2011 Mock Draft (first 16 picks)

[Tford]

1. Carolina - Nick Fairley 4-3 DT/3-4 DE Auburn

 

A DT first overall? Fairley ends end being Carolina's silver medal after Andrew Luck tore their hearts out and stomped on them on his way back to Stanford. Those who watch Auburn and saw the BCS national championship know how much of an impact Fairley has on a defense. With Ron Rivera taking the reins in Carolina, you have to wonder if Fairley's ability to play a solid 5-technique DE as well might play into his drafting.

 

2. Denver - Patrick Peterson CB LSU

 

Champ Bailey is a free agent and has made no secret about his desire to move to safety to prolong his career. Perrish Cox might find himself behind bars for next season. The Broncos look to be forced into taking a corner here. Tough to say what John Elway will do here though.

 

3. Buffalo Bills - Da'Quan Bowers 4-3 DE Clemson

 

This pick really depends on what defensive philosophy the Bills run next season. If the Bills run a 4-3 next year, I think Bowers is the pick, especially if he blows the doors off of the combine. If the Bills opt to run a 3-4, I think that Rob Quinn or Marcel Dareus gets a look here. But for now, Bowers gets the nod.

 

4. Cincinnati Bengals - AJ Green WR Georgia

 

TO is gone. Ocho is likely on his last year with the team and is rapidly declining. Marvin Lewis appears to be committed to Carson Palmer. Many believe that the Bengals go defensive line because this is likely Antwan Odom's last year with the team but I like the players they added in last couple years on the D-line. Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap both look to be serviceable players in the NFL. The temptation of a talent like Green paired with underwhelming young talent at WR sees Cincinnati take the young Georgia wideout at 4.

 

5. Arizona Cardinals - Robert Quinn 3-4 OLB UNC

 

Joey Porter and Clark Haggans just didn't seem to scare people as much as James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley do. You know that just doesn't sit well with Coach Whisenhunt. Robert Quinn projects to be the top tweener in the draft and the Cardinals are happy to grab him here. I'm just not sold that a quarterback is the play here. I think that the Cardinals sign a free agent QB or trade for one. McNabb, Volek or an Orton trade come to mind.

 

6. Cleveland Browns - Marcus Dareus 4-3 DT/3-4 DE Alabama

 

Dareus fits perfectly into a 3-4 defense that struggled on the line this year. Robaire Smith was hurt early in the season and anyone that was used to replace him failed to deliver. If the Browns scrap the 3-4 with Mangini's departure, I look for the Browns to trade done and take a run at Julio Jones to give Colt McCoy a weapon on the outside.

 

7. San Francisco 49ers - Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri

 

I really wanted to put Ryan Mallett here because the guy is a freak physically and has an absolute cannon of an arm. But his footwork is weak and the guy is an absolute statue in the pocket. I expect scouts to nitpick a bit and the 49ers probably want a little more mobility out of their QB. I personally don't like Gabbert as I find him a little inaccurate and his work ethic is not as high as I'd like to see for a signalcaller but I expect that he will end up being the first QB off of the board.

8. Tennessee Titans - Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas

 

Like I said previously, physical freak, huge arm, 6'7" tall. Can't move an inch in the pocket. But for a team who has blocked for Kerry Collins for the last few years, I suspect that will be considerably less of an issue. I also expect the Titans to be one of the few teams that will actually try to season their QB for a bit after the Vince Young fiasco.

 

9. Dallas Cowboys - Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska

 

For the purposes of this mock, I'll say that the Cowboys want a less injury-prone cover corner to replace Terrence Newman in a couple years. That said, taking Prince here isn't the best move for the Cowboys. I fully expect then to trade down from this pick.

10. Washington Redskins - Jake Locker QB Washington

 

The Redskins need a QB. I refuse to believe that Rex Grossman quarterbacks this team next year. Shanahan values the lone senior QB with a first round grade in the draft despite a weak 2010 season. Locker has speed, mobility and the ability to throw the ball on the run. His accuracy struggles are well-documented but the Shanahan boys pride themselves on being able to fix it.

