Week 15 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Gdawg]

Thanks for posting the plays guys, good stuff as always

 

I am not certain about playing the total, but I am going with HOU.

 

Good luck tonight boys! Let's go get 'em.

[Gdawg]

Lang is on HOU tonight

[rattsass]

I didn't hear that....

[Gdawg]

I didn't hear that....

 

Me either

[Trots]

Lang is on HOU tonight

damn......

[darin3]

My book has Den -2 and 47.5 as the o/u. The over has hit in 5 of the last 5 Bronco games. I like the over, and took Denver. They SHOULD escape with a 4, maybe 3 point win. Maybe by a TD. I think the 31-24 call is just about right.

[xMRogers]

Buddy of mine is on fire in NCAAB and loves Miami +6

 

I'm on Denver -2 tonight real light

 

Question - if all the touts lined up one side of a game, what woud you do (I mean really just about all of them - say 20 to 2 on one side). I'm pretty sure I'd say "something must be going on, and they should know more about the inside stuff, so I'll roll with it" but I'm not sure

[Gdawg]

Question - if all the touts lined up one side of a game, what woud you do (I mean really just about all of them - say 20 to 2 on one side). I'm pretty sure I'd say "something must be going on, and they should know more about the inside stuff, so I'll roll with it" but I'm not sure

 

IMHO, it really depends. For example, if 19 touts were on one side of a college bball game and Ferringo was on the other side, I'd take Ferringo's pick every time...and sometimes have

[Steeltown Dre]

The one thing I realized last night after the game: when I ran my system early in the week, the line was Hou -1.5. My system said Hou -4.5, but those 3 points were not enough to "trigger" a system play. I didn't think much of this game in terms of a side, but I also typically don't "re-update" my system w/ current lines. Therefore, I should have realized but did not, that once the line moved to Den -1.5 and Den -2, that it should have triggered a "wrong team favored" play.

 

I make all my system plays usually around Tuesday early AM, and at that time the line was Hou -1.5, so I didn't have a reason to make (or post) the "wrong team favored" play.

 

I am in a pickem league for a decent year end pot (and in first place) and picked Hou last night. Well, congrats anyways to the Hou backers, even though I didn't realize to take them once the line shifted, but I am glad to start the week off on a good note w/ a Under win last night.

 

As for following touts, usually the only time I straight up tail a tout is if he's red hot. But 99% of the time, I make sure what I am thinking lines up w/ a "hot tout" play, and then will take it.

 

But as for the situation when "all the touts are on the same side" - that usually is a very strong warning. But last night, that was not the case. Here is an update to the list I posted earlier:

 

 

