Picked Parker over Addai at #7

[Grimm74]

Starting Lineup

QB: Jon Kitna

RB1: Willie Parker

RB2: Travis Henry

WR1: Reggie Wayne

WR2: Lee Evans

TE: Benjamin Watson

WR/RB: Thomas Jones

K: Neil Rackers

Def: Jacksonville

 

Bench

Ahman Green

Jerious Norwood

Mark Clayton

Julius Jones

Jerry Porter

Jeff Garcia

Najeh Davenport

 

Std scoring.....I am not sure I should be as upset about this as I am. If the Steelers line holds Parker should have a very big year...One main reason is Parker will be in the game on 3rd down...which is something Bill C never would have done. That is 30% more playin time and he will be used more in the passing game.

 

What do you think of the roster and the choice? I feel pretty strong in the flex position with T Jones, A Green, and Norwood.

[SLGRAF]

I like your team overall, but would like it more with Addai at RB1.

[irish]

I like your team overall, but would like it more with Addai at RB1.

 

Agreed. There's a happy camper out there that got Addai at #8. He went next right?

 

Hey but don't feel too bad though as overall you have a ridiculously sweet team.

Edited August 22, 2007 by irish

[Grimm74]

Ten team league. Felt good about the draft but that pick. Yes, Addai went 8th. I said at the draft to the 8th guy "here is a gift" and then picked Parker.....Still love Parkers upside this year I just think (afterwards) that Addai would have been safer. Hopefully haveing T Jones as flex will make up for it.

[Clubfoothead]

I like Parker better myself. Not by much. I'm in the minority probably.

[CardinalEmpire.com]

Grimm, can you give me your order of selections? This may be a template for my draft in a couple of weeks. I like your team a lot, especially the WR's and 3-deep RB's. You're taking a gamble on a Kitna/Garcia combo, but Kitna could turn into Kurt Warner with all those weapons in Detroit.

[cre8tiff]

Wow, I wish I had had that choice. I had to settle for Ronnie Brown at 1.07

[Grimm74]

1. (7) Willie Parker RB

2. (14) Travis Henry RB

3. (27) Reggie Wayne WR

4. (34) Lee Evans WR

5. (47) Thomas Jones RB

6. (54) Jon Kitna QB

7. (67) Ahman Green RB

8. (74) Jerious Norwood RB

9. (87) Mark Clayton WR

10. (94) Julius Jones RB

11. (107) Jerry Porter WR

12. (114) Jacksonville DEF

13. (127) Benjamin Watson TE

14. (134) Neil Rackers K

15. (147) Jeff Garcia QB

16. (154) Najeh Davenport RB

 

Here you go Cardinal! I never expected to grab Henry on the turn. I wanted Bush or Henry but figured neither would be there. So I am happy. The absolute steal to me was T Jones in the 5th...It was real strange the guys at the draft were thowing out complements to each other over value picks and steals, but not a word was said about my Jones pick up. I am not a huge fan of Jones but the value was too great. I hope I have enough RB depth into the season to trade up in QB if necesary.

[Grimm74]

Oh yeah Cardinal just in case you havent noticed 5 of my first 6 picks have a bye in week 6....haha I kind of like getting them all done at once.

[Chief Dick]

How did the first 6 go?

[Grimm74]

Cheif,

 

1. LT

2. s Jax

3. LJ

4. SA

5. Gore

6. P Manning Suprised the heck out of me.

7. Paker

8. Addai

9. West

10 Maroney

11. Bush

[Chief Dick]

Was wondering who got snuck in there. I'm picking 4th on Saturday, so I'll be choosing between Gore and LJ and Addai. It will definitely be one of those three, and leaning towards Addai. If Gore is available, it's Gore.

[TDCumm1608]

I had the same Addai/Parker scenario and chose Parker. Here was my reasoning copied directly from an email between my buddies and I after they were giving me a hard time for going with Parker (hence the anti-Addai tone)...

