh with Henry also grinding down the defense.  Buffalo's Lynn is a RB guru of sorts and Tyrod is always able to keep defenses off balance.  Both Shady and Gillislee thrived running in that offense.  Enter Gurley, who arguably has the worst QB in the league, a revamped line (we'll see how they mesh), and an offense that lacks any real options.  Robert Woods struggled as the #1 WR in Buffalo and is now going to play for an even worse QB.  For the same reasons they stacked the box against Gurley last year, they didn't add enough to prevent teams from doing it this year as well.  Coaches and defenses are going to continue challenging Goff to throw the ball.  I don't believe in this team, and I see them playing from behind a lot of the time and having to abandon the run altogether, as well as not having many redzone opportunities.