Those Damn Economists!

[SEC=UGA]

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The recovery is picking up steam as employers boost payrolls, but economists think the government's stimulus package and jobs bill had little to do with the rebound, according to a survey released Monday.

 

In latest quarterly survey by the National Association for Business Economics, the index that measures employment showed job growth for the first time in two years -- but a majority of respondents felt the fiscal stimulus had no impact.

 

 

NABE conducted the study by polling 68 of its members who work in economic roles at private-sector firms. About 73% of those surveyed said employment at their company is neither higher nor lower as a result of the $787 billion Recovery Act, which the White House's Council of Economic Advisers says is on track to create or save 3.5 million jobs by the end of the year.

 

That sentiment is shared for the recently passed $17.7 billion jobs bill that calls for tax breaks for businesses that hire and additional infrastructure spending. More than two-thirds of those polled believe the measure won't affect payrolls, while 30% expect it to boost hiring "moderately."

 

 

But the economists see conditions improving. More than half of respondents -- 57% -- say industrial demand is rising, while just 6% see it declining. A growing number also said their firms are increasing spending and profit margins are widening.

 

Nearly a quarter of those surveyed forecast that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, will grow more than 3% in 2010, and 70% of NABE's respondents expect it to grow more than 2%.

 

Still, the survey suggested that tight lending conditions remain a concern. Almost half of those polled said the credit crunch hurts their business.

 

http://money.cnn.com/2010/04/26/news/econo...ndex.htm?hpt=T2

 

Kinda funny, I read an article in Reuters this AM about this report and nomention of the economists doubting the effectiveness of the stimulus was mentioned. Kinda like yesterday, CBSnews had a headline "Thousands Protest Arizona Immigration Law", The CNN headline read "Hundreds Turnout to Protest Imigration Law"

[dmarc117]

spend, spend, spend!!!! weeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[Perchoutofwater]

Well, at least we got to waste a bunch of money on handouts.

[SayItAintSoJoe]

Interesting article although they sure didn't poll a whole lot of folks did they?

 

68 polled

49 said stimulus had no effect

19 said that it did (I guess, although the article doesn't claim that)

 

I guess I'd be interested to see what companies they worked for as well as to how the conclusions (good or bad) were reached. Seems pretty vague.

[bpwallace49]

This thread is useless without Weigie . . . .

[SEC=UGA]

This thread is useless without Weigie . . . .

 

Lazy ass state employee, probably still in bed. But, your statement is very true. WIEGIE, GET YOUR ASS OVER HERE!!!!!!

[cre8tiff]

68 does not a viable sample make.

[Big Country]

68 does not a viable sample make.

 

I generally create a viable sample with 69.

[Azazello1313]

This thread is useless without Weigie telling me how I should try and spin it. . . .

 

true enough.

[bpwallace49]

true enough.

 

Oh I get it! You took my post, which said something different, and then cleverly edited it to make it seem like it should have a predetermined conclusion! Great job! That is HILARIOUS!

 

[wiegie]

It's hard to know what the results mean without actually being able to read the survey itself (which I can't do since I am not a member of the NABE). According to the wording in the CNN article:: "About 73% of those surveyed said employment at their company is neither higher nor lower as a result of the $787 billion Recovery Act" it is hard to draw any conclusions at all from this survey about the efficacy of the stimulus. In fact, reading it the other way, you could interpret the results as saying that more than 1 in 4 business economists surveyed said that the stimulus plan DID increase payrolls at their firms... and that would be quite good.

 

As SayItAin'tSo said above, not knowing what firms the respondants were working for also makes interpreting the responses hard. If they surveyed economists at, say, accounting firms, it would make sense that the stimulus plan didn't create jobs for those firms since those firms are generally acyclical by nature. Similar if they polled economists working for consulting firms.

 

Overall, I would very little into this survey.

[Azazello1313]

It's hard to know what the results mean without actually being able to read the survey itself (which I can't do since I am not a member of the NABE). According to the wording in the CNN article:: "About 73% of those surveyed said employment at their company is neither higher nor lower as a result of the $787 billion Recovery Act" it is hard to draw any conclusions at all from this survey about the efficacy of the stimulus. In fact, reading it the other way, you could interpret the results as saying that more than 1 in 4 business economists surveyed said that the stimulus plan DID increase payrolls at their firms... and that would be quite good.

 

I agree there is a big difference between 73% saying it hasn't affected unemployment in general, versus 73% saying it hasn't affected employment at their firms. the complete survey is behind a registration, but the summary at the NABE site seems to be less confusing on that point than the cnn article:

 

The vast majority (73%) of respondents reported the fiscal stimulus enacted in February 2009 has had no impact on employment to date. While 68% also believe a jobs bill, such as the one recently enacted into law, will have no impact on payrolls, 30% do believe it will boost payrolls moderately.