Seahawks and Kolb

[Jackass]

Just a few gut feelings I have based on what I've seen and heard from Carroll and Schneider so far....

 

Matt Hasselbeck isn't coming back. Just about every overpriced veteran that they inherited has been given his walking papers to date. These guys are cleaning house and getting cheap and young. If they could get Matt cheap and for 1-2 years, it would be a possibility, but the Seahawks front office is looking for players whose best football is in front of them, and they aren't in the business of overpaying for veterans at this point. I can't see them paying Hasselbeck anywhere near the 3-4 years 25-30 million that he wants. He's not worth that kind of money and they know it. If they really wanted Matt to come back, they would have worked out something before the CBA expired. They had time. Now, Matt may end up on this team if he lowers his terms quite a bit, but I actually think that Carroll and Schneider are fairly convinced that Whitehurst is going to be their starter this year. He either turns into an NFL QB and they look like geniuses, or they get to take a QB at the top of next year's draft. Either way, Matt Hasselbeck helps their future none, and they are more concerned about the long term future of the franchise than catering to the least knowledgeable fanbase in the NFL.

 

I don't think Kolb fits their mold either. I might not know enough about him, but Carroll heavily recruited strong-armed QB's in college, and Whitehurst, who as mentioned they gave up a good chunk of change for, is best known for his arm strength . I wouldn't put that high on the list of Kolb's traits.

 

I think Carroll and Schneider want to find "their" guy, not Andy Reid's guy. The Kolb thing could be a pretty significant stamp, but there are ways to be bolder.

 

I think most of this talk comes from the fact that Arizona, according to rumors I heard on John Clayton's radio show, has been cooling on the Kolb front, and Philly is trying to drum something up. Of course the Seahawks really need a QB, so this may be completely legit, but my gut tells me it isn't.

 

I agree with a lot of what you wrote. Even though they made the playoffs last year, they're still in rebuilding mode and there doesn't seem much point in bringing Hass back so they can go 8-8 or whatever. I don't see Whitehurst as the answer but if they think there's a shot for him to be decent they should start him for some games.

[detlef]

Exactly.

 

Of course it's on a case-by-case basis.

 

For instance, if I valued a guy as a 2nd round/late 1st round talent I wouldn't be interested in throwing a 3rd in.

But if I valued a guy as a mid-1st or higher talent(obviously a highly coveted player at that value) I'm not walking away over a 3rd round pick.

 

Plus we're talking about a QB here, and I guess the QB position is by definition a "difference maker"... so in that case, if I believe in my evaluation process, I'm prepared to offer a bit more than the strict value I may have in mind.

 

But it's fluid, it's a negotiation, and everyone's gonna be hotter on some players than others, regardless of position.

But that's not what was said. What was said was, "if he's worth a 1st, then he's worth a 1st and a 3rd". As if the 3rd is a throw-in pick. And a 3rd most certainly is not.

 

Sure, if you're absolutely sold on the guy, then he's worth a 1st and a 3rd. That means he's worth more than a 1st. In this case, if you can get him for "only" a first, then you'd consider that a bargain, because you were prepared to give up a 3rd as well. If, on the other hand, you see him as having a late first/early 2nd pedigree (which was both where he went and where he was expected to go), who's done little to move the needle either way in terms of proving he deserved to be ranked higher or lower, but has the advantage of being more ready to go than a guy who you'd be picking at that spot, that means you should be willing to spend a 1st rounder. And, considering where he was taken, basically any first round pick you give up for him is going to be a higher price than what Philly spent on him, because he went 36th overall.

 

So, the point being, it is certainly an understandable stance to say he's worth exactly a #1 pick and no more. That wouldn't even be playing hardball because I'm sure there are those who think he's not even worth that. So, why should it be assumed that, if you think he's worth a 1, he must be worth more than that?

[detlef]

come on det, you know that's not what's being said. No one is saying to go into negotiations and give whatever the other side wants. But according to the chart, a mid-first is worth about a 1000 "points". A mid third is worth about 100 points. If you really thought a QB was worth a 1000, then you must think he's capable of a being a franchise or near-franchise leader. So would you really walk away from giving 10% more? I'm not saying to voluntarily give it away, of course get the best deal that you can.

 

But if you think he's that good, get him, yeah?

Say you like a house and you've decided you're prepared to spend $300K. You didn't just arrive on that number arbitrarily. You looked at comps, you factored in a little extra because you really like the neighborhood and schools. Technically, to someone totally impartial, it's probably only worth $280, but there's reasons why the house would be perfect for you, so you're ready to overspend a bit. So, you really want the house and, thus are prepared to spend $300K even though you could likely find a house that fits your needs for less. But you really want this house, and that's why you're prepared to stretch your price range to $300K.

 

It hits the market at $330K. Do you stretch again? But you already pushed a bit. You already built some "I really want this house" into your budget of $300K. Are you going to push it another $30K? It's only 10%.

[Bronco Billy]

That's not exactly a fair question.

 

 

Well, geez, I sure didn't mean to be unfair. You really are a piece of work.

