DMD Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Granted, it is 14 weeks into the season (generally) and lots could happen by then. But you already know what the schedule is so do you consider it at all when drafting? Some notables from weeks 14 to 16: Bad Ryan Matthews and Philip Rivers - @PIT, CAR and @NYJ Ahmad Bradshaw - NO, @ATL and @BAL Pierre Garcon - BAL, @CLE and @PHI Good Matt Ryan - @CAR, NYG and @DET Darren McFadden - DEN, KC and @CAR Brandon Marshall - @MIN, GB and @ARI You have to win every week in the playoffs to advance - do you consider the schedule at draft time? There is much Ryan Matthews love but when you need him most, he has @PIT and @NYJ? That is tough... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpholmes Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Will McFadden make it to the playoffs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papajohn Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I haven't paid much attention to it in the past and probably won't this year either. So much can change between and during the seasons, that makes it almost impossible to predict the impact in the playoffs. Everything can happen if you reacg the playoffs, but not much can happen if you don't. Even though Steelers against the run and Darelle Revis on you WR1 is about as constant as it gets, it will not be a huge factor in my draft strategy. Before the trade deadline last season I tried to trade for a RB3/Flex with and easy schedule in the playoffs, so in-season with more information it is something that I am aware of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 (edited) I have a hard enough time just making the playoffs. Taking the playoff schedule into account during the draft is the furthest thing from my mind. Edited July 7, 2012 by tazinib1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I try to break the season down into sections...there are players that I draft based on pure ability, others by schedule when it gets to the later rounds and then I use the number of primetime games as a tie-breaker in some cases because "everyone is watching".... when the season gets halfway through or even before that, I try to evaluate the team that I have and what moves I should make based on the upcoming stretch and that is where I really look at the schedule because things never go how I expect them to go completely prior to the season, so there I consider variable change and tweak my roster accordingly by hopefully selling high and buying low on a player with a nice upcoming schedule.... all in all, I only use schedule as a tie-breaker during the draft when I have a couple of players I am considering because...as I said, there are a lot of teams that I just get it wrong about as far as who might be a "good" or "bad" matchup....but I find the primetime appearances to be a decent tool also when I am kinda stumped.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I have a hard enough time just making the playoffs. Taking the playoff schedule into account during the draft is the furthest thing from my mind. I think that looking at the playoffs during the draft is foolish anyways....after injuries and other unforseen explosions, you will find yourself to be wrong more than right when you are talking 2-3 months down the line in football... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bostonsoxandy Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Playoff schedule is a great tiebreaker when needing to decide between two players that one feels are equal in value...that's about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 It is one of my main considerations for picking a Team D/ST but rarely for any other position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 [Jim Mora] "Playoffs?! You're talkin about playoffs??? Playoffs?! You kiddin me? Playoffs?!". [/Jim Mora] I agree with Taz. The league I play in are so damned competitive that I'm just looking at getting in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice1 Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Playoff schedule is a great tiebreaker when needing to decide between two players that one feels are equal in value...that's about it. This Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddahj Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 With my early picks, I do take playoff schedules into account when deciding who to draft. It's just one of many factors that I use to make my decision on who to take. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpholmes Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 While I might glance at the playoff schedule with my earlier draft picks, I don't give it much weight. Far too much can happen in 13 weeks - for both individual players, and teams as a whole. From a dynasty standpoint, which is all of my leagues but two, I will rarely if ever trade my starters away based on their playoff schedule that season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flemingd Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 I don't consider SoS of playoffs during the draft, no. What I do take into account is weather. I tend to avoid cold-weather schedules for my QB and WR's/TE's, and I put it together very similarly to the Huddle's SoS system - Dome, Low Risk, High Risk. Low Risk is any outdoor stadium below the 38th parallel and High Risk is any outdoor stadium north of it, with risk weighted heavier for the later games. I won't draft Alex Smith over Rodgers straight up obviously, but it might be the deciding factor of whether to go QB/RB/RB or RB/RB/QB. I treat it like a tie-breaker. I'll take (2010) Manning over Rodgers because I know he's throwing inside or in Florida in December and not the frozen tundra or freezing sideways-blowing rain. This year is a good example, at #4 I'm taking Calvin Johnson over Rodgers with week 15 in Arizona and week 16 under a roof while Rodgers is home/@CHI/home - that's a whole lot of risk. Pressed to take a QB I would take Brees over either Brady or Rodgers - @NYG/dome/dome carries much less risk. Risk mitigation is the key. Obviously you don't know what's going to happen, but there is a much higher likelihood of Jennings getting shut out on the frozen tundra than Steve Smith will in Carolina. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajh2 Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 I agree with Bostonsoxandy and Ice1. I use it to break ties for players and for picking potential late season studs (think C.J. Spiller and R. Bush) for one game shots. But to use it as a major factor when drafting at the beginning of the year, nope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White lightning Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Since I've been drinking the R. Matthews kool aid, his playoff SOS has me a little worried. I understand why some people don't consider SOS when drafting, but when you are talking about your #1 pick and the cornerstone of your team, I thnk it's something you have to take into consideration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 only papajohn mentioned trading. imo,you need to trade to win. playoffs dont matter when drafting. i consider them about week 5-6 when you can make some good deals with teams who need to win-now. Or you might end up being that team that just needs to win now, or risk missing the playoffs entirely. So yeah, pretty much that. Maybe if all else was truly equal, but how often are two players ever truly equal in your eyes that their projected playoff SoS in the preseason is enough to sway you (aside from rare ones like WRs going up against Revis in the playoffs or twice in division, which might well sway me in another direction). The season and injuries can change alot (e.g., will the Baltimore D be dominant without Suggs?), so I'm gonna stick my draft plan of talent + situation and a good mix of safe/consistent and risk/reward players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 No. Week 1 D/ST doesn't always equate to a Week 14 D/ST. It's more hassle than it's worth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted July 9, 2012 Author Share Posted July 9, 2012 Then what about the venue? Warm weather Chargers have to play in PIT and NYJ in their final games. That could be a cold windy one in both matchups potentially. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Then what about the venue? Warm weather Chargers have to play in PIT and NYJ in their final games. That could be a cold windy one in both matchups potentially. All the more reason to own Mathews and Gates IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flemingd Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Then what about the venue? Warm weather Chargers have to play in PIT and NYJ in their final games. That could be a cold windy one in both matchups potentially. Yes, in my system above, SD's schedule is heavily concerning. I won't own many Chargers this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheesebengals Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Normally, I do not, but it depends on the league. In most competitive leagues, making the playoffs in the first place is a battle. In a local friends league where making the playoffs is almost assured, I definitely consider it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCommish Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Ryan Mathews, if healthy, will be fine. I'm a Steelers fan, and I have no stats to back this up, but I believe RBs who are capable receivers still do well against Pittsburgh. They are stout against the run-only guys like Michael Turner and Cedric Benson, but players like Ray Rice and Arian Foster still put up good numbers against them. And Mathews has a good QB that can take advantage of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 The only thing on a players schedule to consider when drafting is a bye week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverback Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Then what about the venue? Warm weather Chargers have to play in PIT and NYJ in their final games. That could be a cold windy one in both matchups potentially. I only consider it when it comes to a kicker, and then I'll get one after/during the bye weeks that will work for the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papajohn Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 The only thing on a players schedule to consider when drafting is a bye week. And it isn't even worth considering that much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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