Scouts Inc. Mock

[THE SIX KINGS]

Will 49ers keep or deal No. 1 pick?

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Scouts Inc.

 

 

Our scouts have been tracking the top NFL prospects since last summer, evaluating their in-season performances both on film and in person, comparing notes with NFL personnel experts, and scouting all-star games and the NFL combine. Individual scouting reports from that legwork can be found in DraftTracker.

 

Below is our fourth crack at mapping out the first round. We'll be scouting individual workouts, as well as zeroing in on NFL teams' ever-changing needs to make sure our projections remain accurate and realistic.

 

* = underclassman

 

2005 NFL draft, projected first round

 

1. San Francisco 49ers (2-14)

Aaron Rodgers* | QB | California

One rumor that is picking up speed has the 49ers dealing this pick in exchange for Chargers QB Philip Rivers. OK, so it's only a rumor, one of many that make the rounds at this time of the year. Both teams have denied it, and it might not come to fruition, but it's an interesting thought. If they don't make a trade, the 49ers are left with a difficult decision. In our opinion, WR Braylon Edwards is the top-overall rated player in the 2005 draft, but the Niners need a quarterback much more than they need a receiver. Personnel officials across the country seem to be split between Rodgers and Utah's Alex Smith as this year's top-rated quarterback, but we think Rodgers gets the slight edge because of his greater arm strength and experience in a pro-style system.

 

2. Miami Dolphins (4-12)

Ronnie Brown | RB | Auburn

The Dolphins' best bet would be trading down in order to acquire extra picks, but that scenario is unlikely. New head coach Nick Saban and his staff have addressed needs along the offensive line and throughout the defense via free agency, which leaves the running back and quarterback positions as the most glaring weaknesses. Saban must first decide if A.J. Feeley is his quarterback in the future. If not, drafting a quarterback would be the right move. If, however, Saban can live with Feeley as his franchise quarterback, drafting one of three top running backs in this class -- Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown and Carnell Williams -- becomes the next best move because there simply isn't an offensive tackle who warrants consideration with the second overall pick. Benson might be the more powerful runner and Williams might be the most elusive, but Brown is the best overall running back in this year's draft. Brown is big, strong and fast enough to carry a heavy load in the NFL and he also possesses considerably better skills in the passing game than those of Benson and Williams.

 

3. Cleveland Browns (4-12)

Alex Smith* | QB | Utah

Like the two teams ahead of them, the Browns would ideally like to trade down, acquire extra picks and get a better value on one of three mid-to-late round offensive tackle prospects in this draft class -- Alex Barron, Jammal Brown and Khalif Barnes. Assuming, however, they get stuck at No. 3, new GM Phil Savage has to decide whether he wants to draft his quarterback of the future -- Smith or Rodgers, depending on which is available -- or go in a different direction. Judging by Savage's game-plan when he was helping control things in Baltimore, Savage would like to build the rest of the team first and then plug in the quarterback later. The problem, however, is that there just isn't an elite defensive prospect worth picking at No. 3. The Browns have most recently addressed needs along their offensive line (Joe Andruzzi and Cosey Coleman) and at cornerback (Gary Baxter), which may signal Savage's realization that his best draft-day value will be at quarterback. Smith is one of the most intelligent and consistent quarterbacks to come out of the collegiate ranks in years and he solidified a top spot in this year's draft with a recent awe-inspiring workout on campus. He will need time to develop physically and that may be the exact reason for acquiring veteran QB Trent Dilfer.

 

4. Chicago Bears (5-11)

Braylon Edwards | WR | Michigan

Don't be shocked if the Bears use this pick on a wide receiver, even after signing Muhsin Muhammad to a long-term deal. The Bears have enough young talent on defense, but they desperately need more playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. The team might draft one of the top three running backs, but Edwards is the best available prospect at a position with similar need. Adding Muhammad and Edwards in one offseason could be just what QB Rex Grossman and RB Thomas Jones need. Finally, some think that the Bears will shy away from using another top pick on a Michigan wide receiver, but that theory is ridiculous. For starters, the current regime wasn't in place when the Bears drafted David Terrell. Secondly, Edwards is bigger and faster than Terrell and he made far more big plays at the collegiate level than Terrell did. Edwards is the best receiver in this year's draft and he has elite NFL potential.