Burns NFL__________________________________________TEXANS (-3 or better)Cappers Access __________________Comp 1_________________________TexansMighty ! Quinn___________________________________________Texans (pickem)MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK NEWSLETTER____________Houston Over Denver By 3LT's  Lock Of The Day_____________The LOCK__________________The Texans +1Jeff Benton_____________________15 Dime____________TEXANS plus the pointsANDY ISKOE NEWSLETTER______Best of the Rest______HOUSTON - 1 over DenverDrew Gordon___________________300,000♦_________________________TexansJohn Ryan_______________________________________________Houston TexansWAYNE ROOT________________Chairman___________________________TexansSteven Budin________________25 DIME PLAY_______________HOUSTON TEXANSLVTR______________________________________________HOUSTON +1.5 (NFL) kelso FB____________________10 units_________________________Houston +2Tony K - PICKS PALS____________________________________HOUSTON TEXANSLarry Ness__________________Weekly wipeout_____________________HoustonNick Parsons__________________AFC Blowout GOY__________________HoustonREAL ANIMAL___________________3*_______________________Houston +2 1/2SEA BASS______________________10_____________________________TEXANSSport Game and Time Money Play____100*_____________________Houston +1.5 Insider Sports Report________________3*__________Houston +1 Range +3 to -1Brandon Lang____________________15 DIME_______________________TEXANSlem banker______________________________________________houston texansOC DOOLEY___________________COMP 1 UNIT____________________Texans +2ron Raymond________________________________________Houston Texans +2.5Score____________________________200_________________________HoustonIndianCowboy_____________________3 units______________Houston Texans +2David Page_____________________________________Houston Texans +1 (+115)special k______________________comp________________HOUSTON TEXANS +2Executive_______________________250_________________________HOU +2.5Public Fade____________________________________________________TEXANSCokin_________________________________________________________houstoSports Rumble_________________________________________________TexansPointwise__________________________________________Denver 31 Houston 24Michael Cannon______________40 Dime__________________________BRONCOSTHEERODFATHER OF SPORTS________15 UNITS ___________________DENVER-1  Sports Brokers Play________________Triple_________________________DenverRainman_______________________Regular Play______________________DenverWinners Edge__________________3 units_________________Denver Broncos -1North Star______________________Best Bet____________________DENVER  1.5MIKE LINEBACK____________________4*____________________Denver BroncosNelly Sportsline__________________________________________Denver BroncosWinning Points_________________________________________________BroncosMatt Rivers__________________50,000♦____________________________BroncosKendall Holiday_____________NFL Game of the Month___________Denver BroncosATS LOCK_________________4_______________________________Denver -1 ½Black Magic Sports________5 Unit BEST BET________________________Denver -1Smart Money Syndicate__________1*___________________________Denver -1.5CJ Wagers_____________________3*_______________________ Denver BroncosDr. Bob__________________________________________________Denver (-1.5)Frank Rosenthal__________________SB+________________________BRONCOS-1 Vegas Hotsheet_________________________________________________Den -1WILL SYKE's______________comp______________________________Broncos -1Charlies Sports Members Section_______30*_______________________Denver-1  Wolkosky Milan__________________10*______________________BRONCOS -2½Phenom______________________________________________________DenverPPP/ Gavazzi_______________________1%__________________________DenverSpreitzer___________________Thursday Night Hammer_______________DenverARTHUR RALPH_________________________________________Denver BroncosVegas Experts____________________________________________________OverDave Cokin______________________comp____________________________OverJeff Benton_____________________10 Dime:____________Texans-Broncos OVERThe Gold Sheet EXTRA!!!_Technical Plays of the Week____DENVER-HOUSTON “Over”ANDY ISKOE NEWSLETTER______Best of the NFL Total________________ OVER 47Tout House comp_______________________________________________ Over 47REAL ANIMAL___________________3*______________________Houston OVER 47Tom Stryker________Thursday Night Total of the Year______OVER (47) Houst/DenPhil Steele-NORTHCOAST_______Marque Play__________OVER 47 Houston/DenverWolkosky Milan__________________10*__________________DEN/HOU OVER 47½10* Totals Club__________________2*____________________________OVERATS FINANCIAL____________________3_____________________Over 47 DenverThe Lock Line___________________________________OVER Houston/Denver 47King Creole_________________________2**_______________________OVERSmart Money Syndicate__________1*________________Denver/Houston OVER 47Kodiak__________________________10________________________Den over 47Frank Rosenthal__________________SB____________________________OVER 47IndianCowboy_____________________3 units_____________________Over 47.5Neri Sports_______________________2*________________Over Houston/DenverTHEERODFATHER OF SPORTS________15 UNITS _________________UNDER 47.5The Scout_______________________comp__________Denver/Houston under 47½Maddux Sports____________________2 star_________________hou/den under 48Jim Rich______________________________________________ Texans Under (47Kevin O'Neil (the Max)_______________________________Under DENVER/HOUSTTHE MAXX / Kevin O'Neill________________________________________ under 47Lovell__________________________20*_________________under 47.5 Hous/DenCharlies Sports Members Section_______500*_______________________Under 47 Discount Sports Picks________________5*_________Denver/Houston UNDER 47.5Maddux Sports___________________3 units_________Denver/Houston Under 47.Sport Game and Time Money Play_____75*________________________UNDER 47Rainman_______________________Regular Play______________________UnderAntonwins______________________1 unit______________under denver/houston

 

 

As you can see, there were touts on both sides. I like to check opinions of Root's Chairmans play, LVTR, Budin, Lovell, Sebastian, and CTO's 10 and 11*s from the Gold Sheet. That's for the NFL. Those are the guys I think are solid, and look at their plays, but even then, don't "tail" blindly except on occasion.

 

Most of the other guys are jokes, and there are some good fades around too. The thing to watch out for is if there is a game you are leaning to, and there are a bunch of stiffs on it, then watch out... but if Root's Chairman, LVTR, Sebass and Budin all line up on a play, that is fine w/ me...

