Economic Panel

[The Holy Roller]

I'd believe the economic panel a lot more if their announcement was made on the deck of an aircraft carrier with a banner hung up saying something like, oh I don't know, "Ecomonic Recovery Accomplished".

 

I'm with SEC on this one.

[SEC=UGA]

What policies has Obama put in place specifically that have caused the economy not to snap back into place as you'd expect after a serious recession? And don't give me all this "uncertainty" nonsense.

 

I still posit that we live in a new world, global economy, technology, etc and you simply can't expect the system to work like it used to. Business has become more efficient and doesn't need the labor force it used to. Depressed demand has lead everyone to run a tighter ship and figure out ways to do things with less people. IMO the problem is more of a systemic natural outcome of the very nature of how our economic relationships have evolved.

 

We have not had concrete news on what is going to happen with taxes. It is tough for businesses to plan unless we can look at our bottom line and see what type of tax consequences certain actions will have. We are working on the assumption that the top rate is going to go back up, effectively taking working capital out of my business, since I have to work under that assumption, I am not spending any money to create jobs or to purchase equipment.

 

We are not absolutely certain what the new healthcare law will do to our Insurance premiums or whether we should drop it all and have our employees source their own. As I fall under 50 employees most of the ominous aspects of these new regulations don't impact me as heavily, except in one area... PREMIUMS. Most of my employees have children that are on the company insurance, many of them are at the age to where they are/were about to fall off, well, now they can stay on until 26. So, my insurance company ups my rates because of this AND I have to pay those rates for my employees children longer, costs me a great deal of money, somewhere on the order of 8K a month.

 

The tact that the fed is taking with regard to reserve requirements to the bank has been a menace. They will not develop policy verifying what these reserve rates are going to be and the banks are hedging their bets that it is going to be relatively high, 30% or so. So, banks are not lending as freely because they know they have to have a certain amount of cash on hand to not be hassled by the fed when their writ is passed.

 

The financial overhaul bill has increased reporting costs for my company by making me file an ass load of 1099's, probably will only be a few grand more work per year between in house and out of house, but, hey what's a few grand.

 

The same bill has deeply increased the cost of credit for consumers and businesses. If you carry any balance on a credit card, you have seen the average rate go up a point and a half, roughly, since the legislation was enacted reducing fees and instantaneous credit hikes.

 

Cap and trade could also have a very severe impact on my industry in particular with respect to the steel mills from which we get our product. These measures could constrain supply driving up the costs of US steel. THis coupled with the lack of lending and investors not freeing up their money due to policies outlined above could have catastrophic effects for my business.

 

THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY with regard to future initiatives that this admin and legislature will push and the effects that said legislation will have on businesses. Again, don't take my word for it, drive down the road in your community, stop into any construction, manufacturing, retail store, etc.... ask the owners how these policies have affected them and ask them if they are worried about the direction in which we are heading. Might be a sobering experience for you.

[driveby]

I agree. The recession did end in 2009. That's when the depression started.

[TimC]

I should've been an economist or an oil drill repairman engineer. Seems like two jobs that require almost no intelligence whatsoever. Since I'm not a hawt chick with big bewbs, I couldn't have been a meteoroligist. Dang, it must be nice to have a career where it really doesn't matter.

[SEC=UGA]

I should've been an economist or an oil drill repairman engineer. Seems like two jobs that require almost no intelligence whatsoever. Since I'm not a hawt chick with big bewbs, I couldn't have been a meteoroligist. Dang, it must be nice to have a career where it really doesn't matter.

 

Or you coulda been a politician, you talk about being able to get away with wahtever you wanted to and still have 46% of the population support you no matter what, simply by attaching an R or a D to your name.

[Jimmy Neutron]

We have not had concrete news on what is going to happen with taxes. It is tough for businesses to plan unless we can look at our bottom line and see what type of tax consequences certain actions will have. We are working on the assumption that the top rate is going to go back up, effectively taking working capital out of my business, since I have to work under that assumption, I am not spending any money to create jobs or to purchase equipment.