 

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11)

Carnell Williams | RB | Auburn

The Buccaneers could go in several different directions with this pick, including RB, OT, OG, QB, WR, DT or DB. Looking at the probabilities regarding how the top of the draft board will unfold, RB is likely to be the position that the Bucs will get their best value with the fifth overall pick. While Benson is a better fit for an offense looking for a load-carrying power runner, Williams is a better fit for Jon Gruden's version of the West Coast offense. Williams still needs to improve as a blocker, but he's the shiftiest and most elusive of the top three backs (Brown and Benson) and has the hands to become a legitimate weapon as a receiver out of the backfield. It also won't hurt Williams' chances that Gruden fell in love with him while coaching him at the Senior Bowl.

 

6. Tennessee Titans (5-11)

Adam Jones* | DC | West Virginia

The needs keep piling up thanks to another free agency mass exodus. Considering both of last year's starting cornerbacks (Rolle and Andre Dyson) are gone, the rebuilding Titans could really use a playmaker like Jones on defense and special teams. Not only does Jones have the cover skills, speed and toughness to develop into a shutdown cornerback in the NFL, he also has loads of upside as an NFL return specialist.

 

7. Minnesota Vikings (from Raiders) (8-8)

Mike Williams* | WR | USC

The Vikings have few needs to address and can really focus in on the ones they do have with two first-round picks thanks to the Randy Moss (Raiders) deal. The team did sign Travis Taylor in free agency, but it plans on using him in the slot. Nate Burleson is entrenched as a starter but Marcus Robinson is aging and inconsistent. In all reality, the Vikings have great depth at the position, but they lack a premier No. 1 now that Moss is gone. Williams might not possess Moss' freakish talents, but he's a dynamic weapon in his own right. Running in the 4.5s at the combine really solidified Williams as a top-10 selection and the corps of Williams, Burleson, Robinson and Taylor could make the transition a lot easier than expected for QB Daunte Culpepper.

 

8. Arizona Cardinals (6-10)

Cedric Benson | RB | Texas

If the board unraveled as such, Dennis Green and company would have a difficult decision to make between Benson, and Miami DC Antrel Rolle. Running backs have a tendency to slip on draft day, but Benson is one of three outstanding prospects in this year's class and Green is notorious for drafting offense ahead of defense. Benson doesn't have great speed or elusiveness, but he's a north-south runner with great vision, size and power. He would instantly solidify one of the team's most glaring weaknesses after Emmitt Smith's retirement.

 

9. Washington Redskins (6-10)

Antrel Rolle | DC | Miami-Fla.

Rolle has the size, instincts, toughness and athletic ability to quickly become a solid starter in the NFL. His biggest obstacle in solidifying a potential spot in the top-10 was proving that he was fast enough to turn and run with NFL receivers. His recent 4.49 in the 40-yard dash should ease those worries. With DC Fred Smoot's departure, Rolle would be the best match for the Redskins at No. 9.

 

10. Detroit Lions (6-10)

Alex Barron | OT | Florida State

The Lions could use a playmaker at defensive end, but finding a replacement for the departed Stockar McDougle at right tackle is more glaring. Barron needs to become more physical, but he has the size, strength and feet to develop into a starting right or left tackle in the NFL.

 

11. Dallas Cowboys (6-10)

Derrick Johnson | OLB | Texas

The Cowboys have been busy in free agency, addressing needs at defensive tackle (Jason Ferguson), quarterback (Drew Bledsoe) and cornerback (Anthony Henry). However, they are still in pursuit of upgrades at wide receiver, offensive tackle (ROT) and OLB/DE. Linebackers have a tendency to slip on draft day, but Johnson is too athletic to slip very far. He still needs to become more physical and learn to take on blocks, but Johnson has Derrick Brooks-like potential and would give Bill Parcells a lot of versatility as the Cowboys make the conversion to more 3-4 looks on defense.

 

12. San Diego Chargers (12-4)

Shawn Merriman* | OLB/DE | Maryland

The Chargers were tied for the third-fewest sacks in the league (29) in 2004 and they need to use this selection to improve that area. Merriman has the speed, athleticism and pass-rushing skills to immediately upgrade the Chargers' defense in that department, and he is a "tweener" DE/OLB prospect who would fit perfectly as a rush linebacker in the 3-4 scheme.

