k_23 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Just thought about this, since nothing else going on... Early 12 Team PPR League: 1 Keeper per team for 2 year max in round drafted. Who would you keep pick one? Tyreek Hill for 2nd round Pick Aaron Jones Rb for 3rd Round Pick Lamar Jackson for 9th Round Pick Nick Chubb for 10th Round (keeper this past year so can only keep one more year) Starting primary Running backs are hard to come by after first 2 rounds on average in our drafts and after keepers. Team with best RBS usually are hard to beat we start 1qb, 2wrs 2rbs, 1 te, 1 (wr/rb flex) and 1 (wr, te, rb flex) 1 kicker, 1 def/st Alot are keepers for other teams are Rbs my guess off last years keepers are (Cmac, Elliott, Barkley, Kamara, Cook, and Drake, other keepers at other positions are Kittle, Mahomes Micheal Thomas and Davante Adams are few keepers) My first thought is defiantly keep Lamar Jackson for 9th round pick. Since he was the highest points scorer last season....Second choice might be Aaron Jones for 3rd Then, Tyreek Hill for 2nd is hard to pass on close 2nd with Jones...I usally get BPA in First(RB or WR) and end up with two starting after/by 3rd round pick... I know QB points can be had later but Jackson won some game for me last year with his points. Who would you pick and why. Thanks in advance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zips5000 Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 Personally I would take Chubb. I would see why a lot of people would want Lamar, but I view QBs as basically interchangeable. What's the likelihood he has a similar season as last one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted April 30, 2020 Share Posted April 30, 2020 36 minutes ago, zips5000 said: Personally I would take Chubb. I would see why a lot of people would want Lamar, but I view QBs as basically interchangeable. What's the likelihood he has a similar season as last one? I agree with this. Unless there is something funky in your scoring system that drives QB scoring way up (since the lineup doesn't appear to be a 2QB or Superflex league), there is generally little value in keeping a QB. Chubb for a 10th provides much greater value in my opinion than either Hill for a 2nd or Jones for a 3rd. You lock up one of your starting RB spots for essentially the round that backups would go, giving you a ton of flexibility to draft BPA throughout the draft and maximize value with each pick rather than have to chase and fill a need early because you don't have one of your early picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan1978 Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 I would go Chubb, RB’s are thin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Montana is da Man Posted May 8, 2020 Share Posted May 8, 2020 Chubb in the 10th is a steal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
League_Champion Posted May 9, 2020 Share Posted May 9, 2020 15 hours ago, Montana is da Man said: Chubb in the 10th is a steal Agree, It's a no brainer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossterbater Posted May 11, 2020 Share Posted May 11, 2020 Jackson and Jones are going to regress big time while hill and Chubb won't. Chubb in the 10th round is a massive steal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k_23 Posted June 25, 2020 Author Share Posted June 25, 2020 I guess league has weird scoring.... I attached photo of scoring leaders in our League. 1.Lamar Jackson 518.95 outscored 2. C McCaffery scored 448.40. Most of leaders are QB’s. But Lamar higher significant higher points, but experts say he should regress some this year Nick Chubb had 250 A Jones had 298.50 Makes it hard not to keep Lamar for 9th round, I understand value aspect. last season I kept Chubb for 10th and dropped back Saquon Barkley for 1st for value reasons. I won Championship This is a key choice, I mainly between ( Lamar for 9th, Chubb for 10th, Tyreek Hill for 2nd, and maybe Aaron Jones for 3rd) Tyreek Hill for second is ok too since projected as #4 wr And top 2 WRs are keepers in (Thomas and Adams) A Jones for 3rd is ok since will be a first round with keepers. sorry for long post but was not sure if points would change peoples minds from Chubb to a different player(Lamar Hill or Jones) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 Based on your scoring, I would say it appears that Lamar is the easy choice. Do a quick simple valuation - one way that is simple but at least gives an idea of positional value is the worst starter method. Since you start 1 QB, just look at the spread between QB1 and QB12 to get an idea of the value spread at QB (I prefer to do a 3 year average when I have