muck Posted December 23, 2008 Share Posted December 23, 2008 ...last one of the year...so, here goes nothing... Playoff Teams -- remember, I project w/l percentage (which means that teams get partial wins and partial losses based on the probability that one team will win a game) and put the highest percetages get in the playoffs (I do not pay attention to tie-breakers): 14-2 TEN 12-4 PIT 11-5 NE 8-8 DEN 11-5 IND 11-5 BAL 13-3 NYG 12-4 CAR 10-6 CHI 9-7 ARI 11-5 ATL 10-6 TB ...................... 2009 NFL Draft Order: DET STL KC CIN CLE OAK SEA JAX GB SF BUF HOU SD NO WAS PHI MIN DAL NYJ MIA ...................... Power Ranking (just launched this last week, fyi): 100.0 PIT 99.2 TEN 98.0 NYG 92.1 CAR 90.5 BAL 90.1 IND 85.1 NE 85.1 ATL 82.2 MIA 80.1 TB 79.7 MIN 79.7 DAL 79.3 PHI 77.6 CHI 76.0 NYJ 74.7 ARI 70.6 NO 70.2 WAS 70.2 DEN 69.7 SD 68.9 HOU 62.3 BUF 60.2 GB 58.1 JAX 57.3 SF 54.8 CLE 54.8 CIN 51.1 OAK 49.0 SEA 42.3 KC 39.4 STL 28.6 DET ...................... Projected Winners (135-89 through week 16; didn't pick week one): NE beats BUF MIA beats NYJ PIT beats CLE BAL beats JAX CIN beats KC TEN beats IND CHI beats HOU SD beats DEN (which, I know, due to tie-breakers would put them in the playoffs, not DEN as shown above ... it's all in the 'partial wins/losses' that are a function of the way I project games) TB beats OAK NYG beats MIN WAS beats SF PHI beats DAL GB beats DET CAR beats NO ATL beats STL ARI beats SEA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip_Side Posted December 23, 2008 Share Posted December 23, 2008 Umm this whole system looks flawed lol. How does NE make the playoffs if the Dolphins beat the Jets? How is Pitt ranked 1 in your power rankings if Tennessee just beat them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted December 23, 2008 Share Posted December 23, 2008 Umm this whole system looks flawed lol. How does NE make the playoffs if the Dolphins beat the Jets? How is Pitt ranked 1 in your power rankings if Tennessee just beat them? You gotta understand - Muck's figures are not calculating who plays each other. In other words, it's not individualized - it's based purely on the numbers. This is very good analysis if you know how to use it. You shouldn't knock the guy for attempting such in-depth analysis. How about you present something of value instead of knocking a guy for providing such detail? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip_Side Posted December 24, 2008 Share Posted December 24, 2008 You gotta understand - Muck's figures are not calculating who plays each other. In other words, it's not individualized - it's based purely on the numbers. This is very good analysis if you know how to use it. You shouldn't knock the guy for attempting such in-depth analysis. How about you present something of value instead of knocking a guy for providing such detail? lol I'm not knocking his system, I've read it every week and found it pretty interesting. I just was just asking a simple question and hoping for a simple answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 24, 2008 Author Share Posted December 24, 2008 (edited) Umm this whole system looks flawed lol. How does NE make the playoffs if the Dolphins beat the Jets? As I've said all along, I project an "end of year winning percentage", which results in fractional wins and losses ... and, as I've done all season long, the teams with the best W/L percentage 'make the playoffs' ... and ... as I've said all along, by projecting an end of year winning percentage, there are no ties, therefore no tie-breakers. Obviously, it's different in the NFL. Hence my disclaimer about how SD projects to beat DEN (I have it at about a 55% chance of SD winning the game), but as a result, SD only gets credit for 0.55 wins and gets credit for 0.45 losses ... and since DEN is already 1.00 games in front of SD, SD projects to have a lower winning percentage (7.55 wins and 8.45 losses for SD vs. 8.45 wins and 7.55 losses for DEN). ...same thing (generally) applies to the whole NE/MIA/NYJ/BAL tie-breaker thing... How is Pitt ranked 1 in your power rankings if Tennessee just beat them? Because PIT has outperformed their strength of schedule more than TEN has...even after having just lost to TEN. That said, TEN did close the game a bunch w/ the victory, and after this coming week's games, they could flip spots, depending on how each team does this week and how the teams they've already played perform. Specifically, lets say that every team that PIT played that TEN did not won ... and every team that TEN played that PIT did not lost ... that makes PIT's historic strength-of-schedule higher, which will increase their Power Rank (vs. the rest of the NFL). The top "power" team has their score set to 100.0 and all other teams are a percentage of their score. So, SF is twice as strong as DET, for example ... and PIT is 10% stronger than IND. And, KC shows up as a stronger team that STL because they've played tougher competition...etc... So, for PIT to have a higher power ranking than TEN even though they've won two fewer games, that PITs schedule has been substantially more difficult than TENs has been... Specifically, TEN's average opponents' W/: % is only 0.452 where as PIT's is 0.595. Since TEN's W/L % is 0.867, they outperformed expectations (which is 1 - 0.452, or 0.548) by 0.319 ... and PIT's W/L % of 0.733 outperformed expectations (1 - 0.595 = 0.405) by 0.328 ... so, PIT is a stronger team per this rather rudimentary analysis. Also, note that I've not figured out how to translate this into a margin of victory (if at all), but there may be something there ... or, maybe not ... Regardless, I won't have any time for that analysis any time soon. Edited December 24, 2008 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted December 24, 2008 Share Posted December 24, 2008 lol I'm not knocking his system, I've read it every week and found it pretty interesting. I just was just asking a simple question and hoping for a simple answer. Fair enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorian Posted December 24, 2008 Share Posted December 24, 2008 This system is not ideal, but I will take it into consideration sometimes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 28, 2008 Author Share Posted December 28, 2008 This system is not ideal, but I will take it into consideration sometimes Out of curiousity, how do you use it and what do you use it for? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief Dick Posted December 28, 2008 Share Posted December 28, 2008 Out of curiousity, how do you use it and what do you use it for? Dorian, be careful how you answer this. You might just make muck's year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 28, 2008 Author Share Posted December 28, 2008 He's been a member for less than a week...my expectations are low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip_Side Posted December 28, 2008 Share Posted December 28, 2008 Thanks for clearing that up muck, you didn't have to go into such great detail but thanks again for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted December 28, 2008 Share Posted December 28, 2008 He's been a member for less than a week...my expectations are low. And he's only replying to spam. Not sure why he still has access. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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