Official Week 2 Wagering Thread

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

sorry, i meant to update these. the line was at eagles -1 a few days ago, now it is saints -1. i'll update them real quick...

 

 

I have it Saints opening at - 2 and are now - 1 or -1/2 depending on where you look

My point was i have not found any site that had the Saints getting points ?

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

I see 5dimes now has it at even - dang this line is jumping all over the place

[kroyrunner89]

what caused it to change?

The line will change depending on where the money is coming in. Right now the public is heavily on the Saints which is why the line is shifting. A line that sits at 3 or -3 usually stands still since it is a key number, but from time to time you will see a change.

 

In answer to "Musthavebeendrunk", I get my lines from here: http://www.sbrodds.com/#/odds/nfl/game/pointspread.html. As you can see, most books had the opening line at Philly -1, but it has since shifted to Saints -1 in a lot of places. I wager at betphoenix, so I try to use current lines from that site.

[westvirginia]

what caused it to change?

 

The money coming in on one team or another. The lines are set to get even money on both sides of the wager, so no matter who wins, the bookie makes money.

 

Therefore, if the line starts at Saints -3, meaning they give three to the iggles, then the big money started coming in on the iggles, causing the line to move toward the saints, so as to get even money on both sides of the ball for the sports book.

 

ETA: I like the Falcons and the Raiders. The team with a D and a ground game always beats the team without (as far as the Raiders/Chefs). Seymore really seems to have changed that whole Raider equation. If they can get some production out of Russell they might go far.

Edited September 18, 2009 by westvirginia

[Mojo Rising]

The game that really sticks out to me as far as being a trap is:

 

Car @ ATL -6.5

 

Falcons by less than a TD while being at home. After seeing how bad delhomo and his o-line played, plus Chris Harris might sit out - making the Panthers defense weaker.....I would expect for the falcons to win by double digits. I know carolina always plays better on the road but they just looked horrible last week.

 

I would expect the public to take the falcons............so maybe the panthers are the play?

[rattsass]

1-0

 

I hate to be redundant, but I like the Titans again this week. Lot of games look good to me, but I am trying to be more focused this season. At least until I get ahead for the week, at which point I play with "house money", so the Titans are my official pick.

 

The Titans were a couple of easy field goal misses away from taking down the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Totally shut down the run. Now they open at home at 0-1 againt the Texans, who looked like the Keystone Cops on offense last week. Bottom line, I think there is a pretty big disparity between these two teams none the least of which is Fisher v. Kubiak, with Fisher off 10 days to prepare. With Andre Johnson on the field, the Texans alwayh have a punchers chance. But playing a Titans team that will not accept being backed into an 0-2 corner is a tall order.

 

Lots of $$ pouring in on the Texans in this game. People think the line looks suspicious. There is no mystery to me. I expect a dominant performance from the superior home team and an easy cover for my favorite team vs. the spread.

 

Titans -7

[STL Fan]

1-0

 

I hate to be redundant, but I like the Titans again this week. Lot of games look good to me, but I am trying to be more focused this season. At least until I get ahead for the week, at which point I play with "house money", so the Titans are my official pick.

 

The Titans were a couple of easy field goal misses away from taking down the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Totally shut down the run. Now they open at home at 0-1 againt the Texans, who looked like the Keystone Cops on offense last week. Bottom line, I think there is a pretty big disparity between these two teams none the least of which is Fisher v. Kubiak, with Fisher off 10 days to prepare. With Andre Johnson on the field, the Texans alwayh have a punchers chance. But playing a Titans team that will not accept being backed into an 0-2 corner is a tall order.

 

Lots of $$ pouring in on the Texans in this game. People think the line looks suspicious. There is no mystery to me. I expect a dominant performance from the superior home team and an easy cover for my favorite team vs. the spread.

 

Titans -7

 

Made a lot of money on the Titans last year . . .

[kroyrunner89]

The game that really sticks out to me as far as being a trap is:

 

Car @ ATL -6.5

 

Falcons by less than a TD while being at home. After seeing how bad delhomo and his o-line played, plus Chris Harris might sit out - making the Panthers defense weaker.....I would expect for the falcons to win by double digits. I know carolina always plays better on the road but they just looked horrible last week.