Edited December 14, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[Gdawg]

Dre, I know MIA is a system play for you, are you going to play it?

 

BAL @ MIA, man what a mess. With regard to BAL, it looks like right now Rolle is out, so BAL will be starting TWO backup CBs again. Oh, and there's a flu bug going around; Suggs hasn't practiced all week, they are hoping he will play. No Heap, as usual.

 

I'd say MIA is the play, but man they are SO bad.

 

Looks like there's a 70% chain of rain/T-storms, could be something of an equalizer. The Ravens are notoriously bad in rainy weather.

 

Any thoughts?

[Steeltown Dre]

Dre, I know MIA is a system play for you, are you going to play it?

 

BAL @ MIA, man what a mess. With regard to BAL, it looks like right now Rolle is out, so BAL will be starting TWO backup CBs again. Oh, and there's a flu bug going around; Suggs hasn't practiced all week, they are hoping he will play. No Heap, as usual.

 

I'd say MIA is the play, but man they are SO bad.

 

Looks like there's a 70% chain of rain/T-storms, could be something of an equalizer. The Ravens are notoriously bad in rainy weather.

 

Any thoughts?

 

Gdawg - I always take all of my system plays unless I post otherwise. So currently I do have a play on Mia+3.5. I certainly have no faith in them, and don't see how Ray Lewis would allow his D to travel back to his college town and let Mia to get their only W of the season. But, it's a play and so I made it.

 

As for the big weather games, earlier today w/ two different locals, I was able to lay some OK money on the Unders that I got at slightly better than market:

 

Buf/Cle U 42.5

NE/NYJ U 46

Pit/Jac U 37

 

I hope to go at least 2-1 on those games. (I really liked Pit/Jac over if the weather was fine. I really liked it. But this weather, no way)

 

NE/NYJ has already fallen about 10 points from 52 to 42 at some places. I wish I took the unders even earlier in the week, but I got some decent lines pretty early today, and the lines fell throughout the day. Look for more to fall tomorrow.

[rattsass]

Gdawg - I always take all of my system plays unless I post otherwise. So currently I do have a play on Mia+3.5. I certainly have no faith in them, and don't see how Ray Lewis would allow his D to travel back to his college town and let Mia to get their only W of the season. But, it's a play and so I made it.

 

Aside from the fact that you have it as a system play, the Dolphins despite their record have been within 3 in about half of their games if I am not mistaken. Taking 3.5 at home against a downtrodden team like the Ravens makes perfect sense.

 

I won't do it because I don't want to jinx or profit from the Dolphins blowing their perfect season, but I certainly understand why you would make that play.

 

I hope the Dolphins cover for you.

 

I hit real well on Thursday night and still have couple of nice parlays and teasers in play from that game as well. Good luck to all.

[Gdawg]

Gdawg - I always take all of my system plays unless I post otherwise. So currently I do have a play on Mia+3.5. I certainly have no faith in them, and don't see how Ray Lewis would allow his D to travel back to his college town and let Mia to get their only W of the season. But, it's a play and so I made it.

 

As for the big weather games, earlier today w/ two different locals, I was able to lay some OK money on the Unders that I got at slightly better than market:

 

Buf/Cle U 42.5

NE/NYJ U 46

Pit/Jac U 37

 

I hope to go at least 2-1 on those games. (I really liked Pit/Jac over if the weather was fine. I really liked it. But this weather, no way)

 

NE/NYJ has already fallen about 10 points from 52 to 42 at some places. I wish I took the unders even earlier in the week, but I got some decent lines pretty early today, and the lines fell throughout the day. Look for more to fall tomorrow.

 

 

I know you go with your system plays Dre, which is commendable; you've developed a system that works, clearly! I also know that once in a while you'll lay one or two off, just thought this might be such a case.

 

As I mentioned, the Ravens are as banged up as ever, there's a flu bug running through the team, and there's always the weather. MIA might just have a shot at winning. I know my team, but this one does make me nervous; really want to lay MIA.

 

Good work on the weather games. I did lay WAS/NYG U38 and NYJ/NEP U48, I'm liking those. Incidentaly NYJ/NEP is now 42 at my site as well. WAS/NYG now down to 36.

