Pirate lookin' at 40 Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 I live in Tennessee and have never seen Manning last past the first round. He went second in a draft I was in last week. Insane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 I live in Tennessee and have never seen Manning last past the first round. He went second in a draft I was in last week. Insane. Did Travis the Cheese go 3rd? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gonkis Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 My nieghbors are in a local together. I dropped it for a both league a couple years back when half the group didn't pay their fees and never looked back... Here's the story from the live daft they did... Neighbor 1 ALWAYS drafts Manning first round. Has done this for 3 years or so and has done pretty well, actually winning it last year, I heard. Well, this year, Neighbor 2 draws the 7 spot and Neighbor 1 the 9 spot. You see it coming, Neighbor2 took Manning. Long story short, neighbor 1's wife toilet papered neighbor 2's house because of it. That's right, his wife. Some people will never get it.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 Tis the season to bump this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patsfan39 Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 Tis the season to bump this I read some of the info on the first post. Pretty interesting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The mann Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 I read some of the info on the first post. Pretty interesting... Manning is good but he isn't a 1st round pick this year! Too many other good fantasy players ahead of him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 8, 2009 Author Share Posted July 8, 2009 Manning is good but he isn't a 1st round pick this year! Too many other good fantasy players ahead of him. Realize that the original post is from two years ago, and this year, could be titled Why Brady/Brees/insert QB flavor of the year is not a first round pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddieo Posted July 31, 2009 Share Posted July 31, 2009 Very interested stuff Big Country. Now, I've applied everything you have mentioned to my league. However, I used percentage of drop off, rather than point dropoff (I feel this is more accurate determination of value) 16 Teams - QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R, Q/W/R/T, K, DEF, BN, BN, BN I draft 13th overall, and I used last years draft results to determine which QB/RB/WR I would land when drafting, and the percent dropoff until my next pick. I hope that wasn't confusing, but anyways, here is what I found... RD...PICK ................Drop....................... Drop........................Drop 1.....13.......QB3.......8.25%.....RB11........6%...........WR1........2% 2.....20.......QB6.......21.70%...RB13........15.60%...WR3.........23.80% 3.....45.......QB15.....0.00%.....RB20........4.20%.....WR11......11.60% 4.....52.......QB15.....11.20%...RB23........19.30%...WR15.......5% 5.....77.......QB24.....0.00%.....RB31........9.40%.....WR21.......7.70% 6.....84.......QB24......1.00%....RB34........10.30%...WR25.......21.30% 7.....109.....QB25......1%.........RB38.........0%.........WR39.......11.30% 8.....116.....QB26......1%.........RB38.........3.60%....WR42.......27.60% 9.....141.....QB26....................RB41....................... WR54 Okay, to sum this up, basically it means that with my first pick, I'll land either the 3rd best QB, the 11th best RB, or the best receiver. The drop off to my next pick for QB is 8.25%, 6% for RB, and 2% for WR. So, with this drop off valuation, I determine that with my first pick I want the 3rd best QB. I used this all the way down to find the ideal draft scenario for the first 8 rounds. I don't want to touch and TE, K, or DEF until late draft. Here's what I came up with.... RD PICK 1 13 QB3 2 20 WR3 3 45 RB20 4 52 QB15 5 77 RB31 6 84 WR25 7 109 WR39 8 116 WR42 9 141 Does this sound like a good strategy (obviously assuming the draft is similar to last year, which it should be) Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DO Jaded Posted July 31, 2009 Share Posted July 31, 2009 Very interested stuff Big Country. Now, I've applied everything you have mentioned to my league.However, I used percentage of drop off, rather than point dropoff (I feel this is more accurate determination of value) 16 Teams - QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, W/R, Q/W/R/T, K, DEF, BN, BN, BN I draft 13th overall, and I used last years draft results to determine which QB/RB/WR I would land when