 

11. Houston Texans - Von Miller 3-4 OLB Texas A&M

 

Houston has to get Miller here with the announcement that Wade Phillips will be bringing the 3-4 to Houston. I expect Mario Williams to get a look at end with Okoye and Mitchell rounding out the line, leaving Brian Cushing, Connor Barwin and Antonio Smith to play OLB. Miller would be a solid addition to that defense and allow Cushing to slide inside.

 

12. Minnesota Vikings - Mike Pouncey G/C Florida

 

Minnesota is the one team I believe is just desperate enough for help at QB to reach for Newton here. But in this mock I predict that Minnesota will try to sign a veteran QB and bring along Joe Webb as their QB of the future. That said, Leslie Frazier has already gone on record as saying that he wants to find the next Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco in the offseason. But the Vikes need help running inside, Pouncey capitalizes on his brother's success and the Vikes desire to pound the ball with AP and Gerhart more next year. Pouncey is a reach here so the Vikes might be better served to trade down. Look for a team to try to trade up and get Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue here.

 

13. Detroit Lions - Akeem Ayers 4-3 OLB UCLA

 

I love this pick for the Lions. With Julian Peterson on his way out and DeAndre Levy struggling to stay healthy, getting a player like AKeem Ayers who can play every LB spot is a huge pickup.

14. St. Louis Rams - Julio Jones WR Alabama

 

I realize that this makes way too much sense to actually happen but Sam Bradford was able to do amazing things as a rookie with absolute nobodies at the wideout position. Julio Jones gives instant credibility to a pass-catching corps that has none.

 

15. Miami Dolphins - Cam Newton QB Auburn

 

Miami takes the bait and ends up with the Heisman winner. The owner wants a flashy offense for the Dolphins and Newton certainly gives them that potential. The Vince Young comparisons as far as decision-making is concerned are warranted but make no mistake, Newton can throw the ball much better than VY ever could.

 

16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Ryan Kerrigan 4-3 DE Purdue

 

I don't expect Kerrigan to last this long but the Jags happily snap him up looking for yet another piece of the puzzle in their ever-evolving quest to put Payton Manning on his back whenever they play. Kampman tore up his knee again and the Jags pass rush ended up being atrocious again last year. Kerrigan is a steal here. If a team trades up with Minnesota or Dallas to get Kerrigan, I expect the Jags to look at Brandon Harris CB Miami.

17. New England Patriots - JJ Watt 4-3 DT/3-4 DE Wisconsin

 

You and I know that there's no way that New England holds onto this pick. But assuming they do, a backup plan for Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork should be high on the list of needs.

 

18. San Diego Chargers - Martez Wilson ILB Illinois

 

If AJ Smith can't close the deal on an inside linebacker in free agency, I think Martez Wilson is the pick here. The Chargers could use an OT and WR here so if ILB is solved through FA, I expect Tyron Smith or Johnathan Baldwin to be selected. Like the OT class, this year's non-rush LB class is weak. That said, I think Wilson should be able to separate himself from the pack.

 

19. New York Giants - Tyron Smith OT USC

 

Injuries and a lack of depth tore the Giants offensive line apart last year. One of the oldest O-lines in the league, the Giants need an infusion of youth in the worst way.

 

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Aldon Smith DE Missouri

 

Smith possesses outstanding physical tools and I like Tampa Bay to pair him with Gerald McCoy to build a scary defensive line. Raheem Moore might be a temptation here but pass rush is a bigger need at this point.

 

21. Kansas City Chiefs - Justin Houston 3-4 OLB Georgia

 

Tamba Hali put up 14.5 sacks this year. His compliment on the other side Mike Vrabel? Zero. KC needs an upgrade big time.

 

22. Indianapolis Colts - Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin

 

Indy's left tackle woes have been well publicized. Incumbent Charlie Johnson is an impending free agent. Grabbing a left tackle on the draft would go a long way to keeping Peyton Manning happy and upright.

 

23. Philadelphia Eagles - Nate Solder OT Colorado

 

Solder is not the most seasoned tackle available but he has the most upside and athleticism of any of his peers. That is something that the Eagles need to keep whoever they start at QB upright. The Eagles allowed too many sacks last year and if Vick is the QB next year, the more athletic the tackle is, the better of Philly is.

