Drafting WR/WR/WR/RB in the 12th slot in a PPR league

[Thews40]

That about sums it up nicely. Even IF you do pick the right 2-3 stud WR's their scoring will drive you crazy. Plus it's too risky waiting so long on RB's. A savy drafting league might leave you with crumbs. Then you might have to end up reaching on draft picks just because YOU NEED RB's. Bottom line is you might pick a competitive squad with this strategy but will likely not field a championship squad. A lot of pieces have to fall into place to make that strategy work.

I'll disagree that the RB situation is that far of a stretch. Chester and Fred are the #1 RB's. Agree that they'll split time, but what is the production expected? I would say a lower tier WR and a hit/miss TE are expected to get 5 or less in any given week. I actually think it sort of helps them stay healthy. Chester was pounded and wore down last year, but if he got 1000 this year it wouldn't shock anyone. I guess the reason I did this was I saw it as my only real chance. I did luck into Tatum as I believed he'd go before I snagged him, but I also missed on Foster. If I would have take Foster earlier, both Carolina RB's would be locked up. The good thing about having both RBBC is you can play them both on the same week to cover a bye. Hindsight is always 20/20, and if I had to do it again I may have taken a QB higher. If it all falls apart I can always deal one of the big WR's to get a RB and still cover both WR slots with studs. One more thing, with WR's like these you get those monster weeks. The end of the first has some very good RB's, but they won't get you insane numbers very often.

[bushwacked]

Bottom line is you might pick a competitive squad with this strategy but will likely not field a championship squad. A lot of pieces have to fall into place to make that strategy work.

 

Over the last few years you still need to be savvy even if you go RB RB at the end of the the first round. Getting a Rudi Johnson to go along with a Cadillac Williams, Kevin Jones, or Willis McGahee didn't cut it. Guys at the top were getting Marvin Harrisons, Reggie Waynes, or Chad Johnsons, to go along with their Larry Johnsons/Ladanian Tomilsons and the Tier 2 WRs are gone before your 3rd pick.

 

There is a fine line whatever you do, at the end of the 1st round...whether you go RB/RB or WR/WR you better hit early and often. The Laurence Maroney's, Travis Henry's, Rudi Johnson's, Cedric Bensons,Clinton Portis's....etc etc...aren't all going to perform like they are supposed to do.

Edited August 13, 2007 by bushwacked

[bushwacked]

Chester was pounded and wore down last year, but if he got 1000 this year it wouldn't shock anyone.

 

That would be at least a moderate surprise to me. He got near 1500 total yards last year, but now he has Peterson to deal with. Not to mention the fact they have seem to have WRs and a QB that would be better off in the CFL. I don't see these guys winning more than 4-5 games, let alone having enough running opportunities between a high draft pick and an incumbent. Not saying I wouldn't draft Taylor, but I think 1000 yards is bit optimistic.

Edited August 13, 2007 by bushwacked

[bushwacked]

The WR/WR pick happens quite a bit even in non PPR leagues.

 

The WR/WR early picks shouldn't be overvalued just because they are in a PPR. The big time WR's will get there points regardless, in a performance league. DMD had a great article a couple years ago, complete with excel graphs, showing how PPR generally benefits the #3/#4 WR types more than anything else. However, there appears to be a several RBs that benefit greatly in a PPR system.

[Randall]

I'll disagree that the RB situation is that far of a stretch. Chester and Fred are the #1 RB's.

 

 

For the moment they are, but you have to project out from day 1.

 

We'll see how it works out.

[Thews40]

For the moment they are, but you have to project out from day 1.

 

We'll see how it works out.

You nailed it with the word “project” as the projections are just a guess based on last year’s data and what could happen, but isn’t what’s going to happen. Bushwacked makes a good point in the Vikings weakness at QB and WR. Bottom line is I’ll be happy if Chester get’s 80 and an occasional TD, but that point total is what I’d expect from a WR drafted in the 6th.

 

Another thing about picking which players hit, S.Smith and C.Johnson are locks to hit if they stay healthy. Teams like the Jets may have a deep drop in WR if the #1 RB gets hurt, while teams that go RBBC with two studs just go with the healthy back. In strategy, if things don’t work out and the later backs don’t hit, you still have an out with the elite WR’s. The beauty of trading a stud WR later is you can do it after the real show starts. Injuries are gonna change things by week 3, so having the data then when it happens makes for less risk.

 

Last year, Bush and Benson went too high, and guys like McAllister, F.Taylor, A. Green fell to the later rounds and had a good year. They are seen as older and fragile, but on the other side of the coin they are battle tested and don't make rookie mistakes. Note on Green, even if he stays healthy I don’t see anything other than average numbers playing in Houston.