 

We are not absolutely certain what the new healthcare law will do to our Insurance premiums or whether we should drop it all and have our employees source their own. As I fall under 50 employees most of the ominous aspects of these new regulations don't impact me as heavily, except in one area... PREMIUMS. Most of my employees have children that are on the company insurance, many of them are at the age to where they are/were about to fall off, well, now they can stay on until 26. So, my insurance company ups my rates because of this AND I have to pay those rates for my employees children longer, costs me a great deal of money, somewhere on the order of 8K a month.

 

The tact that the fed is taking with regard to reserve requirements to the bank has been a menace. They will not develop policy verifying what these reserve rates are going to be and the banks are hedging their bets that it is going to be relatively high, 30% or so. So, banks are not lending as freely because they know they have to have a certain amount of cash on hand to not be hassled by the fed when their writ is passed.

 

The financial overhaul bill has increased reporting costs for my company by making me file an ass load of 1099's, probably will only be a few grand more work per year between in house and out of house, but, hey what's a few grand.

 

The same bill has deeply increased the cost of credit for consumers and businesses. If you carry any balance on a credit card, you have seen the average rate go up a point and a half, roughly, since the legislation was enacted reducing fees and instantaneous credit hikes.

 

Cap and trade could also have a very severe impact on my industry in particular with respect to the steel mills from which we get our product. These measures could constrain supply driving up the costs of US steel. THis coupled with the lack of lending and investors not freeing up their money due to policies outlined above could have catastrophic effects for my business.

 

THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY with regard to future initiatives that this admin and legislature will push and the effects that said legislation will have on businesses. Again, don't take my word for it, drive down the road in your community, stop into any construction, manufacturing, retail store, etc.... ask the owners how these policies have affected them and ask them if they are worried about the direction in which we are heading. Might be a sobering experience for you.

 

Great post - great call with the last paragraph.

 

There is a tangible fear about the future of the economy that is bigger than politics. I'm glad individuals, banks and businesses are holding onto more cash - that is as it should be - always. While cash hoarding doesn't make for a quick recovery, cheap credit & fast & free spending causes all kinds of problems and led to the mess we're in.

 

I do think Grunge is right about us emerging into a new reality. Many businesses have trimmed jobs by incorporating more technology and putting more on remaining employees. This is a natural process for many businesses - contineous improvement - it is this or die for many businesses. This sucks for a lot of people who have lost their jobs as a result. How do we put them to work?

 

I do think the government can help in this respect in the form of lower taxes, deals on land, etc.

[dmarc117]

http://www.news.com.au/business/breaking-n...6#ixzz106MjZzOz

[WaterMan]

THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY with regard to future initiatives that this admin and legislature will push and the effects that said legislation will have on businesses. Again, don't take my word for it, drive down the road in your community, stop into any construction, manufacturing, retail store, etc.... ask the owners how these policies have affected them and ask them if they are worried about the direction in which we are heading. Might be a sobering experience for you.

 

It wouldn't be sobering for me to drive an hour to Georgia to hear people there don't like Obama.

[Azazello1313]

We have not had concrete news on what is going to happen with taxes. It is tough for businesses to plan unless we can look at our bottom line and see what type of tax consequences certain actions will have. We are working on the assumption that the top rate is going to go back up, effectively taking working capital out of my business, since I have to work under that assumption, I am not spending any money to create jobs or to purchase equipment.

 

We are not absolutely certain what the new healthcare law will do to our Insurance premiums or whether we should drop it all and have our employees source their own. As I fall under 50 employees most of the ominous aspects of these new regulations don't impact me as heavily, except in one area... PREMIUMS. Most of my employees have children that are on the company insurance, many of them are at the age to where they are/were about to fall off, well, now they can stay on until 26. So, my insurance company ups my rates because of this AND I have to pay those rates for my employees children longer, costs me a great deal of money, somewhere on the order of 8K a month.

 

The tact that the fed is taking with regard to reserve requirements to the bank has been a menace. They will not develop policy verifying what these reserve rates are going to be and the banks are hedging their bets that it is going to be relatively high, 30% or so. So, banks are not lending as freely because they know they have to have a certain amount of cash on hand to not be hassled by the fed when their writ is passed.

