Time to cut bait on Steven Jackson ?

[Henry Muto]

Is it time to cut bait on Steven Jackson ? he had a great year for yards last season but only 4 TD's and I play in a TD heavy league. I have had S-Jackson since he was a rookie when I drafted him but he peeked in 2006 and at that time I could have got the world for him. As it seems with most RB's (not all) when they peek with that huge year they are never the same and S-Jackson has been this way in 2007-2009 with injuries and his team being terrible killing his TD's. So is now the time to cut bait or will he have a few more great season in him ?

 

I was kinda hoping he was going to become a FA and go to a team where he could be back to his old self stat wise. Similar to what Turner had happen for him when he went to a team like Atlanta and exploded for 17 TD's.

 

Instead Jackson was resigned by the Rams and now is stuck in that bad situation for a few more years before Bradford becomes a good QB and before the Rams find any good WR's.

 

By the time the Rams are back Jackson will be age 30 and we all know what that means. RB death to 90% of good RB's.

 

Thoughts ?

 

If you traded S-Jackson right now in a dynasty league what would you expect back in terms of draft picks or players ?

[tazinib1]

Is it time to cut bait on Steven Jackson ? he had a great year for yards last season but only 4 TD's and I play in a TD heavy league. I have had S-Jackson since he was a rookie when I drafted him but he peeked in 2006 and at that time I could have got the world for him. As it seems with most RB's (not all) when they peek with that huge year they are never the same and S-Jackson has been this way in 2007-2009 with injuries and his team being terrible killing his TD's. So is now the time to cut bait or will he have a few more great season in him ?

 

I was kinda hoping he was going to become a FA and go to a team where he could be back to his old self stat wise. Similar to what Turner had happen for him when he went to a team like Atlanta and exploded for 17 TD's.

 

Instead Jackson was resigned by the Rams and now is stuck in that bad situation for a few more years before Bradford becomes a good QB and before the Rams find any good WR's.

 

By the time the Rams are back Jackson will be age 30 and we all know what that means. RB death to 90% of good RB's.

 

Thoughts ?

 

If you traded S-Jackson right now in a dynasty league what would you expect back in terms of draft picks or players ?

 

Anything short of a 2011 1st AND a 2nd tier RB isn't even worth looking at. Trust me, there are still guys that have mad love for Jackson. I am one of them but dynasty leagues are different. Start listening to offers and see who will give you the best deal. If you don't like what you see, hope for a hot start and sell high mid-season.

[Henry Muto]

Anything short of a 2011 1st AND a 2nd tier RB isn't even worth looking at. Trust me, there are still guys that have mad love for Jackson. I am one of them but dynasty leagues are different. Start listening to offers and see who will give you the best deal. If you don't like what you see, hope for a hot start and sell high mid-season.

 

I have not shopped him at all so I don't know what I could get. I was trying to land the 2 pick in this year's draft and was offering Boldin for it but the guy came back with "how about Boldin and Jackson". I almost puked at that but then it got me to thinking about should I think about dealing Jackson because the thought really never crossed my mind.

 

Some other guy just dealt Frank Gore and Flacco and got back the 3rd pick, 5th pick, Britt and a 2011 (3rd round).

 

Contracts play a role in my league though so you can't just look at the players without taking in the contract situation as that does tend to affect a guys value.

 

Example in my eye's Boldin is almost on par with R-White in a dynasty league. Boldin is 1 year older, both teams play in similar run 1st type offenses with up and coming good QB's. White has the edge but maybe not by that much though Boldin tending to get hurt sometimes lowers his value some.

 

In my league R-White has a $0.10 contract right now while Boldin has a $3.10 contract

 

We have a $35 cap so it can make a difference.

 

The guy traded White mid season last year at the trade deadline for 2 future 1st round picks and a future 2nd.

These picks ended up being the 1, 6 and 14. (when trading away his pick he knew it would probably be top 4 and still did so anyway)

 

Right now my best offer for Boldin is 2 (2nd round) picks. The 14th pick this year and a late 2nd projected pick in 2011 (17-20 most likely)

[Zooty]

I think he's a hold and probably go down with the ship with him

 

If you are lucky enough to get fair value I'd move him but I don't think that's likely. Not to hi-jack but Reggie Wayne owners are in the same boat.

[tomfin2000]

I have Jackson on a dynasty league team that I just inherited a couple of weeks ago and I'm going to start shopping him in a couple of weeks when we get closer to our rookie draft.

 

Part of my motivation is that this team was left in bad shape by the previous owner and it may take me a year or two to build it into a serious contender, so it makes sense for me to try to get younger at RB. However, even if this team was ready to contend now, I would still be interested in moving him. Even though he'll only be 27 when the season starts, he's already played six seasons and taken a pretty good beating over the last four. As we all know, stud RBs typically have a short shelf life and we get very little warning when they're done. One year they're a consensus first round draft pick, the next year they fall of a cliff. I expect SJax to fall off that cliff in 2011, but it could be a year earlier or a year later. Now is the time to move him while he's still a marquee name.

