PantherDave Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 I almost recommended this earlier ... but with 11 of us and 1 of him it really wouldn't make the point we want to make. He'd chalk it up to bad luck. The best case scenario would be for one or two of us to get into his league and run away with it (like I know we would). Well, according to him-our draft styles would not make the PO's, so it should not matter if it was just "1" of him....by his own words, the rest of the teams would be mediocre. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwbean Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 My adding the scoring totals for the second 12 would result in absolutley nothing as you have made up your simple mind. There is no point until you can simply admit that under some scoring systems taking Manning makes sense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 My adding the scoring totals for the second 12 would result in absolutley nothing as you have made up your simple mind. There is no point until you can simply admit that under some scoring systems taking Manning makes sense The only scoring system where it makes sense to take Manning 1st overall is one that rewards Manning at twice the rate of any other QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 (edited) There is no point until you can simply admit that under some scoring systems taking Manning makes sense Yep, that's true. But yours ain't it. In a QB only league, I'd pick Manning 1st in a heartbeat. I find it curious that you're so smug & disparaging, yet you won't do something as simple as put forth a little bit of easily obtainable & just as easily posted data. I would think anyone so sure of their position & convinced that everyone else is wrong would gladly produce the data if only to further show what idiots the rest of us are... Edited August 13, 2007 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwbean Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 The only scoring system where it makes sense to take Manning 1st overall is one that rewards Manning at twice the rate of any other QB. Show me a year when the top RB outscored the next RB twofold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 My adding the scoring totals for the second 12 would result in absolutley nothing as you have made up your simple mind. There is no point until you can simply admit that under some scoring systems taking Manning makes sense Have you even read any of my posts? So far, I am the one that has not stated that taking Manning is wrong and I am the one that stated on several occassions that there is certainly occassions where he may well be the #1 pick. I have merely requestd on several occassions the scoring for the top 24 and also the draft results so that a clear argument could be put together for either side based on the actual statistics and the draft tendencies of the league. However, I will stand 100% by my point that it is not the scoring system that is makin Manning the possible #1 pick, in fact your scoring system has very little to do with his value, it is the requirement to start 2 QBs that makes him at least a 1st round pick, and if you would supply the requestd information, arguments could be put together to support or refute him being the #1 pick, but, so far with incomplete information, it is not possible to do that. So, I truly do appreciate you stooping to name calling the one person thus far that has attempted to consider supporting your position and kept the open mind about the possibility of considering Manning with the #1 pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 So, I truly do appreciate you stooping to name calling the one person thus far that has attempted to consider supporting your position and kept the open mind about the possibility of considering Manning with the #1 pick. Suckup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwbean Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 I will try to add the other info by the end of the day. You will