2010 fantasy runningbacks?

[eags]

rule of thumb is grab a stud rb-rb if you can every year right? not so fast. even if your not in a ppr league i'm not so sure that's the way to go in the future. i think you should start thinking qb-te. tenn is the only team that still has a run first coach. minn stranded the highest ranked rb for a old qb. dallas has 3 good rbs and yet the te is the best player on their team. what, my fellow huddlers, that i admire is happening to the nfl? i, myself don't really care because it is making fantasy football better and better (if that could actually happen).

[piratesownninjas]

rule of thumb is grab a stud rb-rb if you can every year right? not so fast. even if your not in a ppr league i'm not so sure that's the way to go in the future. i think you should start thinking qb-te. tenn is the only team that still has a run first coach. minn stranded the highest ranked rb for a old qb. dallas has 3 good rbs and yet the te is the best player on their team. what, my fellow huddlers, that i admire is happening to the nfl? i, myself don't really care because it is making fantasy football better and better (if that could actually happen).

Not sure grabbing a TE is that important. In the past you had Gonzo, Gates, and someone else then a pile of garbage. Now you have Gates, Witten, Clark, Davis, Celek, Finley, KW2, Daniels, on and on. The position isn't as scarce anymore.

 

Adrian Peterson had 50 less yards than in 08, but produced 8 more TD's in 09.

 

And as far as the best fantasy player in Dallas? It's not Witten, its a guy named Miles who had a massive season at WR.

[Jackass]

rule of thumb is grab a stud rb-rb if you can every year right? not so fast. even if your not in a ppr league i'm not so sure that's the way to go in the future. i think you should start thinking qb-te. tenn is the only team that still has a run first coach. minn stranded the highest ranked rb for a old qb. dallas has 3 good rbs and yet the te is the best player on their team. what, my fellow huddlers, that i admire is happening to the nfl? i, myself don't really care because it is making fantasy football better and better (if that could actually happen).

 

Not saying your premise about not going rb-rb is right or wrong, but your supporting evidence is not good.

 

As pointed out AP had 8 more td's last year - you have an odd definition of 'stranded'.

Tenn is definitely not the only run first team.

Witten's a good player but had 2 Td's last year

Also as pointed out, TE position is as deep as it's ever been.

[wolfer]

we talk about early round QB all the time. If you are talking about a 6pt TD league then ya, you can certainly justify taking an early round tier 1 QB. 4pt standard scoring leagues you will tend to find more value in later rounds.

 

TE are diluted now. Let someone else burn an early 2-3 round pick on a TE, you can have a similar player 3 rounds later.

[Delicious_bass]

we talk about early round QB all the time. If you are talking about a 6pt TD league then ya, you can certainly justify taking an early round tier 1 QB. 4pt standard scoring leagues you will tend to find more value in later rounds.

 

TE are diluted now. Let someone else burn an early 2-3 round pick on a TE, you can have a similar player 3 rounds later.

Here we go

[Chief Dick]

Starting RB's, especially those who get the bulk of the work, have even MORE value now.

[keggerz]

we talk about early round QB all the time. If you are talking about a 6pt TD league then ya, you can certainly justify taking an early round tier 1 QB. 4pt standard scoring leagues you will tend to find more value in later rounds.

 

TE are diluted now. Let someone else burn an early 2-3 round pick on a TE, you can have a similar player 3 rounds later.

please, by all means get to justifying

 

Here we go

[buddahj]

With the RB postion more diluted than ever before...will more people begin to embrace WR/WR to start their draft?

[keggerz]

With the RB postion more diluted than ever before...will more people begin to embrace WR/WR to start their draft?

probably but the other thing that will likely start to happen is that leagues will lessen the importance of the RB by increasing other positions or even making an extreme change that allows you to start as few as ZERO RBs (yes I am in a league like that).

[darin3]

And as far as the best fantasy player in Dallas? It's not Witten, its a guy named Miles who had a massive season at WR.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but if a little theory I like to believe in plays out in Dallas, it will swing back in Witten's favor next season. I like to think of fantasy trends happening in waves ... sometimes over the course of several years, but sometimes happening after just one season.

 

Teams may be keying on Austin come next season. Better to allow the underneath route to come free than the home run hit, right?

