wiegie Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Right now, about 300 days into the bear market (i.e. since the market started declining) the stock market's losses are about 30% greater (in percent terms) than the losses the market experienced 300 days after the 1929 bear market started. (the 1929 market was down about 40% at this stage whereas our current market is down 52%) (For reference, the 1929 decline lasted for more than 800 days and had lost 89% of its value by the time it hit rock bottom.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isleseeya Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Right now, about 300 days into the bear market (i.e. since the market started declining) the stock market's losses are about 30% greater (in percent terms) than the losses the market experienced 300 days after the 1929 bear market started. (the 1929 market was down about 40% at this stage whereas our current market is down 52%) (For reference, the 1929 decline lasted for more than 800 days and had lost 89% of its value by the time it hit rock bottom.) well i guess i cant use sunshine as a nickname for you it is bad though ...very bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 So how many people wish the stockbrokers and bankers windows weren't made of unbreakable glass? :raiseshand: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 (For reference, the 1929 decline lasted for more than 800 days and had lost 89% of its value by the time it hit rock bottom.) So, maybe I should wait before throwing even more money into the 401k rathole.......should be able to get good company stocks at pennies on the dollar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylive5 Posted November 20, 2008 Share Posted November 20, 2008 Well then wiegie let me ask you this.... If I keep the stock I own for the next, say, 10 years.. will I see them return to viability or are they just so much TP? Right now all those companies still exist and are not part of a bail out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polksalet Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 (edited) So, maybe I should wait before throwing even more money into the 401k rathole.......should be able to get good company stocks at pennies on the dollar I still buy the concept of dollar cost averaging. If this is the bottom you will lose a lot of gain. You boys can have this stock market stuff. I'm making my future on pine trees, pinto beans, and goats. Edited November 21, 2008 by polksalet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Well then wiegie let me ask you this.... If I keep the stock I own for the next, say, 10 years.. will I see them return to viability or are they just so much TP? Right now all those companies still exist and are not part of a bail out. That's the key question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perchoutofwater Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Were people coming on TV every evening telling us how bad it was in 1929? While there is definitely a problem, I think a lot of it is largely due to perception and hyperbole. And yes Joe Biden and I have one thing in common, well not really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonorator Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 the dramatic stock market run up that has happened in the last 20 years or so, i believe, was directly linked to capital and credit flowing so freely, like never before. it was fun while the party lasted, but reality has set in and when so much of that capital and credit is based on consumer and mortgage debt layered on top of different investment vehicles all dependent on that debt, it is bound to crash. i truly believe that this is a fundamental reset of the stock markets and that anyone hoping for such a dramatic rise again in the near future is going to be disappointed. companies are going to find it harder than ever to manage to consistent growth targets when they no longer have as many complex, sophisticated investment avenues that make it easy to move around their money (see GE). that's why "organic growth" has become hot lately. people can see through the funny money and want to know how much companies are actually growing. if you pull up a chart of the dow and project the slope of the curve forward starting in 1985 based on past performance, you will see that we are still a bit higher vs. where the 60 years of history would have us. now, you could argue that with the information age and with globalization that we deserve to be higher, but i don't think these justify the massive shift that started then in both the slope of the curve and the volume of shares traded. bottom line i think is that it is going to be a number of years before stocks return to some of their former highs. i still believe in stocks, but they are going to be much more of a longer term investment vs. what we've seen in recent past and people are going to need to rachet down their expectations. i think this is a good thing overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Were people coming on TV every evening telling us how bad it was in 1929? While there is definitely a problem, I think a lot of it is largely due to perception and hyperbole. you mean stuff like this: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a6el6aG0f0oA Goldman Slashes U.S. Growth Forecasts, Says Recession Deepens By Dave Liedtka Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. increased its recession estimates, saying gross domestic product is declining at a 5 percent annual rate in the current quarter and will drop 3 percent and 1 percent in the next two quarters. Unemployment will reach 9 percent by the fourth quarter of 2009, Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a research note today. Last Updated: November 21, 2008 07:28 EST the problem is real and it is bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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