 

I would expect the public to take the falcons............so maybe the panthers are the play?

Right now 55% of the public is on the Panthers. I think the line is so low because people are expecting the 2008 Panthers to show up. I actually have a play on Atlanta, when I finish picking all my games and post them up you can read the write up for that one.

 

As far as who the public backs, when 65% or more of the public was on a team the last few years sides went 71-64, totals went 79-79. So, yes Vegas came out ahead in the end but this shows that just because the public heavily favors one side isn't necessarily reason to stay away. Just pick your spots.

Edited September 18, 2009 by kroyrunner89

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

3-0

 

Have posted 2 plays already and going to add one more

 

Oakland Money Line + 130

 

This is a game I feel that the Raider are going to win outright , I'm actually surprised that they are the underdogs and if they were playing at home I believe the odds makers would of had them a 4pt favorite. So I guess you could say that I'm making a value pick here. Oakland Def. is going to shut them down. Yes I know they scored 24 on Baltimore last week but Baltimore was looking past KC and ahead to their match up with SD this week. Oakland wins outright in a low scoring close game.

[irish]

I'm liking the Lions getting 10 from the Vikings in their home opener. Both games were close last year and I expect the same this year even though the Vikes should win. 10 points is alot. 21-13. I also like the Falcons and Skins minus the points as well.

 

Thoughts?

Edited September 20, 2009 by irish

[Gopher]

Here are the current Sportsbook lines, with my thoughts on each game:

 

OAK +3 KC 38.5 I agree with MOBD and like the Raiders in this game, even though they've lost 10 of their last 12 against KC. They played well enough to beat SD last week, and I think they'll be able to run the ball against KC on Sunday. The Oakland D-line should be able to limit the KC running game, and force KC into some passing mistakes. These two teams have also gone UNDER the total in seven of their past eight meetings. I look for a low-scoring game... could go either way, but I like the Raiders' chances, and will take the points.

 

HOU +7 TEN 41 The Titans have won 7 of the past 8 against Houston, including 6-2 against the spread. These two teams have also hit the OVER in 7 of the past 9 meetings... Not sure I like Tennessee enough to give the 7 points, though. Had I gotten in on -6.5, I would have been all over it, but I waited too long. Have to think about this one for a minute... Houston seems to come to play against divisional opponents, but they did look REALLY bad last week. Not sure if I want to mess with this one, either way. I also don't know if I want to rely on the Houston offense to contribute to reaching the over... I'll probably pass altogether.

 

NEP -3.5 NYJ 46 My initial thought was that the Jets looked really good last week, while New England looked rusty on both sides of the ball. However, one trend that caught my attention was that the Jets have failed to cover in TEN straight home games against New England. Not sure if that's enough to sway me towards the Pats, but it is definitely enough to make me think twice about making a play on the Jets. My gut instinct says that Sanchez comes slightly back down to Earth, while Brady, with a week under his belt, gets the NE offense rolling again. On the other hand, the Jets defense looks good so far this year... They may try to keep this game low-scoring, use their running game to control time-of-possession, and squeak out a win. Maybe I should just stay away and watch these two teams for one more week, before making a determination on either of them.

 

CIN +9 GB 42 Green Bay SHOULD win this game easily, on paper. However, their offense struggled a little bit last week, in comparison to the pre-season. Cincinnati, on the other hand, moved the ball easily last week, between the 20's, but was unable to cash in on several red-zone opportunities. The trends show conflicting information... the Bengals have failed against the spread in five straight meetings, while the previous three meetings have all been under the total number. I think it's highly likely that one of these two trends breaks this week... I look for Green Bay to win, but I'm not so sure it will be by double-digits. Another pair of teams that I'd like to watch once more before making any wagers.