time, but for simplicity sake you can just look at last year) 0 Spread calculated as QB1-QB12, QB2-QB12 and so on (super easy to do in Excel) In this case, since Cousins actually is your QB12, we know Jackson had a value of 518.95 - 332.45 = 186.5 Rinse and repeat for each QB (thus you can slot a value into your rankings for this year - ie if calc says QB4 is a value of 137 pts, you can assign that to whomever you rank at QB4, assuming you don't do your own projections based on your scoring system) For RB, look at the spread of RB1 - RB 24 (for now we will ignore the flex positions aspect) and do the same calculation using RB24 as the baseline (as you start 2 RBs) DO the same thing, come up with values to assign to RB1 - RB24. Let's say you have Chubb as RB5 this season - just assign him the value you came up with for RB5. Now look at the values you came up with for Jackson and Chubb - as their cost is very similar, it would be wise to keep the one with the higher value, which I am going to go out and make a relatively safe guess that it is Jackson. The above method is rather simple and works best if you take the average of at least 3 years (looking at QB1 from each year, not worrying about the name associated with the final ranking), but it is fairly effective in showing where the positional value is within your league based on your scoring and lineup settings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zips5000 Posted June 25, 2020 Share Posted June 25, 2020 Personal preference... I'm still with Chubb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k_23 Posted August 23, 2020 Author Share Posted August 23, 2020 I have to lock keeper on Tuesday, just and I will have the number 6 pick in draft. Is Chubb still favorite? I am still finding it hard not to keep Lamar. Thanks for all the help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 4 hours ago, k_23 said: I have to lock keeper on Tuesday, just and I will have the number 6 pick in draft. Is Chubb still favorite? I am still finding it hard not to keep Lamar. Thanks for all the help. What did your player valuations tell you? Does Lamar or Chubb present greater value based on your scoring system? From the little that you have shown, it sure looks like that based on your scoring system, Jackson is the easy pick if you think he will come close to last year's production. He was the top QB by over 100 points over the #2 QB and outscored QB11 by 180 points. Chubb only scored 250 points on the entire season, I guarantee he didn't outscore the guys you're looking at as low end starters by 180 points as well, and there is nothing in his situation that screams major improvement this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k_23 Posted August 23, 2020 Author Share Posted August 23, 2020 59 minutes ago, Big Country said: What did your player valuations tell you? Does Lamar or Chubb present greater value based on your scoring system? From the little that you have shown, it sure looks like that based on your scoring system, Jackson is the easy pick if you think he will come close to last year's production. He was the top QB by over 100 points over the #2 QB and outscored QB11 by 180 points. Chubb only scored 250 points on the entire season, I guarantee he didn't outscore the guys you're looking at as low end starters by 180 points as well, and there is nothing in his situation that screams major improvement this year. On evaluation spread as described based on scoring system, Lamar Jackson has the greatest spread by far. My hold up is the running back position scarcity for top scoring rb1 or rb2’s. So far rb keeper are Barkley, Cmac, Elliott, and maybe Drake. Most drafts qbs wait that why I question. thanks for the help Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 23, 2020 Share Posted August 23, 2020 1 hour ago, k_23 said: On evaluation spread as described based on scoring system, Lamar Jackson has the greatest spread by far. My hold up is the running back position scarcity for top scoring rb1 or rb2’s. So far rb keeper are Barkley, Cmac, Elliott, and maybe Drake. Most drafts qbs wait that why I question. thanks for the help Do you think Lamar will come anywhere close to last year's production. If the answer is yes, then it does not matter who your RBs are, you are not making up the spread Jackson gives you. Given your scoring system, you are overthinking this trying to apply the logic of standard scoring systems to your league. Your system is extremely QB friendly and the spread in scoring shows that. Lock in Lamar for a 9th, hammer BPA early in your draft and profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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