see that in our system, WR's are a dime a dozen after the top 3 or 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 Show me a year when the top RB outscored the next RB twofold. Show me a year where the drop off from the top RB to the 24th RB was not much more severe than the drop off from the top QB to the 24th QB . Show me the year that you can readily identify 24 starting RBs that are not in a RBBC ... I can easily point to 24 starting QBs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 I will try to add the other info by the end of the day. You will see that in our system, WR's are a dime a dozen after the top 3 or 4. That's appreciated, believe it or not... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 I will try to add the other info by the end of the day. You will see that in our system, WR's are a dime a dozen after the top 3 or 4. Quarterbacks and kickers are a dime a dozen ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwbean Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Show me the year that you can readily identify 24 starting RBs that are not in a RBBC ... I can easily point to 24 starting QBs RRBC ststus does not always hinder fanatasy results. Did you see what Maron Barber did last year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherDave Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 I will try to add the other info by the end of the day. You will see that in our system, WR's are a dime a dozen after the top 3 or 4. OK...most RB's are ho hum basically Mediocre.....now after the top 4 WR's..the rest are toilet fodder? Do you have any idea how ludicrous that sounds? It seems your league has no need for them, so why not just draft QB's, K's and DT's and be done with it. So, in closing, your league has no value for RB's after say the #6 RB and up and now after the top 4 WR's are gone...the rest are meh, as well. I ask you just to ponder that for just a moment........your doing something that has a hint of FF to it, but it is not FF as we here no it.....hence, and withoutadoubt the biggest example of a Bush League that I have ever seen in my 18 years of FF. Bush man..truly Bush. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 Show me the year that you can readily identify 24 starting RBs that are not in a RBBC ... I can easily point to 24 starting QBs RRBC ststus does not always hinder fanatasy results. Did you see what Maron Barber did last year? It is easy to identify MBIII as wonderful value in a RBBC after the fact. Can you so easily tell me which RB from each of the 32 teams will be the one to have this year? I can tell you which QB that you should have from at least 24 of the teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 (edited) I will try to add the other info by the end of the day. You will see that in our system, WR's are a dime a dozen after the top 3 or 4. Apology accepted. ETA: If your sigline has your lineup reqs, then I'll only need the top 24 WRs as it appears you only start 2. Any flex spot? Edited August 13, 2007 by Big Country Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwbean Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Here you go. LT's points for 2006 and Manning's totals for 2004 need to be adjuted down for an accurate analysis In a typical year, the top QB will score 210 to 250 the top RB will score 185 to 200 the top WR will score 100 to 110 2006 2005 2004 Manning, Peyton QB IND 248 Palmer, Carson QB CIN 218 Manning, Peyton QB IND 339 Brees, Drew QB NO 196 Manning, Peyton QB IND 186 Culpepper, Date QB OAK 297 Palmer, Carson QB CIN 186 Brady, Tom QB NE 180 McNabb, Donovan QB PHI 222 Vick, Michael QB ATL 180 Manning, Eli QB NYG 170 Green, Trent QB MIA 209 Bulger, Marc QB STL 164 Bledsoe, Drew QB DAL 152 Delhomme, Jake QB CAR 202 Kitna, Jon QB DET 156 Hasselbeck, Matt QB SEA 150 Favre, Brett QB GB 202 Brady, Tom QB NE 148 Brees, Drew QB NO 150 Plummer, Jake QB TB 186 Manning, Eli QB NYG 144 Delhomme, Jake QB CAR 150 Brady, Tom QB NE 186 Grossman, Rex QB CHI 138 Collins, Kerry QB TEN 144 