 

13. Houston Texans (7-9)

David Pollack | DE | Georgia

If Barron is already taken, the Texans' focus will likely shift to the OLB position in their 3-4 defensive scheme. The team used a first-round pick on Jason Babin in 2004 and, while he did make strides late last season, the team still needs a legitimate pass rusher and playmaker opposite him. Pollack might lack ideal size and top-end speed, but he has the quickness, power and playmaking instincts to immediately contribute in the NFL. Furthermore, his best fit might be as a 3-4 rush linebacker.

 

14. Carolina Panthers (7-9)

Troy Williamson* | WR | South Carolina

The Panthers have a No. 1 in Steve Smith and a No. 3 in Keary Colbert, but they could really use another receiver with the size and speed to draw attention on the opposite side of Smith. In our opinion, Williams would be the perfect fit. Williams is finally beginning to get the credit that he deserves after running in the 4.3s at the combine. He has the size, long arms, hands and explosive speed to quickly develop into a deep threat in the NFL.

 

15. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)

Marcus Spears | DE | LSU

A DE would help most, followed by a corner who can hold up in man-to-man coverage and then some speed/youth at the WR position. The Chiefs have a decent starting combo at DE in Jared Allen and Eric Hicks, but they really are missing depth and size at the position. Spears would be a good fit, as he is a "tweener" DE/DT who could really make an impact as an interior pass rusher and play in a rotation that would give Allen and Hicks a breather while beefing up the line on first and second downs. Spears is currently rehabilitating an ACL injury he suffered while training for the combine, but he is expected to make a full recovery by early April. If he can run well (in the 4.8 range), Spears should land in the 10-20 range of the first round.

 

16. New Orleans Saints (8-8)

Travis Johnson | DT | Florida State

The Saints would really like to address their glaring lack of athleticism at linebacker with this selection, but the value isn't there. Instead of reaching, the Saints can get a great value at a position that unfortunately is still a weakness, despite drafting Johnathan Sullivan in the first round just two years ago. After struggling through some off-the-field issues that affected his play early in his career at FSU, Johnson had a breakout season as a full-time starter in 2004. In our opinion, he's the best defensive tackle in this year's draft class and has a chance to make a huge impact early in his NFL career as a one-gap penetrating DT with enough bulk and strength to hold the point of attack.

 

17. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)

Erasmus James | DE | Wisconsin

The Bengals lessened the need at defensive tackle with the addition of Bryan Robinson, but if Johnson is still available he should be the team's pick. The other big area of need that the Bengals could address here is defensive end, where a pass rusher opposite Justin Smith is desperately needed. If James slips to 17, he'd be just as appealing as Johnson. James' less-than-impressive workout at the combine and his history of injuries might have some teams concerned about his NFL playmaking ability. However, he's the best pure pass-rushing DE in this class and is worth taking a chance on in the middle of the first round.

 

18. Minnesota Vikings (8-8)

Dan Cody | DE | Oklahoma

After using their first selection (No. 7) on a wide receiver to help overcome the loss of Moss, the Vikings will have some more options with this pick. The team has been moving and shaking in free agency, addressing needs all over its defense with the additions of DT Pat Williams, LBs Napoleon Harris and Sam Cowart, DC Fred Smoot and DS Darren Sharper. The only position left on that side of the ball needing an upgrade is defensive end, and drafting a pass rusher like Cody would help to solidify things in a hurry. Cody has the athleticism, speed and instincts to step in as a rookie and immediately make an impact.

 

19. St. Louis Rams (8-8)

Jammal Brown | OT | Oklahoma

The Rams could use upgrades at defensive end and right tackle but, now that it is clear that Kyle Turley will not return, neither of those needs is as pressing as the one at right tackle. Brown needs to become more physical, but he has the size and feet to develop into a solid starter in the NFL.