 

The financial overhaul bill has increased reporting costs for my company by making me file an ass load of 1099's, probably will only be a few grand more work per year between in house and out of house, but, hey what's a few grand.

 

The same bill has deeply increased the cost of credit for consumers and businesses. If you carry any balance on a credit card, you have seen the average rate go up a point and a half, roughly, since the legislation was enacted reducing fees and instantaneous credit hikes.

 

Cap and trade could also have a very severe impact on my industry in particular with respect to the steel mills from which we get our product. These measures could constrain supply driving up the costs of US steel. THis coupled with the lack of lending and investors not freeing up their money due to policies outlined above could have catastrophic effects for my business.

 

THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY with regard to future initiatives that this admin and legislature will push and the effects that said legislation will have on businesses. Again, don't take my word for it, drive down the road in your community, stop into any construction, manufacturing, retail store, etc.... ask the owners how these policies have affected them and ask them if they are worried about the direction in which we are heading. Might be a sobering experience for you.

 

add to that the proposed tax rate increases on pass-through income for the evil rich -- not to clinton era rates, as they are fond of saying, but well beyond.

 

then there's the fact that the policies they HAVE tried have just spun their wheels, while pushing the deficit through the roof. and that debt outlook is throwing a massive wet blanket over everything right now, because 1) all the public debt crowds out private investment, 2) people rationally know all that spending will have to be paid for some day in the form of massively higher taxes than anyone is willing to even talk about right now. people look at the present and foreseeable future -- with this and all the stuff SEC listed -- and all they see is stuff that is going to INCREASE the costs of doing business significantly. so they are extremely bearish on hiring, investing, etc.

[Perchoutofwater]

SEC=UGA made some very good points, but you also have to remember that Obamacare basically put the breaks on most doctor owned hospital expansions. I know of three that were canned when it was passed, and several that are suing the government over it. Add to that the additional cost of bonds (thanks to the shafting the GM and Chrysler bondholders took so Obama could pay off his union supporters), and it makes it that much harder for people to raise money for construction projects.

[bushwacked]

Obamacare basically put the breaks on most doctor owned hospital expansions. I know of three that were canned when it was passed,

 

Well no-one can refute such a claim on the preponderance of anecdotal evidence you have presented here.

[Ursa Majoris]

add to that the proposed tax rate increases on pass-through income for the evil rich -- not to clinton era rates, as they are fond of saying, but well beyond.

To save me the bother of going through all this, does this "taxes going up even further than under Clinton" stuff include the benefits of a lower capital gains tax than under the aforementioned Bill C?

[The Holy Roller]

Well no-one can refute such a claim on the preponderance of anecdotal evidence you have presented here.

 

Yeah! Where's the preponderance!

[Azazello1313]

To save me the bother of going through all this, does this "taxes going up even further than under Clinton" stuff include the benefits of a lower capital gains tax than under the aforementioned Bill C?

 

A similar pattern holds for capital gains. Under the president’s plan, in 2011 and 2012, the top rate on gains, now 15 percent, will go to 20 percent, with the stealth provision adding 1.2 percentage points, sending the tax back to its 1997–2002 level of 21.2 percent. Starting in 2013, though, capital gains will also be hit by the UIMC, pushing the rate to 25.0 percent.

 

under clinton, they started at 28% and he/congress cut them to 20% in 1997.

[Perchoutofwater]

Well no-one can refute such a claim on the preponderance of anecdotal evidence you have presented here.

 

Hardly anecdotal. I was only aware of the 3 that got snatched out of my companies backlog. Apparently there were 21 others that were scrapped, and 47 more that are under construction, that may end up being screwed.

[SEC=UGA]

It wouldn't be sobering for me to drive an hour to Georgia to hear people there don't like Obama.

 

Good response.

[bushwacked]

Hardly anecdotal.

 

Wow, you mean the director of the Heritage Foundation is blaming Obamacare also?

 

I need to see an op/ed by Rush and Glenn Beck before I become a believer.