Edited December 15, 2007 by Gdawg

[Gdawg]

Aside from the fact that you have it as a system play, the Dolphins despite their record have been within 3 in about half of their games if I am not mistaken. Taking 3.5 at home against a downtrodden team like the Ravens makes perfect sense.

 

I won't do it because I don't want to jinx or profit from the Dolphins blowing their perfect season, but I certainly understand why you would make that play.

 

I hope the Dolphins cover for you.

 

I hit real well on Thursday night and still have couple of nice parlays and teasers in play from that game as well. Good luck to all.

 

 

Good work Ratt, did you tease the Texans and the total? Almost did it myself, got cold feet at the last moment

 

We need some college bball games, this week has bored the pants off of me.

[rattsass]

Good work Ratt, did you tease the Texans and the total? Almost did it myself, got cold feet at the last moment

 

We need some college bball games, this week has bored the pants off of me.

 

Yeah I did the side and total on Thursday, have Cin -3 /O36 for tonight and the final piece of the puzzle is Jets +30.

 

The parlay I hit Thrusday was Hou / Under / and the Miami +6 BB game.

 

With the line heading south on that last game I might hedge for a middle if the two hit tonight.

 

Also riding a pretty big parlay with Hou +3.5 (won), GB-, Jax+3.5, Minn-.

[Gdawg]

I'm liking the picks Ratt, good luck!

[Gdawg]

Lang is on CIN today, just a heads up...5 Dime play.

[Steeltown Dre]

Good stuff ratt.

 

I know these are NFL forums, but when there are hot cappers and we've got a thread here, I'll post:

 

CTO

 

CTO record for baskets .there week ended last night. (10-4)

4-1.....11*

6-3.....10*

 

 

week 1.....5-1

2-0 ........11*

3-1..........10

 

week 2...5-3

2-1 ...11*

3-2......10*

 

 

 

10* MEMPHIS over Middle Tennessee State (at Nashville)....After barely surviving in 62-58 OT victory vs. Southern Cal in previous game, doubt

 

rested Memphis (off since Dec. 4) shows much mercy vs. overmatched, run & gun MTS quintet it destroyed 86-46 year ago. Tigers

 

spectacular 6-4 true frosh PG Rose (16 pg, 4 apg, 6 rpg) already has NBA scouts salivating. And envision Calipari’s deep, relentless bench

 

extending margin vs. Blue Raider squad quickly dispatched in its only other games vs. quality foes (trailed Tennessee & Houston by combined

 

59 pts. by H!) Payback doesn’t work. MEMPHIS 95 - Middle Tennessee State 60 RATING - 10

 

 

 

11* UTAH over Missouri State...After hardly slowing anyone down (50% FGs, ranked 322nd LY!) in LY’s disastrous 11-19 campaign, Utah’s

 

demanding 1st-year mentor Jim Boylen (Coach Izzo disciple) has Utes finally focused on defense, while going more uptempo (with set plays)

 

on other end (hitting 50% FGs). That formula should work vs. still-evolving MS missing the leadership & shooting prowess of LY’s top 3 leading

 

scorers, as Bears have committed 44 TOs and are only 6 of 40 from arc in both road games vs. major foes thru Dec. 10. And watch Utes agile

 

7-1, 275 C Nevill (14 ppg, 8 rpg) hurt State’s foul-prone 6-9 C Richards in paint. *UTAH 76 - Missouri State 60 RATING - 11

[Steeltown Dre]

Fade Alert:

 

Mighty ! Quinn ( 6-15 L 21 )

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Bengals -9

[Steeltown Dre]

Another hot capper:

 

NESS 10-2 HIS LAST 12 "LEGEND" PLAYS ( 24*'S )

