Picked Parker over Addai at #7

[Asskickas]

Starting Lineup

QB: Jon Kitna

RB1: Willie Parker

RB2: Travis Henry

WR1: Reggie Wayne

WR2: Lee Evans

TE: Benjamin Watson

WR/RB: Thomas Jones

K: Neil Rackers

Def: Jacksonville

 

Bench

Ahman Green

Jerious Norwood

Mark Clayton

Julius Jones

Jerry Porter

Jeff Garcia

Najeh Davenport

 

Std scoring.....I am not sure I should be as upset about this as I am. If the Steelers line holds Parker should have a very big year...One main reason is Parker will be in the game on 3rd down...which is something Bill C never would have done. That is 30% more playin time and he will be used more in the passing game.

What do you think of the roster and the choice? I feel pretty strong in the flex position with T Jones, A Green, and Norwood.

 

Addai will also be a 3rd down back and also catch more passes especially with the Colts D being depleted. In a ppr/keeper I like Addai more. I don't think you can compare Edge's best years with what Addai can or can't do. (Terrell Davis was a 6th round pick who had similar rookie #s to Addai so there's know way to know Addai's ceiling at this time.) However in a standard redraft I like Willie because the Steeleres D will cause him to run down the clock late in games where Peyton may be forced to air it out with Reggie and Marvin.

[TDCumm1608]

My 2 cents about your post:

 

You suggest that we should use Edge's stats to project Addai's ceiling but you don't take into consideration that James was not a good goal-line back even though he played behind a great line. Between 2002 and 2006, James converted only 31.6% of his goal-line rushes (30 TDs in 95 attempts). You can't assume that Addai will be as bad.

 

I'm not sure why Parker would be the safest pick when Addai plays with a better line, a better passing game and a better QB. He also got more receptions than Parker last season even though he didn't start any games.

 

 

I agree with your points - there are many ways to look at the situation. I wasn't aware of James' poor conversion rate on the goal-line (in fact off the top of my head I couldn't say what a good conversion rate is). I attributed James' comparatively low TD numbers versus his yardage totals to Manning's willingness to throw the ball on the goal-line versus the average QB. Manning leads the NFL over the last 3 seasons in red zone (not sure if there are readily available #'s on goal-line passing stats) pass attempts, completions, yards, and TDs - of course much of this could just be because the Colts had a great offense and found the red-zone more often, but you can't totally discount the Colts ability to throw the ball near the goal-line.

 

My reference to Parker being a safer pick than Addai was only based upon extrapolating their past performance to this season's results. Essentially I need to make a much more aggressive projection with Addai (compared to past results) versus a conservative estimate for Parker to put them on an equal level.

 

Of course as you pointed out this is only part of the picture - I'll be actively watching how the Addai/Parker results pan out over the season, and can only hope my thinking led me to the right choice...

[Swashbucklers]

Agreed. There's a happy camper out there that got Addai at #8. He went next right?

 

I was a happy camper to get Addai at #8, but now, after reading this, I don't feel as good (but I am still happy that I got Addai). I would have been content with FWP because I was planning on taking him at 8.

 

Wow, I wish I had had that choice. I had to settle for Ronnie Brown at 1.07

 

And I got Ronnie Brown in the second round in my 12 team local.

[TDCumm1608]

Where would you rank Addai?

 

I like Parker better too but maybe not as much as you. Just be interested as to where you have Addai in your rankings.

 

 

This particular league was not ppr and beyond that everything was standard. I made my selection at #5. LT, Jackson, Gore, and LJ were off the board. I did most of my research on Addai, Parker, Westbrook, and Alexander for this selection. I ended up going with Parker, but had Addai ranked just below followed by Alexander. As I said I am conservative, so I really liked that Parker (and Addai) were young and did not have the history with injuries that Alexander and Westbrook did. Honestly, you probably can't really go wrong with any of these backs (barring injury), I simply was hoping to reduce my chance of a first round bust and didn't feel I was losing much, if any, upside by selecting Parker.

[SuperBalla]

I :heart: Addai

[MPetro]

1. (7) Willie Parker RB

2. (14) Travis Henry RB

3. (27) Reggie Wayne WR

4. (34) Lee Evans WR

5. (47) Thomas Jones RB

6. (54) Jon Kitna QB

7. (67) Ahman Green RB

8. (74) Jerious Norwood RB

9. (87) Mark Clayton WR

10. (94) Julius Jones RB

11. (107) Jerry Porter WR

12. (114) Jacksonville DEF

13. (127) Benjamin Watson TE

14. (134) Neil Rackers K

15. (147) Jeff Garcia QB

16. (154) Najeh Davenport RB

 

Here you go Cardinal! I never expected to grab Henry on the turn. I wanted Bush or Henry but figured neither would be there. So I am happy. The absolute steal to me was T Jones in the 5th...It was real strange the guys at the draft were thowing out complements to each other over value picks and steals, but not a word was said about my Jones pick up. I am not a huge fan of Jones but the value was too great. I hope I have enough RB depth into the season to trade up in QB if necesary.

For a 10 team league I kinda feel this is a week team ... no TD punch anywhere. Unless of course it's a performance only league (no TD's)?

[Donutrun Jellies]

The Parker analysis is fascinating -- thanks for putting it together. I passed on parker at 1.9 to take Rudi -- only to get Parker on the wrap around (in a 12-teamer!!) at 2.4 ... If Addai had been there at 1.9, I'd have taken Addai (I've imbibed of the Indy solo-back koolaid) -- but I was thrilled to get Parker later ... though I passed on Westbrook twice and that may haunt me.

[Grimm74]

For a 10 team league I kinda feel this is a week team ... no TD punch anywhere. Unless of course it's a performance only league (no TD's)?

Outside of LT and S Jax what punch? LJ had 17 parker had 16. All other positions match up pretty well to a repective players TD production. Can you enlighten me a bit more?

[SLGRAF]

The Parker analysis is fascinating -- thanks for putting it together. I passed on parker at 1.9 to take Rudi -- only to get Parker on the wrap around (in a 12-teamer!!) at 2.4 ... If Addai had been there at 1.9, I'd have taken Addai (I've imbibed of the Indy solo-back koolaid) -- but I was thrilled to get Parker later ... though I passed on Westbrook twice and that may haunt me.

 

 

 

In other words, BOTH Parker and Westbrook lasted until the 16th overall pick? That is ridiculous.

[Brutus]

You must have been drafting with pre-schoolers to have assembled that team in a 10 team league. That's the only explanation. You will be tough to beat.