Phillip Rivers

[Square]

If I do wait to grab a QB in the later rounds and I pick up Rivers. I'll probably not wait too long and grab a #2 not long behind that (maybe a risk/upside like Romo or Leinart if they are stil there). Maybe it is just me, but I tend to do that with QBs and Defenses. If I can't pass up the mid round RBs or WRs...I'll wait for a QB, but I might pick QB, TE, DE, QB, DE, K with my last few rounds. I guess I just see it as hedging my bet.

[rebdog]

Read the whole post, dont just stop reading where you want too.

 

He said, " I see Rivers turning into the next Aikman. Perhaps a bit more mistake prone and a bit more productive in terms of Fantasy production but you'd have to be an idiot to let him air it out with LT in the backfield.

I agree with him, Aikman was a great QB, but wasn't asked to win many games, and Dallas relied on the running game. That is exactly the way I see Rivers, and with Aikman's old OC as HC no doubt. Nice comparison IMO.

 

Check Aikman's career stats. Rivers has already been at least a bit more productive. throwing for 20 TDs is a bit more productive than Aikman.

....and as for people talking about how Norv's QBs don't put up numbers, remember, Marty was his coach in his first year as starter and he still put up numbers.

 

I just don't see putting him behind many QBs outside of Manning, Palmer, Brady, Brees, and Bulger...and maybe Hasselback.

Edited August 9, 2007 by rebdog

[Sgt. Ryan]

Check Aikman's career stats. Rivers has already been at least a bit more productive. throwing for 20 TDs is a bit more productive than Aikman.

....and as for people talking about how Norv's QBs don't put up numbers, remember, Marty was his coach in his first year as starter and he still put up numbers.

 

I just don't see putting him behind many QBs outside of Manning, Palmer, Brady, Brees, and Bulger...and maybe Hasselback.

 

Emmitt didnt catch many balls out of the backfield, LT caught many. That is the difference I see between the 2's stats.

[kingfish247]

Check Aikman's career stats. Rivers has already been at least a bit more productive. throwing for 20 TDs is a bit more productive than Aikman.

....and as for people talking about how Norv's QBs don't put up numbers, remember, Marty was his coach in his first year as starter and he still put up numbers.

 

I just don't see putting him behind many QBs outside of Manning, Palmer, Brady, Brees, and Bulger...and maybe Hasselback.

Aikman's career stats have nothing do with this. Aikman's stats with Norv as his OC do as do the stats of every other QB under Norv.

 

Norv's QB numbers don't lie. Again, I think Rivers can do better than Norv's average but not enough to set him apart from the 7-8 other QBs every season that fall within 3200-3500yds and 17-23 TDs.

 

Just checkout the FF statistics here on the Huddle... there were 9 QBs that averaged 12 FF ppg last season that played in 10+ games. This isn't even counting all the QBs that only averaged 1 or 2 more FF ppg than Rivers.

 

As detlef mentioned above, does it really matter if you have the 7th best FF QB or the 15th best QB? Eli, Hasselbeck, Romo, Pennington, Grossman, Delhomme, Losman... in fairly standard formats, all were pretty much interchangeable last year on a FF ppg basis.

[detlef]

I just don't see putting him behind many QBs outside of Manning, Palmer, Brady, Brees, and Bulger...and maybe Hasselback.

Well you know what, neither do I. It's just that I put pretty much the next 7-10 guys in a hat and really don't much care which one I get. Thus, once those top guys (actually I don't include Hasselback in that group) are gone, I forget about QB. If I end up with Rivers, that's fine. But I'd rather get someone like Leinert at #80 than Rivers at #50. That is really all I'm saying. I actually have Rivers near the top of that next group but it's a group that I'm not really hell bent on getting the best one of the lot.