Edited September 21, 2010 by bushwacked

[Perchoutofwater]

Wow, you mean the director of the Heritage Foundation is blaming Obamacare also?

 

I need to see an op/ed by Rush and Glenn Beck before I become a believer.

 

Regardless of who said it, the fact that 24 major construction projects have been canceled as a result remains unchanged. I know you like it, but that doesn't change facts, it just supports what I've been saying for months. He that hath ears to hear, let him hear.

[posty]

Where's Clinton when you need him?

 

On Letterman...

[bushwacked]

Regardless of who said it, the fact that 24 major construction projects have been canceled as a result remains unchanged.

 

Yes, I'm sure there couldn't be other factors contributing to a slow down in commercial construction other than President Hussein and his Socialist Health Care Agenda.

Edited September 21, 2010 by bushwacked

[driveby]

Yes, I'm sure there couldn't be other factors contributing to a slow down in commercial construction other than President Hussein and his Socialist Health Care Agenda.

Wow.

 

I believe you'd take a bullet for this guy. Amazing.

[bushwacked]

Wow.

 

I believe you'd take a bullet for this guy. Amazing.

 

You're a bit confused here.

 

Perch often makes absolute statement's without really having a clue. This is a huddle factoid.

 

If questioning what Perch is saying = taking a bullet for Obama; let me assure you, you would be surprised how many here would sacrifice.

Edited September 21, 2010 by bushwacked

[driveby]

You're a bit confused here.

 

Perch often makes absolute statement's without really having a clue. This is a huddle factoid.

 

If questioning what Perch is saying = taking a bullet for Obama; let me assure you, you would be surprised how many here would sacrifice.

In this case he pretty much backed it up, so point to perch.

[bpwallace49]

Sooo while companies are banking record profits in some areas of the economy, they just arent hiring people because . . . uncertainty that taxes may or may not rise in the future. Riiiiight . . . . .

 

"Hmm . . lets seee. We have slashed payroll, cut jobs, and are running extremely efficiently and making RECORD profits! Hmm . . but we dont want to increase our business and expand or re-hire some of these people, cause jeez! The possibility exists that things may be difficult in the future! So why dont we continue to hold onto these record profits for as long as we can and NOT grow . . . cause the future is soooo y'know, uncertain!"

 

What is the excuse going to be if the Republicans take a control of both houses of Congress? That sometime in the hazy future the Dems might take power again . . and since that is soo "uncertain" we just cant hire people? Why would they if they are raking in record profits?

 

George Bush the first had his famous "read my pis. No new taxes." and then promptly raised taxes. Reagan also raised taxes in some areas, while decreasing in others, but RAISED some taxes nonetheless. To think that the right will somehow abolish taxes is lunacy. But is suuure gives businesses an excuse to NOT hire.

 

The right is running on a message of repealing the Health care bill, and may very well have enough votes to do so this fall. I wonder what the excuse will be if it is repealed? that maybe in the shadowy unknown scaaaary future they "might" be taxes! ooooo! [spookyvoice]

 

I guess we just need to cave in, give all business whatever the hell they want with zero restrictions and hope that they pay the poor serfs enough to keep they massive profits growing at an unrealistic (yet expected) rate.

 

**Of course certain industries will still siffer from this, and it is not meant to say that ALL companies are recording record profits, as the construction industry has been often discussed here as being destroyed single-handedly by Obama. **

[westvirginia]

{grunge] I only said give me ONE example [/grunge]

 

Again, you supporters of the obamessiah will call this schtick, but he is OUT OF HIS DEPTH. He doesn't have a clue what his decisions are going to do to the economy. Case in point, after the passage of obamacare, obama's chief dog washer valerie whatever was calling many companies, and insisting they were all republican CEO's only looking to give his highness a black eye. When Waxman, Stupak et al started making noise about hearings, they got some advice from people who actually UNDERSTOOD business and regulation, and they nixed the hearings right quick. Because they truly thought the crap they were doing would lower costs. They do not understand or don't believe what the CBO and other analysts are saying. He's incompetent as any president in a long, long time. It was an American idol election and the idiots voted for him because he was cool and hip, and the republicans were stinking up the joint.