rattsass Posted December 21, 2006 Share Posted December 21, 2006 My book is starting to piss me off! Money keeps coming in on the Packers, but instead of moving the line they just keep bumping up the tag. If I want to bet the Packers now it sits at -3 (-135). I'm not making that bet. Holding out to see if they will drop it to 3.5 at some point today. They are desperately trying to stop the flood of Packers bets, or lessen the impact it would seem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 21, 2006 Share Posted December 21, 2006 My book is starting to piss me off! Money keeps coming in on the Packers, but instead of moving the line they just keep bumping up the tag. If I want to bet the Packers now it sits at -3 (-135). I'm not making that bet. Holding out to see if they will drop it to 3.5 at some point today. They are desperately trying to stop the flood of Packers bets, or lessen the impact it would seem. Â Â Same as mine - can get Minny +3.5 for -107. They've essentially set the game at 3.5, but forced the half point buy on packers bettors. Â I still took the pack (mostly cause it's part of a parlay that I can't buy points into, so the 3 is key - brought the odds down a bit, but not enough to worryabout). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 21, 2006 Share Posted December 21, 2006 Same as mine - can get Minny +3.5 for -107. They've essentially set the game at 3.5, but forced the half point buy on packers bettors. Â I still took the pack (mostly cause it's part of a parlay that I can't buy points into, so the 3 is key - brought the odds down a bit, but not enough to worryabout). Â I got the Pack as part of a parlay on Tuesday for -3 (-115), but was hoping to make a small straight wager as well, but I ain't paying -135 to do it. Â Then again my service still doesn't even offer the Jags/Pats game at all. Is this the case where you "shop" also? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 22, 2006 Author Share Posted December 22, 2006 The game tonight is a tough read. Looking at the numbers, my system is favoring the Vikings. It has the line at a pickem. My system cannot cap intangibles, such as the whole "Farve's last game" (this may not even be his last year, he is as wishy-washy as they come, but even if he is undecided, that should still make his teammates believe he may walk away, and try to send him off w/ a big W) and the rookie QB starting. Â They keep flashing up stats such as Farve throwing 417 TDs and Jackson has 1 TD. Â Do we really think a rookie QB will come in here and beat the vet Farve? Â I am looking at the weather page http://www.thehuddle.com/nfl/fantasy_football_weather.php and it says "ice pellets". Obviously a Farve is much more comfortable playing in these conditions compared to Jackson. Â Both have covered evenly ATS. Truthfully, people want to say that this won't come down to the numbers. They will say that it's impossible for GB to lose here. Â And that is what makes me want to take Minny even more. These emotional factors tend to play on the game, and I have learned many lessons and the main one is to not ride as large on games where emotion is a huge factor. Â At Pinny you can buy Minn +5 at -118. GB -3.5 is -111, and -3 is -141. Â I'll buy to Minn +5 and also take Over 37.5 Â Not a really strong play, but just a small action play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 22, 2006 Share Posted December 22, 2006 Well, at least one of us will win..............here's hoping for a 4 point Pack victory so we can both walk away happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 22, 2006 Author Share Posted December 22, 2006 (edited) Ratt - I am sitting here at home while my wife is in Texas so I'll be doing in game betting in case I get the feeling Pack will walk away w/ this one. I'll let you know. Â My bets are pretty small on this game compared to most. I'll still count it as part of my record - but the main thing is to come out of the night w/ + money. Â Games that offer live betting while I am at home w/ my comp, I usually try to take advantage of it. Â Sorry for posting so late - busy as hell today. I'm sure many of us will be busy w/ family this weekend, as will I, so I will try & post the majority of my weekend plays tomorrow. Â Good luck to you and let's pull for that GB -4 victory! Edited December 22, 2006 by Steeltown Dre Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 22, 2006 Share Posted December 22, 2006 plays opposite the way the cash came in was lucrative. most people had the pack/over, oregon,over. i think the money came in at about 75/25 percent on all those plays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 22, 2006 Share Posted December 22, 2006 plays opposite the way the cash came in was lucrative. most people had the pack/over, oregon,over. i think the money came in at about 75/25 percent on all those plays. Â Â Yet, the Pack still would have covered the spread if Bubba Franks hadn't played the game under the influence of crack. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 22, 2006 Share Posted December 22, 2006 one of those "should have covered" when looking at the stats - turnovers and missed FG are so crucial to the gambling side of things... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 22, 2006 Share Posted December 22, 2006 Man, just been thinking about that game - that's the sort of game that should tell us gambling better be nothing more than a hobby....beyond the stat domination, you got a guy slipping on a FG, and a weird fumble on the half yard line...those things are just "football" but they make all the "systems" in the world irrelevant. Â My best bet this week is Buffalo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 22, 2006 Share Posted December 22, 2006 next friday dec. 29th we have clemson vs. kentucky in the music city bowl in nashville. the starting qb of clemson was just nabbed on a Josh Gordon possession and won't play. line is kentucky +9.5. get in before it moves. over/under is a steep 57.5 which looks like a decent under now despite kentucky's lack of defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerwin8 Posted December 22, 2006 Share Posted December 22, 2006 next friday dec. 29th we have clemson vs. kentucky in the music city bowl in nashville. the starting qb of clemson was just nabbed on a Josh Gordon possession and won't play. line is kentucky +9.5. get in before it moves. over/under is a steep 57.5 which looks like a decent under now despite kentucky's lack of defense. Â Â Â Before everyone thinks they are making a bet that they actually aren't making... that would be the starting CORNERBACK who got suspended, not the qb. Â That said, Duane Coleman is still one of Clemson's defensive leaders, and easily the best defensive back on the team. Losing him will certainly change the game, but not quite as much as losing a QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 22, 2006 Author Share Posted December 22, 2006 Thanks for the insight crispirons - I'll look into it. Â Came in w/ another winner last night in Min+5. Definitely not a great way to win - thought we would lose it but a win is a win. Â I was wrong w/ the over, but w/ more riding on Min+5 that's another winning day in the NFL, although not much was wagered so not much was won. Â As for this weekend - really busy but here's what I am thinking. I would advise being hesitant on taking KC for -7. I have them right now for -4.5. If I can get Oak for +7 I may try for the middle. Â Public is all over KC and to the tune of 81% ATS out of 22,000 + bets. Â Be very cautions. The same w/ Chi - I am not wagering on Chi nor Det. 91% of 16,000 + bets are on Chi. I am staying away. Â I do like Buffalo, like some here do, despite the Titans ability to cover. A whopping 97% of the 15,000 + bets are calling for Ten ML. Â I think I said earlier I liked Balt - but w/o Odgen I am not as sure. Still, I'm not going to put money on Pitt. May take Balt or maybe a no play. Â Although my system finds some value in the Dolphins, I personally lean to the Jets. Only concern - 98% of ML bets are on the Jets. Â That's all I have right now - I'll be back on Sun to let you know of my plays. Good luck w/ your wagering! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 22, 2006 Share Posted December 22, 2006 Before everyone thinks they are making a bet that they actually aren't making... that would be the starting CORNERBACK who got suspended, not the qb. Â That said, Duane Coleman is still one of Clemson's defensive leaders, and easily the best defensive back on the team. Losing him will certainly change the game, but not quite as much as losing a QB. Â Â Â sorry about the erroneous report. just saw that myself. i still like kentucky quite a bit. clemson, coming into this game has been struggling at the end of the yr. i sense disappointment that they didn't get a better bowl. looks like a good dog play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 i got in on south florida earlier in the week and got them at -4. right now, they are 5.5. i'm actually glad we had an underdog outright win (troy) last night. i would have hated to see this game (south fla/east carolina) be the first one of the bowl season. i like tulsa tonight as well. in fact, a three team 6 pt teaser (9/5) of south fla +1/2, tulsa +7.5, and the chiefs -1 looks like a decent play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 i got in on south florida earlier in the week and got them at -4. right now, they are 5.5. i'm actually glad we had an underdog outright win (troy) last night. i would have hated to see this game (south fla/east carolina) be the first one of the bowl season. i like tulsa tonight as well. in fact, a three team 6 pt teaser (9/5) of south fla +1/2, tulsa +7.5, and the chiefs -1 looks like a decent play. Â I took S. Fla, San Jose, and Tulsa today. For some reason I am scared that the Raiders pull the upset and will steer clear of that game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 Not so sure about Tulsa today. If you look at end of season momentum, it does not seem to favor Tulsa. I like San Jose though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 i couldn't play that san jose/new mexico game. way too much money coming in on san jose to think they get a fair shake. over 90% of moneyline on san jose and over 75% on the spread. i got tulsa +8 in the teaser and i like it. they should have a slight home field advantage in that game over the utes and i saw the utes a few times this yr. unimpressive. Â halftime spread of south fla/east carolina is eastcarolina -1.5 and over/under 20.5. both qb's got banged up in the first half and may be ineffective. i already have the over 43 in a play and over 37 in a teaser and i'm going to come back on the under 2nd half. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted December 23, 2006 Share Posted December 23, 2006 (edited) halftime spread of south fla/east carolina is eastcarolina -1.5 and over/under 20.5. both qb's got banged up in the first half and may be ineffective. i already have the over 43 in a play and over 37 in a teaser and i'm going to come back on the under 2nd half. Â Nice job on the 2nd half Under! 0 points in 2nd half. Edited December 23, 2006 by Trots Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinatieri Is God Posted December 24, 2006 Share Posted December 24, 2006 i got tulsa +8 in the teaser and i like it. Â That BS touchdown for Utah killed you at the end. Â I like Arizona State tonight. And, as a blind homer, it's impossible for me to be impartial towards the Pats, but I think they are in a good spot today. Ever since Brady and Belichick have hooked up, these are the kinds of games the Pats always seem to win. Late in the season, chance to clinch the division, the public thinking the Pats aren't as good (thus the +3), the team only getting one player in the Pro Bowl, etc....Watching these guys as long as I have, I have a feeling today. Close one with a Gostkowski FG to win it. Take next week off and rest the boys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted December 24, 2006 Share Posted December 24, 2006 (edited) That BS touchdown for Utah killed you at the end. Â I like Arizona State tonight. And, as a blind homer, it's impossible for me to be impartial towards the Pats, but I think they are in a good spot today. Ever since Brady and Belichick have hooked up, these are the kinds of games the Pats always seem to win. Late in the season, chance to clinch the division, the public thinking the Pats aren't as good (thus the +3), the team only getting one player in the Pro Bowl, etc....Watching these guys as long as I have, I have a feeling today. Close one with a Gostkowski FG to win it. Take next week off and rest the boys. Â Â I scored on Utah, SJSU, and K.C. yesterday. Â I think that yesterday illustrated that just because the betting public might be all over one side or the other, it really doesn't affect anything in most cases. Â Along those same lines, I will stand in the minority on this thread and stick with the Titans +4.5. I also like the Saints, Jags, Jets, and I will take the Ravens plus the points also. Not feeling particularly strong on any of those plays today though. I will be playing small ball with the bookies today. Edited December 24, 2006 by rattsass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xMRogers Posted December 24, 2006 Share Posted December 24, 2006 Had a great day yest, with a USF/Under parlay, a USF/SJSt ML / Utah parlay and KC straight  Today, like Haw and the over  Like Buf, Jax, Car, and Cleve, and put in a ML parlay of Balt/Cinc/Sea - like three probably playoff teams getting pts  Buffalo is my best bet today (and Hawaii) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted December 24, 2006 Share Posted December 24, 2006 Buffalo is my best bet today  This is a good play today. I like the Bills to win fairly easily and cover this number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted December 24, 2006 Share Posted December 24, 2006 good luck today all. i like the bears first half. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrongheaded Posted December 24, 2006 Share Posted December 24, 2006 Pinnacle Fantasy Matchup analysis here  any comments would be appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.