drafting, and the percent dropoff until my next pick. I hope that wasn't confusing, but anyways, here is what I found... RD...PICK ................Drop....................... Drop........................Drop 1.....13.......QB3.......8.25%.....RB11........6%...........WR1........2% 2.....20.......QB6.......21.70%...RB13........15.60%...WR3.........23.80% 3.....45.......QB15.....0.00%.....RB20........4.20%.....WR11......11.60% 4.....52.......QB15.....11.20%...RB23........19.30%...WR15.......5% 5.....77.......QB24.....0.00%.....RB31........9.40%.....WR21.......7.70% 6.....84.......QB24......1.00%....RB34........10.30%...WR25.......21.30% 7.....109.....QB25......1%.........RB38.........0%.........WR39.......11.30% 8.....116.....QB26......1%.........RB38.........3.60%....WR42.......27.60% 9.....141.....QB26....................RB41....................... WR54 Okay, to sum this up, basically it means that with my first pick, I'll land either the 3rd best QB, the 11th best RB, or the best receiver. The drop off to my next pick for QB is 8.25%, 6% for RB, and 2% for WR. So, with this drop off valuation, I determine that with my first pick I want the 3rd best QB. I used this all the way down to find the ideal draft scenario for the first 8 rounds. I don't want to touch and TE, K, or DEF until late draft. Here's what I came up with.... RD PICK 1 13 QB3 2 20 WR3 3 45 RB20 4 52 QB15 5 77 RB31 6 84 WR25 7 109 WR39 8 116 WR42 9 141 Does this sound like a good strategy (obviously assuming the draft is similar to last year, which it should be) Thanks! HUGH mistake! Unless your league actually calculates winners based off "percentage" difference in each position, you [have] to look at total point dropoff to compare the various positions. Example of using % dropoff: If Kickers only average 8 points per game, a kicker scoring 3 less is a 36% dropoff. For a QB position that averages 15, that 3 points is only about a 19% dropoff. Does that make the kicker more valuable? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddieo Posted July 31, 2009 Share Posted July 31, 2009 HUGH mistake! Unless your league actually calculates winners based off "percentage" difference in each position, you [have] to look at total point dropoff to compare the various positions. Example of using % dropoff: If Kickers only average 8 points per game, a kicker scoring 3 less is a 36% dropoff. For a QB position that averages 15, that 3 points is only about a 19% dropoff. Does that make the kicker more valuable? Okay. So I re-did this all then using point value and came back with similar results... RD...PICK ................Drop....................... Drop......................Drop 1.....13.......QB3.......25...........RB11........12............WR1----------4 2.....20.......QB6.......54...........RB13........28............WR3----------39 3.....45.......QB15.....0.............RB20........7.............WR11---------17 4.....52.......QB15.....25...........RB23........27............WR15---------7 5.....77.......QB24.....0.............RB31........12............WR21---------9 6.....84.......QB24......2............RB34........12............WR25---------23 7.....109.....QB25......1............RB38.........0.............WR39---------11 8.....116.....QB26......0............RB38.........4.............WR42---------21 9.....141.....QB26....................RB41....................... WR54 Only rounds 2 and 3 would change and the final would look like... RD PICK 1 13 QB3 2 20 QB6 3 45 WR11 4 52 RB23 5 77 RB31 6 84 WR25 7 109 WR39 8 116 WR42 9 141 Better and more reliable? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 31, 2009 Author Share Posted July 31, 2009 Results are not that surprising given your leagues lineup requirements and size. How did you account for the flex spots? That would prove to be a bit tricky given that you not only have two flex spots, but that they encompass different positions but with overlap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DO Jaded Posted August 1, 2009 Share Posted August 1, 2009 I think you're also not including the fact that the drop off is cumulative, as in each time you take one position in a round, each other position takes the additional drop off into the next round. Additionally, you need to account for the fact that you only start one QB, but multiple WR, so each dropoff is almost multiplied as well. If you take a backup QB before drafting your first RB or WR, your season is almost over before it starts. So, as I see it, the main flaw in this approach is that you are just looking from one pick to the next for all three positions. However, each pick is tied to all other picks and can't