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Two WDIK questions


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Ryan Grant for sure, to me that is a no brainer. Matt Ryan is definitely the more conservative option, and probably the option I would take, though VY does IMO have more upside, I just don't trust him enough at this point to keep him over Matt Ryan.

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Just curious what you think has changed in the Tennessee offensive landscape to make this prediction?

 

Other than his rookie season, when he had 7 rushing TDs, Young has not scored more than 3 rushing TDs in a season. Last season, his best rushing performance saw him get 11 carries for 78 yards, but, for the 10 games that he was the starter, he only averaged 5 carries for 28 yards. Couple that with an average of 187 yards passing and 1 TD per game, and I just don;t see huge upside potential. The only key offensive addition was 3rd rounder Damian Williams, and I just don't know how much of an impact he will have this season.

 

Ryan on the other hand increased his TDs to 22 from 16 his rookie year (despite missing 3 games), and, averaged about 225 yards per game (consistent with his 215 average his rookie year). No real rushing stats, about 2 carries a game, 1 TD each season.

 

I guess given the statistical history, and as long as Chris Johnson is playing for Tennessee, I just don't see Young getting all these carries all of a sudden this year and improving his passing to a point where he is a better option than Ryan, regardless of scoring system for TDs.

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you disagree, fair enough, not surprising.

 

I am most interested in my first line of my response though, is there something I am missing that has changed in Tennessee that I am overlooking? If there is, then I would like to know so I can consider it in my evaluations?

 

Yes, I have laid out the rationale behind my response, and I do currently disagree with your assesment of the situations, but I was hoping you could do the same for yours, so that if there is additional information that I have missed, I could use it to potentially reconsider my stance. If it is simply a gut feel on your part, that is fine too, as I have many players that I think will outperform or underperform the general consensus.

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Just curious what you think has changed in the Tennessee offensive landscape to make this prediction?

 

Other than his rookie season, when he had 7 rushing TDs, Young has not scored more than 3 rushing TDs in a season. Last season, his best rushing performance saw him get 11 carries for 78 yards, but, for the 10 games that he was the starter, he only averaged 5 carries for 28 yards. Couple that with an average of 187 yards passing and 1 TD per game, and I just don;t see huge upside potential. The only key offensive addition was 3rd rounder Damian Williams, and I just don't know how much of an impact he will have this season.

 

Ryan on the other hand increased his TDs to 22 from 16 his rookie year (despite missing 3 games), and, averaged about 225 yards per game (consistent with his 215 average his rookie year). No real rushing stats, about 2 carries a game, 1 TD each season.

 

I guess given the statistical history, and as long as Chris Johnson is playing for Tennessee, I just don't see Young getting all these carries all of a sudden this year and improving his passing to a point where he is a better option than Ryan, regardless of scoring system for TDs.

 

And how long has Young been the starting QB? They drafted Young for his legs and his ability (many teams fell in love with this type of QB) to get outside the pocket and either make a play in the air or with his legs.

 

Might I make a wager here? I see Young getting 25% of his TD's on the ground this year. Having CJ and a pretty solid receiver core will and a QB with speed = ample opportunity for many points on the ground for Young.

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And how long has Young been the starting QB? They drafted Young for his legs and his ability (many teams fell in love with this type of QB) to get outside the pocket and either make a play in the air or with his legs.

 

Might I make a wager here? I see Young getting 25% of his TD's on the ground this year. Having CJ and a pretty solid receiver core will and a QB with speed = ample opportunity for many points on the ground for Young.

 

He was the primary starter for 3 of his 4 seasons. In those 3 seasons, in which he started 12-14 games per season, he has averaged 10 passing TDs and 4 rushing TDs per season. In those 3 seasons, he has averaged 80 carries for 400 yards and 4 TDs, although he has steadily decreased his rushing numbers, both yardage and TDs, in each of his 3 seasons as a starter.

 

I don't doubt Young will get close to 25% of his TDs on the ground, for his career, he is at 27% of his TDs (12 of 44) coming on the ground, so to say he will get 25% is not much of a stretch.

 

What I am saying is that given his history and comparing that to what Ryan has done in his two years, I just don't see what changes have been made in the Tennessee situation (or, what steps back Atlanta has made) to make it a logical decision to rank Young ahead of Ryan, regardless of scoring system.

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