jamesplante11

Landry to Cleveland

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don't draft a QB in the top five ever and he's why:

  1. trubisky
  2. goff
  3. wentz
  4. winston
  5. bortles
  6. luck
  7. newton
  8. RG3
  9. sam bradford
  10. matt ryan
  11. matthew stafford
  12. mark sanchez
  13. JaMarcus Russell
  14. vince young
  15. alex smith
  16. philip rivers
  17. carson palmer
  18. david carr
  19. joey harrington
  20. michael vick
  21. Tim Couch
  22. donovan mcnabb
  23. akili smith
  24. ryan leaf
  25. steve mcnair
  26. kerry collins
  27. heath shuler
  28. drew bledsoe
  29. rick mirer
  30. jeff george
  31. Vinny Testaverde

how many superbowls have they won? In the past 30 years, out of 34 QBs drafted in the top five picks, only three (manning, manning, and aikman) have won a superbowl.

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4 hours ago, LordOpie said:

 

he talks like championships are won or lost by one guy on the team. Even Michael Jordan had a quality group of guys around him.

 

 

This.  It takes a village to raise a football team.  The players drafted at the top of the NFL draft don't have a very disproportionate number of NFL championships regardless of position.  It's probably compounded by the fact that the teams that draft them are in shambles and often poorly run.  I don't think the Michael Jordan analogy works, though.  Shaquille O'Neal, Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Hakeem Olajuwon, Kobe Bryant, and Tim Duncan are 6 players.  They have collectively won 22 of the last 27 NBA championships.

 

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5 hours ago, LordOpie said:

don't draft a QB in the top five ever and he's why:

  1. trubisky
  2. goff
  3. wentz
  4. winston
  5. bortles
  6. luck
  7. newton
  8. RG3
  9. sam bradford
  10. matt ryan
  11. matthew stafford
  12. mark sanchez
  13. JaMarcus Russell
  14. vince young
  15. alex smith
  16. philip rivers
  17. carson palmer
  18. david carr
  19. joey harrington
  20. michael vick
  21. Tim Couch
  22. donovan mcnabb
  23. akili smith
  24. ryan leaf
  25. steve mcnair
  26. kerry collins
  27. heath shuler
  28. drew bledsoe
  29. rick mirer
  30. jeff george
  31. Vinny Testaverde

how many superbowls have they won? In the past 30 years, out of 34 QBs drafted in the top five picks, only three (manning, manning, and aikman) have won a superbowl.

 

That is a damning list.  The last time a quarterback was taken in the first round and won a Super Bowl was Joe Flacco 10 years ago at pick 18 (except Carson Wentz).

 

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5 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

The last time a quarterback was taken in the first round and won a Super Bowl was Joe Flacco 10 years ago at pick 18 (except Carson Wentz).

 

:thinking:

 

Uhhhh...   Whatchu talkin about Willis??

 

Eli Manning 2008

Ben Roethlisberger 2009

Aaron Rodgers 2011

Eli Manning 2012

Peyton Manning 2016

Carson Wentz 2017

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13 hours ago, keggerz said:

This should be all the explanation you'll need for why I feel that way: https://twitter.com/i/moments/972697630060015616

 

So basically great players don't often help teams win Super Bowls so don't draft them?

 

So if he falls to 11-20 or later, somebody should draft him there, since a higher percentage of RBs drafted there helped their teams win a SB?

 

Sorry, that seems like cherry picking stats to support a hypothesis.

 

PS  For those saying "that guy doesn't know what he's talking about", keggerz is that guy (Steve Gallo who sent the tweets), a long respected member of the huddle, but I have to say off base on this analysis.

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5 hours ago, michaelredd9 said:

 

That is a damning list.  The last time a quarterback was taken in the first round and won a Super Bowl was Joe Flacco 10 years ago at pick 18 (except Carson Wentz).

 

Guys like Brady, Manning, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Wilson and Rothlisberger might have had something to say there.  Even if the one player argument held water, that’s a tough group to punch through.

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19 minutes ago, Shorttynaz said:

:thinking:

 

Uhhhh...   Whatchu talkin about Willis??

 

Eli Manning 2008

Ben Roethlisberger 2009

Aaron Rodgers 2011

Eli Manning 2012

Peyton Manning 2016

Carson Wentz 2017

Oh....don’t be a PITA.  He just worded it poorly.  Flacco was the last player to be drafted as a first round QB to win a SB.

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5 minutes ago, Caveman_Nick said:

Oh....don’t be a PITA.  He just worded it poorly.  Flacco was the last player to be drafted as a first round QB to win a SB.

I don't know if you're being a smartass or trying to help make his point.  But still doesn't make sense to me.  Every one of these players I listed were drafted as a 1st round QB

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10 minutes ago, Caveman_Nick said:

Guys like Brady, Manning, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Wilson and Rothlisberger might have had something to say there.  Even if the one player argument held water, that’s a tough group to punch through.

He said 1st round.. 

 

Brees - 2nd round

Wilson - 3rd round 

Brady - 6th round

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Shorttynaz said:

I don't know if you're being a smartass or trying to help make his point.  But still doesn't make sense to me.  Every one of these players I listed were drafted as a 1st round QB

I think it was miscommunication.

I think mr9 was saying that flacco was the most recent QB to be a 1st round pick who won the SB. In other words, out of the 27 QBs drafted in the 1st*, only one of them won it all.

 

* EDIT: in the past 10 years.

Edited by LordOpie
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12 minutes ago, LordOpie said:

I think it was miscommunication.

I think mr9 was saying that flacco was the most recent QB to be a 1st round pick who won the SB. In other words, out of the 27 QBs drafted in the 1st*, only one of them won it all.