 

20. Dallas Cowboys (6-10)

Shaun Cody | DE | USC

After addressing their need at OLB with the 11th overall pick, the Cowboys should turn their attention to finding either a vertical threat at wide receiver or a defensive lineman who can make an immediate impact. The team is slowly moving to a 3-4, but it still needs depth at the DT/DE position, as DE Greg Ellis fits more as a rush linebacker than he does a 3-4 end. Cody is a "tweener" DE/DT who would be a perfect fit as a one-gap penetrating DT next to La'Roi Glover and could also play the DE position when the team is in its 3-4 look.

 

21. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7)

Khalif Barnes | OT | Washington

The Jaguars addressed their most glaring need (DE) with the free-agency addition of Reggie Hayward. Finding an upgrade over Mike Pearson at LOT is the next objective. Barnes has had a huge postseason, as he has wowed NFL brass at both the Senior Bowl and combine. He clearly has the athleticism and size to develop into an above-average starter at the next level. All he needs is good coaching and motivation. He's certainly worth the risk late in the first round.

 

22. Baltimore Ravens (9-7)

Roddy White | WR | Alabama-Birmingham

By adding WR Derrick Mason and DC Samari Rolle via free agency, the Ravens have given themselves a lot of draft-day flexibility. However, with Travis Taylor gone, the team still needs WR depth. White left the Senior Bowl earl with a hamstring injury, but he proved during the first couple days of practice that he has the speed and playmaking capability to make a difference in the vertical passing game at the next level. He doesn't have elite size, but White has the speed to draw attention away from Mason, which is something the Ravens lack on their roster right now.

 

23. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

Carlos Rogers | DC | Auburn

After losing Ken Lucas via free agency, the corner position is weakened to the point Kelly Herndon is penciled in as the starter opposite Marcus Trufant. While addressing the linebacker corps is a greater need, Rogers is a better value at this point than any of the available linebackers. Rogers has good size and speed. Most importantly, he is a physical cover corner with the athletic ability and confidence to play both man-to-man and zone coverage in the NFL.

 

24. Green Bay Packers (10-6)

Thomas Davis* | S | Georgia

The Packers need help at linebacker and a replacement for Darren Sharper at safety. Davis can't do both, but he should be able to solve one of those problems. Davis played OLB early in his collegiate career but moved to safety and became an absolute terror as a sideline-to-sideline run stopper. Davis might not have the range and cover skills to develop into a safety in the NFL, but he has bulked up to 230 pounds and ran a 4.6 at the combine. In our opinion, Davis has a chance to develop into an athletic OLB in the NFL or an "in-the-box" SS type. Either way, Davis would provide an upgrade for the Packers' defense.

 

25. Denver Broncos (10-6)

Demarcus Ware | DE | Troy

After losing Reggie Hayward (Jaguars) via free agency, the Broncos need a young perimeter pass-rushing presence and Ware could be just the answer. He's a "tweener" DE/OLB who fits perfectly as a rush linebacker in the team's new 3-4 scheme.

 

26. New York Jets (10-6)

Heath Miller* | TE | Virginia

The Jets' most glaring weakness on either side of the ball is at cornerback, but their second-biggest need is at tight end after Anthony Becht fled to Tampa Bay. Furthermore, Miller is a much better value than any cornerback the Jets could get with this pick. Miller lacks Todd Heap- and Tony Gonzalez-type speed, but he's just a notch below the elite in terms of playmaking ability. He has very good size, is a smooth athlete, has a terrific feel for the passing game and might have the best hands of any skill position player in this draft. There are some concerns right now about a lingering sports hernia injury that kept him from working out at the combine.

 

27. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)

Fabian Washington | DC | Nebraska

The Falcons have bigger needs. They could entertain the idea of drafting Oklahoma's Brodney Pool, the best true free safety prospect in this year's class, but they picked up Ronnie Heard and Rich Coady via free agency. The next biggest need is at defensive tackle, but there isn't a player close to matching this value at the position. Finally, they also could pounce on one of the top three offensive tackles -- Barron, Brown and Barnes -- if one is still around at No. 27. So, if the draft board plays out like this, drafting another young potential star cornerback to play opposite DeAngelo Hall wouldn't be a bad idea, especially if Jason Webster is your No. 2 CB at this point. No player improved his stock at the combine more than Washington, who ran one of the fastest 40-yard dash times (4.25) in the history of the event.

