Siberia Posted December 2, 2007 Share Posted December 2, 2007 I think the NYG/CHI total has gone way down as well. Was like 42 or 41 and now is 38 but some of the off-shore books have it at 39/39.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted December 2, 2007 Share Posted December 2, 2007 Root Perfect Play: Raiders Billionaire: Cardinals Insider Circle: Titans No Limit: Chiefs Millionaire: Lions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 2, 2007 Share Posted December 2, 2007 another sunday that I am not really loving anything..I am leaning towards the Jags + 6.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 2, 2007 Share Posted December 2, 2007 I put a small play on the Jags + 6.5 and this tease Select #1 : NFL Football for Game Houston Texans/Tennessee Titans 12/2/2007 1:00:01 PM - (EST) Total Points UNDER 50½ for Game Select #2 : NFL Football for Game New York Jets/Miami Dolphins 12/2/2007 1:00:01 PM - (EST) Total Points UNDER 47 for Game Select #3 : NFL Football for Game Tampa Bay Buccaneers/New Orleans Saints 12/2/2007 4:15:01 PM - (EST) Total Points UNDER 51½ for Game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 2, 2007 Author Share Posted December 2, 2007 Root's Chairman is Carolina Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 2, 2007 Author Share Posted December 2, 2007 These guys are solid: LVTR's picks are Minnnesota -3, Tampa Bay +4, Indy -6, and Philly -3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted December 2, 2007 Share Posted December 2, 2007 These guys are solid: LVTR's picks are Minnnesota -3, Tampa Bay +4, Indy -6, and Philly -3 TB concerns me, think I'll hold off until we know more about Garcia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trots Posted December 2, 2007 Share Posted December 2, 2007 TB concerns me, think I'll hold off until we know more about Garcia. Garcia is the 3rd QB today. McCown to start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted December 3, 2007 Share Posted December 3, 2007 (edited) Congrats TB bettors, I didn't have the guts. Well, not such a good day for me, down a little but not a lot. M'eh, didn't like the card a lot, should of been more wise. Now, to the thrust of this post: McAlister is probably out. No Heap, no Pryce, no Williams...the spread on NE/BAL is 19 points. True, Boller and the Ravens play much better at home. However, this is a team of Highly-paid stars and nobodies; when the going gets tough, the tough tend to take the season off (read Ray Lewis). The spread is -19 NEP. If I had to bet this game, I'd go with NEP. I've already teased this game to -9, but I might take it at -19. Frankly, I think it might go a bit lower. This just in, the Ravens are awful, and they have nothing to play for. The Pats looked bored, and sure, they did just barely win, but it was almost as if they were just passing time. I'd lay the Pats for a small play. Edited December 3, 2007 by Gdawg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 3, 2007 Author Share Posted December 3, 2007 TB, adding Budin's Ten/Hou Under, liked Min until I saw Lang had it, reversing Mia and taking NYJ, reversing Oak and taking Den. TB, NYJ, Den and Ten/Hou Under That's it for now... Not that great a day for me, either Gdawg. 2-2 in personal plays, and 1-0 leans on Min. Feeling bad for tailing Budin on that Ten/Hou under, when I already had the Pit/Cin under 48 so didn't need to tail him there. And should have listened to my system telling me to take Oak, which I did earlier in the week, only to reverse the play on Sunday morning. Including leans, 3-2 on personal "posted" plays and my system was slightly below avg on the week, so all in all, a week where I didn't get paid but didn't lose, either. As for tonight, the thing to be concerned about is the wind. Here is a graphic that will stay up to date: http://icons.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xne_ws_anim.gif For tonight, they are predicting winds of 22-25 mph during the game, gusts could be higher. I think that is why you are seeing the spread and total drop. I already have a system play in on the Under and have that at under 51.5. O/U now is at 47.5/48. I guess they are thinking the wind might interfere w/ Brady's downfield game. Balt struggles to run the ball (about avg in the league), and if they don't get any big plays in the passing game, they are in for a long night. NE allows 4.1 ypr, which isn't great. However teams don't run as much because they get down early. In addition, I think that ypr may be inflated when teams run in situations when NE is playing more of a prevent defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 3, 2007 Author Share Posted December 3, 2007 Just saw Lang make some picks on TV: Picks Buf +6 over Was - but thinks Was wins by a FG WIN Picks Indy -6.5 over Jac - thinks they win by DD and dominate LOSS Picks Cle +1 over Ari - thinks Cle wins LOSS Picks NE/Bal Under 51 - is scared to pick a side because he's not sure where the 20.5 is going. Thinks it may move, like the game vs. Phi which started NE-17 and went up to -25. (Lang is so idiotic) PENDING His "2 for the Money" play is Phi -3 over Sea LOSS This