 

* EDIT: in the past 10 years.

 Correct, and my point was that any QB drafted in the first round has had a heck of a stone wall to break through, regardless of where TB, etc., were drafted.

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My wording was ambiguous.  Not one quarterback drafted in the first round since 2008 has won a Super Bowl (except Carson Wentz).

 

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46 minutes ago, michaelredd9 said:

My wording was ambiguous.  Not one quarterback drafted in the first round since 2008 has won a Super Bowl (except Carson Wentz).

 

 

Technically Wentz was only on the SB winning team, he didn't even play in the playoffs. Sure he got a SB ring but calling him a SB winning QB requires a super sized * 

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3 hours ago, stevegrab said:

 

Technically Wentz was only on the SB winning team, he didn't even play in the playoffs. Sure he got a SB ring but calling him a SB winning QB requires a super sized * 

I guarantee that mr9 put wentz in parenthesis exactly floor that reason. Was that not clear?

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4 hours ago, Caveman_Nick said:

 Correct, and my point was that any QB drafted in the first round has had a heck of a stone wall to break through, regardless of where TB, etc., were drafted.

And the real point is... How can anyone say that the data suggests drafting a rb in top 5 is a bad idea? ... When the same can be said for qbs

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Posted (edited)

Been too swamped to reply and still am but it all comes down to supply & demand as well as positional importance. I’ll come back later to expound, once I get a chance. 

 

 

Also, nothing was cherry picked. There was a genuine interest in something so I started to mine the data. Nothing more, nothing less. 

 

Fwiw, my initial gut was QB at 1.1 & Barkley at 1.4.  

Edited by keggerz

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FWIW, no way Barkley is available at 1.4

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1 hour ago, LordOpie said:

FWIW, no way Barkley is available at 1.4

 

Agreed, if Cleveland passes on Barkley at 1 the only thing left up for debate is if the NYG owner flogs his dolphin before or after the GM Sends in the ticket to take Barkley at 2

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, LordOpie said:

I guarantee that mr9 put wentz in parenthesis exactly floor that reason. Was that not clear?

 

I figured he was in parentheses since he was the exception to the rest of the statement.

 

"Not one quarterback drafted in the first round since 2008 has won a Super Bowl (except Carson Wentz)."

 

 

Edited by stevegrab

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8 hours ago, LordOpie said:

FWIW, no way Barkley is available at 1.4

 

7 hours ago, jamesplante11 said:

 

Agreed, if Cleveland passes on Barkley at 1 the only thing left up for debate is if the NYG owner flogs his dolphin before or after the GM Sends in the ticket to take Barkley at 2

That feeling was pre-combine but I still think he'll fall farther than people think. Why? Because I don't buy that the Giants are going to forsake taking a QB when Eli isn't very good and they need an heir. That leaves Indy at 3. The only way I can see Indy taking Barkley is if Cleveland takes Chubb at 1.1 but even then they probably still go D. As for a trade up to get Barkley, the draft cost to take him that early is way high as it is, let alone someone ponying up more to trade up into the top 4 to get him. Could it happen? Sure, I just don't think it will. 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, keggerz said:

Been too swamped to reply and still am but it all comes down to supply & demand as well as positional importance. I’ll come back later to expound, once I get a chance. 

 

 

Also, nothing was cherry picked. There was a genuine interest in something so I started to mine the data. Nothing more, nothing less. 

 

Fwiw, my initial gut was QB at 1.1 & Barkley at 1.4.  

Other factors that I figured would have been assumed when it comes to taking a RB that high...

 

The NFL is a QB driven league and as I stated earlier, it's all about supply and demand and there's never enough of a supply of QBs. Teams can always cobble together a running attack but they're less likely to do so at QB. Look at Dallas and GB as two examples. Alf & Rod stepped in and did a decent job while Zeke was out. That wasn't the case for GB when Rodgers went down. I'm sure there are other similar situations that could be pointed to, too. 

 

I know that things are looking up for the Browns but there is still no denying that over the past X number of seasons that they've been one of the worst teams in the league. I can't speak to all of those HOFers I referenced but I feel safe saying that most if not all probably didn't go into situations as bad as where the Browns are coming from. 

 

As for the Browns, I'm not a homer, but my wife is a Browns fan so I have a rooting interest in them succeeding. No matter what route they take, I hope it works out for them. 

Edited by keggerz

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On 3/12/2018 at 6:02 PM, LordOpie said:

And the real point is... How can anyone say that the data suggests drafting a rb in top 5 is a bad idea? ... When the same can be said for qbs

Because they are basically apples and oranges. If you or anyone else doesn't get that teams will reach and overpay much more often than not for QBs dues to their overall importance to a team's success than a RB then I can't help ya. 

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Lol  defensive much

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On 3/12/2018 at 12:43 AM, LordOpie said:

i'm reading some of that nonsense, just wow...

he talks like championships are won or lost by one guy on the team. Even Michael Jordan had a quality group of guys around him. Should Dan Marino be removed from the HoF?

Also, as someone who has master's level classes in statistics, econometrics, modeling... I know just enough to say that guy couldn't crunch data to get a straight line between two points.

 

2 hours ago, LordOpie said:

Lol  defensive much

Why wouldn't I be?

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Fwiw, a source of mine (same one I broke KFuller as the player to be named later from) says that at the combine Hue said they are taking Barkley. People said I was crazy when I said Fulle was the PTBNL, even as he said he wasn't traded and while I have a hard time believing it I have to report what I find out, no matter if I agree with it or not. But I am skeptical to an extent since it was said at the combine in a passing convo which is why I'm a bit skeptical, but it is what it is. 

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