12 TEAM DRAFT TONIGHT! 5th pick, please advise!

[Muriel23]

12 teams, QB is 20 yds/pt and 6/TD

RB & WR get kick and punt return yards 20/pt & TD=6

All other scoring is pretty standard Rushing & Receiving yds is 10/pt

 

STARTING REQUIREMENTS:

QB, 2x RB, 2x WR, RB/WR/TE FLEX, TE, DEF, K

 

So I've been doing mock drafts, and I can't decide which route to go.

Part of me wants to go: WR, WR, RB, QB(Hoping to snag Shaub), RB, RB

Then again I could go RB, WR, RB, QB, RB

 

Or I could completely dismiss getting a top tier QB and go WR & RB for first 5 or 6 rounds.

 

I just can't decide if I want to take AJ at 5 or go with Gore or Turner. Such a tough decision. The RB are more likely to give consistency, but also more likely to get injured due to thier workload.

 

Thoughts, opinions?

[Hannibal]

With that scoring and starting 2 QBs. Rodgers. I might even take a QB in round 2 depending on who fell.

[Capt. Stanky]

With that scoring and starting 2 QBs. Rodgers. I might even take a QB in round 2 depending on who fell.

 

It looks like he only starts 1 QB, so I would not go Rodgers there. Also, it's possible that MJD drops to 5 with the rumblings of his sore knee. Personally, I probably go either MJD, Gore or Turner. I then would try and get the best WR when it comes back to me. D-Jax shoots into the top 5 in this format, so don't forget about him.

Edited August 30, 2010 by Capt. Stanky

[Muriel23]

It looks like he only starts 1 QB, so I would not go Rodgers there. Also, it's possibly that MJD drops to 5 with the rumblings of his sore knee. Personally, I probably go either MJD, Gore or Turner. I then would try and get the best WR when it comes back to me. D-Jax shoots into the top 5 in this format, so don't forget about him.

 

Yes, we only start 1 QB.

Is D-Jax returning punts or kicks this year? I thought Maclin was doing most the returning now?

[Capt. Stanky]

Yes, we only start 1 QB.

Is D-Jax returning punts or kicks this year? I thought Maclin was doing most the returning now?

 

I hadn't heard that. I would need a source. Let me check my sites.

[Capt. Stanky]

D-Jax is still on punt returns, according to Rotoworld

[Hannibal]

lol oops i read it wrong, my bad. I still think with that scoring you have to jump on an elite QB early though.

[Big Country]

lol oops i read it wrong, my bad. I still think with that scoring you have to jump on an elite QB early though.

 

Care to explain this rationale?

[Thews40]

Care to explain this rationale?

I'll take a shot. If passing TD's are worth 6, then a guy like Brees/Rogers is money. They don't get hurt as often and are sure to score a ton most weeks. Look at who made the playoffs in your league last year and who the QB was. I suspect the team that won the SB had either Rogers or Brees.

 

Advice: Take Brees with the first pick at #5.

Edited August 30, 2010 by Thews40

[Muriel23]

Funny you bring up the injury thing as I side with you on that issue. QB are much more likely to play the whole season.

 

However, your logic of the elite QB I believe to be flawed. I won our 12 team league superbowl last year with Rapelisberger as my QB.

 

I'm leaning more and more towards trying to get 2 solid RB's in the first 4 rounds or so, as they have a larger list of 1st/2nd tier players as opposed to WR, where the drop off is very quick. So if I grab the #1 WR, then best 2 RB's I can get, and try and snag a Shaub, Brady or Romo in the 4th.

 

The drop off at the QB tiers is much less drastic than WR and RB. Think about it, Alex Smith goes undrafted most the time, and Palmer goes late as hell also. Either of those guys could be a feasible starting QB and would give you about 2/3 of those "elite" QB's production.

 

Oh thanks for the D-Jax link Capt. Stank. I wish it was easier to find info on the likely kick returners for teams as it can be huge in our league. Josh Cribbs was a top 10 WR in our league last year due to his returns. People I have on my radar this year are: D-Jax (thanks again Stanky!), Johnny Knox, Jacoby Jones, and Cribbs.

