Steeltown Dre Posted October 19, 2008 Author Share Posted October 19, 2008 The Gold Sheet Key Releases for 10-19-08 Houston by 19 over Detroit Indianapolis by 11 over Green Bay Over the Total in the Minnesota-Chicago game That Over is one of my system plays... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted October 19, 2008 Share Posted October 19, 2008 LET'S DO THIS CHI -3 GB +3 CIN +9 BUF +1 WASH -7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE SIX KINGS Posted October 19, 2008 Share Posted October 19, 2008 Early games 2 team parlay Chi -3 & over 37.5 Min & Chi NYGiants -10.5 Tenn -9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 19, 2008 Share Posted October 19, 2008 (edited) I am adding Miami -3. After that thrashing last week vs Indy, and then to Miami for some good old fashioned heat. I think Balt. fades in the second half and Miami takes care of business. Edited October 19, 2008 by rattsass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted October 19, 2008 Share Posted October 19, 2008 The Gold Sheet Key Releases for 10-19-08 Houston by 19 over Detroit Indianapolis by 11 over Green Bay Over the Total in the Minnesota-Chicago game I'd say they nailed that one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE SIX KINGS Posted October 19, 2008 Share Posted October 19, 2008 Early games 2 team parlay Chi -3 & over 37.5 Min & Chi NYGiants -10.5 Tenn -9 Late games Houston -9 Indianapolis +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 rough week: 2-4.............last night took tampa bay -11 and under.....couldnt believe that last seattle td....horrible. tonight I will most probably go with the dog +3 and the over......any thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nimal Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 I like the over tonight, but the more and more I think of it, this is a classic attract the betters to bet the Dog and the Favorite comes to play type of game. This line from +4.5 to +3, and will probably end at +2.5 at some point. I can see New England coming to play and pulling this off, I am staying away... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 I took the proverbial death dagger this weekend. I wont be adding much to these threads from here on out. Times are too tough to be pissing money away. Good luck fellas. This is still one of my favorite threads . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 I took the proverbial death dagger this weekend. I wont be adding much to these threads from here on out. Times are too tough to be pissing money away. Good luck fellas. This is still one of my favorite threads . whomper we all go through those, hopefully you can shake it off and come back soon! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted October 20, 2008 Author Share Posted October 20, 2008 Don't know if this will help much or not. It seems ever since I got mentioned on Steve Czaban's show and the Dan Patrick show, my released plays have gone 2-4. During that same time, my system plays have gone 11-4 ATS and totals have gone 4-3 (top overs 1-1). I think I may start sharing my system plays like I did last season.... Anyhow, sorry for the losing plays whomp and anyone else who tailed. I'm trying my best each week, and hope to turn things around next week. But you are 100% right. In today's economy, my personal advice is to shrink up your bankroll and make sure you are only playing w/ what you can afford to lose. Secondly, and equally as important, be sure you are practicing good money management. That is, in my opinion, 5-absolute max of 10% of your total bankroll each weekend. If you are laying 20-25% of your bankroll a weekend, it won't be pretty when you inevitably have those losing weeks. We are now getting towards the halfway mark of the season, but still are not there just yet.7 down out of 17, and still post-season to come. It's a long journey still, you must play wisely to stay in the game until the season is done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 Don't know if this will help much or not. It seems ever since I got mentioned on Steve Czaban's show and the Dan Patrick show, my released plays have gone 2-4. During that same time, my system plays have gone 11-4 ATS and totals have gone 4-3 (top overs 1-1). I think I may start sharing my system plays like I did last season.... Anyhow, sorry for the losing plays whomp and anyone else who tailed. I'm trying my best each week, and hope to turn things around next week. But you are 100% right. In today's economy, my personal advice is to shrink up your bankroll and make sure you are only playing w/ what you can afford to lose. Secondly, and equally as important, be sure you are practicing good money management. That is, in my opinion, 5-absolute max of 10% of your total bankroll each weekend. If you are laying 20-25% of your bankroll a weekend, it won't be pretty when you inevitably have those losing weeks. We are now getting towards the halfway mark of the season, but still are not there just yet.7 down out of 17, and still post-season to come. It's a long journey still, you must play wisely to stay in the game until the season is done. No need to ever apologize Dre. You have bailed me out of many a jam. I put too much stupid stuff in and it all adds up. Sundays are the dagger for me usually. I killed in baseball all week and gave it all back Sunday and then some. You do an awesome job and I really appreciate your picks over the years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 I have been using somewhat of a system this season, betting my two best games in a parlay, and also in a teaser. It is a safety net of sorts. So far, even on the weeks where my picks were wrong the teaser has paid for the loss on the parlay. Obviously until this week that has only come into play