10 team mock draft

[emandg]

(10 team performance league, snaking draft) I was doing some mock workups and gauging how my league will flow - I have the first overall pick - and it appears that after picking Manning the likes of Tiki, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones and Rudi Johnson will be available at picks 20 and 21 (tier 2 back guaranteed thanks to people reaching for Ahman Green and C Mart earlier and the QB boom for Mcnab and CPep - I realize not all will go by 2nd but 2 or 3 will) and probably Steve Smith, Roy Williams and DJax or similar talent available at the 4th and 5th round (seems solid).

 

I did a similar workup for LT and the scenario looked like a choise of one of the tier 2 guys above and a top wide reciever (probably CJ) - picking up Steve, Roy, DJax int the 4th and a QB in the 5th.

 

I know there are other scenarios but I am sticking with what I think is most likely - what do you think about the 2 options? Seems Peyton should be drafted first.

[emandg]

One more thing - I 100% agree LT is the first pick in a 12 team league - playing catch up on other positions in a larger draft will leave you with a subpar roster. You can't pick QB and then go WR WR (thats whack) and have no RB's of value and the backs you can pick up at 2 and 3 (24th and 25th pick overall) are gambles at that point if you go with Manning.

[Roo]

I am in a 10 team league, and I have been working that same scenario. I pick 3rd, but have good reason to believe that 1 and 2 will be LT and Alex.

 

With passing TDs worth 4, and worried that I won't be able to get 2-3 decent RBs, I am hesitant to go for Manning.

 

But you're right if you make a couple assumptions (Moss, Pepper, and either McNabb or TO get taken early-mid 2nd round) there are still some solid choices at RB by the time the snake comes back around. It's close though, and you might end up with C.Mart or someone else you don't actually want so much.

 

With a 12 team, I would never risk it, but with a 10 team I think I can pick Manning safely, and cross my fingers I can get someone like Rudi or Tiki or J.Jones on the return, and then potentially La Mont or a rookie in the 3rd.

 

If you pick 1st in a 10 team, and you take Manning, there is the potential for you to get stuck - you might be exactly where McNabb and Holt etc are falling to you, but you can't take them, so you'd reach for two RBs. Tough call.

[Ralph Furley]

I agree with your thinking. I too would probably take Manning hoping that your assumptions are correct in where other players may fall in the draft.

[Donutrun Jellies]

In a 10? Maybe. I live in a 14 ... and by the time the serpentine comes around, the RB motor pool has nothing but yugos and fiestas on blocks ... But a 10? Manning plus JJones & Lamont? Life might be good ... Still, if the #2 gets LT, Rudi, & Bulger ... Hmmm.

[Wolv]

In the 10 man mocks I've done, RBs dominate the first 2 rounds. You may very well be looking at Tier 3 RBs for yer starters.

 

RB is deep this year tho - so its not as much of a gamble...

[Lucky Jack]

I pick 5th in a 10 team league (add the complexity of 6 points for passing TDs and starting 3 rbs...so QBs and RBs are very important). I hope Manning drops to me (but he won't). In all the Mocks I've done I can get a tier two back in the second an upside (usually L.Jordan or T.Bell) in the 3rd...I think the RB pool is very deep generally, and deeper still in a 10 team league.

 

Now, if I had the 1 or 2 pick, I would take LT or Priest/Shaun, pick up J.Jones, Rudi or Tiki in the second and then grab McNabb coming around the horn (in many of the drafts I've done on Ants, he is still around at 3.05...so w/ Owens maybe reporting, I would guess he moves up a couple of slots...I have not seen many 2nd round QB runs (at least not on the SMDs).

 

At #1, if the stars align...you go LT, Julius, McNabb and then get a good tier 2 receiver, like Roy...also noted that Walker is dropping like a stone...so depends on your risk profile...

 

...good luck...

[BS Miscreant]

From a previous thread:

I'd like to add to this that I expected more variety in the first two rounds this year but having done several mocks I decide to check out what MFLs and Antsports mocks are looking like and they seem to follow the same trend. According to last year's mocks and drafts, 12-13 RBs were typically going in the first two rounds. This year 17-18 typically and up to 20 RBs are going in the first two. You can actually land a top 5 rated WR in the third. In fact, in a serious mock I'm in right now, CJ, Holt and Harrison all went in the 3rd. This was a ridiculous prospect last year in the drafts I was in.

 

The theory: Although Manning is going much higher this year, most people seem to be feeling that they can actually have two quality starters at RB with their first two picks regardless of draft position. Instead of the apparent RB depth carrying more "quality" backs deeper into the draft it has created an early run more often than not.

 

I don't know how, exactly, you are doing your "mock workups" but from what I've seen there's about a snowball's chance in hell that Tiki, KJ, Julius or Rudi will be available at the end of round 2. If you want to base your "pick Manning #1" argument on getting some lesser RBs fine but don't count on those four.

[Roo]

Strong point BS - I agree that the trend this year seems to be everyone landing two RBs because you can get two studs from almost any slot. The unusual depth at RB has actually made them go faster.

 

That's why I say you can't pick Manning first in a 12 team league. And it's still risky in a 10 team league. I rank manning 6th in 12 team leagues, and 3rd in 10 team leagues.

 

That way you assume if at least Manning, Moss, and/or Pepper go in the 1st or 2nd round, you'll still are guaranteed a feature back.