guy is funny... So 2 of the plays are the same as was on the Dennis Miller show. Funny part is GB was his strongest play, and now that that one lost, his strongest play is Philly. He'll keep going down the list until he gets one right... Counting his earlier top play of GB, he went 1-4 so far in his "free picks" that he spouted on shows, including 0-3 on the Dennis Miller Show. As far as to paying clients, he also went 1-4, but on different games. Won Min for 30 dimes, Lost Ind and Phi for 25 dimes each Lost Cle and Cin for 15 dimes each. That's minus 50 dimes minus juice on the day. All told this week looking at everything, he went 2-5 ATS w/ the Bal/NE Under 51 pending. Another fine week for Lang. Sportsbooks are financing him nicely, time his clients wised up... I wish the damn public would wise up. Avg Joes who hear him on the radio one week giving picks, and then they play a few and lose their paychecks. Get the word out and shows like Dennis Miller and others will get a new guy. Unless Lang pays them to appear on their show, and is being financed by the sportsbooks. Thats the only scenario where I can see him still getting appearances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted December 3, 2007 Share Posted December 3, 2007 (edited) http://icons.wunderground.com/data/640x480/2xne_ws_anim.gif For tonight, they are predicting winds of 22-25 mph during the game, gusts could be higher. I think that is why you are seeing the spread and total drop. I already have a system play in on the Under and have that at under 51.5. O/U now is at 47.5/48. I guess they are thinking the wind might interfere w/ Brady's downfield game. Balt struggles to run the ball (about avg in the league), and if they don't get any big plays in the passing game, they are in for a long night. NE allows 4.1 ypr, which isn't great. However teams don't run as much because they get down early. In addition, I think that ypr may be inflated when teams run in situations when NE is playing more of a prevent defense. Yeah Dre, I agree. No play on the side is wise, given the conditions. It is already windy here and it is supposed to be quite bad tonight, gusts as high as 50 MPH around game time. I do have NE -9 as part of a teaser, hopefully that will pull through for me. Edited December 3, 2007 by Gdawg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted December 3, 2007 Share Posted December 3, 2007 Bad bad in whompland yesterday..Jags + 6.5 was my only hit..Lost my tease I listed in a previous post and lost Chi over 19 in the 4 oclock games..i thought I was going to at least push that one..Idiot from Chicago loads up and kicks a giant D lineman and costs them 15 yards when they were inside the 10 ..Had to settle for a fg when a TD was in reach..The td would have given me the win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted December 3, 2007 Share Posted December 3, 2007 Bad bad in whompland yesterday..Jags + 6.5 was my only hit..Lost my tease I listed in a previous post and lost Chi over 19 in the 4 oclock games..i thought I was going to at least push that one..Idiot from Chicago loads up and kicks a giant D lineman and costs them 15 yards when they were inside the 10 ..Had to settle for a fg when a TD was in reach..The td would have given me the win Sorry to hear Whomp, hope it wasn't too bad for you. I amanged to salvage part of my day with hits on the NYG/CHI under and the CIN/PIT under, but still not the best day for me. Too bad, I had a GREAT day Saturday and was hoping to keep things rolling On to something positive...any hockey tonight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 3, 2007 Author Share Posted December 3, 2007 Yeah Dre, I agree. No play on the side is wise, given the conditions. It is already windy here and it is supposed to be quite bad tonight, gusts as high as 50 MPH around game time. I do have NE -9 as part of a teaser, hopefully that will pull through for me. What do you know about the winds inside the stadium? I know the stadium is aligned along a WNW axis. Endzones at about 10 and 4. The wind looks like it will be blowing from 10 directly to 4 out of the WNW. So the question is, how much will make it down to the field level, given the fact it's a traditional closed bowl stadium? Do you recall if it swirls or if in previous games w/ wind you've heard/seen problems? I'm already in at U51.5 as part of my system play, just trying to get as much info on the play as I can. I would highly doubt NE would win by less than 9, you are probably in good shape there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 3, 2007 Author Share Posted December 3, 2007 LOSER LANG update: YESTERDAY 1-4 for -58 dimes LAST WEEK (11/26/07 thru 12/2/07): -244.5 dimes LAST 41 DAYS: -256.5 dimes LAST 129 DAYS: -359.5 dimes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 3, 2007 Author Share Posted December 3, 2007 On to something positive...any hockey tonight? From what I've seen posted (not the record, just this comment), There is no one better than Ben Burns in NHL. Tonight he's got the Islanders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted December 3, 2007 Share Posted December 3, 