be compared just 1-to-1. If you take a QB in round one, you won't take either your first RB or first WR till round 3, and you still need 3 more starters across RB/WR, so you are looking at rounds 4,5,6 provided you don't take QB2 in there. So shifting all of those rounds by one because you took the QB in 1 has a cascading effect on each pick, and the sum of those effects need to be added and compared to what you lose going from Round1 QB to Round 6 or 7 QB. Looking just at what pick is next and not how it affects the rest of the draft is shortsighted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Company of Heroes Posted August 1, 2009 Share Posted August 1, 2009 According to his original email, he can start a 2nd QB as a flex... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddieo Posted August 1, 2009 Share Posted August 1, 2009 Results are not that surprising given your leagues lineup requirements and size. How did you account for the flex spots? That would prove to be a bit tricky given that you not only have two flex spots, but that they encompass different positions but with overlap. Well, for the flex spots, here's what I did... Since this draft is very similar to last years draft for this league all I did was look at the first 9 rounds from last year and find out how many QB/RB/WR would be drafted. So I found that 26QB, 41RB and 54WR were drafted in those first 9 rounds. I just assumed that a similar number of each position would be drafted again. Then based on that, I compared QB#1-25 to QB#26, and continued that pattern for each position. And then I came up with those results. So although not 100% accurate, I feel it is a solid representation of what I should expect going into draft day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DO Jaded Posted August 1, 2009 Share Posted August 1, 2009 According to his original email, he can start a 2nd QB as a flex... Okay, I missed that part. So grabbing the QB2 earlier is not that bad. However, I still stand by my position that a simple "How does my next pick compare to this current pick." approach is still too short-sighted to run your entire draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddieo Posted August 1, 2009 Share Posted August 1, 2009 Okay, I missed that part. So grabbing the QB2 earlier is not that bad. However, I still stand by my position that a simple "How does my next pick compare to this current pick." approach is still too short-sighted to run your entire draft. Hmm.. Expand on that.. I'm not 100% sure I follow you.. Maybe provide an example? Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DO Jaded Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 Hmm.. Expand on that.. I'm not 100% sure I follow you.. Maybe provide an example? Thanks. Instead of looking at how much you lose at a single position for each draft pick, you should mock the entire draft and add up the overall points for your starters. Then do a few more mocks where you change up which position you pick and see which one results in the highest point total. However, I think I can show my point using the numbers you gave. RD...PICK ................Drop....................... Drop......................Drop1.....13.......QB3.......25...........RB11........12............WR1----------4 2.....20.......QB6.......54...........RB13........28............WR3----------39 3.....45.......QB15.....0.............RB20........7.............WR11---------17 4.....52.......QB15.....25...........RB23........27............WR15---------7 5.....77.......QB24.....0.............RB31........12............WR21---------9 6.....84.......QB24......2............RB34........12............WR25---------23 7.....109.....QB25......1............RB38.........0.............WR39---------11 8.....116.....QB26......0............RB38.........4.............WR42---------21 9.....141.....QB26....................RB41....................... WR54 Only rounds 2 and 3 would change and the final would look like... RD PICK 1 13 QB3 - You save 25 points by taking this QB over the one in the next round. 2 20 QB6 - You saved 54 points. This is a big hit, and may be worth taking your first QB here, since you can start two. 3 45 WR11 - This WR is 43 points less then what you could have had in the first, which in my opinion hurts more then the 325 you saved with your QB. 4 52 RB23 - 47 points lower than the RB in round 1, 35 less than round 2. 5 77 RB31 - 62 points off from round 2 pick. 6 84 WR25 - Only a 16 point drop from round 4. 7 109 WR39 - A big 32 point drop from round 5. 