 

MIN -10 DET 45 I've seen Detroit play us tough too many times to just assume that MN covers the ten points this week. Sure, they SHOULD win by 2 touchdowns or more, but what should happen rarely does when these two teams meet, especially in Detroit. Last year, Minnesota was one Orlovsky run out the back end of the end zone away from "spoiling" Detroit's perfect season. I don't think it will be that close this year, but I also saw enough of Detroit last week to realize that they should be able to put some points on the board against the Vikes. The fact that, going into last week, Minnesota was 1-6 in September road games doesn't help my confidence level, either. I think Minnesota wins, but I could easily see it staying within single digits.

 

NOS -1.5 PHI 46 I feel like I'm repeating myself, but this is another game that I really have a hard time getting a read on. The Eagles basically have four QB's that could be in the equation over the next month... It sounds like Kolb will start, which I'm assuming is the main reason why the spread has swung slightly in the Saints' favor. Still, the Eagles defense is going to be extremely fired up in their first regular-season home game since losing the great Jim Johnson. I wouldn't be surprised if this game stays under the total of 46, even though this matchup has traditionally hit the over. I look for a game in which the Eagles defense keeps them in the game, while the normally high-powered Philly offense struggles to move the ball... Not sure which way it will go, but I think this will be decided by a FG, one way or the other.

 

CAR +6 ATL 42.5 Another game which I'm not so sure Week 1 is a good measure of the talent level of both teams. Sure, Delhomme looked terrible, but Carolina is 3-1 (both straight up and against the spread) in their past four meetings with the Falcons. Also, as tough as the Falcons are at home, they're only 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 divisional games. Despite both of those trends, I'm still leaning towards the Falcons giving less than a touchdown. It's just really hard for me to imagine Delhomme playing well this week, in Atlanta, after last week's debacle at home. Sometimes, you just have to buck the trends, and go with your gut. I'll take ATL -6.

 

STL +9.5 WAS 37 All of the trends point towards the under in this one, and I agree. The Rams struggled to put themselves in a position where they could score last week in Seattle, and I think they'll have the same problem this week. I think their defense will play well enough to somewhat limit the Skins early, but Washington should pull away in the second half. I see Washington winning, somewhere in the 24-10 range, but there might not even be that many points. I like Washington and the Under, but only enough to probably play them both in a teaser.

 

ARI +3 JAC 42.5 These two teams have only met twice, and Jacksonville covered both times. Arizona is historically very bad in September road games, losing 11 of their last 12. I like Jacksonville, but this is a game both teams need to win... The Jags go to Houston next week, while Arizona hosts the Colts. Probably another game where I'll take JAC in a teaser, but I'm not so sure they'll win by 4 or more.

 

SEA +1 SF 39.5 The Hawks have done very well recently in San Francisco... 5-2 both straight up and against the spread. I like them getting points this week as well. I think Seattle is a good example of a team that is being severely undervalued by odds-makers, due to people not taking last year's injuries into account when analyzing their results. In other words, I think people have somewhat forgotten how good Seattle is when healthy. I'll take Seattle, and think they'll win this game outright.

 

TB +4 BUF 42 Burned by TB last week, but I think this will be a surprisingly high-scoring game... both teams will be able to successfully move the ball through the air. Buffalo should win, but it will be interesting to see how they recover, after basically giving a W away to the Pats on national TV. If anything, I might include the Over in a teaser, but I'll probably just stay away altogether.

 

CLE +3 DEN 39 Broncos have lost only one of their past 13 September home games, and have never lost to the new and unimproved Browns. That said, what can be determined from last weeks results regarding these two teams? Not much... I think Denver's defense is probably better than most people originally were ready to give them credit for, and I think they'll win a low-scoring game this week. I like the Under here.

 

BAL +3 SD 40.5 - No LT, and Jamal Williams is done for the year. But, Baltimore has covered only once in their past five trips to SD. Still, I think the Ravens defense will have something to prove after giving up 24 to KC last week, and San Diego has looked rusty on offense so far. If Baltimore can limit Sproles from making too many big plays, I like their chances to win outright. I'll take the Ravens +3.

 

PIT -3 CHI 37.5 Too many unanswered questions here. I need to wait and see which team is affected more by their loss on defense... Urlacher for Chicago, or Troy for the Steelers. Staying away from this one altogether, as I really have no idea how it will go. I'm guessing Pittsburgh wins, but without TP, who knows... And I have absolutely no feeling on the total, either.

