AP or CJ

[Gourdeau]

So now that everyone has convinced me that I AM crazy for considering Andre Johnson with my first overall pick, who should I go with. Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson. Non PPR, 1 pt 10 rush/rec yards, 6pts rush/rec td

[jrobertz]

IMO you cannot go wrong with either pick. I think CJ obviously has greater potential, but AP has the better qb assuming Brett comesback. AP has the better line and better reciever on his team to take pressure off the running game. CJ is the bigger homerun threat and is more capable of single handedly winning a two or three weeks for you with 40+ point weeks in your scoring system. Personally I would take Chris Johnson because he is on a team that will still be competing in December. If Brett comes back there is a chance Minnesota could clinch late and you might not have AP when playoffs come around, but like I said either one is great pick and you cannot go wrong with either one of them.

[Big Country]

Non-PPR, I take AP.

 

Jrobertz has valid arguments though that you must consider about each player, but, at this point in time, I personally think AP is the safer pick of the two and is how I would lean, but have merit as the #1 pick.

[BearBroncos]

I think that CJ will see less time on the field this year, versus at least last year. He's extremely under paid and the Titans don't want to burn their star out. AP on the other hand will need to increase his productivity, considering they won't have a gun as QB so you can probably expect to see 2008 numbers out of AP again.

 

I'd shoot for AP, even though they drafted a goal line RB.

[SpinalTapp]

If you take the possible CJ hold out off the table, I would take CJ. The Titans offense runs through CJ. The Vikings offense, last year, often flowed through Brett Favre's arm. AP was not the AP of two years ago because Favre was incredible moving the ball down field through the air and in the red zone. Also keep in mind, this year there are no proven backs to vulture away CJ's goal line carries (though LWhite was hurt toward the end of last season). Certainly, Ringer or the kid from Oregon could develop into TD vulture threats down the line, but as it stands, CJ should actually score more TDs this year - I do not expect his touches will decrease even if his carries do decline. AP is always an injury risk (while a bit unfair to say) and the kid from Stanford is a battering ram who could take a few of AP's TDs away - I can see the Vikings line these two guys up in the I-formation (Toby as the fullback of course) and giving Toby a few gut carries up the middle to keep the linebackers honest throughout the year. He will score on three to four of those which otherwise could have been AP TDs.

 

Those are my quick pre-fantasy football season thoughts.

Edited June 19, 2010 by SpinalTapp

[leeb]

Of course as a viking fan this could be just my "homerism" talking but i would take AP over CJ. First because of the holdout that CJ is going to have and how much of training camp and possibly regular season he will miss, and i really like the looks of Ringer and he could take more carries away from CJ in the regular offense than Gerhart will from AP. And while i think Gerhart will take a few goal line and short yardage carries away from AP. AP will still be the workhorse in the viking rushing game.

[rattsass]

CJ in a heartbeat for me.

[Donutrun Jellies]

CJ in a heartbeat for me.

Yep, except for the upcoming holdout. I'd rather have AP for 16 games than CJ for 12 or, worst case, 6 ... His inability to remember the value of his signing bonus when announcing how little he's paid this season will wreck this season -- no skin off his nose, but it will crush his fantasy owners.

[buddahj]

If CJ doesn't hold out...then that's who I'd go with. He's more of a dual threat than AP.

[Zooty]

If I had to do it today it would be AP. The possible hold-out scares me. Otherwise I would take CJ

[Capt. Stanky]

AP is safer for the reasons mentioned. I don't see CJ putting up the same kind of numbers this year. They will spell him more in order to keep him fresh. Also, while AP didn't have the rushing yardage numbers of his first two years, he did have a much better overall fantasy season. 18 rushing TD's to go along with a career high 43 catches for 437 yds. point to AP becoming a more complete back. With CTaylor out of the picture I expect AP to aproach 60 rec this year.

[Capt. Waffle]

CJ nut huggers will pay, way to many carries in 09 and an unhappy camper to boot.....I'll pass this year.

[BarrySuspect]

In making the decision between AP and CJ2K, you need to think about how you are going to assemble your team and who you want to take with your 2nd and 3rd round picks.

 

If you take AP, then in the 2nd and 3rd round you can take a WR/QB combo or WR/RB. AP will score 15 TDs guaranteed so you can wait on a second RB and take the best available QB, which could be Rodgers, Manning or Rivers.

 

If you take CJ, then in the 2nd and 3rd round, you should take WR/RB. WIth CJ, you need to make sure you have another quality RB in the event that CJ holds out, gets hurt or is just less productive than last year. Maybe Pierre THomas slips to you or you lock up Moreno.