 

Anyone else have a good source for returners or have any other starting WR they think will see a lot of returns?

Edited August 30, 2010 by Muriel23

[Big Country]

I'll take a shot. If passing TD's are worth 6, then a guy like Brees/Rogers is money. They don't get hurt as often and are sure to score a ton most weeks. Look at who made the playoffs in your league last year and who the QB was. I suspect the team that won the SB had either Rogers or Brees.

Advice: Take Brees with the first pick at #5.

 

1. You would be wrong regarding the highlighted piece.

 

2. It has been stated thousands of times in other threads, but, there was a whopping 8 passing TD difference between the #1 and #12 QB last year, That transaltes into a whopping 16 points additional value by going from 4 pt to 6 pt passing TDs, essentially a non-factor.

 

3. Regarding the "Brees/Rodgers" money thing, check out the analysis on consistency I did in this thread, as I was in the same camp as you. Some very telling stuff came from doing that. I'll repost the post I am referring to below:

 

Pulling stats from a relatively standard scoring league I am a part of (1 per 20 yard passing, 3 point passing TDs), I pulled the percentage of games a QB was a top 5 QB for a week, a top 12 QB for a week (ie, a starter) and then also the percentages for 13-24 performances and 24+ performances. I accounted for the bye week, which I had converted to 0 points to make the formulas work, by removing one game from the calculation at the 24+ category.

 

Interesting stuff.

 

No QB was a top 5 QB more than 50% of the time (Rodgers was top 5 50% of the weeks, not really a surprise given the year he had). Of those that finished top 12 last season, the lowest %age for top 5 was David Garrard at 6% (though, the #13 QB, McNabb, was top 5 38% of weeks, tied for 3rd best percentage, and only 4 points behind Garrard on the year)

 

The top 10 QBs last year all had top 12 weeks of 50% or greater. Again, Rodgers was #1 with 81%, but oddly, Rivers, the #9 QB was 2nd with 75%.

 

One stat that jumped out at me was weeks ranked in the 25+ category.. basically, non starter and even non-starter in a 12 team start 2 QB league. Brees, the #2 overall QB, led the pack with 19% of games in the 25+ range (yes, this includes week 17 when he sat), tied with Cutler and Garrard. Again, Rodgers was the ONLY QB with no games in this range.

 

Metal - I went into this thinking that your theory was likely correct in terms of consistency, but really other than Rodgers and the great season he had, it just didn't hold true. Every single one of the top 10 QBs scored in the top 12 over 50% of the time (and the 13th and 14th ranked QBs, McNabb and Warner were that high as well, with the games missed costing them in overall ranking and giving them higher 25+ games rankings).

 

So, in addition to showing that consistency is pretty much there for all of the top 12 QBs, in this particular league which has fairly "standard scoring" (the rush/rec is 1 per 10 yards and 6 per TD, 1 PPR), the difference from the #1 to #12 QB was 98 points over the season. To compare, assuming a start 2 RB and 3 WR 12 team league, the gap from the #1 to #24 RB was 220 points (and if we exclude the hugh year CJ had, it was still a 150 point gap) and the gap for the 1-36 WR is 160 points (120 if you only start 2 WRs)

 

So, what the above analysis led me to see is that not only is there a minimal drop off in QB scoring, the consistency isn't even all that much greater in the "elite" guys.

[Thews40]

1. You would be wrong regarding the highlighted piece.

 

2. It has been stated thousands of times in other threads, but, there was a whopping 8 passing TD difference between the #1 and #12 QB last year, That transaltes into a whopping 16 points additional value by going from 4 pt to 6 pt passing TDs, essentially a non-factor.

 

3. Regarding the "Brees/Rodgers" money thing, check out the analysis on consistency I did in this thread, as I was in the same camp as you. Some very telling stuff came from doing that. I'll repost the post I am referring to below:

 

 

 

So, what the above analysis led me to see is that not only is there a minimal drop off in QB scoring, the consistency isn't even all that much greater in the "elite" guys.