 

NYG +3 DAL 45.5 Hmmmm... There are actually a couple of significant trends favoring the Under in this game. With the off-season changes, I tend to like the under as well, as I think both teams are better overall on defense than they are on offense. I don't see the Giants getting burned deep multiple times like TB did last week, and Dallas should be able to slow down New York's young WR's as well. I like the under, but only enough to add it in a teaser somewhere... You never really know what's going to happen when these divisional rivals meet. One thing is for sure... the big screen hanging over the field will be a factor at some point.

 

IND -3 MIA 42 The trends in this matchup are not exactly what I thought they would be. Miami and the Under are actually both 9-3 in the past 12 meetings between these two teams. This is another team (Miami) that I have a hard time making a play on, given how poorly they played last week. I need to see them play again, particularly at home, before I can even begin to figure them out. I'll stay away for now.

Edited September 20, 2009 by Gopher

[Gopher]

Based on my previous post, here is what I'm going with this week (may add something later for the late games tomorrow):

 

Straight wagers:

Falcons(Atlanta) -6

Ravens(Baltimore) +3

CLE/DEN Under 39

Seahawks(Seattle) +1

Raiders(Oakland) +3

 

6 Point Teaser (2 Teams):

Eagles(Philadelphia) +7.5

NOS/PHI Under 51.5

 

7 Point Teaser (3 Teams):

Redskins(Washington) -2.5

STL/WAS Under 44

Vikings(Minnesota) -3

 

6.5 Point Teaser (3 Teams):

Packers(GreenBay) -2.5

Jaguars(Jacksonville) +3.5

Titans(Tennessee) -0.5

 

Parlay (4 Teams - Moneyline):

Packers(GreenBay) -460

Redskins(Washington) -500

Titans(Tennessee) -300

Vikings(Minnesota) -500

 

I'll probably continue to do the money line thing on the top 3 or 4 favorites every week until I lose... That means Houston, Cincinnati, and St. Louis will probably all win this week. Good luck, everybody.

[MTSuper7]

Raiders +3 @ Chiefs 38 - Taking the over

Bengals +9 @ Packers 42

Rams +10 @ Redskins 36.5

Bucs +4.5 @ Bills 42 - Taking the under

Ravens +3 @ Chargers 40

 

ETA: The Redskins lost to the Rams at home last year. That a team as iffy as Washington is giving 10 points to anyone is a little IMO...

Edited September 20, 2009 by MTSuper7

[kroyrunner89]

Week 1 sure treated us well, with my posted plays going a stunning 6-0 ATS. It's safe to say I had the right read on all of those games, with the sole exception maybe being the lucky cover by the Packers. I thought they could win a little more comfortably than that, but in the end a win is a win. The lucky breaks will even out along the way, I'm sure my followers from last year can remember a couple brutal beats we took (Losing an over because of a botched extra point is still the most painful).

 

As much as I'd like to dwell on my Week 1 performance though, it's time to move on to Week 2 and get the job done again. This week is a much tougher set of lines, yet I've managed to come up with a few plays that I feel pretty good about. I actually think Vegas doesn't mind the weak lines in Week 1, because they know that the public will go heavier the next week when things get crazier. Less than 10% of sports bettors can manage to turn a profit in the long run, and there's a reason for that. The public did great in Week 1, and a lot of people will find that they aren't that lucky this week. So, as usual, I recommend good money management with your bets, my 6-0 Week 1 does not indicate that I'll have a winning Week 2 as well. Remember that right now these games are just my humble opinion and I do not yet have my system running to help me out, so there is no guarantee I can perform well again this week. Every week I can only guarantee that I'll do everything in my power to pick some winners, with that being said here's what I've got this week:

 

* Philadelphia Eagles PK

 

The first play I'm liking this week is Eagles PK. The general public perception right now is that no Mcnabb = No win for the Eagles, plus that Drew Brees has entered beast mode and will throw big points on the board as usual. With no Mcnabb, how could the Eagles possibly keep up? Well, there are a few skeletons in the Saints' closet that I'm not willing to ignore, making Philly the clear pick for me. For one, the Saints were just a 2-6 road team last year. Their two wins? Against the 2-14 Chiefs and the 0-16 Lions. A big reason for this was a fall in Brees' numbers when he played on the road. Although his yardage was fairly similar to when he played at home, he threw 11 tds to 10 ints (8 tds to 9 ints ignoring the KC and DET games). Compared to his 23 tds to 5 ints at home, not so great.

