sdrewp75 Posted May 11, 2007 Share Posted May 11, 2007 The owners in my league have to determine which three players on their roster they want to keep by May 31st. My team is as follows: QB- Brady, Bulger, Young, Cutler RB- LT, R. Bush, M. Jones-Drew, C. Benson, Cadillac WR- D. Jax, Plax, D. Stallworth TE- A. Gates Def- Cowboys K- Rackers I initially planned to keep LT, Bush, and Gates. But seeing as how Brady has three great weapon in Moss, Stallworth, and Welker, I starting to think I should take him in lieu of Gates. Brady had good numbers last year without crap for support. Wouldn't these off-season moves be an omen of great things to come? Our league is pretty standard with scoring. My league is switching to an eight man keeper league next year. So I'm essentially building the foundation for a dynasty team. I pretty much know who I'm going to keep. I just wanted to get some input from my fellow huddlers to ensure that I haven't lost perspective with all that has gone down in the off-season. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 11, 2007 Share Posted May 11, 2007 You're in a 3 player keeper league and look at your QB corps right now. That ought to tell you that QBs are easy to acquire. I'd also consider keeping Jones-Drew or Benson instead of either Gates or Brady if I were you. Personally, I'd keep Benson, but Jones-Drew is a hot item right now in FF drafts. Maybe you can trade him to someone for a draft pick. Given your QB & RB crews, I'd have to assume that it's a relatively small league? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Holliday Posted May 11, 2007 Share Posted May 11, 2007 I would keep LT,Bush and Gates myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted May 11, 2007 Share Posted May 11, 2007 I'm with BB on this one. No way a QB even comes into consideration. The players to be considered are LT, Bush, Jones-Drew, Benson and Gates. LT is for sure, and probably Bush too. I too prefer Benson at this point (especially if you can start 3 RBs), but arguments can be made for Gates and Jones-Drew. I would solicit offers on everyone but LT, and then based on what you are offered determine what provides you with the best net result by keeping 3 of those players and trading two of them away for picks (or dealing two of them for a keeper upgrade) Maybe you could deal Benson and Jones-Drew to a team for say Steven Jackson (especially if the SJax owner is not deep at RB), etc. Look for deals that will improve your keepers or net you better draft picks (unless you have the #1 pick and definitely want to redraft one of your players), as anyone you have to cut is being thrown back for free, while yo can trade them away and get something, and something is better than nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdrewp75 Posted May 11, 2007 Author Share Posted May 11, 2007 I traded Heap for Brady following our draft last year. Young and Cutler came off of waivers later. I won the league last year so I'll be picking 10th this year. I've already traded away the Bears D for a first round pick. Our league is set up so that any owner can release all of their players and participate in a compensatory draft prior to the official draft. I've tried offering trades for Drew and Benson but nobody is biting. I'm assuming they'll just go after them once the compensatory or official draft starts. What's crazy is that all of your ideas are good and they've all crossed my mind at some point. I'm going with the idea that I just better grab the pick of the litter. If you think about it, our draft really starts in the fourth round. I'm trying to look at it as what players I would take in the first three rounds. I suppose ya'll are right and Brady shouldn't really be considered. Thanks ALOT for the input guys! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennyg71 Posted May 11, 2007 Share Posted May 11, 2007 I've already traded away the Bears D for a first round pick. Why would someone give up a 1st round pick for the Bears D???? I would look hard at keeping Benson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted May 11, 2007 Share Posted May 11, 2007 approach the owners with later picks.... say, 7-9. Explain to them that with all of the teams picking ahead of them, compenstory and all, that there is very little chance of these players falling. THen, realistically take something like a 2nd or 3rd rounder for them (maybe even later if need be). THey are very unlikely to fall to you as it is, may as well keep trying to cash in. If still no one bites, then got with your top 3 and proceed. IF you can start 3 RBs, I'd keep the 3 RBs.... if you can only start 2 RBs, then I'd be hard pressed to not go ahead and keep Gates and forsake the RB depth, as Gates is a big advantage at the TE spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sdrewp75 Posted May 12, 2007 Author Share Posted May 12, 2007 The guy that took the Bears D is a fanatic. I had no intention of keeping them and I knew he'd grab them as soon as he could. I told him that I really wanted to keep them but I'd part for a first round pick. He's not the only guy like that though. Our league manager plans on keeping the Pats D as one of his three keepers. Funny thing is...these guys are all quite savvy. I orchestrated an unusual draft last year and now everybody is making odd moves like these. Go figure... We only start 2 RBs so I guess I'll just heed ya'll's wisdom and keep LT, Bush, and Gates. I like Jones-Drew and Benson but I can't help but believe that Bush has a tremendous future ahead. With the way my fellow owners are currently thinking, I believe this is going to be one of the more unusual drafts I've been a part of. Thanks for the feedback gents. Much appreciated! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyejim Posted May 24, 2007 Share Posted May 24, 2007 The owners in my league have to determine which three players on their roster they want to keep by May 31st. My team is as follows: QB- Brady, Bulger, Young, Cutler RB- LT, R. Bush, M. Jones-Drew, C. Benson, Cadillac WR- D. Jax, Plax, D. Stallworth TE- A. Gates Def- Cowboys K- Rackers I initially planned to keep LT, Bush, and Gates. But seeing as how Brady has three great weapon in Moss, Stallworth, and Welker, I starting to think I should take him in lieu of Gates. Brady had good numbers last year without crap for support. Wouldn't these off-season moves be an omen of great things to come? Our league is pretty standard with scoring. My league is switching to an eight man keeper league next year. So I'm essentially building the foundation for a dynasty team. I pretty much know who I'm going to keep. I just wanted to get some input from my fellow huddlers to ensure that I haven't lost perspective with all that has gone down in the off-season. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyejim Posted May 24, 2007 Share Posted May 24, 2007 Not much thought needed on this one. Keep LT, Bush, and Gates. You'll have no regrets later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polecat Posted May 28, 2007 Share Posted May 28, 2007 LT, Bush, Brady Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soco Posted May 29, 2007 Share Posted May 29, 2007 I also say LT, BUSH, GATES. If you have to start a TE gates is the only sure thing if not keep a third RB ...good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Asskickas Posted May 31, 2007 Share Posted May 31, 2007 (edited) LT, Bush, Brady Just check Brady's #s and increase last year's by about 10% across the board. He is an elite QB along with Carson and Peyton. Heap could be just as serviceable as Gates with the arrival of Mcgahee who'll keep defenses more honest. Witten, Crumpler, Des Clark, Vernon Davis, Kellen Winslow could all have close numbers or even better numbers than Gates. How many QBs will be close to Brady with all those weapons? Benson is still unproven and MJD has to show me 15 tds again to make me a believer. $.02 Edited May 31, 2007 by Asskickas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 31, 2007 Share Posted May 31, 2007 (edited) LT, Bush, Brady Just check Brady's #s and increase last year's by about 10% across the board. He is an elite QB along with Carson and Peyton. Heap could be just as serviceable as Gates with the arrival of Mcgahee who'll keep defenses more honest. Witten, Crumpler, Des Clark, Vernon Davis, Kellen Winslow could all have close numbers or even better numbers than Gates. How many QBs will be close to Brady with all those weapons? I love this kind of patently ridiculous argument. This is advice from someone who has absolutely no clue about player value & takes his position from love of a certain player as well as being completely uneducated about player value within a player's position. Please allow me to debunk this nonsense. IF Brady increases his production by 10% across the board - which would give him the 2nd best season of his career if true - he would still rank at the following position in FF scoring among QBs in the past 4 years: 2006 #5 2005 #4 2004 #8 2003 #5 That means even with a projected 10% increase across the board, Brady at best would have been the 4th best FF QB in the league, and on average would have been around the 5th/6th best FF QB. Gates, on the other hand, has been the best TE since he was named the starter in SD, hands down. Here's Gates FF numbers vs the top 5 TEs at the position every year he's started (the last column is the percent increase in Gates' production over the other 4 TEs): 2006 Antonio Gates SD 146.4 Alge Crumpler ATL 126 16% Tony Gonzalez KC 120 22% Todd Heap BAL 112.5 30% Chris Cooley WAS 109.4 34% 2005 Antonio Gates SD 170.1 Jeremy Shockey NYG 131.1 33% Todd Heap BAL 127.5 42% Chris Cooley WAS 119.4 45% Alge Crumpler ATL 117.7 52% 2004 Antonio Gates SD 174.4 Tony Gonzalez KC 167.8 4% Jason Witten DAL 134 30% Alge Crumpler ATL 113.4 54% Randy McMichael MIA 103.1 69% Gonzalez in '04 has been the only TE who is capable of coming within sniffing distance of Gates' numbers each year. Here's the real crux of the issue, though: How much more scoring do you get with Gates at TE than with Brady at QB? That's what a player's true worth is - what his interval is between his performance and other players at that position. That point differential is how much more you can expect to score over you opponent, and that's what FF is all about. If you take Gates' production each year and then take the differential between his FF performance and the #4 TE that year, you get a point differential that you can subtract from Brady’s FF production increased by 10% and find what the point differential is between Brady and a FF QB position to find Gates’ relative value vs Brady’s. If you do that, you end up with Brady having a point differential of the following FF ranked QB: 2006 #8 2005 #14 2004 #16 That means even with a 10% increase in FF production, Brady’s FF point differential interval between him and lower ranked QBs is much greater than the interval between Gates and the #4 TE. What all that simply means is that Gates has significantly more FF value than Brady does – even projecting a 10% increase across the board for Brady. What Asskickas is stating above is just as simply nonsense. Edited May 31, 2007 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted May 31, 2007 Share Posted May 31, 2007 BB - Couldn't have said it better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 31, 2007 Share Posted May 31, 2007 BB - Couldn't have said it better. Huh. I thought my rebuttal would draw at least a little passion in response... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted May 31, 2007 Share Posted May 31, 2007 (edited) Huh. I thought my rebuttal would draw at least a little passion in response... Let's just say I about typed up the same response, minus taking the time to research the actual numbers, mostly because it is somethng that has been hashed to death over the last two years. Perhpas your evidence and explanation where overwhelming? Edited May 31, 2007 by Big Country Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted May 31, 2007 Share Posted May 31, 2007 Let's just say I about typed up the same response, minus taking the time to research the actual numbers, mostly because it is somethng that has been hashed to death over the last two years. Sorry to steal your thunder, BC. You're as good at the value game as anyone here at this site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted May 31, 2007 Share Posted May 31, 2007 Sorry to steal your thunder, BC. You're as good at the value game as anyone here at this site. Just wait till I get a chance to run the value number again this season. Currently working on the EOS numbers for QBs and RBs that I havent had the chance to do it. SO, if QBs got 6 pts. per TD, would you keep Brady? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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