one weekend. Some might argue that playing parlays and teasers (even two teamers) are a bad bet, (and they really are) but so far I have yet to suffer a big loss on any week, even this one where I went 0-3 vs. the spread. I think the key is just to hone in on only those games you are the most sure about, which is a problem for a lot of people, including me. That being said, I am thinking about Denver tonight. Thinking they will win outright. Just thinking so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 Dre, do you know the percentage of people on the Denver $line tonight? I'm thinking that players must be piling on that - and the books aren't completely comfortable with that. Blowdog took the moneyline off the board. Interesting. I would think that if they weren't worried about getting wiped on that one that they would continue to take the Denver $. Just curious what you think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted October 20, 2008 Author Share Posted October 20, 2008 Dre, do you know the percentage of people on the Denver $line tonight? I'm thinking that players must be piling on that - and the books aren't completely comfortable with that. Blowdog took the moneyline off the board. Interesting. I would think that if they weren't worried about getting wiped on that one that they would continue to take the Denver $. Just curious what you think. Ratt - the numbers I am looking at now show 76% on the ML. Many services are on Den and it would fade Lang's NE play. I think the public perception is NE is a bad team this year, and Den is a solid 4-2 team. Plus, Den played very well vs NE recently. My view is that Den, while beating teams like Oak, SD, NO and TB, is a mere 1-4-1 ATS and has not covered a spread since Week 1. This is also Den's 1st road game since getting drubbed by KC. They are on a bye next week, and recently Den has been good prior to bye games, but most of their games were at home. This Den team is not the same as the team led by Jake Plummer and T. Bell in 06 that won in NE in week 3 prior to their bye. But same can be said for NE, especially w/o Brady. NE is also 0-2 ATS at home. My system is only 1 point off from what this line is. Not surprising, as many MNF games seem to be right on w/ my system (lines are very tight MNF). In my opinion, based on my system's results, this is a game that you play if you have a strong feeling towards an outcome. After what happened to me last MNF, releasing a play that was not system based and which I did not feel strongly about, I certainly won't make the same mistake twice. I definitely have no play but would be interested to hear someone make a strong case one way or another. I have seen opinions on both sides of the fence, but no one has convinced me that either play is superior enough to wager on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE SIX KINGS Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 From the Gold Sheet *Denver 23 - NEW ENGLAND 19--Matt Cassel now 2-2 as a starter, with the Pats averaging 18 ppg. No offense to Cassel, but that's not exactly the same as the recording-setting 37 ppg juggernaut directed by Tom Brady LY. Meanwhile, Jay Cutler is arguably the brightest young QB in the league, with 12 TDs vs. 5 interceptions while running Mike Shanahan's play-action offense. Yes, Denver has covered only 2 of its last 10 away. But Shanahan is 5-1 vs. the spread his last 6 meetings vs. Bill Bellichick. Pats still capable, but have much to prove. CABLE TV--ESPN (06-Denver +6' 17-7...SR: Denver 26-15) Personally I'm laying off tonight. Good Luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 I have been using somewhat of a system this season, betting my two best games in a parlay, and also in a teaser. It is a safety net of sorts. So far, even on the weeks where my picks were wrong the teaser has paid for the loss on the parlay. Obviously until this week that has only come into play one weekend. Some might argue that playing parlays and teasers (even two teamers) are a bad bet, (and they really are) but so far I have yet to suffer a big loss on any week, even this one where I went 0-3 vs. the spread. I think the key is just to hone in on only those games you are the most sure about, which is a problem for a lot of people, including me. That being said, I am thinking about Denver tonight. Thinking they will win outright. Just thinking so far. I agree... I've had a tendency to force plays at times, especially the primetime (Sunday/Monday night games). This week, I stayed away from both. Glad I did, because I thought long and hard about taking TBB giving the points, which they did not cover. I've pretty much stayed away from NE all year, since it's hard to really gauge yet what type of team they are going to be without Brady. Plus, Denver hasn't exactly been a model of consistency either. Should be interesting, but not one I'm comfortable predicting the outcome on. The one game I felt really strongly about was the Chicago/MN game. Once I saw Dre's plays for the week, it confirmed my confidence... I parlayed the Over with CHI -3 and won. That win more than cancelled out the small teasers I played (and lost) on Saturday and Sunday combined. But, I'm definitely learning to be more selective in the teasers/parlays that I play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 Well, the trends for this game don't really give us much insight as far as I am concerned. Am I mistaken of have the Pats failed to cover the spread in all but about one of their last dozen games or so? I was thinking they were on a horrible run ATS. I can't really give any compelling reasons for taking the Broncos. I just think they will win the game. They struggled on the road against the Chiefs, but then again the Pats struggled at home against the Chiefs. They barely won that