[FishFreak]

I'll disagree that the RB situation is that far of a stretch. Chester and Fred are the #1 RB's. Agree that they'll split time, but what is the production expected? I would say a lower tier WR and a hit/miss TE are expected to get 5 or less in any given week. I actually think it sort of helps them stay healthy. Chester was pounded and wore down last year, but if he got 1000 this year it wouldn't shock anyone. I guess the reason I did this was I saw it as my only real chance. I did luck into Tatum as I believed he'd go before I snagged him, but I also missed on Foster. If I would have take Foster earlier, both Carolina RB's would be locked up. The good thing about having both RBBC is you can play them both on the same week to cover a bye. Hindsight is always 20/20, and if I had to do it again I may have taken a QB higher. If it all falls apart I can always deal one of the big WR's to get a RB and still cover both WR slots with studs. One more thing, with WR's like these you get those monster weeks. The end of the first has some very good RB's, but they won't get you insane numbers very often.

 

It's all about how good you feel about your team. Screw what everyone else thinks. How will it actually turn out, who knows? For me, I couldn't go into a season with Chester & Fred as my #1 and #2 RB's regardless of my supporting cast. Fred could easily get hurt as he often has throughout his career and Chester could spend a lot of time watching Peterson on the field. DeAngelo might breakout but you're dealing with too many IFs at RB which spell trouble.

 

Also, trading might not be as easy as you think because your league knows your team needs a RB.

[Randall]

You nailed it with the word “project” as the projections are just a guess based on last year’s data and what could happen, but isn’t what’s going to happen. Bushwacked makes a good point in the Vikings weakness at QB and WR. Bottom line is I’ll be happy if Chester get’s 80 and an occasional TD, but that point total is what I’d expect from a WR drafted in the 6th.

 

Another thing about picking which players hit, S.Smith and C.Johnson are locks to hit if they stay healthy. Teams like the Jets may have a deep drop in WR if the #1 RB gets hurt, while teams that go RBBC with two studs just go with the healthy back. In strategy, if things don’t work out and the later backs don’t hit, you still have an out with the elite WR’s. The beauty of trading a stud WR later is you can do it after the real show starts. Injuries are gonna change things by week 3, so having the data then when it happens makes for less risk.

 

Last year, Bush and Benson went too high, and guys like McAllister, F.Taylor, A. Green fell to the later rounds and had a good year. They are seen as older and fragile, but on the other side of the coin they are battle tested and don't make rookie mistakes. Note on Green, even if he stays healthy I don’t see anything other than average numbers playing in Houston.

 

 

That's true and yours is an interesting strategy but stud QB/TE/WR's do show up in free agency more often than RB's.

 

In dynasty I took Bush at the rookie #1 and still like him at that spot. He went too high in re-draft but we'll see in dynasty. Too early to tell long term.

[Bronco Billy]

It's all about how good you feel about your team. Screw what everyone else thinks. How will it actually turn out, who knows?

 

You don't happen to live in California & support not giving grades to students and not keeping scores at kids' soccer games, do you?

 

 

 

For me, I couldn't go into a season with Chester & Fred as my #1 and #2 RB's regardless of my supporting cast. Fred could easily get hurt as he often has throughout his career and Chester could spend a lot of time watching Peterson on the field. DeAngelo might breakout but you're dealing with too many IFs at RB which spell trouble.

 

Also, trading might not be as easy as you think because your league knows your team needs a RB.

 

Now that's sage advice, and I agree wholeheartedly. He's in big trouble and may have himself a very unenjoyable FF season. Too many things have to break just his way despite early indicators that they will all break against him at RB.

[Thews40]

It's all about how good you feel about your team. Screw what everyone else thinks. How will it actually turn out, who knows? For me, I couldn't go into a season with Chester & Fred as my #1 and #2 RB's regardless of my supporting cast. Fred could easily get hurt as he often has throughout his career and Chester could spend a lot of time watching Peterson on the field. DeAngelo might breakout but you're dealing with too many IFs at RB which spell trouble.

 

Also, trading might not be as easy as you think because your league knows your team needs a RB.

Agree sort of. Fragile Fred has been pretty solid the last two years. The flaw in this league is the flex can be either a RB/TE/WR, so starting three RB's is an option. Spending a WR pick early makes for a more balanced team, and consistency at WR will fluxuate when the stud WR has an off game. If I have three stud WR's, I can see 2 of 3 hitting on any given week, and the monster weeks should happen. I realize the risk in doing this, but taking RB/RB in the 12th adds up to an average team at best IMO, and winning is the objective.

 

The other thing about DW is garbage time. In a game where Carolina is gonna stomp another team, it's prolly gonna be DW as the main back once it gets out of hand. Between DW and the Tater, playing the match up with the option of going with Chester or Fred isn't that risky IMO. You're right... we'll see.

[MikesVikes]

The WR/WR early picks shouldn't be overvalued just because they are in a PPR. The big time WR's will get there points regardless, in a performance league. DMD had a great article a couple years ago, complete with excel graphs, showing how PPR generally benefits the #3/#4 WR types more than anything else. However, there appears to be a several RBs that benefit greatly in a PPR system.

 

I've always believed that PPR changes RBs more than anything. But it would still raise the value of the WR closer to that of a RB and QBs are lowered, imo.

Edited August 13, 2007 by MikesVikes

[Randall]

In Bastages we have

 

WR 1 PPR

RB 1 1/2

TE 2 PPR and I like that system.

[hollywood_69]

haha! i did the exact opposite in my ppr league!

