Phillip Rivers

[FishFreak]

The more I think about Rivers and where he is being drafted, he's a must pick. His numbers should improve. I remember the Bolts being very conservative the first 3 games or so last year with him then gradually cut him loose as the season went on. I think he throws 5+ more TD's and 300+ more yardage this year becuase:

 

1) He's more comfortable and has greater command of the offense

2) LT won't repeat last years performance and hog up every TD

3) The young WR's seem ready (Jackson & Davis)

4) D might take a step back (just a hunch)

 

The only negative is Parker getting injured but Rivers will make do.

 

Thoughts???

[NAUgrad]

I would agree with you, but in one of my league's he got picked up at the end of the 2nd round. Too me that's way to high for Rivers. I would love to have a shot at him in the 7th or later as I do think he will improve. He has a funny throwing motion, yes, but he is extremely smart and is a fantastic leader. His numbers will definitely improve.

[Savage Beatings]

Love him... will be a Tier 1 QB next year.

[BeeR]

This is a run-first/short-pass team. That isn't changing, at least not this year. Love Rivers as a safe QB2 but I would not want him as my QB1.

[Sgt. Ryan]

This is a run-first/short-pass team. That isn't changing, at least not this year. Love Rivers as a safe QB2 but I would not want him as my QB1.

 

exactly

[TDFFFreak]

I'm in the Rivers as a top 10 QB camp this year. Smart passer with a lot of outlets for short, quick passes. LT and Gates will help pad the yardage and TD numbers.

Edited August 9, 2007 by TDFFFreak

[Chargerz]

Most rankings I've seen have him at #10. I think that's about right.

[CMac83]

I have him ranked #13 at QB, so he's either a fringe fantasy starter or a great QB2. I don't think there's any way he puts up numbers comparable to the big boys at the position - The Chargers will still be run-heavy this season. Honestly, I think a repeat of last year's numbers would be pretty good for Rivers.

[Wizards]

Rivers will be a caretaker until the Bolts can't get it done with LT and short to mid-range passes to Gates....can anyone stop this fact...?? Until they do Rivers will "NEVER" be more than a back up in FF.

[Bronco Billy]

I agree that Jackson is ready and can stretch the field, but what makes you think Davis is anywhere near ready to start and make a large contribution?

 

I do like Rivers to improve, and the numbers you posted above are a pretty modest expectation.

[detlef]

This is a run-first/short-pass team. That isn't changing, at least not this year. Love Rivers as a safe QB2 but I would not want him as my QB1.

 

 

exactly

Wow, this is a first for me. Got to agree with both of these guys. I see Rivers turning into the next Aikman. Perhaps a bit more mistake prone and a bit more productive in terms of Fantasy production but you'd have to be an idiot to let him air it out with LT in the backfield.

 

Hell, that's how Marty lost the NE game. LT was gaining 5 yards a carry and yet he insisted on trying to throw it anyway. With a lead no less! F'ing idiot.

[Bronco Billy]

Wow, this is a first for me. Got to agree with both of these guys.

 

 

Seek therapy. Quickly.

[detlef]

Wow, this is a first for me. Got to agree with both of these guys.

 

 

 

Seek therapy. Quickly.

Well, I'm still oh-fer agreeing with you on anything so there's still hope for me yet.

[Bronco Billy]

Well, I'm still oh-fer agreeing with you on anything so there's still hope for me yet.

 

 

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news for you:

 

link

 

It's worse than you thought...

[rebdog]

limiting Rivers' value based on the talent around him is idiotic. i agree he won't be up there with the likes of Manning or Palmer, but he definitely can be top 8. LT set the TD record because it was Rivers first year as starter and we focused on the run game. But again, it was his "first" year as starter. Having a great run game just means more scoring opportunities and LT isn't going to average 30 TDs a year.

And look at the numbers. How you could put him behind guys like Leinart and Cutler or Kitna is beyond me. Arizona's gonna try to run much more, Denver always runs, and Detroit QBs have never done anything.

To me, he's a solid, safe pick as a fantasy QB with the potential to put up some big numbers. But that's me, a Charger fan.

[Bronco Billy]

But that's me, a Charger fan.

 

Obviously.

[detlef]

 

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news for you:

 

link

 

It's worse than you thought...

[detlef]

limiting Rivers' value based on the talent around him is idiotic. i agree he won't be up there with the likes of Manning or Palmer, but he definitely can be top 8. LT set the TD record because it was Rivers first year as starter and we focused on the run game. But again, it was his "first" year as starter. Having a great run game just means more scoring opportunities and LT isn't going to average 30 TDs a year.

And look at the numbers. How you could put him behind guys like Leinart and Cutler or Kitna is beyond me. Arizona's gonna try to run much more, Denver always runs, and Detroit QBs have never done anything.

To me, he's a solid, safe pick as a fantasy QB with the potential to put up some big numbers. But that's me, a Charger fan.

I don't think anyone is disputing the fact that he can be top 8, but that is really not all that much upside. I mean, once you get outside the top 5 or 6 they're all pretty much a crap shoot and everyone has serious baggage. Saying that he should out perform the Denver QB (who has never been much of a FF stud since Elway and he was rarely better than solid) or the AZ QB (who's been a perennial tease and needs to do anything just once to merit top flight consideration) or, for that matter the Detroit QB who was a pleasant surprise last year and only happens to be a good option considering the nice combo of good targets and the fact that they're playing from behind constantly, is not the most ringing of endorsements.