 

Hope this helps...PM if you have more questions!

[SpinalTapp]

Some stats to consider:

 

Through first six games when Titans went 0-6, K.Collins was QB, the team stunk, and there was a slight RBBC with CJ and White - CJ averaged 15.8 carries, 99 yards, and .3 TDs per game. In games 10 -16, V.Young took over at QB and CJ averaged 26.3 carries, 141 yds, and 1.2 TDs per game.

 

Overall, CJ had 12 games with more than 100 yards (including 10 straight) and only three games in the last 10 where he did not score a TD. CJ averaged 5.6 yds per carry on 358 total carries (that's a lot of carries). If you only count his performance in games 10 - 16, his yds per game actually dropped a bit to 5.36.

 

If the team reduces his workload to 300 carries and CJ keeps his 5.36 yds per carry average, he could still easily produce 1,600 yds on the ground this year. With a full 16 game season and no proven back to steal goal line carries, he should easily generate 14 - 16TDs - and that is realistic considering that in the first six games last year (during the losing streak) CJ only scored in one game.

 

Conversely, AP had only three games over 100 yards all season and shockingly had nine games at or under 85 yards on the ground. AP averaged 4.4 yards per carry compared to 5.36 yards per carry for CJ. APs advantage last season was in the TD department where he only had four games all seasons where he did not score a TD compared to CJ who had 8 games without a TD (five of those games of course occurred during the initial losing streak). It is interesting to note that last year, AP had five multi-TD games while CJ had six multi-TD games. If AP is given 300 carries this year, based on his yards per carry last year, he would produce 1,321 yards. What AP also has going for him is (1) he is not threatening hold out like CJ and (2) like a mutual fund, we have two years of solid information on how this stock (player) will perform - and man...has it performed. CJ only outperforms AP over one year (which is really based on a 10 game stretch) in his two year career. With these factors in play, AP is the less risky pick - period.

 

Ultimately, I see CJ's yardage potentially coming down with fewer carries and his TDs going up (he effectively lost six performance games last year to start the season). I see AP's TDs potentially coming down (tough to duplicate 18) and his yardage going up (no more CT to steal third down touches). At the end of the day, I just like the upside potential of CJ to keep the roll (even if slightly reduced) going he starting in Week 10 last year - 10 straight 100+ yard games and a TD average per game. I like that the team's offense is built totally around making him the star. AP is a total stud who will win fantasy and actual NFL championships - don't get me wrong. I just believe his performances may not peak out as many times as CJs over the course of a season because AP has such a dynamic quarterback that can dominate a game all by himself.

 

To me, this comes down to risk tolerance. I truly believe CJ will again outperform AP. Last year, in NFL.com leagues based on standard scoring (which also plays a role in this decision) - CJ scored four points more per game than AP. This season, after all the puts and takes, I see the margin being the same. Is a four point margin per game worth the risks associated with CJ? What is your risk tolerance?

 

I'm buying CJ, but I understand why others would buy AP. As they say, past performance (especially over 10 weeks) is no guarantee of future earnings. Good Luck!

[Sunday Couch Potatoe]

In making the decision between AP and CJ2K, you need to think about how you are going to assemble your team and who you want to take with your 2nd and 3rd round picks.

 

If you take AP, then in the 2nd and 3rd round you can take a WR/QB combo or WR/RB. AP will score 15 TDs guaranteed so you can wait on a second RB and take the best available QB, which could be Rodgers, Manning or Rivers.

 

If you take CJ, then in the 2nd and 3rd round, you should take WR/RB. WIth CJ, you need to make sure you have another quality RB in the event that CJ holds out, gets hurt or is just less productive than last year. Maybe Pierre THomas slips to you or you lock up Moreno.

 

Hope this helps...PM if you have more questions!

Quit pimping your site you're on the best one around right here! So just sit back enjoy the ride and don't do roids Barry (Bonds)

[Scooby's Hubby]

i like AP. his catches per year are increasing (19, 21, 43). his QB situation and defense is better. they are contenders. there is no drama with him about contracts. CJ is, if he will get his contract straight, on a roll. Everything is aligned for him to have 3 more really good years, he could easily lead the league in rushing, but will have to be overworked to do it IMO b/c of Vince Young inability to hit a WR downfield. You need Kenny Britt et al to break out like Harvin and SidneyRice already have done. Why wait and gamble on that when you have a real team around AP?