 

So first I'd like to dispel this whole Addai "upside potential" thing that is flying around. Last season Addai scored ~188 points (1406 yds, 8 TDs). Going into his second year now without Rhodes in the backfield I can see where the upside potential is sexy. So what is his upside? Well, I'd say the absolute cap is looking back at Edgerin James' greatest seasons - in 2004 James had 2000 yards, in 2003 James had 13 TDs - his combined 2 best statistical years as a Colt. If we had the ability to combine career stats from 2 different years, James' best "year" would have netted ~281 points. So, unless you are willing to say Addai in his second year will score more points than Edgerin James' combined best statistical season (TDs from 2003 and yards from 2004) we can fairly cap Addai's potential at 281 points... not to shabby. Assuming his floor is an aggressive 20% above last season's totals, Addai should score 220-280 points this year.

 

So, lets get to "meh" Willie Parker. Like Addai, Parker is young - coming into his 4th season, the actual peak year for an NFL runningback. Parker has been consistently increasing production the last 2 seasons - I have no reason to believe this consistency won't continue this season, especially with a healthy Big Ben in the lineup from week 1. Last year Parker scored ~268 points (1716 yards, 16tds). Let's say we make a conservative bet here and don't really forecast Fast Willie to do better - I'll put him within a 5% +/- range of last year... According to a consistent season, FWP should score 255-280 points.

 

Once we take the "sexy" perception out of the way and get down to pure facts we see, a very conservative/consistent estimation for Fast Willie is 255-280 points; and a "upside potential" to Edgerin James' combined best seasons for Addai puts him on a wide range of 220 - 280 points.

 

So tell me, how does Addai make one team great, but Fast Willie make the other team "meh"? If Addai can have the greatest season in Colts' RB history, he falls in where Fast Willie should finish if he stays pace with his past #'s.... just doesn't make sense, how one could value Addai more than Willie Parker... I'd liken it to choosing an investment... If you have a choice between two stocks, and both have a maximum return of 10%, but one has a "risk-factor" of -25% and the other -10%, why would you choose the more risky investment if it can't realistically give you a greater return? Just doesn't make sense gentlemen.

[Chief Dick]

I had the same Addai/Parker scenario and chose Parker. Here was my reasoning copied directly from an email between my buddies and I after they were giving me a hard time for going with Parker (hence the anti-Addai tone)...

 

So first I'd like to dispel this whole Addai "upside potential" thing that is flying around. Last season Addai scored ~188 points (1406 yds, 8 TDs). Going into his second year now without Rhodes in the backfield I can see where the upside potential is sexy. So what is his upside? Well, I'd say the absolute cap is looking back at Edgerin James' greatest seasons - in 2004 James had 2000 yards, in 2003 James had 13 TDs - his combined 2 best statistical years as a Colt. If we had the ability to combine career stats from 2 different years, James' best "year" would have netted ~281 points. So, unless you are willing to say Addai in his second year will score more points than Edgerin James' combined best statistical season (TDs from 2003 and yards from 2004) we can fairly cap Addai's potential at 281 points... not to shabby. Assuming his floor is an aggressive 20% above last season's totals, Addai should score 220-280 points this year.

 

So, lets get to "meh" Willie Parker. Like Addai, Parker is young - coming into his 4th season, the actual peak year for an NFL runningback. Parker has been consistently increasing production the last 2 seasons - I have no reason to believe this consistency won't continue this season, especially with a healthy Big Ben in the lineup from week 1. Last year Parker scored ~268 points (1716 yards, 16tds). Let's say we make a conservative bet here and don't really forecast Fast Willie to do better - I'll put him within a 5% +/- range of last year... According to a consistent season, FWP should score 255-280 points.

 

Once we take the "sexy" perception out of the way and get down to pure facts we see, a very conservative/consistent estimation for Fast Willie is 255-280 points; and a "upside potential" to Edgerin James' combined best seasons for Addai puts him on a wide range of 220 - 280 points.

 

So tell me, how does Addai make one team great, but Fast Willie make the other team "meh"? If Addai can have the greatest season in Colts' RB history, he falls in where Fast Willie should finish if he stays pace with his past #'s.... just doesn't make sense, how one could value Addai more than Willie Parker... I'd liken it to choosing an investment... If you have a choice between two stocks, and both have a maximum return of 10%, but one has a "risk-factor" of -25% and the other -10%, why would you choose the more risky investment if it can't realistically give you a greater return? Just doesn't make sense gentlemen.

 

This is how you post, bitc.hes

 

Edited August 22, 2007 by Chief Dick

[magagnon]

Solid team but I don't like Garcia as a backup to Kitna. He's 37 doesnt have much upside. I like Kitna this year but you have to back him up with a solid #2 because he will get beat up...