 

i drafted my first wr round 5!

 

my projected starters!

 

qb mcnabb

rb henry, r. brown, and a. green

wr- branch, r. brown, horn, bernard berriman

te- winslow

k- rackers

d- eagles

 

i'm going to have a real tough time on a weekly basis picking which wr to start the exact opposite of you! we'll see though how we fare.

[Bronco Billy]

In Bastages we have

 

WR 1 PPR

RB 1 1/2

TE 2 PPR and I like that system.

 

What's the logic in increasing the value of the RBs & TEs, but decreasing the value in the WRs?

 

That you like the system is what counts most, but it would be interesting to hear the mindset behind this.

[bushwacked]

In Bastages we have

 

WR 1 PPR

RB 1 1/2

TE 2 PPR and I like that system.

 

 

[Randall]

What's the logic in increasing the value of the RBs & TEs, but decreasing the value in the WRs?

 

That you like the system is what counts most, but it would be interesting to hear the mindset behind this.

 

 

It was to try and balance the value of TE's to WR's. Top 8 WR/TE's last year

 

M Harrison

Gates

TO

Wnslow

Holt

Wayne

Driver

Gonzo

 

There are many scoring systems and this was a tweak that boosted TE value.

[Bronco Billy]

It was to try and balance the value of TE's to WR's. Top 8 WR/TE's last year

 

M Harrison

Gates

TO

Wnslow

Holt

Wayne

Driver

Gonzo

 

There are many scoring systems and this was a tweak that boosted TE value.

 

Okay, I get that part, but why increase RB value when it's already generally so high to begin with? To give RBs an extra 1/2 ppr than WRs is the part that doesn't make any sense to me.

[Randall]

Okay, I get that part, but why increase RB value when it's already generally so high to begin with? To give RBs an extra 1/2 ppr than WRs is the part that doesn't make any sense to me.

 

 

I don't know. I came to the league late and system was already in place. I drafted accordingly and we haven't voted to change it.

 

It values RB's who catch passes more than those who don't and that I don't mind. We all knew how it would work before drafting. Since I have SJax and Bush I like it. Noone has tried to change it.

[The Misfit]

I don't know. I came to the league late and system was already in place. I drafted accordingly and we haven't voted to change it.

 

It values RB's who catch passes more than those who don't and that I don't mind. We all knew how it would work before drafting. Since I have SJax and Bush I like it. Noone has tried to change it.

 

That really makes no sense at all. I've used the 0.5 points per reception for RBs, on the theory that catching a swing pass or a screen ain't the same thing as running a route, beating a CB and catching a ball downfield. But I can't imagine any circumstance where a RB who catches 10 balls is worth 50 percent more than a WR who catches 10 passes (and probably has a career day doing so).

 

The only "rule" I tend to follow when drafting in later rounds is to avoid RB/RB, which I think tends to doom your team to mediocrity (you end up chasing and missing first-tier players at virtually all positions). I like the WR/WR option most in leagues that pay money for high points each week -- on weeks where both your WRs go off, and it will happen at least once or twice, you're likely to win the money. But generally, yeah, too volatile for a super bowl run. And if you're gonna do it, I'd go for broke and get top-tier QB, TE and/or D as well -- and hope you either get lucky with the waiver wire or finding a sleeper RB later in the draft. That takes very large ones, though.

[Randall]

Thews and I are now in the playoffs and the WR strategy may be tested. I haven't seen it succeed yet but it definitely could. I drafted RBRBWRQBWR. He drafted WRWRWRRBTERB.

 

This could be an interesting game.

 

Our lineups this week.

[Sturphy]

Thews and I are now in the playoffs and the WR strategy may be tested. I haven't seen it succeed yet but it definitely could. I drafted RBRBWRQBWR. He drafted WRWRWRRBTERB.

 

This could be an interesting game.

 

Our lineups this week.

Nice to see you leaning on our boys!

 

Go Pack Go!

[mjcarterfl]

The WR/WR/WR got you wide receivers equitable to your opponent who went RB/RB. Looks like the Anderson pick-up is the main reason for your success. This year was a bad year to test your theory...Harrison, Smith, Colston, C. Johnson, Driver, Walker, Branch, Hackett among others were all projected high, but have been hurt or underperformed. It just seems too difficult to project which WR is going to be top ten.

[Randall]

Nice to see you leaning on our boys!

 

Go Pack Go!

 

 

Of course but Broncos got Ryan Grant.

 

Then wanted Braylon Edwards for him.

[Thews40]

I was lucky to make it this far, but I learned a lot. Next year will be different and my guess is "The case for drafting Manning in the first round" is gonna be replaced with Brady before the 6th pick, but ya never know. Heap didn't work out, but Chester and Fred did. I only expected them to be ok. One thing about taking three WR's first is leaving a lot more room for BU RB's. You have to hit on some longshots to fill the holes... Tatum wasn't one of them. You called that one Randall, as K. Jones has worked out for you. Waiver wire moves were key this year, and D.Anderson has made up for what Heap was supposed to do. But, in the end I got lucky, cause Doncos05 has a better team. I'll take a little luck anyday.