I'm wrong huh? Ok, based on what?... a 4 PPTD? At 6 per TD, the delta between Brees/Rogers and the #9 QB isn't worth the delta between the RB/WR drafted in the same place. The last league I played in where 6 points were given for a PTD, the teams with the top 4 QB's all made the playoffs. It's a game, and when passing TD's = 6 QB's go higher. What is the foundation for your argument?

[Henry Muto]

12 teams, QB is 20 yds/pt and 6/TD

RB & WR get kick and punt return yards 20/pt & TD=6

All other scoring is pretty standard Rushing & Receiving yds is 10/pt

 

STARTING REQUIREMENTS:

QB, 2x RB, 2x WR, RB/WR/TE FLEX, TE, DEF, K

 

So I've been doing mock drafts, and I can't decide which route to go.

Part of me wants to go: WR, WR, RB, QB(Hoping to snag Shaub), RB, RB

Then again I could go RB, WR, RB, QB, RB

 

Or I could completely dismiss getting a top tier QB and go WR & RB for first 5 or 6 rounds.

 

I just can't decide if I want to take AJ at 5 or go with Gore or Turner. Such a tough decision. The RB are more likely to give consistency, but also more likely to get injured due to thier workload.

 

Thoughts, opinions?

Why would anyone ever devise a plan where they enter a draft thinking "I want to go WR, WR, RB, QB....." or whatever for positions.

 

You make a sheet with tiers and you draft based on talent on the board especially early on getting players based on how many are left in your tier.

 

If your pick is up and there is 1 RB left in your top tier and 6 WR's left I think you should be taking a RB then wait for your next pick to take a WR.

 

Tiers are the best way to give yourself a chance to be successful in a draft.

 

Going in sold on a spot say WR at 5 then Drew falls to you are you still taking a WR ?

 

I just did a draft where I was at 6 thinking I was going to take a WR because I assumed the top 5 RBs would be gone so I would take AJ but then the draft started and it went #1 overall Andre Johnson....hello ?

 

So when my pick came up #6 Drew was still on the board....so of course I took Drew he was my last RB in tier 1 and I still had 8 WR's in my 1st tier left...well then we get to my 2nd round pick and I had only 1 WR left in my tier 1 his name you may have heard of him...Larry "I get no respect with Leinart as my QB" Fitzgerald.

 

So by using tiers I got a tier 1 RB and a tier 1 WR. Tiers my friend...they are your best friend. Never pigeon hole yourself into a set position before a draft starts.

[Big Country]

I'm wrong huh? Ok, based on what?... a 4 PPTD? At 6 per TD, the delta between Brees/Rogers and the #9 QB isn't worth the delta between the RB/WR drafted in the same place. The last league I played in where 6 points were given for a PTD, the teams with the top 4 QB's all made the playoffs. It's a game, and when passing TD's = 6 QB's go higher. What is the foundation for your argument?

 

You are wrong because you stated that the team with Brees or Rodgers won the SB in my league. This was not true in my WCOFF league.

 

I provided the stats from my relatively standard scoring league - 98 points from the #1 to #12 QB - with a delta of 8 TDs from the #1 to #12 QB, and that league being a 3pt passing TD league, the delta in scoring would grow to approximately 122 points

 

The RB delta for #1 to #24 RB was 220 points (150 if we exclude Chris Johnson)

 

The WR delta was 160 points for #1 to #36

 

 

So, essentially, i can wait until round 6 thru 8 to take my QB and know with pretty good certainty that not only am I only going to lose about 100 points on the season from the position, but the consistency level is about the same based on the provided analysis.

 

Your statement that the delta from Brees/Rodgers, whom you likely use a 1st round pick on, to the #9 Qb, which is generally what, a 5th or 6th round pick, is greater than the delta from Rbs/WRs taken in the same rounds. With all due respect, the math and statistical history just do not support your claim.

 

Using ADP data from this year, the #9 QB is Eli Manning, generally being taken in the 6th-7th round. The RBs with similar ADP are Fred Jackson (74.89), Darren McFadden (77.10), Ahmad Bradshaw (84.66) and Steve Slaton (84.89).