 

I love Julius Jones with the 10th pick.. good value.

Edited August 22, 2007 by magagnon

[CardinalEmpire.com]

I need to stop reading this board. You guys make too damn much sense sometimes.

 

Can I get a stock analysis on Rudi Johnson, too?

[clickclack]

I had the same Addai/Parker scenario and chose Parker. Here was my reasoning copied directly from an email between my buddies and I after they were giving me a hard time for going with Parker (hence the anti-Addai tone)...

 

So first I'd like to dispel this whole Addai "upside potential" thing that is flying around. Last season Addai scored ~188 points (1406 yds, 8 TDs). Going into his second year now without Rhodes in the backfield I can see where the upside potential is sexy. So what is his upside? Well, I'd say the absolute cap is looking back at Edgerin James' greatest seasons - in 2004 James had 2000 yards, in 2003 James had 13 TDs - his combined 2 best statistical years as a Colt. If we had the ability to combine career stats from 2 different years, James' best "year" would have netted ~281 points. So, unless you are willing to say Addai in his second year will score more points than Edgerin James' combined best statistical season (TDs from 2003 and yards from 2004) we can fairly cap Addai's potential at 281 points... not to shabby. Assuming his floor is an aggressive 20% above last season's totals, Addai should score 220-280 points this year.

 

So, lets get to "meh" Willie Parker. Like Addai, Parker is young - coming into his 4th season, the actual peak year for an NFL runningback. Parker has been consistently increasing production the last 2 seasons - I have no reason to believe this consistency won't continue this season, especially with a healthy Big Ben in the lineup from week 1. Last year Parker scored ~268 points (1716 yards, 16tds). Let's say we make a conservative bet here and don't really forecast Fast Willie to do better - I'll put him within a 5% +/- range of last year... According to a consistent season, FWP should score 255-280 points.

 

Once we take the "sexy" perception out of the way and get down to pure facts we see, a very conservative/consistent estimation for Fast Willie is 255-280 points; and a "upside potential" to Edgerin James' combined best seasons for Addai puts him on a wide range of 220 - 280 points.

 

So tell me, how does Addai make one team great, but Fast Willie make the other team "meh"? If Addai can have the greatest season in Colts' RB history, he falls in where Fast Willie should finish if he stays pace with his past #'s.... just doesn't make sense, how one could value Addai more than Willie Parker... I'd liken it to choosing an investment... If you have a choice between two stocks, and both have a maximum return of 10%, but one has a "risk-factor" of -25% and the other -10%, why would you choose the more risky investment if it can't realistically give you a greater return? Just doesn't make sense gentlemen.

 

What else you got bro? You should take the place of Matt Berry

[SLGRAF]

This thread is making me seriously rethink my strategy picking 7th. I think it is likely that LT, SJax, Gore, LJ, Alexander, and Addai will be picked before me, leaving a choice between Parker and Westbrook. Since it is a non-PPR league, I was leaning towards FWP, but now am all over his jock.

[cre8tiff]

I had the same Addai/Parker scenario and chose Parker. Here was my reasoning copied directly from an email between my buddies and I after they were giving me a hard time for going with Parker (hence the anti-Addai tone)...

 

So first I'd like to dispel this whole Addai "upside potential" thing that is flying around. Last season Addai scored ~188 points (1406 yds, 8 TDs). Going into his second year now without Rhodes in the backfield I can see where the upside potential is sexy. So what is his upside? Well, I'd say the absolute cap is looking back at Edgerin James' greatest seasons - in 2004 James had 2000 yards, in 2003 James had 13 TDs - his combined 2 best statistical years as a Colt. If we had the ability to combine career stats from 2 different years, James' best "year" would have netted ~281 points. So, unless you are willing to say Addai in his second year will score more points than Edgerin James' combined best statistical season (TDs from 2003 and yards from 2004) we can fairly cap Addai's potential at 281 points... not to shabby. Assuming his floor is an aggressive 20% above last season's totals, Addai should score 220-280 points this year.

 

So, lets get to "meh" Willie Parker. Like Addai, Parker is young - coming into his 4th season, the actual peak year for an NFL runningback. Parker has been consistently increasing production the last 2 seasons - I have no reason to believe this consistency won't continue this season, especially with a healthy Big Ben in the lineup from week 1. Last year Parker scored ~268 points (1716 yards, 16tds). Let's say we make a conservative bet here and don't really forecast Fast Willie to do better - I'll put him within a 5% +/- range of last year... According to a consistent season, FWP should score 255-280 points.