Brees, Drew QB NO 174 Rivers, Philip QB SD 134 Favre, Brett QB GB 142 Brooks, Aaron QB OAK 170 Favre, Brett QB GB 132 Brunell, Mark QB WAS 140 Bulger, Marc QB STL 164 Losman, J.P. QB BUF 120 Vick, Michael QB ATL 128 Vick, Michael QB ATL 150 Roethlisberger, Ben 120 Plummer, Jake QB TB 122 Hasselbeck, Matt QB SEA 142 McNabb, Donovan QB PHI 120 Green, Trent QB MIA 122 Collins, Kerry QB TEN 126 Romo, Tony QB DAL 118 Roethlisberger, Ben QB 120 Bledsoe, Drew QB DAL 120 Young, Vince QB TEN 116 Frerotte, Gus QB STL 108 Griese, Brian QB CHI 120 Hasselbeck, Matt QB SEA 110 McNabb, Donovan QB PHI 104 Harrington, Joey QB ATL 116 Smith, Alex QB SF 108 Leftwich, Byron QB JAC 102 Volek, Billy QB SD 114 McNair, Steve QB BAL 102 McNair, Steve QB BAL 102 Palmer, Carson QB CIN 114 Pennington, Chad QB NYJ 102 Carr, David QB CAR 92 Testaverde, Vinny QB NE 110 Delhomme, Jake QB CAR 102 Brooks, Aaron QB OAK 90 Leftwich, Byron QB JAC 110 Carr, David QB CAR 80 Bulger, Marc QB STL 84 Roethlisberger QB PIT 108 Leinart, Matt QB ARI 78 Harrington, Joey QB ATL 72 Pennington, Chad QB NYJ 102 Frye, Charlie QB CLE 78 Boller, Kyle QB BAL 72 Carr, David QB CAR 96 Harrington, Joey QB ATL 76 Johnson, Brad QB DAL 72 Boller, Kyle QB BAL 86 Plummer, Jake QB TB 72 Warner, Kurt QB ARI 68 McCown, Josh QB OAK 80 2006 2005 2004 Tomlinson, LaDainian 267 Johnson, Larry RB KC 195 Alexander, Sh RB SEA 189 Jackson, Steven RB 189 Tomlinson, LaDainian 183 Martin, Curtis RB NYJ 153 Johnson, Larry RB KC 183 Alexander, Shaun RB 154 Tomlinson, LaDainian RB 153 Parker, Willie RB PIT 141 Barber, Tiki RB NYG 137 Dillon, Corey RB NE 149 Gore, Frank RB SF 123 James, Edgerrin RB 129 Barber, Tiki RB NYG 135 Johnson, Rudi RB CIN 117 Portis, Clinton RB 119 Williams, Domanick RB 120 Westbrook, Brian RB PHI 102 Johnson, Rudi RB CIN 117 Johnson, Rudi RB CIN 117 Barber, Tiki RB NYG 99 Jones, Thomas RB NYJ 99 McGahee, Willis RB BAL 114 Barber, Marion RB DAL 96 Dillon, Corey RB NE 78 James, Edgerrin RB ARI 101 Jones-Drew, Maurice 90 Anderson, Mike RB 78 Portis, Clinton RB WAS 93 Lewis, Jamal RB CLE 90 Davis, Stephen RB 72 Green, Ahman RB HOU 90 Henry, Travis RB DEN 80 Williams, Cadillac 72 Holmes, Priest RB KC 90 Dillon, Corey RB NE 78 Dunn, Warrick RB ATL 69 Bettis, Jerome RB PIT 84 Jones, Thomas RB NYJ 72 Jordan, LaMont RB OAK 68 Droughns, Rn RB NYG 84 Taylor, Fred RB JAC 72 McGahee, Willis RB BAL 66 Jones, Kevin RB DET 72 James, Edgerrin RB ARI 72 Parker, Willie RB PIT 66 Johnson, Larry RB KC 66 Taylor, Chester RB MIN 72 Jackson, Steven RB STL 60 Pittman, Michael RB TB 60 McAllister, Deuce RB NO 66 Bettis, Jerome RB PIT 54 Taylor, Fred RB JAC 54 Betts, Ladell RB WAS 66 Bell, Tatum RB DET 48 Westbrook, Brian RB PHI 54 Dunn, Warrick RB ATL 66 Droughns, Ren RB NYG 48 Dunn, Warrick RB ATL 54 Jacobs, Brandon RB NYG 54 Sellers, Mike RB WAS 48 Blaylock, Derrick RB WAS 54 Addai, Joseph RB IND 48 Duckett, T.J. RB DET 48 McAllister, Deuce RB NO 54 Jones, Kevin RB DET 48 Westbrook, Brian RB PHI 44 Duckett, T.J. RB DET 48 Bell, Mike RB DEN 48 Alstott, Mike RB TB 44 Lewis, Jamal RB CLE 42 Bush, Reggie RB NO 48 Gado, Samkon RB HOU 42 Goings, Nick RB CAR 42 Portis, Clinton RB WAS 42 Brown, Chris RB TEN 42 Barlow, Kevan RB PIT 42 Maroney, Laue RB NE 42 Holmes, Priest RB KC 42 Jones, Julius RB DAL 42 Alexander, Sun RB SEA 42 2006 Harrison, Marvin WR IND 117 Owens, Terrell WR DAL 116 Wayne, Reggie WR IND 101 Holt, Torry WR STL 96 Evans, Lee WR BUF 93 Driver, Donald WR GB 93 Smith, Steve WR CAR 90 Williams, Roy WR DET 87 Johnson, Chad WR CIN 87 Johnson, Andre WR HOU 66 Jackson, Darrell WR SF 60 Burress, Plaxico WR NYG 60 Boldin, Anquan WR ARI 60 Brown, Reggie WR PHI 54 Houshmandh, T.J. WR CIN 54 Walker, Javon WR DEN 54 Henry, Chris WR CIN 54 Colston, Marques WR NO 48 Jenkins, Michael WR ATL 42 Galloway, Joey WR TB 42 Booker, Marty WR MIA 40 Jackson, Vincent WR SD 38 Moss, Santana WR WAS 38 Glenn, Terry WR DAL 36 Edwards, Braylon WR CLE 36 Berrian, Bernard WR CHI 36 Furrey, Mike WR DET 36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 Do you have the previous two years