 

28. San Diego Chargers (12-4)

Mark Clayton | WR | Oklahoma

If the Chargers improve their pass rush with the 12th overall selection, their attention should turn to the other side of the ball with pick No. 28. Roddy White would make sense if he slips, but Clayton is just as good of a value -- if not better. Clayton's lack of size is somewhat concerning, but he has very good speed, exceptional hands and is a threat after the catch.

 

29. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)

Channing Crowder* | ILB | Florida

The Colts made the right decision parting ways with former starting MLB Rob Morris because he just didn't fit. He will be a good run-plugger in a different uniform, but he didn't have the speed or cover skills that are necessary to play in the cover-2. Crowder is still raw, but he's a good athlete with a mean streak. His range and agility make him a much better fit for Tony Dungy's scheme.

 

30. Pittsburgh Steelers (15-1)

Marlin Jackson | DC | Michigan

The Steelers have other needs at right tackle, defensive end, wide receiver, tight end and free safety, but none of them are pressing. The Steelers say they are content with their cornerback position, but if that's the truth they are missing something. Ricardo Colclough should emerge as a solid starter next season and Deshea Townsend is decent at the other corner, but Chad Scott was a cap casualty and Willie Williams is 34-years old. By drafting Jackson, the Steelers could solidify this position for the future. Townsend could eventually move inside to the slot position, where he fits best, and the Steelers would have an excellent young tandem of Colclough and Jackson on the perimeter.

 

31. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)

Matt Roth | DE | Iowa

After re-signing DT Corey Simon and MLB Jeremiah Trotter, the Eagles' only needs in the draft are for depth purposes. Look for them to add a guard/tackle, wide receiver, running back, defensive lineman, linebacker and safety if they keep all five of their day-one picks. Roth has the athleticism, quickness, instincts and tenacity to provide quality reps as a rookie. With Derrick Burgess leaving town and Jerome McDougle failing to stay healthy, this also is the safest pick.

 

32. New England Patriots (14-2)

Odell Thurman* | ILB | Georgia

The Patriots have needs at cornerback and along their offensive line, but inside linebacker is the most pressing now that the team is fairly confident that Tedy Bruschi (heart) is gone for at least one season. However, he has the physical tools of a late-first-round pick and was a vacuum when on the field during his two-year stint at Georgia.

[Rovers]

This is about the most reasonable mock I've seen so far. There arent a lot of picks to argue with. The one thing this, and any other mock cant reliably do, is figure out the surprise picks.... and there are always a few of them.

[seminoles]

This is about the most reasonable mock I've seen so far. There arent a lot of picks to argue with. The one thing this, and any other mock cant reliably do, is figure out the surprise picks.... and there are always a few of them.

762595[/snapback]

like a said before, rick mirer is going to be picked by some team. Im guessing the bears.

[Chargerz]

I could see Merriman and Clayton going to the Bolts although this would not address their need of a quality defensive lineman.

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Scouts Inc. sucks.

[Rovers]

Scouts Inc. sucks.

 

762729[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

C'mon Swiss, tell us how you really feel!

[policyvote]

This is a great "baseline" mock. Lots of mocks floating around out there have a couple of oddbal picks up high, which really alter the flow of the rest of the round. This makes a lot of reasonable assumptions, and every pick is a solid one. There are no picks where you say "Oh, gimme a break!" or even, "Naw, they don't go that way there."

 

The few nits I have to pick:

 

* Ced Benson is falling, and falling fast. Even though it's been assumed that the Cards will take one of the Big Three RBs if available, Benson's slipping stock and the depth of the first ten picks leads me to believe Benson will take a tumble. I think the Cards' pick will determine how the rest of the draft shapes up. They could reasonably take Benson, a corner, Johnson, or even Barron. My money is actually on Johnson.

 

* I still say that if DJ falls to the Lions, they will swap spots with Dallas and take Barron or Rolle. My heart is set on Barron but the latest rumors from Allen Park point to Rolle as the Lions' target.

 

* I don't like the Carolina WR pick. Steve Smith and Keary Colbert is more than sufficient for now. I'd see them make a move on the OL first, such as Brown or Barnes.

 

Peace

policy