satelliteoflovegm Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Actually it's not. He said that if you get 3 tails in a row that probability is that the 4th would be a head. The probability is that there would be no favorite. It would be a random 50/50 outcome. Yes I know a coin flip is always 50/50 in a given flip. What I was saying, and admittedly not on point to the discussion, was a human would tend to say it will probably be a head the fourth time after three tails. This is my question about that though, it seems to me to the odds of hitting consecutive sides of a coin in an ongoing trial diminishes each flip. No? But I really don't care about coins here. I care about an ever increasing sample size, given real games, real down and distance, real outcomes, real scores, and real field position that says the percentages favor going for it when traditional football fans would think it wrong. A coach doesn't think, "well the Texans got stuffed, we'd better kick." They're are much smarter folks out there than I, who make a living explaining why it is right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nelsosi Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 There was an article written three or four years ago in an actuarial publication by two actuaries (I know this because I'm an actuary and receive it) that showed, overwhelmingly, that you should almost always go for it on 4th down. There are some exceptions to the rule of course, but the math was overwhelmingly in favour of it. Of course, in the NFL, most coaches play not to lose and ultimately make the 'wrong' call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nelsosi Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 (edited) Case in point - last night the Texans go for it on 4th down, don't get it, end up losing by 3 points. If they had just kicked the field goal the game would have at least gone to overtime where they would've had a chance to win. You're cherry picking one example (you're also assuming Bullock would have made the kick...given he missed 3 other kicks last night, that's not a given). The math says Kubiak made the right call - it doesn't mean it's going to be right 100% of the time, but on average you'll be ahead by going for it. (as an aside, Tate's play on 2nd down of that series was abysmal....for an NFL running back to give himself up short of the first down marker is inexcusable) Edited November 4, 2013 by nelsosi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BA Baracus Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Isnt the unexpected onside kick also wildly successful? I thought I saw somewhere that there is like a 70% chance of recovering it if the receiving team isn't expecting it. A la Saints second half superbowl kickoff... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Isnt the unexpected onside kick also wildly successful? I thought I saw somewhere that there is like a 70% chance of recovering it if the receiving team isn't expecting it. A la Saints second half superbowl kickoff... There you go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BA Baracus Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Isnt the unexpected onside kick also wildly successful? I thought I saw somewhere that there is like a 70% chance of recovering it if the receiving team isn't expecting it. A la Saints second half superbowl kickoff... Speak of the devil... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BA Baracus Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Damnit Big John is fast... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrab Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 There you go. Yep was thinking about this thread when it happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bad Example Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Would be curious to see what numbers you plugged in, the "how you used it" part. Because we're talking about passing on a FG to go for it on 4th down. Minny passed on a FG early in their game vs Dallas to go for it, and failed. Later, they passed on a FG AGAIN to go for it, and AD carried what looked like the entire Dallas defense into the end zone on a td. Net gain/loss for "passing up the points" twice was that they came out 1 pt ahead (1 td > 2 fgs). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bad Example Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Also, last night - not in a "taking the points" situation, but one that would have caused Trestman to be raked over the coals if it had backfired - Chicago goes for it on 4th and 1 on their OWN 32 with 7 minutes left. They get it, bleed the clock down past the 2 minute warning, and guarantee, at worst, overtime with a FG at the end of the drive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron677 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Also, last night - not in a "taking the points" situation, but one that would have caused Trestman to be raked over the coals if it had backfired - Chicago goes for it on 4th and 1 on their OWN 32 with 7 minutes left. They get it, bleed the clock down past the 2 minute warning, and guarantee, at worst, overtime with a FG at the end of the drive. I don't even care that they got it. That was a poor decision - Green Bay was stuffing all the short yardage runs up to that point and there was a guy who actually got within reach of Forte and should've made the tackle for a loss and turnover on downs. Trestman was really playing with fire on that play call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bad Example Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I don't even care that they got it. That was a poor decision - Green Bay was stuffing all the short yardage runs up to that point and there was a guy who actually got within reach of Forte and should've made the tackle for a loss and turnover on downs. Trestman was really playing with fire on that play call. So, like the others in this thread, you'll exhaustively catalog failed 4th and shorts, with no respect to whether the decision was sound or not, and dismiss 4th and shorts that work, with no respect to whether the decision was sound or not. I guess you're at least logically consistent. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shorttynaz Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 (edited) Bears just passed on a 40 yard FG and went for it. Stuffed. Edited November 10, 2013 by Shorttynaz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shorttynaz Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Bears just passed on a 40 yard FG and went for it. Stuffed. AAAAAAAAAANNNDDD they lose by 2.. Hmmm.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
satelliteoflovegm Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Stop it...you're embarrassing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shorttynaz Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Stop it...you're embarrassing. Every week i watch the redzone channel. They don't show the plays where a team goes for 4th deep in their own territory. All i ever refer to are the ones where a team is well within fg range and they pass on the fg and get stuffed. It's one thing if the game were on the line at the time but most out not all the ones I've pointed out have happened in the first half. And of all the ones I've mentioned have been brought up well before the end of the game. Bears did it to themselves today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shorttynaz Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 DUMB! Bengals just did it in OT!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shorttynaz Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 And lost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron677 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Bengals and Bears both cost themselves the games failing on 4th down. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shorttynaz Posted November 10, 2013 Author Share Posted November 10, 2013 Bengals and Bears both cost themselves the games failing on 4th down. Yep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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