8 116 WR42 - An even bigger drop from round 6 (34) 9 141 So if I use your numbers, and I instead select the following, I will come out with a net gain. 1. RB (Saved 47 from your #1 RB, Round 1 vs round 4, adding round 1,2,3 point loss in the position) 2. QB (That 54 points is huge.) (Lost 25) 3. WR (Even, since both #1 WR are in the 3rd)) 4. RB (Saved 27) 5. WR ( Saved 9) 6. WR (Saved 23) 7. WR (Saved 11) 8. QB (Lost 82) So, I lost 107 points off the QB position, but gained 117 taking WR and RBs a little earlier each round. If I forgo QB all together: 1. RB (Save 47) 2. WR (Save 39) 3. WR (Save 33) 4. RB (Save 27) 5 WR ( Save 32) 6. WR (Save 34) 7. QB (Lose 106) 8. QB (Lose 83) Lose a whopping 189 points on the two QB slots, and gain 212 on WR and RB. So, even better. The big savings comes in the fact that after the first 3-4 QB, once you given up the 79 points, you really give up very little beyond that. Yes, there is another 25 point drop along the way, but couple with several 0-2 point drops. However, you RBs and WRs, keep dropping 10-20 point per round, and that cumulative affect really adds up along the way. And once you add in that 9th pick for the Flex W/R and the TE slot, the savings will be even higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DO Jaded Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 Realize of course that as you change which position you pick each round, you will probably affect which position a few of your leaguemates select, change available playes for each consecutive round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddieo Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 When I first read your post, I thought you were crazy... but now I did all the calculations using the projected points I have and I came up with the following... (your first mock) 1. RB 213.57 2. QB 303.35 3. WR 163.95 4. RB 167.43 5. WR 140.43 6. WR 130.57 7. WR 107.82 8. QB 221.43 Total 1448.54 (your second mock) 1. RB 213.57 2. WR 203.20 3. WR 163.95 4. RB 167.43 5. WR 140.43 6. WR 130.57 7. QB 222.39 8. QB 221.43 Total 1462.97 (my mock) 1 QB3 328.24 2 QB6 303.35 3 WR11 163.95 4 RB23 167.43 5 RB31 139.80 6 WR25 130.57 7 WR39 107.82 8 WR42 96.93 Total 1438.09 Although all very close, it is clear that your second mock was in fact the best projected draft. I am actually quite amazed that you can wait so long on QBs and come up with an even better projected team. But, does it really make sense to wait that long on QBs when so many will be drafted? Going into this year, to me at least, it seems that the running back position has the most question marks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DO Jaded Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 Going into this year, to me at least, it seems that the running back position has the most question marks. Seems to me, that in itself is enough reason to grab a couple of consistent RBs while you can, before taking a QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xPattonx Posted August 2, 2009 Share Posted August 2, 2009 The original post was from Aug of 2006. You don't have to agree but it makes a good point Here's what I know to be a fact. Year after year in CBS 12 team money leagues when you look at the teams that make the playoffs most all teams feature high level fantasy QB's, and yes, I've seen quite a few featuring Manning. I do agree that taking a QB in round 1 puts you way behind the 8 ball though. I don't generally take a QB until round 4-5. This year there seems to be quite a bit of value in round 4 (I snagged Warner in round 4 a couple of days ago). So I do agree that taking a QB too early can have you playing catch up in terms of rb/wr talent but if you wait too late you will most likely regret it unless you get lucky and your late round QB has a much better than expected season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddieo Posted August 3, 2009 Share Posted August 3, 2009 Okay, so what would you rather want your starting line up to look like (remember, these guys start every week) QB- Shaun Hill QB- Chad Pennington RB- Steve Slaton RB- Reggie Bush WR- Andre Johnson WR- Marques Colston WR- DeSean Jackson FLEX- Santana Moss QB- Peyton Manning QB- Philip Rivers RB- Reggie Bush RB- Julius Jones WR- Marques Colston WR- Santana Moss WR-Mark Clayton FLEX- Fred Jackson In a 16 team 2QB league, which team is more enticing to take? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 3, 2009 Author Share Posted August 3, 2009 2007 Tom Brady 50 TD's. Prolly worth a 1st rounder that year. And I bet you were the one that KNEW he would practically double his TD average that year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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