 

24. New Orleans Saints - Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa

 

Alex Brown is not the answer at DE for New Orleans who struggles to generate pass rush and big plays on defense last year. Clayborn should prove to help fix that problem

Edited January 15, 2011 by Tford

[loaf]

I don't pay too much attention to college ball but I can't argue against the Browns taking a D lineman at that spot.

How good is Marcus?

[tazinib1]

I was going to do this last night. I just woke up but already I think we are at odds and thats what I love about Mock threads. You get ALOT of feedback from draftnicks. Soon as I get some food in me, I'll return.

[MustOfBeenDrunk]

I was thinking that SF grabs a FA or trades for a vet for their QB spot this year & are already thinking about how they can acquire Luck in 2012

 

They have said publicly already that their QB of the future is not on their roster now and I don't think they will hope to be as lucky as the Rams were getting a rookie that can start from the gate. So either way if they grab their future franchise QB in this draft or next they are still going to have to grad a vet QB that is ready to take the field this season.

[Tford]

I was thinking that SF grabs a FA or trades for a vet for their QB spot this year & are already thinking about how they can acquire Luck in 2012

 

They have said publicly already that their QB of the future is not on their roster now and I don't think they will hope to be as lucky as the Rams were getting a rookie that can start from the gate. So either way if they grab their future franchise QB in this draft or next they are still going to have to grad a vet QB that is ready to take the field this season.

 

I hear you and where, McNabb/Orton etc sign is going to be a big determination on which teams take QBs or not.

 

I see teams that have potential to take QBs as follows:

 

Carolina (probably passes due to no QBs being worthy of 1.01, Clausen on the roster)

Buffalo (Fitzpatrick might get the reins for good)

Arizona

Cleveland (I doubt it, but there's potential)

San Francisco

Tennessee (Collins might start week 1 but they need a future QB)

Washington (No way Grossman stays the starter)

Minnesota (Webb the week 1 starter?)

Miami (Will Henne get his job back?)

 

There are only so many FAs available. I fully expect at least 4 QBs get drafted in the first round.

[Caveman_Nick]

I hear you and where, McNabb/Orton etc sign is going to be a big determination on which teams take QBs or not.

 

And Kolb. Philly will trade him if the price is right.

[tazinib1]

1. Carolina - Nick Fairley 4-3 DT/3-4 DE Auburn

 

A DT first overall? Fairley ends end being Carolina's silver medal after Andrew Luck tore their hearts out and stomped on them on his way back to Stanford. Those who watch Auburn and saw the BCS national championship know how much of an impact Fairley has on a defense. With Ron Rivera taking the reins in Carolina, you have to wonder if Fairley's ability to play a solid 5-technique DE as well might play into his drafting.

 

 

In light of Ron Rivera taking over the reigns in Carolina, Fairley is a strong pick who played himself into a top 4 pick during the title game. I think they are crazy if they don't go QB. Bowers is another guy that Rivera is sure to covet and has more than 1 year of dominance to assess the transition to the NFL than Fairely. Bowers is a pure pash rusher from the DE position and will imediatley pay off dividends. If they do go QB, Blaine Gabbert or Ryan Mallett is worthy..but my gut says they take the best player in the draft. AJ Green

 

2. Denver - Patrick Peterson CB LSU

Champ Bailey is a free agent and has made no secret about his desire to move to safety to prolong his career. Perrish Cox might find himself behind bars for next season. The Broncos look to be forced into taking a corner here. Tough to say what John Elway will do here though.

 

Agreed

 

3. Buffalo Bills - Da'Quan Bowers 4-3 DE Clemson

 

This pick really depends on what defensive philosophy the Bills run next season. If the Bills run a 4-3 next year, I think Bowers is the pick, especially if he blows the doors off of the combine. If the Bills opt to run a 3-4, I think that Rob Quinn or Marcel Dareus gets a look here. But for now, Bowers gets the nod.

 

The loser of Fairley/Bowers goes to Buffalo

 

4. Cincinnati Bengals - AJ Green WR Georgia

 

TO is gone. Ocho is likely on his last year with the team and is rapidly declining. Marvin Lewis appears to be committed to Carson Palmer. Many believe that the Bengals go defensive line because this is likely Antwan Odom's last year with the team but I like the players they added in last couple years on the D-line. Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap both look to be serviceable players in the NFL. The temptation of a talent like Green paired with underwhelming young talent at WR sees Cincinnati take the young Georgia wideout at 4.