Edited August 9, 2007 by detlef

[TDFFFreak]

Well let me put it this way. Rivers could easily be the 6th best QB behind Manning, Palmer, Brees, Brady and Bulger and at great value. Young lacks weapons, McNabb is a stud with injury issues and Kitna looks solid but still turns the ball over too much which could hurt depending on your leagues scoring. So all this talk about him being a QB2 is really a joke unless you're playing in a corny 8 team league. I expect improvement and look for the play calling to not only be LT right and LT left. The Bolts can put a lot of points up and a solid rushing game is a QB's best friend so that's not a bad thing. I won't be surprised if he really improves. The more I think about it the more I like this guy to do:

 

3600 passing

27 TDs

13 INT's

 

Pretty solid stuff.....jump on the bandwagon there is still room if you don't get a top 5 QB.

I've been solidly in your camp for a while. I was happy to grab Rivers in the mid 7th round of the HoF Ladder draft. I think he could be the 6th best fantasy QB or the 12th, but I have a hard time seeing him drop any lower than that barring injury.

[Avernus]

This is a run-first/short-pass team. That isn't changing, at least not this year. Love Rivers as a safe QB2 but I would not want him as my QB1.

 

my whole thing is...QB's under Norv don't perform TOO well.....they just do well....it's the RB that you want...

 

I wanted to draft Rivers as my #1....but I don't think I'll be doing that...

[CMac83]

27 TDs?? That would have ranked as the 3rd highest passing TD total last year, ahead of Bulger, Brees, and Brady. Everyone seems to think that the leash will come off Rivers this year. They won 14 games last year with defence and a strong running game - Does it seem like a good idea to go away from that? Even so, the ball is still LT's in the red zone. I don't know how Rivers can be expected to get 24+ TDs this year. Just because he's got a full year of starting experience, it doesn't mean his stats should get a big boost (see: Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich, Eli Manning). Again, a repeat of last year's numbers would be a pretty good season for Rivers.

[BeeR]

As detlef mentioned above, does it really matter if you have the 7th best FF QB or the 15th best QB? Eli, Hasselbeck, Romo, Pennington, Grossman, Delhomme, Losman... in fairly standard formats, all were pretty much interchangeable last year on a FF ppg basis.

Diff. between QB7 and QB15 in our pretty basic/std system last 2 years (granted all TDs are 6) has been 50-60 pts range. LOT of freakin pts. Diff between Eli and Hass: 58 pts. If you think that's "interchangeable," good luck; you'll need it.

 

I think the diff in "upper 2d tier" and "lower 2d tier" (or however you want to word it) QBs is more than a little.

[detlef]

Diff. between QB7 and QB15 in our pretty basic/std system last 2 years (granted all TDs are 6) has been 50-60 pts range. LOT of freakin pts. Diff between Eli and Hass: 58 pts. If you think that's "interchangeable," good luck; you'll need it.

 

I think the diff in "upper 2d tier" and "lower 2d tier" (or however you want to word it) QBs is more than a little.

Well, last I checked, it was early August so we don't actually know who's going to finish 7th and who's going to finish 15th, now do we. Obviously if I had my choice, I would prefer taking the guy who's going to finish 7th. For that matter, I would take all the guys who will end up getting drafted late or not at all and end up top 5. It's just that I've been playing long enough to realize that's a bit too much to ask. So, I lump players together in groups.

 

One guy may say he's quite certain that Rivers will finish better than Leinart or Rothlesburger or Eli or somebody like that. I actually think so as well but not so strongly that I'll reach for him rather then letting one of the others fall to me.

 

So, on August 25th, when I hold my draft, those guys are largely interchangeable. If I end up with any of them as my #1 QB, it will be because I chose to load up on other positions. It will be because there were always players that I though should go a round or two earlier sitting there and I grabbed them. It will be because all the QBs that I think have outstanding shots at getting 25+ TDs were taken before I was ready or able to take them so I wasn't going to be the guy who took the "best" of a batch of players who should all end up with around 20 or so.

 

Then, in December, I'll take your money.