 

One game I remember getting burned on last year was betting on the Saints in Week 2. They had just stomped a solid Tampa Bay defense at home, and went on the road to play the Redskins who had struggled mightily on offense in Week 1. The Saints were only 3 point favorites, and everyone and their mother seemed to love them to cover and win handily. After 4 quarters of football, the Saints found themselves losers 29-25. After an average to below average defensive performance against Detroit (I'm not holding the returned fumble for a td against them), I've seen nothing to indicate that this defensive unit is greatly improved. Kolb has been in this league for a while and should be ready to play, not to mention the outside chance Mcnabb plays still.

 

Maybe the Saints have really turned over a new leaf this year, but until I see something to prove it I have to go against them in this spot. The Eagles are one of the favorites in the NFC with or without Mcnabb, and you can bet that their defense will do it's job and apply the pressure to Brees, forcing some mistakes. It'll probably be a close one, but in the end I see the Eagles coming out on top.

 

* Baltimore +3

 

I know it's early in the season and I haven't seen a ton out of the Ravens yet, but I'm pretty certain that this team is the real deal. They were quite impressive in the preseason, and although he only played the Chiefs, Flacco seems to have taken a step forward from where he was last year. The Ravens were a quality team on the road last year, making a nice playoff run beating the Dolphins and Titans on the road, so you know they do not get phased by opposing crowds. I'm also not a believer in this Chargers team, it seems like they get hyped up every year only to finish with a mediocre season. I found myself constantly amazed Monday night at how dominant Oakland seemed over them, they really stole a win in that one.

 

Although any team can have a bad week at any time, I don't have any reason to believe that last week was just a bad week for San Diego. They are a team with a history of underachieving, and they find themselves without several key starters this coming Sunday. I expect an improvement in the Raven's defense as they come out looking to prove that they're a force to be reckoned with in the AFC, and I really can't see the Chargers having that special of a game. Although the public's money is on the Ravens, I don't mind that and I think this is a great spot to bet them. All in all, I don't see how the Chargers offense will be able to keep the chains moving, or how their defense will be able to slow down the Ravens' attack. So, Ravens +3 should come through, with a good chance that they take this one outright.

 

* Atlanta Falcons -6

 

This line almost seems suspicious, yet I cannot ignore the value. We all remember the 12-4 Panthers of last year, a powerful team among the NFC favorites that wound up flopping. Maybe that's why this line is so low, because people expect that these are the Panthers that show up on Sunday. Well, even if the Panthers come ready to play at the level they did last year, I expect it still won't be enough for them to cover this spread.

 

The 2008 Panthers struggled to win on the road, posting a 4-4 mark. Of those 4 wins, not a single team was over .500! When they were on the road they scored a td less per game, while allowing an additional 5 ppg to be scored on them. But this only tells part of the story. If you remove those cupcake teams they played against, their story becomes much more dismal. You're now looking at an 0-4 mark on the road, with an average loss of about 14 ppg. One of these losses came to this very Falcons team, when the Falcons beat up on them 45-28.

 

So, even if the Panthers can get their 2008 swagger back, it seems like they still don't have a ton to look forward to. I also reviewed Atlanta's stellar home numbers in last week's write up, further enforcing the strength of this pick. Last week Atlanta proved their run last year was no fluke, taking it to a quality Miami defense and forcing their offense into several uncharacteristic turnovers. This is especially impressive given how well Miami took care of the ball all of last year. With a turnover prone Delhomme coming to Atlanta, I'd expect the Falcons to capitalize on a few more opportunities for a takeaway. Against a Panthers' defense that isn't as good as the defense the Falcons faced last week, I expect Atlanta to score without much difficulty as well. When all is said and done, look for a comfortable Falcons win.