game with the Chiefs driving for the tie at the end and coming up short. I think Denver is short in the running game but so is NE. The defenses have both sucked. Pretty even teams in my eyes. Except at quarterback. And despite Cutlers problems over the last few weeks, I think he is a lot closer to the QB we saw the first 3 weeks than the one we have seen in the last 3. Kind of just a hunch pick on my part. If Denver can win the turnover battle (a big if) I think they are the better team here. New England got jacked hard by the team the Bronocs are ahead of in the standings last week. Lucky to not be 0-2 vs. the AFC West so far, and this is probably the best team in the division. This is kind of a moment of truth for both teams in my opinion. NE needs it worse, but just don''t think they are hungry enough to make it happen. Denver is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted October 20, 2008 Author Share Posted October 20, 2008 I agree... I've had a tendency to force plays at times, especially the primetime (Sunday/Monday night games). This week, I stayed away from both. Glad I did, because I thought long and hard about taking TBB giving the points, which they did not cover. I've pretty much stayed away from NE all year, since it's hard to really gauge yet what type of team they are going to be without Brady. Plus, Denver hasn't exactly been a model of consistency either. Should be interesting, but not one I'm comfortable predicting the outcome on. The one game I felt really strongly about was the Chicago/MN game. Once I saw Dre's plays for the week, it confirmed my confidence... I parlayed the Over with CHI -3 and won. That win more than cancelled out the small teasers I played (and lost) on Saturday and Sunday combined. But, I'm definitely learning to be more selective in the teasers/parlays that I play. Gopher, if you are going to "force" any play, and hopefully you keep it to a minimum, do not force a primetime game, ever. Laying low on primetime and picking spots on your 1pm or 4pm Sunday games is the road to success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 Dre, Just curious... with the numbers of things that you listed as reasons why you were not that comfortable with the CIN/PIT game, what factors caused you to lean in the direction of making this one of your posted plays? I know you put a lot of time and thought/effort into determining your weekly plays, and that we only see a snapshot of everything that goes into the decision-making process, but how much do you factor in a particular player's status, in addition to the trends that you seem to rely heavily on? In other words, to use the CIN/PIT game as an example, given that your system showed that the Bengals had a solid chance at covering the spread, what would have caused you to stay away? Palmer was out, yet a lot of the Bengals' trends would have been based on games in which he played... Personally, that would make me want to stay away from that game... similar to how I will be staying away from the NE/DEN game, due to the fact that I still haven't figured out how much Brady's absence affects the Patriots, week in and week out. I also realize that many of the trends are situational trends, not just trends involving the two teams in question. I guess my question is... in what order do you rank the following factors in order of importance, in determining whether or not to make a play: - Trends directly related to the teams in question. - Trends directly related to the teams in question, particularly when they play each other. - Where the game is being played. - Other general trends... West coast/East coast, Monday night games, divisional/non-divisional, after/before a bye, etc. - Major players missing due to injury. - Gut feeling. I know it's probably not that easy... My guess is that you probably can't "rank" the above items, necessarily, since every game/situation is slightly different. But, do any of the above stick out as being much more important than one of the others? By the way, this is NOT an attempt to "question" your system... To be honest, I'm fascinated by how much time you DO put into this, and just wanted to pick your brain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 Gopher, if you are going to "force" any play, and hopefully you keep it to a minimum, do not force a primetime game, ever. Laying low on primetime and picking spots on your 1pm or 4pm Sunday games is the road to success. Makes sense... Even though I've done quite well this year on the SNF/MNF games, I'm making an effort to not get in the habit of playing the games just because it's the only game on. Easy habit to get into, especially when it seems like TBB covering seems like easy money. Just didn't feel right, so I stayed away. I'm definitely staying away tonight as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcat2334 Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 LET'S DO THIS CHI -3 GB +3 CIN +9 BUF +1 WASH -7 3-2, Wash just didn't close Cle out....had a nice day with NCAA Sat, so I am gonna force it baby - lighter than usual but still playing NE -3 Under 48.5 good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheikYerbuti Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 I think it's time to just bet TENN every week. They're an ATS monster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleeping King Posted October 20, 2008 Share Posted October 20, 2008 Tonight I have. Sammy Morris Over 15.5 carries Randy Moss Over 72.5 yards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted October 21, 2008 Share Posted October 21, 2008 As long as Eddie Royal gets 8 points or more and Welker gets less than 28 I don't really even care what else happens. . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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