data on the WRs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwbean Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Do you have the previous two years data on the WRs? Yes, it looks just like 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 Yes, it looks just like 2006 Will you please post it so that I can do the 3 year averages please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwbean Posted August 13, 2007 Author Share Posted August 13, 2007 Will you please post it so that I can do the 3 year averages please. Harrison, Marvin WR IND 117 Smith, Steve WR CAR 114 Owens, Terrell WR DAL 120 Owens, Terrell WR DAL 116 Harrison, Marvin WR IND 108 Walker, Javon WR DEN 117 Wayne, Reggie WR IND 101 Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI 105 Horn, Joe WR ATL 113 Holt, Torry WR STL 96 Galloway, Joey WR TB 105 Bennett, Drew WR STL 108 Evans, Lee WR BUF 93 Holt, Torry WR STL 99 Wayne, Reggie WR IND 108 Driver, Donald WR GB 93 Johnson, Chad WR CIN 99 Holt, Torry WR STL 105 Smith, Steve WR CAR 90 Moss, Santana WR WAS 99 Driver, Donald WR GB 92 Williams, Roy WR DET 87 Boldin, Anquan WR ARI 89 Harrison, Marvin WR IND 90 Johnson, Chad WR CIN 87 Glenn, Terry WR DAL 84 Johnson, Chad WR CIN 90 Johnson, Andre WR HOU 66 Burress, Plaxico WR NYG 78 Bruce, Isaac WR STL 81 Jackson, Darrell WR SF 60 Chambers, Chris WR MIA 66 Jackson, Darrell WR SF 80 Burress, Plaxico WR NYG 60 Ward, Hines WR PIT 66 Moss, Randy WR NE 78 Boldin, Anquan WR ARI 60 Driver, Donald WR GB 66 Smith, Rod WR DEN 78 Brown, Reggie WR PHI 54 Jurevicius, Joe WR CLE 60 Clayton, Michael WR TB 78 Houshmandh, T.J. WR CIN 54 McCardell, K WR HOU 54 Mason, Derrick WR BAL 78 Walker, Javon WR DEN 54 Houshmaeh, T.J. WR CIN 48 Johnson, Andre WR HOU 72 Henry, Chris WR CIN 54 Williams, Roy WR DET 48 Stokley, Brandon WR DEN 60 Colston, Marques WR NO 48 Moss, Randy WR NE 48 Burleson, Nate WR SEA 56 Jenkins, Michael WR ATL 42 Toomer, Amani WR NYG 42 Evans, Lee WR BUF 54 Galloway, Joey WR TB 42 Stallworth, Donte' WR NE 42 Porter, Jerry WR OAK 54 Booker, Marty WR MIA 40 Wilford, Ernest WR JAC 42 Kennison, Eddie WR KC 50 Jackson, Vincent WR SD 38 Evans, Lee WR BUF 42 Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI 48 Moss, Santana WR WAS 38 Curtis, Kevin WR PHI 42 Robinson, Marcus WR DET 48 Glenn, Terry WR DAL 36 Johnson, Keyshawn WR CAR 38 Williams, Roy WR DET 48 Edwards, Braylon WR CLE 36 Smith, Rod WR DEN 36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 Okay, as it seems everyone is agreed in throwing out the 3 outlier performances (Culpepper and Manning in 2005 and LT in 2006), here are the value numbers with those 3 performances taken out. Name Value QB1 152 RB1 148 RB2 130 QB2 120 QB3 112 QB4 107 RB3 106 RB4 93 QB5 90 QB6 87 RB5 84 QB7 80 QB8 78 WR1 76 WR2 73 QB9 72 RB6 71 RB7 68 WR3 65 QB10 65 WR4 62 QB11 61 RB8 60 WR5 59 WR6 58 WR7 53 QB12 48 WR8 48 RB9 47 WR9 46 RB10 44 QB13 44 QB14 44 QB15 41 RB11 38 RB12 37 QB16 36 WR10 34 QB17 32 RB13 32 RB14 32 QB18 30 QB19 28 WR11 28 RB15 27 WR12 27 WR13 27 RB16 25 QB20 24 WR14 23 QB21 21 WR15 21 RB17 19 WR16 17 RB18 15 RB19 13 WR17 13 QB22 10 WR18 10 RB20 9 RB21 7 RB22 7 WR19 5 WR20 5 RB23 4 WR21 3 QB23 2 WR22 2 WR23 2 QB24 0 RB24 0 WR24 0 As we can see the 3 year average value for the number 1 QB and number one RB are very close with a slight edge to the top scoring QB. But, let's look at the potential teams one could draft given the "normal" first two round averages of 15 QBs, 8 RBs and 1 WR. (Of course, this implies the hugh assumption that the player we draft performs at their drafted level, ie the 5th RB taken performs as the 5th RB, etc.) If we take Manning at #1 as QB1, we are looking at a value of 152 points. Assuming the draft follows the stated trend, we'd be considering QB16 (value of 36 points), RB 8 (value of 48 points) or WR2 (value of 73 points). Without knowing the trend of rounds 3 and 4, but assuming it is more RB heavy as many teams have grabbed 2 QBs, we are then looking at a substantial loss of value by skipping WR here (even if only 8 WRs go in the 