 

Best of luck to everyone this week, hopefully we can make it another winning week!

[hollywood_69]

although college football broke me, i will help you guys out

 

pitt/chi over 37.5 is my gow

 

i like was stl over 37

 

Last week my picks were min o40 and balt o37

[Trots]

New England 27 NY Jets 13

I'll take Brady and Belichick, you can have Sanchez and Rexy.

[Do Work Son]

Oak +3

 

GB -8 1/2

 

GL all.

[Gopher]

Parlay (4 Teams - Moneyline):

Packers(GreenBay) -460

Redskins(Washington) -500

Titans(Tennessee) -300

Vikings(Minnesota) -500

 

I'll probably continue to do the money line thing on the top 3 or 4 favorites every week until I lose... That means Houston, Cincinnati, and St. Louis will probably all win this week. Good luck, everybody.

[Gopher]

Adding one more teaser for this afternoon's games:

 

Broncos (Denver) +4

Bills (Buffalo) +3

Steelers (Pittsburgh) +4

[kroyrunner89]

2-1 Week 2, another winning week! I probably am done for the week, nothing really stands out in these two primetime games. I have one play I'm considering for tomorrow night, I'll post it up if I go with it!

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

New England 27 NY Jets 13

I'll take Brady and Belichick, you can have Sanchez and Rexy.

 

 

sounds like a deal to me

[Gopher]

Won the ones in bold... That puts me at 50% (5/10) for the weekend. There were a few games (Oakland, for example) where I was pretty much dead on with my "analysis", and a few where I was not even close (Philly ). Went 4/5 on straight wagers (yeah, I know, I should just stick to those), 1/4 on teasers, and GB/TEN ruined my money line parlay. Broke even, basically, since the one teaser I did win paid more than even money. The one game that really cost me was Washington only winning by two... would have won a second teaser had they kicked a FG on 4th down at the STL five yard line, inside of two minutes to go. Instead, they go for it, and turn the ball over, up by two points. Terrible call... could have cost them the game.

 

The one thing I learned last year is that you really do have to pick your plays carefully... It usually doesn't pay to "diversify" your investments in this game and bet on everything possible. That said, I will continue to mix in some parlays and teasers, although I do try to look for individual games/lines/totals that catch my eye first. Overall, given it's only week 2, I'm happy having broken even both weeks (considering how many plays I did make). It took me a few weeks to "hit my stride" last year, and I expect to make more money as the season goes on, this year as well.

 

Congrats to those of you who did well this week... Let's keep it going, and continue to share info.

 

Straight wagers:

 

Falcons(Atlanta) -6

Ravens(Baltimore) +3

CLE/DEN Under 39

Seahawks(Seattle) +1

Raiders(Oakland) +3

 

6 Point Teaser (2 Teams):

Eagles(Philadelphia) +7.5

NOS/PHI Under 51.5

 

7 Point Teaser (3 Teams):

Redskins(Washington) -2.5 OUCH!

STL/WAS Under 44

Vikings(Minnesota) -3

 

6.5 Point Teaser (3 Teams):

Packers(GreenBay) -2.5

Jaguars(Jacksonville) +3.5

Titans(Tennessee) -0.5

 

Parlay (4 Teams - Moneyline):

Packers(GreenBay) -460

Redskins(Washington) -500

Titans(Tennessee) -300

Vikings(Minnesota) -500

 

7-pt teaser:

Broncos (Denver) +4

Bills (Buffalo) +3

Steelers (Pittsburgh) +4

Edited September 21, 2009 by Gopher

[kroyrunner89]

I'm done for the week guys, no play tonight. Got a lean towards the under and Miami +3, but neither play has enough value for me to lock in. I'll cya all Week 3!

[westvirginia]

The one thing I learned last year is that you really do have to pick your plays carefully... It usually doesn't pay to "diversify" your investments in this game and bet on everything possible.

 

Hammer, meet nail. That's where you turn a big money week into a break-even week.