 

Agreed. No way AJ should fall this far and the Bengals take the best player off the board at this point

 

5. Arizona Cardinals - Robert Quinn 3-4 OLB UNC

 

Joey Porter and Clark Haggans just didn't seem to scare people as much as James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley do. You know that just doesn't sit well with Coach Whisenhunt. Robert Quinn projects to be the top tweener in the draft and the Cardinals are happy to grab him here. I'm just not sold that a quarterback is the play here. I think that the Cardinals sign a free agent QB or trade for one. McNabb, Volek or an Orton trade come to mind.

 

The loser of Gabbert or Mallett is the pick. Don't be at all surprised if Cam Newton shoots up the boards and becomes the 1st QB taken off the board either...I'm not a believer, but I'm also not an NFL executive :sigh:. Arizona needs a franchise QB in a bad way and either of these guys is a good building block

 

6. Cleveland Browns - Marcus Dareus 4-3 DT/3-4 DE Alabama

 

Dareus fits perfectly into a 3-4 defense that struggled on the line this year. Robaire Smith was hurt early in the season and anyone that was used to replace him failed to deliver. If the Browns scrap the 3-4 with Mangini's departure, I look for the Browns to trade done and take a run at Julio Jones to give Colt McCoy a weapon on the outside.

 

Agreed

 

7. San Francisco 49ers - Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri

 

I really wanted to put Ryan Mallett here because the guy is a freak physically and has an absolute cannon of an arm. But his footwork is weak and the guy is an absolute statue in the pocket. I expect scouts to nitpick a bit and the 49ers probably want a little more mobility out of their QB. I personally don't like Gabbert as I find him a little inaccurate and his work ethic is not as high as I'd like to see for a signalcaller but I expect that he will end up being the first QB off of the board.

 

Loser of the Gabbert/Mallett/Newton battle

 

8. Tennessee Titans - Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas

 

Like I said previously, physical freak, huge arm, 6'7" tall. Can't move an inch in the pocket. But for a team who has blocked for Kerry Collins for the last few years, I suspect that will be considerably less of an issue. I also expect the Titans to be one of the few teams that will actually try to season their QB for a bit after the Vince Young fiasco.

 

Jay Locker, welcome to Tennessee

 

9. Dallas Cowboys - Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska

 

For the purposes of this mock, I'll say that the Cowboys want a less injury-prone cover corner to replace Terrence Newman in a couple years. That said, taking Prince here isn't the best move for the Cowboys. I fully expect then to trade down from this pick.

 

The Boys simply cannot pass on the best LB in this draft and take OLB Robert Quinn

 

10. Washington Redskins - Jake Locker QB Washington

 

The Redskins need a QB. I refuse to believe that Rex Grossman quarterbacks this team next year. Shanahan values the lone senior QB with a first round grade in the draft despite a weak 2010 season. Locker has speed, mobility and the ability to throw the ball on the run. His accuracy struggles are well-documented but the Shanahan boys pride themselves on being able to fix it.

 

Again, assuming the top 3 QB's are off the board, Rat Face will take a guy who is shooting up the boards. DE JJ Watt

 

11. Houston Texans - Von Miller 3-4 OLB Texas A&M

 

Houston has to get Miller here with the announcement that Wade Phillips will be bringing the 3-4 to Houston. I expect Mario Williams to get a look at end with Okoye and Mitchell rounding out the line, leaving Brian Cushing, Connor Barwin and Antonio Smith to play OLB. Miller would be a solid addition to that defense and allow Cushing to slide inside.

 

I like this pick as well but lets remember who had the worst pass defense in the NFL last year. If he is available, CB Brandon Harris fits the bill

 

12. Minnesota Vikings - Mike Pouncey G/C Florida

 

Minnesota is the one team I believe is just desperate enough for help at QB to reach for Newton here. But in this mock I predict that Minnesota will try to sign a veteran QB and bring along Joe Webb as their QB of the future. That said, Leslie Frazier has already gone on record as saying that he wants to find the next Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco in the offseason. But the Vikes need help running inside, Pouncey capitalizes on his brother's success and the Vikes desire to pound the ball with AP and Gerhart more next year. Pouncey is a reach here so the Vikes might be better served to trade down. Look for a team to try to trade up and get Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue here.