3rd/4th we lose almost 30 value points) lose about the same for RB points if 10 more RBs go but only lose 16 value points if 4-5 more QBs go, so, clearly value based approach would dictate that we go at least WR/RB in the 2nd/3rd, if not WR/WR to maximize overall team value. (RB 9 to RB 20 is only a 38 point drop). Max value points utilizing this method for the first three rounds is QB/WR/WR with a total of 152+73+65=290. Min value is QB/QB/RB with a total of 152+36+48=236. Note that the later QBs (20 or so) hold their value against the low teen (13-15) WRs and the late teen (16-18) RBs.. showing that waiting on them is not a bad idea valuewise. Now, let's see what we have if we go LT. Value is 148. Following stated trends we again are looking at the same options as above. Again WR/WR is the right choice for maximum value as the run on QBs is leaving players like Steve Smith, Chad Johnson and Torry Holt, etc. there for us. QBs are relatively flat at this point, so, as above, waiting is a better option than taking one as the difference of the top two QBs available now (36+32=68) is less than the top WR available, and, even taking the 23rd and 24th QBs (2+0=2, a diffeence of 66 points) is less of a difference tha ntaking the #2 and #3 WRs (73+65=138) vs taking the 13 and 14 WRs (27+23=50, a difference of 88 points). I think the numbers show that a strategy of going LT, WR, WR, RB, QB, QB will maximize the value of the team vs. going Manning, WR,WR, RB, RB, QB and definitely is a lot more effective than going Manning, QB, RB as I believe the OP stated was his draft strategy. Please feel free to dissect where I may have misinterpreted values. I obviously had to make assumption as to the trends of the 3rd and 4th rounds, but, with the first two being so QB heavy it can be fairly safely assumed that RBs are heavier in the 3rd and 4th rounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qball86 Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 1.03 - LT2.10 - Steven Jackson 3.03 - Steve Smith 4.10 - Marvin Harrison or TO or Holt + 2 mediocre QBs That team would have swept your league dude. This team would need a lot of luck just to make the playoffs. The team that took Manning #1 last year set a new single season scoring record. It's hard to argue bad logic with actual results Because I assume most would take Marvin at 4.10, thats 70 TOTAL TDs or an average of 5 a week from 4 guys! If you other yahoos can't see how bad this team would struggle I want my membership fees back. I thought this website was for people that knew what they were doing. ...once again proving the whole "bush-league" theory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 Because I assume most would take Marvin at 4.10, thats 70 TOTAL TDs or an average of 5 a week from 4 guys! If you other yahoos can't see how bad this team would struggle I want my membership fees back. I thought this website was for people that knew what they were doing. ...once again proving the whole "bush-league" theory. He said that team wouldn't make the playoffs in his league He must be practicing some form of "new math" that I am unaware of ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherDave Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 The proof is in the #'s, his "point system" works because the rest of the Lemmie League does the same flawed drafting, and they think it's due to their"scoring"-wrong, it's totally in the way the teams are drafted and nothing else. Just do an experiment this season JJ, keep track of the aforementioned team, the one that would not make the PO's. Compare the #'s when the PO teams are set, and I can assure you"that team' would have made it-most likey the #1 seed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwbean Posted August 14, 2007 Author Share Posted August 14, 2007 Before I see "the Light", you will have to enlighten me on the calculations used to arrive at the value by position Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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