 

Having said all that, I'm not interested in doing a fire sale as he still offers a very high reward to go along with the risk. It would take a top 3 pick in this years rookie draft as I don't see it being worth doing for anything less than Matthews, Spiller, or Bryant. In terms of players, I would be looking for a young RB like Stewart or Wells with a little something extra thrown in like an upside WR or a future draft pick. In terms of WRs, I'd want a guy like Brandon Marshall who represents the same kind of risk/reward but is still young.

Edited May 29, 2010 by tomfin2000

[tazinib1]

Just had a trade go through in a 16 team IDP dynasty league. League has been in existence for 5+ years and owners are very knowledgeable.

 

 

Team A received Steven Jackson

Team B received Cedric Benson/1.2 rookie pick

 

Pretty much what his value should be at this point in time if you wanna cut bait. Aglain, if he starts out hot, you could potentially get more mid-season or he could tank and...well..your chit out of luck.

[tazinib1]

I think he's a hold and probably go down with the ship with him

 

If you are lucky enough to get fair value I'd move him but I don't think that's likely. Not to hi-jack but Reggie Wayne owners are in the same boat.

 

 

Reggie Wayne just went for 2011 1st/3rd

 

I would have tried to get alittle more but not bad if you are ready to ship out Wayne.

[Henry Muto]

Just had a trade go through in a 16 team IDP dynasty league. League has been in existence for 5+ years and owners are very knowledgeable.

 

 

Team A received Steven Jackson

Team B received Cedric Benson/1.2 rookie pick

 

Pretty much what his value should be at this point in time if you wanna cut bait. Aglain, if he starts out hot, you could potentially get more mid-season or he could tank and...well..your chit out of luck.

 

this is a pretty good deal. Benson seems like a starter for the next few years and might produce similar stats to Jackson while that 1.02 you get either Bryant or Mathews. I would have to strongly consider that deal if it was offered to me. Ironically the guy with Benson in my league just dealt his 3 and 5 picks but he still has the 4 pick. I wonder if he would have given me Benson plus the 3 and 5.

 

I would have wanted more for Wayne. Way too much of a crapshoot to take a random 1st round 2011 pick for a guy who even is up there in age probably has another 2-3 great years in him.

[Scooby's Hubby]

Man, the Cowboys coulda drafted him instead of trading down a few picks and getting Julius Jones

[flemingd]

Not to hi-jack but Reggie Wayne owners are in the same boat.

How do you figure this? The guy was a top-flight WR last year, he still has Peyton throwing him the ball, WR's aren't known for hitting any wall like RB's do so strongly, and Wayne isn't exactly the kind of track-guy that only has speed in his favor for age to take a toll on. I'd give my brother's left nut for Wayne in a keeper/dynasty league.

Edited May 31, 2010 by flemingd

[kpholmes]

How do you figure this? The guy was a top-flight WR last year, he still has Peyton throwing him the ball, WR's aren't known for hitting any wall like RB's do so strongly, and Wayne isn't exactly the kind of track-guy that only has speed in his favor for age to take a toll on. I'd give my brother's left nut for Wayne in a keeper/dynasty league.

I partially agree with this.

 

Marvin Harrison began to slow in Indy's offense around 34 - he was route-running receiver who didn't rely heavily on speed. Wayne is the same kind of player, and is only 31. I think Wayne has 2-3 more years of Top-15 Receiver left in him, but because of the dynasty system's value of age, he won't have a very high re-sale value right now.

[Scooby's Hubby]

I partially agree with this.

 

Marvin Harrison began to slow in Indy's offense around 34 - he was route-running receiver who didn't rely heavily on speed. Wayne is the same kind of player, and is only 31. I think Wayne has 2-3 more years of Top-15 Receiver left in him, but because of the dynasty system's value of age, he won't have a very high re-sale value right now.

Man, I didn't know Wayne was that old.

[Zooty]

How do you figure this? The guy was a top-flight WR last year, he still has Peyton throwing him the ball, WR's aren't known for hitting any wall like RB's do so strongly, and Wayne isn't exactly the kind of track-guy that only has speed in his favor for age to take a toll on. I'd give my brother's left nut for Wayne in a keeper/dynasty league.

 

 

I partially agree with this.

 

Marvin Harrison began to slow in Indy's offense around 34 - he was route-running receiver who didn't rely heavily on speed. Wayne is the same kind of player, and is only 31. I think Wayne has 2-3 more years of Top-15 Receiver left in him, but because of the dynasty system's value of age, he won't have a very high re-sale value right now.

 

 

That's fine and dandy but the league I'm trying to move him in, I can't get any interest. Or its a "half-offer" like a late 1st round pick

[tomfin2000]

I've been a Wayne owner in two keeper leagues for past three seasons and picked him in redraft leagues whenever I could. Reggie has helped me win a lot of money and a few championships over the years, so I've always been very loyal to him. However, last season started to get a little frustrating, especially towards the end. He had a tough stretch of games between Weeks 11 and 16 where he only scored in two games and only broke 100 yards in one. In one of the two games where he scored (Week 12), he only had three catches for 19 yards. I'm not going to count Week 17, but he was then held to under 65 yards in all three playoff games and scored only once.