 

Once we take the "sexy" perception out of the way and get down to pure facts we see, a very conservative/consistent estimation for Fast Willie is 255-280 points; and a "upside potential" to Edgerin James' combined best seasons for Addai puts him on a wide range of 220 - 280 points.

 

So tell me, how does Addai make one team great, but Fast Willie make the other team "meh"? If Addai can have the greatest season in Colts' RB history, he falls in where Fast Willie should finish if he stays pace with his past #'s.... just doesn't make sense, how one could value Addai more than Willie Parker... I'd liken it to choosing an investment... If you have a choice between two stocks, and both have a maximum return of 10%, but one has a "risk-factor" of -25% and the other -10%, why would you choose the more risky investment if it can't realistically give you a greater return? Just doesn't make sense gentlemen.

 

Wow, a diamond in a pool of momo sh!ts.

[Grimm74]

This thread is making me seriously rethink my strategy picking 7th. I think it is likely that LT, SJax, Gore, LJ, Alexander, and Addai will be picked before me, leaving a choice between Parker and Westbrook. Since it is a non-PPR league, I was leaning towards FWP, but now am all over his jock.

 

I tell you what I really like about him is that he is playing 3rd downs. Last years stats were all on 1st and 2nd down. Bruce Adrians their OC stated they wanted to keep him on the field as much as they possible can and involve him more in the passing game.

[TDCumm1608]

This thread is making me seriously rethink my strategy picking 7th. I think it is likely that LT, SJax, Gore, LJ, Alexander, and Addai will be picked before me, leaving a choice between Parker and Westbrook. Since it is a non-PPR league, I was leaning towards FWP, but now am all over his jock.

 

haha... I make no guarantees on results, but given the information we have now I was just questioning how close Addai and Parker actually are. Yes, Addai might end up equal or slightly better than FWP if he has a knockout season, but with your first round selection is the added risk of selecting Addai worth the small marginal upside he may have over Parker? I decided no, but I am a conservative person. I also believe one of the primary mistakes people make is getting caught up in the hype of a player versus what can be realistically expected.

[magagnon]

So tell me, how does Addai make one team great, but Fast Willie make the other team "meh"? If Addai can have the greatest season in Colts' RB history, he falls in where Fast Willie should finish if he stays pace with his past #'s.... just doesn't make sense, how one could value Addai more than Willie Parker... I'd liken it to choosing an investment... If you have a choice between two stocks, and both have a maximum return of 10%, but one has a "risk-factor" of -25% and the other -10%, why would you choose the more risky investment if it can't realistically give you a greater return? Just doesn't make sense gentlemen.

 

My 2 cents about your post:

 

You suggest that we should use Edge's stats to project Addai's ceiling but you don't take into consideration that James was not a good goal-line back even though he played behind a great line. Between 2002 and 2006, James converted only 31.6% of his goal-line rushes (30 TDs in 95 attempts). You can't assume that Addai will be as bad.

 

I'm not sure why Parker would be the safest pick when Addai plays with a better line, a better passing game and a better QB. He also got more receptions than Parker last season even though he didn't start any games.

[Clubfoothead]

haha... I make no guarantees on results, but given the information we have now I was just questioning how close Addai and Parker actually are. Yes, Addai might end up equal or slightly better than FWP if he has a knockout season, but with your first round selection is the added risk of selecting Addai worth the small marginal upside he may have over Parker? I decided no, but I am a conservative person. I also believe one of the primary mistakes people make is getting caught up in the hype of a player versus what can be realistically expected.

 

Where would you rank Addai?

 

I like Parker better too but maybe not as much as you. Just be interested as to where you have Addai in your rankings.

[TheBadaBing]

i think that i would have gone with addia, but you cant go wrong taking parker. at that spot it is a win win who ever you get

[joethin]

Nice argument backed up with stats! Made go look at my draft choice of Westbrook over Parker in a PPR League. In that one League Westbrook outscored Parker 386 vs 320 I'm good now.

 

On another note, I was on the Addai bandwagon for the upside potential, your post however makes me revisit my position.