 

I'll stop at the Vikings for now.

 

13. Detroit Lions - Akeem Ayers 4-3 OLB UCLA

 

I love this pick for the Lions. With Julian Peterson on his way out and DeAndre Levy struggling to stay healthy, getting a player like AKeem Ayers who can play every LB spot is a huge pickup.

14. St. Louis Rams - Julio Jones WR Alabama

 

I realize that this makes way too much sense to actually happen but Sam Bradford was able to do amazing things as a rookie with absolute nobodies at the wideout position. Julio Jones gives instant credibility to a pass-catching corps that has none.

 

15. Miami Dolphins - Cam Newton QB Auburn

 

Miami takes the bait and ends up with the Heisman winner. The owner wants a flashy offense for the Dolphins and Newton certainly gives them that potential. The Vince Young comparisons as far as decision-making is concerned are warranted but make no mistake, Newton can throw the ball much better than VY ever could.

 

16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Ryan Kerrigan 4-3 DE Purdue

 

I don't expect Kerrigan to last this long but the Jags happily snap him up looking for yet another piece of the puzzle in their ever-evolving quest to put Payton Manning on his back whenever they play. Kampman tore up his knee again and the Jags pass rush ended up being atrocious again last year. Kerrigan is a steal here. If a team trades up with Minnesota or Dallas to get Kerrigan, I expect the Jags to look at Brandon Harris CB Miami.

Edited January 14, 2011 by tazinib1

[MTSuper7]

First off, thank you for this, Tford... I love draft analysis!

 

Random thoughts:

 

-I wouldn't be surprised if the Texans trade up to get Amukamara. They really need help in their secondary. And sitting at 11, they theoretically won't need to jump up more than a couple/few spot to get him (and you allude to Dallas possibly trading down, so this is very realistic).

-I don't think the Broncos end up with Peterson. Everyone else seems to think that, but I think there is a decent chance that Carolina drafts A.J. Green (they are in HUGH need of a playmaker, despite the QB issues - look how Calvin Johnson has fared with largely meh at QB in his career). If this happens, Fairley drops to Denver (and they'd take him over Peterson).

-You allude to it, and I can see it: Cam Newton in Viking purple.

-I think Blaine Gabbert falls on draft day. The hype machine has been working overtime on him, but I don't see him in the top 20 personally. I won't be surprised if Mallett, Locker, and Newton are all drafted ahead of him.

-This is the weakest OL class I can remember in quite a while. A lot of mocks have zero offensive linemen taken in the first half of the first round. No obvious maulers here. I doubt Pouncey is they first OL drafted.

[piratesownninjas]

Dear Taz,

Jay Locker?

[tazinib1]

Dear Taz,

Jay Locker?

Yep

Edited January 15, 2011 by tazinib1

[SLAYER]

Yep

 

Slow down on the booze, son.

[Tford]

I'll get to the last 16 picks tonight sometime.

[kpholmes]

Dear Taz,

Jay Locker?

Yep

Slow down on the booze, son.

It's no secret to any Huddle vet that come Friday afternoon, Taz is already a goner.

[tazinib1]

It's no secret to any Huddle vet that come Friday afternoon, Taz is already a goner.

 

This is true....but lets remember here for a second. The top 10 teams. Ya with me?

 

4 out of the top 10 will draft a QB...if you know the draft, next year's crop is crap. They have to draft them now...ya think it's a joke? And I just came home from the bar, but I digress, I'm right. It's cool if you don't agree, that's what a mock is for.

[piratesownninjas]

This is true....but lets remember here for a second. The top 10 teams. Ya with me?

 

4 out of the top 10 will draft a QB...if you know the draft, next year's crop is crap. They have to draft them now...ya think it's a joke? And I just came home from the bar, but I digress, I'm right. It's cool if you don't agree, that's what a mock is for.

Jake?

[Timmypg]

Am I the only person that thinks this is a weak QB class & there is no way 4 go that early?

[tazinib1]

Am I the only person that thinks this is a weak QB class & there is no way 4 go that early?

Nope