Bill Swerski Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 I love the denial. "Hell, it happened 23 other times out of 23 times in the past 25 years, but it won't happen this time with Larry Johnson, despite some of the incredible studs on the list above." Okay, so if you are walking down the street 23 days in a row & the old lady next door comes out & kicks you in the nuts every single one of those days - don't you start wearing a cup on day 24? If LJ had been a featured back in the league for 4 or 5 years already, I'd agree with you. But you're really ignoring the relative lack of wear on his tires in comparison to guys like Eddie George and Jamal Anderson. It's a moot point anyway, as KC's offense is geriatric and will likely suck pretty badly this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 I'm picking LJ second. Actually, I'll pick Peyton ahead of him if it's a league that scores 6 points for a passing td. I want nothing to do with SJax. He is big Veronica in my book, regardless of last year. LJ is a beast. LJ has about 2,000 carries left in him. not to hijack but this always makes me or is it that just peyton gets 6pt/td and the rest get 4pts/td? fwiw Manning has only thrown for over 30 TDs 3 times in his career(last yr being his 3rd time) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 fwiw Manning has only thrown for over 30 TDs 3 times in his career(last yr being his 3rd time) It would've been four if Dungy hadn't limited him to one quarter in the last couple games of '05. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cre8tiff Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 If I ever get a pick higher than 5 in any of my leagues, this may affect me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NAUgrad Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 not to hijack but this always makes me or is it that just peyton gets 6pt/td and the rest get 4pts/td? fwiw Manning has only thrown for over 30 TDs 3 times in his career(last yr being his 3rd time) Last year I wouldn't agree with you, but after grabbing Manning in the 2nd round and seeing him not even score the #1 overall points for a QB, I now see your point. Could've had a better starting RB and picked up a good QB later while noticing only a slight drop off in points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted March 12, 2007 Author Share Posted March 12, 2007 (edited) If LJ had been a featured back in the league for 4 or 5 years already, I'd agree with you. But you're really ignoring the relative lack of wear on his tires in comparison to guys like Eddie George and Jamal Anderson. Career carries going into the year following a 370 or more carry season: L Johnson 06 892 S Alexander '05 1717 C Martin '04 3298 R Williams '03 1598 J Lewis '03 1004 R Williams '02 1197 L Tomlinson '02 711 E George '00 1763 E James '00 756 J Anderson '98 973 T Davis '98 1343 J Bettis '97 1491 E Smith '95 2007 B Foster '92 522 E Smith '92 979 C Okoye '89 632 E Dickerson '88 2136 E Dickerson '86 1465 G Riggs '85 928 M Allen '85 1081 J Wilder '84 758 W Payton '84 3047 E Dickerson '84 769 E Dickerson '83 390 J Riggins '83 2413 7 of those occasions, the RB who accumulated 370 or more carries has fewer career carries than Johnson does now (bolded). 3 other occasions, RBs had fewer than 10% more carries (less than 1/2 a season) than Johnson does now (bolded & italicized). The mileage on the tires doesn't seem to be a critical factor. It would be nice if people making that assertion would do a little homework before making that claim, though. Edited March 12, 2007 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wolf Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 Career carries going into the year following a 370 or more carry season: L Johnson 06 892 S Alexander '05 1717 C Martin '04 3298 R Williams '03 1598 J Lewis '03 1004 R Williams '02 1197 L Tomlinson '02 711 E George '00 1763 E James '00 756 J Anderson '98 973 T Davis '98 1343 J Bettis '97 1491 E Smith '95 2007 B Foster '92 522 E Smith '92 979 C Okoye '89 632 E Dickerson '88 2136 E Dickerson '86 1465 G Riggs '85 928 M Allen '85 1081 J Wilder '84 758 W Payton '84 3047 E Dickerson '84 769 E Dickerson '83 390 J Riggins '83 2413 7 of those occasions, the RB who accumulated 370 or more carries has fewer career carries than Johnson does now (bolded). 3 other occasions, RBs had fewer than 10% more carries (less than 1/2 a season) than Johnson does now (bolded & italicized). The mileage on the tires doesn't seem to be a critical factor. It would be nice if people making that assertion would do a little homework before making that claim, though. Where do you find this information that you can compile it relatively quickly? Some of the stats/arguments backed up with statistics I read in here simply amaze me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted March 12, 2007 Author Share Posted March 12, 2007 Where do you find this information that you can compile it relatively quickly? Some of the stats/arguments backed up with statistics I read in here simply amaze me. Link to profootballreference.