2007 (edited) What do you know about the winds inside the stadium? I know the stadium is aligned along a WNW axis. Endzones at about 10 and 4. The wind looks like it will be blowing from 10 directly to 4 out of the WNW. So the question is, how much will make it down to the field level, given the fact it's a traditional closed bowl stadium? Do you recall if it swirls or if in previous games w/ wind you've heard/seen problems? I'm already in at U51.5 as part of my system play, just trying to get as much info on the play as I can. I would highly doubt NE would win by less than 9, you are probably in good shape there. Dre, it's difficult to say. The staduim is not completely closed, take a look: http://www.stadiumsofnfl.com/afc/M&TBankStadium.htm I attended the Notre Dame/Navy game last year, the winds for that game were along the same lines of what we are experiencing here right now. I had pretty good seats along the 30 yard line, lower level; distinctly remember the winds pushing straight down through the notches (end zones) of the staduim. The team going into the wind was very limited with regard to passing and kicking. So, depending on the wind direction, yes it could have a dramatic impact on the game, especially if the wind direction matches that of the stadium. Edited December 3, 2007 by Gdawg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted December 3, 2007 Share Posted December 3, 2007 From what I've seen posted (not the record, just this comment), There is no one better than Ben Burns in NHL. Tonight he's got the Islanders. Burns is the man on hockey, no doubt about that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted December 3, 2007 Share Posted December 3, 2007 What do you know about the winds inside the stadium? I know the stadium is aligned along a WNW axis. Endzones at about 10 and 4. The wind looks like it will be blowing from 10 directly to 4 out of the WNW. So the question is, how much will make it down to the field level, given the fact it's a traditional closed bowl stadium? Do you recall if it swirls or if in previous games w/ wind you've heard/seen problems? I'm already in at U51.5 as part of my system play, just trying to get as much info on the play as I can. I would highly doubt NE would win by less than 9, you are probably in good shape there. Im in on the under as well, I agree its a great play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CowboysDiehard Posted December 3, 2007 Share Posted December 3, 2007 what did you get for the under? i'm trying to decide on 47 right now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted December 3, 2007 Share Posted December 3, 2007 what did you get for the under? i'm trying to decide on 47 right now... Keeps dropping, started at 51.5... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted December 3, 2007 Author Share Posted December 3, 2007 47 is a tough one. First of all, I've seen some people talking about the weather games we've seen in Pittsburgh the last 2 weeks. This is not like that at all. It won't be raining and the field will be in tip top shape. Even last night's game, you could see although the field was better, it still affected the game in a big way. Slowed pass rushes from both sides, running game was tougher because holes were not there and getting started in the mud is more difficult, and the 1st quarter for Ben and the 2nd half for Palmer were tough for throwing the ball. This game all we are talking about is wind. I put in Under 51.5 on Tuesday morning, when I ran my system. I've seen it as low as 46.5 some places now. Really, we need to see the conditions during warmups. If you are talking about going for an under, the time is now as more than likely it will drop a bit more. But do I like 47? I really can see NE driving to an early lead and I really do think the winds will die down some later in the game. By that point, maybe Bal can add a TD or 2. The other thing to consider is that weather can sometimes add points. Teams won't be going for FGs, so it becomes a TD game. Many more 4th down attempts from the 30-40 yard line. Which, if you make it, could result eventually in 7 vs. 3 points. Similarly, if you miss it, the other team now has great field position. Just some things to consider. I have a feeling that unlike last night, if the total keeps dropping like a rock, you may see the game go over what you could get closer to gametime. Last night, even if you took the under at kick, you still won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted December 3, 2007 Share Posted December 3, 2007 (edited) another sunday that I am not really loving anything..I am leaning towards the Jags + 6.5 that was my best play of the week and i fudged it by pairing it with the Patriots and Skins...... ...the skins ...I seriously thought they would put it to the Bills Edited December 3, 2007 by Avernus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted December 3, 2007 Share Posted December 3, 2007 ...the skins ...I seriously thought they would put it to the Bills You weren't the only one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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