Ursa Majoris Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 The chart you linked to distorts percentage increases ... 10% of $1,000 is $100 ... 10% of $10,000 is $1,000. Your chart would reflect the same percentage move as being 10x more significant on the higher dollar amount. The chart I linked to shows the same 10% move as looking the same (in terms of magnitude up and down visually) regardless if the starting amount was $1,000 or $10,000. Gotcha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Gotcha. You always wanna look at log charts. Note that most mutual fund marketing packets don't show log charts ... they show linear charts for a reason. Distortion of reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Here's another fun picture. The demographics in the US today are pretty similar to Japans back in the late 1980s / early 1990s when the Nikkei was peaking. Anybody else interested in experiencing an 80% drop over 13 years? Are you suggesting we get out of the market now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 (edited) Are you suggesting we get out of the market now? No. That is for you and your investment advisor to determine. That said, it's always a good idea to keep an open mind to what is reasonable and what is unreasonable. It is always a good idea to realize that what happened in the past may or may not continue indefinately into the future. If you (or anyone else for that matter) wants to discuss this off the MB, let me know. Generally speaking, the "unexpected" happens much more frequently than people will admit. Read "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan" both by Nassim Taleb for more detail on this type of thing. Both are worthwhile reading for anyone that makes a living by making decisions whos success (or not) are at least somewhat dependent on others' actions in the future. Edited April 26, 2007 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 buy low, sell high Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtomicCEO Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 No. That is for you and your investment advisor to determine. That said, it's always a good idea to keep an open mind to what is reasonable and what is unreasonable. It is always a good idea to realize that what happened in the past may or may not continue indefinately into the future. If you (or anyone else for that matter) wants to discuss this off the MB, let me know. Generally speaking, the "unexpected" happens much more frequently than people will admit. Read "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan" both by Nassim Taleb for more detail on this type of thing. Both are worthwhile reading for anyone that makes a living by making decisions whos success (or not) are at least somewhat dependent on others' actions in the future. Ok. Now I'm scared. I'm converting all my money to Taiwainese Yuan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Ok. Now I'm scared. I'm converting all my money to Taiwainese Yuan. i was thinken abut converting all mine to the future money of the south.... pesos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtomicCEO Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 i was thinken abut converting all mine to the future money of the south.... pesos It's potential is unlimited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skins Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 hole Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewer Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 hole Over rated band. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 No. That is for you and your investment advisor to determine. That said, it's always a good idea to keep an open mind to what is reasonable and what is unreasonable. It is always a good idea to realize that what happened in the past may or may not continue indefinately into the future. If you (or anyone else for that matter) wants to discuss this off the MB, let me know. Generally speaking, the "unexpected" happens much more frequently than people will admit. Read "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan" both by Nassim Taleb for more detail on this type of thing. Both are worthwhile reading for anyone that makes a living by making decisions whos success (or not) are at least somewhat dependent on others' actions in the future. If you've got free advice to share that will keep us all from losing the shirts off our backs, please share. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sundaynfl Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 I really think that we are in a true global economy where trade is relatively unrestricted; prior to the Korean war, the global economy was experiencing the same growth at a slower rate. Ships were allowed to deliver goods all over the world. When the Korean War started global markets started to decrease and interest rates started to rise and peaked during the Carter administration. During the late 80's the global economy started to become unrestricted again allowing growth at an unrestricted rate. With the end of the cold war we have seen global economic growth at a pace never seen before. The world economy is becoming more inner-twined and when one economy expands it tends to help other global markets. When an economy or stock market sneezes... i.e. Asia in Feb. the world markets felt the effects. A few years ago this would not have been the case, the US markets would have probably went up as other markets poured money into the US markets as a flight to quality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 If you've got free advice to share that will keep us all from losing the shirts off our backs, please share. I have a hard time understanding how the US economy will expand in the same way it has once the baby boomers start retiring, eliminating themselves from the work force, adding themselves to the social security and medicare rosters and eliminating themselves from the roles of "hyper consumers". This will have negative impact on economies around the world as the US consumer is (essentially) driving the world and has for nearly a quarter century. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaP'N GRuNGe Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 I have a hard time understanding how the US economy will expand in the same way it has once the baby boomers start retiring, eliminating themselves from the work force, adding themselves to the social security and medicare rosters and eliminating themselves from the roles of "hyper consumers". This will have negative impact on economies around the world as the US consumer is (essentially) driving the world and has for nearly a quarter century. Because the boomer's kids are ultra-hyper consumers? And the illegals..err...guest workers...will unionize and drive up wages and join in the buying frenzy? Because buying on credit and pushing debt into the future is the American way? I do share your concern. It certainly does seem like a house of cards. I guess the best thing to do is reap the rewards as quickly as you can now and then hopefully pull out and into safer investments before the bottom falls out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beaumont Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 The inflationary pressures of increasingly expensive oil are going to blow this market up like a powder keg (in a bad way) ... Oil and gas aint getting cheaper in the long term folks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 I have a hard time understanding how the US economy will expand in the same way it has once the baby boomers start retiring, eliminating themselves from the work force, adding themselves to the social security and medicare rosters and eliminating themselves from the roles of "hyper consumers". This will have negative impact on economies around the world as the US consumer is (essentially) driving the world and has for nearly a quarter century. So, where should we move our money too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T_bone65 Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 A hole full of big frogs? How big are those Frogs? No way they are the size of a small dog Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 If by "climbing out a deep hole" you mean the market has NEVER been higher, then yes, I guess you are right... Let's keep in mind, that nearly every president has the chance to take the market to record highs since the thing trends upward. So based on the chart that muck shared, the DJIA is up a whopping 8% or so since 2000, that is barely more than flat-lining. There is, however "a deep hole" right in the middle of that stretch, that I believe the esteemed Mr. Skins is referring to. Mind you, I'm not typically inclined to put too much emphasis on the governments ability to affect the markets (but I do find it ironic that anyone who likes money would find anything to hate about Clinton since it went up about 300% under his watch). Honestly, I'm happy the markets have corrected and perhaps cutting taxes might have helped. Once again, someone just needs to sell me on the fact that going into massive debt has been offset by a pleasant but hardly whopping up-tick in the DJIA and employment figures. Once again, my heating the house comparison. The house is cold, your wife complains, so you start a bonfire of $20 bills in the living room. She comes in and freaks out about the fact that you're burning money. You answer, "You told me the house was cold. Did I make it warmer or not?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skins Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Bush has no X factor = hole Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 thank you george!!! my wealth continues to grow because of you!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 (edited) So, where should we move our money too? A friend of mine put it thusly ... "when the @#$^ hits the fan, anyone that generates a positive return over the next decade or so will be a rock star" ... I'm a registered investment advisor, and therefore anything I say/type about specific investment advice to anyone on these message boards is a no-no according to the SEC. I'd rather avoid pissing them off. If you (or anyone else) wants to talk, drop me a PM / email, and I'd be happy to take time to discuss via a phone call rather than here on the boards. Heck, I'll even pay for the call. Edited April 26, 2007 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtomicCEO Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 thank you george!!! my wealth continues to grow because of you!! Your inability to read a graph is... well, not surprising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Your inability to read a graph is... well, not surprising. care to explain your reasoning.....i'd like to hear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skins Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 care to explain your reasoning.....i'd like to hear Whats to explain, he pointed out you dont know how to read a graph. What are you an illegal immigrant, dont understand English Senor Doofy? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted April 26, 2007 Share Posted April 26, 2007 Let's keep in mind, that nearly every president has the chance to take the market to record highs since the thing trends upward. So based on the chart that muck shared, the DJIA is up a whopping 8% or so since 2000, that is barely more than flat-lining. There is, however "a deep hole" right in the middle of that stretch, that I believe the esteemed Mr. Skins is referring to. I wonder if just perhaps 9/11 played any role in that at all... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.