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 (edited) The mileage on the tires doesn't seem to be a critical factor. It would be nice if people making that assertion would do a little homework before making that claim, though. Speaking of not doing one's homework, I don't see much of a drop-off from LT's '02-'03 numbers or Dickerson's '83-'84 numbers, despite the fact that each were coming off of 370+ carry seasons. Perhaps their miraculous ability to overcome this 370-carry death sentence had something to do with the fact that both were still relatively young in their respective careers? Edited March 12, 2007 by Bill Swerski Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted March 12, 2007 Author Share Posted March 12, 2007 Speaking of not doing one's homework, I don't see much of a drop-off from LT's '02-'03 numbers or Dickerson's '83-'84 numbers, despite the fact that each were coming off of 370+ carry seasons. So how is a 370-carry season a death sentence again? I believe I spoke to that in my initial post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 (edited) I believe I spoke to that in my initial post. How many carries did LT and Dickerson have prior to '03 and '84, respectively? Do you find it just a coincidence that these two avoided your 370-carry death sentence at such an early point in their respective careers? Do you think it's such a stretch that a relatively young buck like LJ could do the same? Edited March 12, 2007 by Bill Swerski Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted March 12, 2007 Author Share Posted March 12, 2007 (edited) How many carries did LT and Dickerson have prior to '03 and '84, respectively? Do you find it just a coincidence that these two avoided your 370-carry death sentence at such an early point in their respective careers? Do you think it's such a stretch that a relatively young buck like LJ could do the same? Even if your assertion were true, and I don't believe it is, you have documented 2 RBs out of 23 who slipped only marginally (and they still did slip in their production), as opposed to 21 others who slipped much more, sometimes in a screaming free fall. So you think that makes the odds of Johnson repeating substantially better? There's still 8 of of 10 instances early in their careers (which I again spoke to above) who had production fall substantially. Maybe you like those kinds of odds with a top 3 pick in a redraft. I'm failing to see the value. You know the old adage - you don't win your league in the first round, but you sure can lose it there. Edited March 12, 2007 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 (edited) Even if your assertion were true, and I don't believe it is, you have documented 2 RBs out of 23 who slipped only marginally (and they still did slip in their production), as opposed to 21 others who slipped much more, sometimes in a screaming free fall. When you find evidence that clearly does not support your thesis, it's always helpful to ask yourself why. You simply cast it aside. I also disagree that Dickerson and LT slipped in production in '84 and '03, respectively. IIRC, both had higher yds/carry and LT was used more as a receiver in '03 than the previous year. I agree with your overall assertion (that is shared by many others), but your data clearly show exceptions to your Law of 370 Carries. The fact that many of the backs in your data set had several seasons with 300+ carries before slipping in production after that "one big season" also biases your results to a certain extent. You know the old adage - you don't win your league in the first round, but you sure can lose it there. LOL, you think that I would draft a halfback who plays on an offense that took almost three full quarters to get a freaking first down in the playoffs? Edited March 12, 2007 by Bill Swerski Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted March 12, 2007 Author Share Posted March 12, 2007 LOL, you think that I would draft a halfback who plays on an offense that took almost three full quarters to get a freaking first down in the playoffs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazysight Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 The loss of Will Shields definitely won't help LJ either... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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