 

Anyways, I see a big, injury-free season for Witten. Drafters may be down on him with the emergence of Austin, and he may come at a value in some leagues... same as Gates, in some leagues, last season.

[Jackass]

I'm not saying you're wrong, but if a little theory I like to believe in plays out in Dallas, it will swing back in Witten's favor next season. I like to think of fantasy trends happening in waves ... sometimes over the course of several years, but sometimes happening after just one season.

 

Teams may be keying on Austin come next season. Better to allow the underneath route to come free than the home run hit, right?

 

Anyways, I see a big, injury-free season for Witten. Drafters may be down on him with the emergence of Austin, and he may come at a value in some leagues... same as Gates, in some leagues, last season.

 

witten only had 4 td's in 2008.

[Exting987]

With so many teams using RBC, I think if you can get one of the 3 Elite RBs (Or how ever many you think are elite) you start with an advantage. In that case I would go RB-WR. If I can't get one of what I consider be the elite RBs, then I would go WR-WR.

 

I agree that there is a lot of depth at TE now. There are a few I like above the others, but not so much that I would spend an early round pick on them. I would take one of my top choices in round 4 or 5. If I dont get one there, I wait. There are 5 QBs in my elite group right now, and again there are a couple I like a little more than the others. In a league that gives 6 points for a passing TD, I would try to an elite QB early in the 3rd round of a 12 team league. If I don't get one of them there, I wait several rounds and take two.

[wolfer]

if you assume witten's 2010 season will be close to 2007, you get 96-1145 and 7tds, all career bests.

 

Dallas Clark '09 100-1106 10TD

Gates '09 79 1157 8TD

Vernon Davis '09 78 965 13TD

Celek '09 76 971 8TD

 

Owen Daniels may have been the best of this bunch before his ACL tear. So Witten's best only puts him slightly ahead in a fairly diluted field.

 

Back to your RB-RB question, this article is always a good read, and well worth the popcorn icon.

http://www.thehuddle.com/x9/articles/dmd-pick-players.php

[keggerz]

With so many teams using RBC, I think if you can get one of the 3 Elite RBs (Or how ever many you think are elite) you start with an advantage. In that case I would go RB-WR. If I can't get one of what I consider be the elite RBs, then I would go WR-WR.

 

I agree that there is a lot of depth at TE now. There are a few I like above the others, but not so much that I would spend an early round pick on them. I would take one of my top choices in round 4 or 5. If I dont get one there, I wait. There are 5 QBs in my elite group right now, and again there are a couple I like a little more than the others. In a league that gives 6 points for a passing TD, I would try to an elite QB early in the 3rd round of a 12 team league. If I don't get one of them there, I wait several rounds and take two.

do you handle that situation differently if passing TDs are only worth 4 points?

[Infinity]

I really think Matt Forte will be a nice steal after a less then stellar performance this year.

[piratesownninjas]

I'm not saying you're wrong, but if a little theory I like to believe in plays out in Dallas, it will swing back in Witten's favor next season. I like to think of fantasy trends happening in waves ... sometimes over the course of several years, but sometimes happening after just one season.

 

Teams may be keying on Austin come next season. Better to allow the underneath route to come free than the home run hit, right?

 

Anyways, I see a big, injury-free season for Witten. Drafters may be down on him with the emergence of Austin, and he may come at a value in some leagues... same as Gates, in some leagues, last season.

Oh, I'm not low at all on Witten, but I do beleive Austin is the real deal. And I'll take a top 10 WR over a top 5 TE any day. I'm not sure many teams will be able to shut Austin down. Too big/strong/fast to do that.

[keggerz]

Of course you do. Friggin' newb.

why

[piratesownninjas]

I really think Matt Forte will be a nice steal after a less then stellar performance this year.

 

This was posted on my local message board and sums up the outlook on Forte pretty well.

 

Martz gets RB into the passing mix. This can be a huge plus to someone like Kevin Jones who was not being used a receiver prior to Martz. However Forte's saving grace in fantasy land is his receptions. They are/were already high. How much higher can you actually expect them to go? He's had 64 and 57 the last two years. I could maybe expect in a perfect world that to go to...75?