 

Now, if you can honestly state that the combo of Brees or Rodgers plus one of those listed RBs is likely to outperform the combo of Eli Manning and a Ray Rice/MJD/Gore type RB, then more power to you, I just don't buy it, and short of hitting lightning in a bottle with injury or insane overperformance, I just don;t see any of those RBs being a reliable every week starter.

[Big Country]

Muriel - Sorry if it appears to be a hijack here - I'm just passionate about the fact that in a start 1 QB league with no very strange scorig rules, it is almost always a mistake to go QB in the first round, and almost always a mistake to go QB in the 2nd as well.

[Muriel23]

Oh hell no Big C, I appreciate your input on the subjects. I also agree with you in your assessment.

[Muriel23]

To Henry Muto: I do use a tier system, but the first few rounds usually follow patterns and are more predictable. If someone I think of value slips in those first few rounds, sure I'll deviate from what I had in mind. I just think it's smart to have a gameplan on where you want to try and get the guys you're targeting in the early rounds, as these rounds are crucial. It's where most of your starting lineup for the season is gotten.

 

It's not a set in stone, I'm going RB RB QB WR etc, its just more of a guideline of what players/positions I want to aquire where.

[Muriel23]

Now I'm having a hard time choosing between AJ, Gore or Turner if the top 4 RB come off first.

 

I'll try and get a 4th round value on a QB.

[Thews40]

You are wrong because you stated that the team with Brees or Rodgers won the SB in my league. This was not true in my WCOFF league.

I didn't say anything about your league... I asked the person who posted this thread. WCOFF isn't 6 PPTD is it?

 

I provided the stats from my relatively standard scoring league - 98 points from the #1 to #12 QB - with a delta of 8 TDs from the #1 to #12 QB, and that league being a 3pt passing TD league, the delta in scoring would grow to approximately 122 points

You're missing the point. The relevant point is from the person asking the question on their league. I've played in 6 PPTD leagues and done well, and noted that the people who do well have great QB's.

 

The RB delta for #1 to #24 RB was 220 points (150 if we exclude Chris Johnson)

 

The WR delta was 160 points for #1 to #36

 

 

So, essentially, i can wait until round 6 thru 8 to take my QB and know with pretty good certainty that not only am I only going to lose about 100 points on the season from the position, but the consistency level is about the same based on the provided analysis.

Based on 4 point per TD?

Your statement that the delta from Brees/Rodgers, whom you likely use a 1st round pick on, to the #9 Qb, which is generally what, a 5th or 6th round pick, is greater than the delta from Rbs/WRs taken in the same rounds. With all due respect, the math and statistical history just do not support your claim.

 

Using ADP data from this year, the #9 QB is Eli Manning, generally being taken in the 6th-7th round. The RBs with similar ADP are Fred Jackson (74.89), Darren McFadden (77.10), Ahmad Bradshaw (84.66) and Steve Slaton (84.89).

Let's break it down. You're going up against a team with Brees/Rogers in any given week. Are you more scared of Brees at 6 PPTD, or of Fred Jackson?

 

Now, if you can honestly state that the combo of Brees or Rodgers plus one of those listed RBs is likely to outperform the combo of Eli Manning and a Ray Rice/MJD/Gore type RB, then more power to you, I just don't buy it, and short of hitting lightning in a bottle with injury or insane overperformance, I just don;t see any of those RBs being a reliable every week starter.

You are obviously a RB guy, which is old school. What I am saying is that Brees/ Ronnie Brown is a lot more scary than Eli/Gore. JMHO, but Brees at 6 points TD will win games outright on more than half of the season.

Edited August 30, 2010 by Thews40

[Big Country]

Based on 4 point per TD?

 

I provided the scoring separation for both the league in question (3 pt per TD) and also what it would have been for a 6 pt per TD scoring system. It did not change the fact that the separation is greatest at RB, followed by WR and then QB.

 

You are obviously a RB guy, which is old school.