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

My 24* is on South Alabama at 8:20 ET. Rick Stansbury's Miss St team has shown VERY little so far this season. In a November tourney in Anaheim, the Bulldogs lost two of three (lost to Sou Ill and Mia-0 while beating Cal-Irvine). Overall, the Bulldogs have opened 5-4, beating no one of consequence, while losing home games to Clemson and Miami-Florida (both are unbeaten). Do-everything guard Gordon (18.3-6.3-3.9) and the 6-9 Rhodes (15.2-7.1) are the team's best players but Stansbury hasn't gotten much out of any other player. Also, Gordon controls the ball and he's one of those "shoot-first" guys. South Alabama is one of those "under the radar" teams from a non-descript conference (Sun Belt). However, the Jaguars can play. The perimeter game is led by two seniors, Bennett (18.1-5.8) and PG Merritt (12.9-3.0-4.7) plus sophomore Tilford (15.4). Two 6-7 players, Davis (10.2-5.7) and Coleman (6.1-6.6) plus the 6-9 Douglas (6.1-5.0) will offer an excellent challenge to Rhodes inside, whose only help comes from the 6-9 Vanardo (5.2-7.7), who at 6-9 is considered 'soft!' South Alabama was at the same Anaheim tourney Miss St played in (also went 2-1, losing to Mia-O) plus has shown some early season toughness away from home against two SEC teams. The Jaguars lost at Ole Miss and at Vandy (both teams are still unbeaten) this year, each time by just three points. Now they get a mediocre SEC at home, where the Jags are a perfect 4-0. Better yet, they'll remember LY's 84-46 loss at Starkville, the worst beating the team took all season. I also believe that easy win for Miss St will give the Bulldogs a "false sense of security" for this one. Expect the Jags to win handily! 24* on South Alabama.

Edited December 15, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

Brandon Lang has a 5 dimer on the Bengals tonight

 

5 Dime - Bengals

 

Welcome to the 2007 season Cincy D, your offensive teammates have missed you all season. As it turns out, you've been here all along and you're final showing your face. This is a defense known for having more holes then Swiss cheese, but most recently, Cincy has won three of its last five by allowing just one team to gain more than 300 yards. And over this stretch, the defense is allowing only 262 yards of offense per game, while roughly 13 points per game the past three outings. Shaun Hill makes his first NFL start tonight, and he'll be introduced to Cincy's rejuvenated stop unit, as will the rushing game, which I expect to take some of the pressure off Hill. In the meantime, balancing things out on the other side will be an offense that we all know is capable of lighting up the scoreboard, and is long overdue for a blowout. Carson Palmer will be taking aim for his 100th career TD pass, and will get a balanced attack from Rudi Johnson, who has picked up his game as well. This is a pure blowout in the making, as we take the Bengals.

Edited December 15, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[rattsass]

Brandon Lang has a 5 dimer on the Bengals tonight

 

5 Dime - Bengals

 

Welcome to the 2007 season Cincy D, your offensive teammates have missed you all season. As it turns out, you've been here all along and you're final showing your face. This is a defense known for having more holes then Swiss cheese, but most recently, Cincy has won three of its last five by allowing just one team to gain more than 300 yards. And over this stretch, the defense is allowing only 262 yards of offense per game, while roughly 13 points per game the past three outings. Shaun Hill makes his first NFL start tonight, and he'll be introduced to Cincy's rejuvenated stop unit, as will the rushing game, which I expect to take some of the pressure off Hill. In the meantime, balancing things out on the other side will be an offense that we all know is capable of lighting up the scoreboard, and is long overdue for a blowout. Carson Palmer will be taking aim for his 100th career TD pass, and will get a balanced attack from Rudi Johnson, who has picked up his game as well. This is a pure blowout in the making, as we take the Bengals.

 

Well, that is enough to put me off that game. Lang is a lot more optimistic than I am. I took the -3 with the teaser, and I'm not exactly doing cartwheels over that. This is exactly the kind of game the Bengals could blow. I don't think they will, but I wouldn't feel too comfy laying 9-10 points.

[Steeltown Dre]

WAYNE ROOT

 

Chairman - Bengals

Millionaire - Purdue

Money Maker - New Mexico

No Limit - Central Mich

Insider Circle - UAB

 

Chairman NFL is 18-9 on the year

Perfect Play is 4-3 on the year

Insider's Circle is 6-5 on the year

Billionare Club is 7-6 on the year

 

This is why I say follow his Chairman if you want to follow one of them. But I saw this elsewhere and don't really agree w/ it:

 

Chairman - for the gotta have action every day guys

Millionaire - same

Money Maker - gives this level away sometimes on his "goy" gaurantees

No Limit - same (This is where I designate one unit usually)

Insider Circle - premium plays that he doesn't give away

Billionaire - premium

Perfect Play - premium

Edited December 15, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

Seabass: NFL

10 6 pt. tease SF +14 Over 36

[Steeltown Dre]

LVTR

 

Niners +9