 

2008 Frank Gore avg 15 rushes per game

2007 Kevin Jones avg 12 rushes per game

2006 Kevin Jones avg 15 rushes per game

 

If he keeps to the norm of 15 carries to the top back that puts Forte at 240 carries. 75 less than his only good season. Gaining 10 or even 20 receptions is not going to get that back.

[bpwallace49]

I'm not sure many teams will be able to shut Austin down. Too big/strong/fast to do that.

 

Umm . . didnt he fade badly at the end of the year when doubled over the top with a safety? Becasue Royboy doesnt scare anyone and can be single covered?

[keggerz]

sarcasm <-----------------------------> keggerz

 

sarchasm!

:chum:

[piratesownninjas]

Umm . . didnt he fade badly at the end of the year when doubled over the top with a safety? Becasue Royboy doesnt scare anyone and can be single covered?

Nope. By the end of the year I'll guess you're talking about week 12-17... He posted these numbers...

Week 12. 7-145-1

Week 13. 10-104-1

Week 14. 6-71-1

Week 15. 7-139-1

Week 16. 9-92

Week 17. 7-90

[bpwallace49]

Nope. By the end of the year I'll guess you're talking about week 12-17... He posted these numbers...

Week 12. 7-145-1

Week 13. 10-104-1

Week 14. 6-71-1

Week 15. 7-139-1

Week 16. 9-92

Week 17. 7-90

 

Maybe I was just thinking of the middle of teh season when he caught a total of 9 passes for 116 yards and 1 td . . . over the course of 3 games. He had some monsters against sub-par competition, but I dont think that he too "big/strong/fast" to shut down like you said. He is a talent, but I will wait and see how he does beyond one year . . .

[piratesownninjas]

Maybe I was just thinking of the middle of teh season when he caught a total of 9 passes for 116 yards and 1 td . . . over the course of 3 games. He had some monsters against sub-par competition, but I dont think that he too "big/strong/fast" to shut down like you said. He is a talent, but I will wait and see how he does beyond one year . . .

Once he had taken over the starting spot he had one bad game, and that was against the packers. The Cowbyos couldn't do anything offensively, and I'm not sure he'd face the defensive player of the year more than once or twice a season. Beyong that he had a 4-47 yard game which is nothing great, but if that's his second worst performance, I'd take it.

And his one catch game wasn't bad, seeing as it went for 50 and a TD. Randy Moss had three performances worse than Miles Austin's 4-47, Desean Jackson had three as did Reggie Wayne. Fitzgerald had two games below that.

Point being is that no one sans Andre Johnson is going to be money all season long. You can't fake 1300 yards and 11 TD's. The dude is legit. The only question is why are you doubting him? Cowboy hatred?

[Scooby's Hubby]

Guys like Shonn Green and Mendenhall and Harrison (Cle) and Pierre Thomas will be great values...Where will Steven Jackson be in the mix? With Chris Johnson and Ray Rice zooming up the charts a guy like SJax could be grabbed 2nd round once you add in the WR picks. Who will run the ball in WASH and SD? There will be some good value at RB with a "changing of the guard" happening at the top with Ray Rice and Chris Johnson. All in all there will be some very good depth at RB in 2010.

[Ram Man]

Seeing how the guy who started this blog submitted it at 3:18 am, I'm going to safely assume he was on the tail end of a 12 pack and had what he thought was a fantasy epiphany and decided to enlighten us with his theory. Why else would someone suggest suck craziness about taking TEs early? Unless he is trying to plant an early seed of disinformation to throw off the fantasy world so that he can conquer it next year. But I'm going with the 12 pack theory.

 

As far as the RB discussion, its still the rule of thumb/wrist to grab an elite RB early. If the one's you consider elite are gone, go with a QB if they get 6pts for TDs. If they only get 4pts, grab an elite WR. Stay away from TEs...like it even has to be said? Now the question arises...who are the elite RBs next year? One guy who I haven't seen mentioned yet is Frank Gore. He finished in 5th among RBs on my PPR and non PPR league last year. Plus is schedule next year is cake against the run. I hope none of my league members are reading this poopy. I'd take Gore over SJax in a heartbeat. Thoughts?