 

I wouldn't say that teams have figured out how to shut him down, but they certainly seem to have figured out how to keep him contained, and Manning (rightfully so) has been perfectly happy to utilize other options. I see the Colts morphing more into a WRBC. It started in 2009 and I expect it to continue in 2010, especially if Gonzales is back.

 

I think people that draft Wayne this year expecting a Top 5 WR1 (which is where just about every site currently has him ranked) are going to be disapointed when they get middle of the road WR2 produciton.

 

I'm sure a lot of other keeper and dynasty league Wayne owners are starting to see the writing on the wall as well, so it's getting tougher to move him than you would expect based on his reputation.

Edited June 1, 2010 by tomfin2000

[tgff]

Yup!!! I noticed 5-6 years ago even when Wayne and Marvin were posting #1 numbers. The problem then, it was one or the other taking turns putting up big points. Now wayne has become the decoy for Clark. I think Polian and Manning know you cant win a championship with just a tight end.

I've been a Wayne owner in two keeper leagues for past three seasons and picked him in redraft leagues whenever I could. Reggie has helped me win a lot of money and a few championships over the years, so I've always been very loyal to him. However, last season started to get a little frustrating, especially towards the end. He had a tough stretch of games between Weeks 11 and 16 where he only scored in two games and only broke 100 yards in one. In one of the two games where he scored (Week 12), he only had three catches for 19 yards. I'm not going to count Week 17, but he was then held to under 65 yards in all three playoff games and scored only once.

 

I wouldn't say that teams have figured out how to shut him down, but they certainly seem to have figured out how to keep him contained, and Manning (rightfully so) has been perfectly happy to utilize other options. I see the Colts morphing more into a WRBC. It started in 2009 and I expect it to continue in 2010, especially if Gonzales is back.

 

I think people that draft Wayne this year expecting a Top 5 WR1 (which is where just about every site currently has him ranked) are going to be disapointed when they get middle of the road WR2 produciton.

 

I'm sure a lot of other keeper and dynasty league Wayne owners are starting to see the writing on the wall as well, so it's getting tougher to move him than you would expect based on his reputation.

[policyvote]

In Dynasty Wars, I just traded Mendenhall and a first for SJax, a second, and 15 of our 70 annual FA doubloons.

 

I'm not high on Mendenhall long-term, and SJax has been a horse on a terrible team. I like the coaches there, though . . . the Rams have nowhere to go but up, and any help at all will help SJax a TON.

 

Peace

policy

Edited June 1, 2010 by policyvote

[MTSuper7]

My feeling on SJax is that he will never come close to 2006 again, and every season that he fails to live up to 2006 is just another notch lower that SJax falls in people's minds. Plus, I don't buy for one second that his back issues are gone. I traded him in LLD before the rookie draft this year, and I could have gotten more (rec'd the 1.04 rookie pick). I might be wrong about SJax, but I'm a firm believer that you have to go with your reads and instincts and act on them without regret. I felt this was the right time to cut bait, and I had a plan for what I wanted to do with that pick.

[flemingd]

I partially agree with this.

 

Marvin Harrison began to slow in Indy's offense around 34 - he was route-running receiver who didn't rely heavily on speed. Wayne is the same kind of player, and is only 31. I think Wayne has 2-3 more years of Top-15 Receiver left in him, but because of the dynasty system's value of age, he won't have a very high re-sale value right now.

 

Marvin from 31 - 34

2006 Indianapolis Colts 16 16 95 1,366 14.4 68T 12 -- -- -- -- -- 1 1

2005 Indianapolis Colts 15 15 82 1,146 14.0 80T 12 -- -- -- -- -- -- --

2004 Indianapolis Colts 16 16 86 1,113 12.9 59 15 -- -- -- -- -- 1 1

2003 Indianapolis Colts 15 15 94 1,272 13.5 79T 10 1 3 3.0 3 0 2 2

Got hurt at 35, only played 5 games.

 

How many players truly give 4 strong years in a row regardless of age? 25%? 50%? 60%? If that's what I'm getting from a guy in dynasty draft, or trading a pick for , I"m all in all day. Even if I only get the 2-3 as you suggest - it's about winning now, baby - I"m happy because this kind of consistent, no-brainer production lets you take a few chances with your last roster spot and maybe land a Sims-Walker or Miles Austin on a flier.

 

Now that I am in full derail mode - I am very soft on SJax. He's been ridden very hard, runs very hard, and doesn't do anything to protect himself or get protection from the line or system he's in. If I"m an owner I'd strongly consider just about any offer for him if one came up and wouldn't use more than a 4rd rounder in a redraft or 10% in an auction draft - prices I"m very unlikely to see.

[BearBroncos]

This is a catch 22 situation. WIth a rookie QB now in the mix, they will need a solid running game to take pressure off of him, however, I think SJax is on the down slide. I'd personally sell high while the opportunity is available. But, this could also be a very, VERY regretable move but I only see SJax getting way to much work and reinjurying his back again.