 

Not true. I am an analytical guy. I look at the scoring system, the lineup requirements, # of teams etc in a league and apply some very basic mathematical applications to look for where I not only see drop offs for the current year, but where they occurred historically. There are times where I reccommend a QB in the first round, times where I reccommend and RB and times where I have reccommended a WR. If anything, I am one of the more open minded folks as far as application of draft strategy, so long as there is some form of fundamental analytical thinking behind the strategy.

 

Let's break it down. You're going up against a team with Brees/Rogers in any given week. Are you more scared of Brees at 6 PPTD, or of Fred Jackson?

 

What I am saying is that Brees/ Ronnie Brown is a lot more scary than Eli/Gore. JMHO, but Brees at 6 points TD will win games outright on more than half of the season.

 

You are completely misrepresenting the comparable teams as Brown is not available in the 6th/7th round when Eli is. To make it fair, with an assumption of taking the same players in rounds 2 thru 6, the comparison is Brees/FJackson or Eli/Gore. I'll take the Eli/Gore combo as at least I know I'll have two players that will be on the field and I won't be using my 6th or 7th round pick on a part time player that I will be relying on to provide regular weekly production.

[Thews40]

I provided the scoring separation for both the league in question (3 pt per TD) and also what it would have been for a 6 pt per TD scoring system. It did not change the fact that the separation is greatest at RB, followed by WR and then QB.

 

 

 

Not true. I am an analytical guy. I look at the scoring system, the lineup requirements, # of teams etc in a league and apply some very basic mathematical applications to look for where I not only see drop offs for the current year, but where they occurred historically. There are times where I reccommend a QB in the first round, times where I reccommend and RB and times where I have reccommended a WR. If anything, I am one of the more open minded folks as far as application of draft strategy, so long as there is some form of fundamental analytical thinking behind the strategy.

 

 

 

You are completely misrepresenting the comparable teams as Brown is not available in the 6th/7th round when Eli is. To make it fair, with an assumption of taking the same players in rounds 2 thru 6, the comparison is Brees/FJackson or Eli/Gore. I'll take the Eli/Gore combo as at least I know I'll have two players that will be on the field and I won't be using my 6th or 7th round pick on a part time player that I will be relying on to provide regular weekly production.

In a 6 point per TD leage, Eli is nothinjg against Brees/Rogers... that's my point. If you wish to argue your position that a "solid" RB is worth one of them ,then we agree to disagree.

[Big Country]

In a 6 point per TD leage, Eli is nothinjg against Brees/Rogers... that's my point. If you wish to argue your position that a "solid" RB is worth one of them ,then we agree to disagree.

 

I'm not saying that Eli is the same as having a Rodgers/Brees.

 

I am however saying that the sum of Gore/Eli is greater than that of Rodgers/Brees and whatever RB you can get at a comparable ADP as Eli. The scoring of 4pt or 6 pt passing TDs is irrelevant to that discussion, as we have already shown using analytic evidence (last year it was an 8 TD separation between the top 12 Qbs, a total of 16 additional points over the course of the season compared to a 4 pt TD league)

 

Can you provide some form of analytical evidence to show otherwise?

[delusions of grandeur]

I didn't say anything about your league... I asked the person who posted this thread. WCOFF isn't 6 PPTD is it?

 

FWIW, I play in a league with all 6 point TDs, and went on to win the league last year with Ryan/Flacco/Freeman as my QBs, even despite injuries/bad games and choosing the wrong starters throughout the playoffs... You know why, because I loaded up on skill players before addressing QB in the fifth, and traded for Flacco with bench players.

 

You don't need an elite QB to win. You just need your team to collectively score more points than the other guy... So maybe I'm "old-school", but getting a rare elite RB or even consistent top WR will easily give you an advantage over the guy who has holes on his team and is relying on his RBBC backs and/or questionable WRs because he reached on a QB early.

 

I suspect some of those teams you mentioned had won also had a guy like Ray Rice or Miles Austin break out.

Edited August 30, 2010 by delusions of granduer