 

Now, add the fact that the architect of the Dallas offense that made Aikman an average FF QB is at the helm and has a money RB like he did back then... The safe money simply says that Rivers is not going to light the world on fire.

 

So maybe he finishes 7th, maybe he finishes 15th. There's not really a huge difference there in terms of production. So you end up with Rivers and I end up with, say Eli Manning or Hasslebeck. Can you really make a solid argument for which of us is in much better shape?

 

Don't get me wrong, if you're in a 12 team league and load up on great RBs, WRs, and wait another round or two for QB 'cause #3s in both or a great TE is out there, it certainly wouldn't be the end of the world to go into week one with him as your QB. But I think your homerdom will be showing if you take him inside the top 50-60 or while someone like Bulger is still out there.

[kingfish247]

I see Rivers turning into the next Aikman.

I agree here. An efficient, winning QB but not an outstanding FF QB1.

[rebdog]

I see Rivers turning into the next Aikman.

 

 

Rivers threw for 22 TDs and over 3300 yards in his ROOKIE YEAR.

Aikman threw for 23 TDs and over 3500 yards in his CAREER YEAR. ...and he didn't come close to those TD numbers again.

 

i have much respect for Aikman, but com'on! are we saying its nothing but downhill here for Rivers?

 

and again, all i'm saying is i think Rivers is a safe pick to get minimum 20+ TDs no matter what. he's shown a lot for a young QB. some of these other guys could really struggle if things go a little off for their teams.

[FishFreak]

Well let me put it this way. Rivers could easily be the 6th best QB behind Manning, Palmer, Brees, Brady and Bulger and at great value. Young lacks weapons, McNabb is a stud with injury issues and Kitna looks solid but still turns the ball over too much which could hurt depending on your leagues scoring. So all this talk about him being a QB2 is really a joke unless you're playing in a corny 8 team league. I expect improvement and look for the play calling to not only be LT right and LT left. The Bolts can put a lot of points up and a solid rushing game is a QB's best friend so that's not a bad thing. I won't be surprised if he really improves. The more I think about it the more I like this guy to do:

 

3600 passing

27 TDs

13 INT's

 

Pretty solid stuff.....jump on the bandwagon there is still room if you don't get a top 5 QB.

[Sgt. Ryan]

Rivers threw for 22 TDs and over 3300 yards in his ROOKIE YEAR.

Aikman threw for 23 TDs and over 3500 yards in his CAREER YEAR. ...and he didn't come close to those TD numbers again.

 

i have much respect for Aikman, but com'on! are we saying its nothing but downhill here for Rivers?

 

and again, all i'm saying is i think Rivers is a safe pick to get minimum 20+ TDs no matter what. he's shown a lot for a young QB. some of these other guys could really struggle if things go a little off for their teams.

 

Read the whole post, dont just stop reading where you want too.

 

He said, " I see Rivers turning into the next Aikman. Perhaps a bit more mistake prone and a bit more productive in terms of Fantasy production but you'd have to be an idiot to let him air it out with LT in the backfield.

 

 

I agree with him, Aikman was a great QB, but wasn't asked to win many games, and Dallas relied on the running game. That is exactly the way I see Rivers, and with Aikman's old OC as HC no doubt. Nice comparison IMO.

[kingfish247]

Rivers threw for 22 TDs and over 3300 yards in his ROOKIE YEAR.

Aikman threw for 23 TDs and over 3500 yards in his CAREER YEAR. ...and he didn't come close to those TD numbers again.

 

i have much respect for Aikman, but com'on! are we saying its nothing but downhill here for Rivers?

 

and again, all i'm saying is i think Rivers is a safe pick to get minimum 20+ TDs no matter what. he's shown a lot for a young QB. some of these other guys could really struggle if things go a little off for their teams.

To quote myself in Rivers' Fantasy University thread...

I voted same. Norv is a run first guy. Since 1991 (excluding Shuler's abysmal rookie season) his QBs average ~3100yds/16TDs.

 

While Turner's positive effect on a QB can't be diminished, it doesn't translate to outstanding FF numbers. Of those 15 seasons, his QBs have passed for 20+ TDs five times and 3700+yds 7 times.

 

Is Rivers good enough to play above Turner's average? Absolutely... however his best QBs don't do better than an average of ~3400/22.

 

So 66% of Norv's seasons in the NFL at HC or OC... his QBs don't throw for 20+ TDs. Only 50% of the time did his QBs break 3700 yds.

 

I realize I should qualify this statement... "however his best QBs don't do better than an average of ~3400/22." ~3400/22 is the average of some of the better seasons by a Turner QB. Aside from Brad Johnson's '99 season (4005/24), the 'better' seasons by a Turner QB are right in the ~3400/22 range.

Edited August 9, 2007 by kingfish247

[FishFreak]

To quote myself in Rivers' Fantasy University thread...

 

All good points. I just feel like last year was the least he could have done in a conservative run first offense. This year he improves and his numbers improve a bit as well. Plus the guy throws 60%+ which is a great sign of an elite QB.

[Sturphy]

Aikman was a great QB, but wasn't asked to win many games, and Dallas relied on the running game. That is exactly the way I see Rivers, and with Aikman's old OC as HC no doubt.

 

I agree with this assessment of Rivers.

 

I think Rivers is a winner and has the potential to be a big fantasy scorer, just not with a running game as talented as LT & Co. and a coach who historically hasn't had high scoring fantasy QB's.

 

My 2 cents.