[BearBroncos]

Say you like a house and you've decided you're prepared to spend $300K. You didn't just arrive on that number arbitrarily. You looked at comps, you factored in a little extra because you really like the neighborhood and schools. Technically, to someone totally impartial, it's probably only worth $280, but there's reasons why the house would be perfect for you, so you're ready to overspend a bit. So, you really want the house and, thus are prepared to spend $300K even though you could likely find a house that fits your needs for less. But you really want this house, and that's why you're prepared to stretch your price range to $300K.

 

It hits the market at $330K. Do you stretch again? But you already pushed a bit. You already built some "I really want this house" into your budget of $300K. Are you going to push it another $30K? It's only 10%.

 

If I could take that 30 additional K I over spent and turn around and get a 50 K return, yeah, I would do it in a flash. I like your analogy, but I'm not sure it's suited for this type of argument. A Kolb (which I personally think will bust) could take the franchise to the next level. In revenue, that's like doubling down and hitting that needed ace.

 

But to your point, I am in agreement that a 1st and a 3rd puts your team in a worse position if (and when) Kolb was to fail miserably.

[detlef]

 

Well, geez, I sure didn't mean to be unfair. You really are a piece of work.

Sorry, forgot who I was dealing with.

 

How 'bout this?

 

That's actually a stupid question and one that no GM worth a crap should be asking themselves when the decide if they want to acquire Kolb. Because, obviously he's not already a top 10 QB in the league. The question is, can he be.

 

After all, recent history has shown that, if you want a top QB, you're pretty much going to have to spend a top 30ish pick on one. There are precious few examples in the league today who do not fit that mold. So, do you spend that pick on acquiring Kolb, or do you spend that pick on a rookie? Those are pretty much your options.

 

And the bold statement that I felt you were making was that by labeling him "mediocre at best" you were saying that was his ceiling was certainly lower than top 12.

 

Which, is basically what I explained.

 

Better?

Edited July 6, 2011 by detlef

[detlef]

If I could take that 30 additional K I over spent and turn around and get a 50 K return, yeah, I would do it in a flash. I like your analogy, but I'm not sure it's suited for this type of argument. A Kolb (which I personally think will bust) could take the franchise to the next level. In revenue, that's like doubling down and hitting that needed ace.

 

But to your point, I am in agreement that a 1st and a 3rd puts your team in a worse position if (and when) Kolb was to fail miserably.

But the assumption is, that is highly unlikely. After all, it's not like everyone is prepared to spend even $300K, so why would they pay $350?

 

Like I've said before, he's a guy who was graded to go and ultimately went, about where he did. At pick #36. So far, he's got very few games under his belt, so it's pretty hard to say, one way or the other whether he should have gone sooner or later. What you do have over a guy that you could take at about that pick, say Dalton or Kaeperneck is that he's already been groomed.

 

Thus, it's safe to say he's worthy of a pick higher than #35. That is, unless you're a GM who actually is not all that impressed with what you've seen from him. Then you've seen enough to know that you'd actually rather take your chances on a complete unknown. So, I would think that giving up a #1 would already be paying a bit of a premium (which would correlate to spending $300K on a house that others may only value at $280).

 

After all, any rookie QB could take your franchise to the next level, and it doesn't even need to be a guy taken as a top 5 pick. The QB you take in the 1st round could be Big Ben or Joe Flacco or Drew Brees or Josh Freeman or Aaron Rodgers.

 

And, again, if you're convinced that Kolb is just the guy for you, then you've already decided he's worth a 1st and a 3rd. And that's fine as well. But, bringing it back to my house comparison, that's basically saying that you're going in ready to spend $330, not $300. That you'd love it if you could get $300, but you're so convinced that the neighborhood is about to pop, that you actually think $330 is fair price and one that you've already come to grips with paying.

 

What that doesn't mean, however, is that anyone who is prepared to spend $300 must also be automatically prepared to spend $330. And that was the argument.

Edited July 6, 2011 by detlef

[Bronco Billy]

And the bold statement that I felt you were making was that by labeling him "mediocre at best" you were saying that was his ceiling was certainly lower than top 12.

 

Hardly a bold statement given what Kolb has shown to date in a dynamic passing offense. The guy was handed the keys to run Reid's offense and promptly dropped them. But now you expect him to realistically be top 12 in another O, one that is almost sure to an absolute to be lesser than the PHI passing game?

 

Hard to believe you make these kinds of projections and then act condescending on top of it.

[detlef]

Hardly a bold statement given what Kolb has shown to date in a dynamic passing offense. The guy was handed the keys to run Reid's offense and promptly dropped them. But now you expect him to realistically be top 12 in another O, one that is almost sure to an absolute to be lesser than the PHI passing game?

 

Hard to believe you make these kinds of projections and then act condescending on top of it.

For starters, I'm not the one making predictions. That's you. You're the one saying he's "mediocre at best". I'm saying that's a bold assumption. That the jury is certainly still out on his ceiling. I've merely said that he seems to be a safer way to go than using a similar pick on a rookie QB, thus, that a first round pick seems like a reasonable price to pay for him.

 

None the less, how exactly did he "drop the keys". Like I said, in general, he's done little to show that he's either the next coming or a bust given the sample size. He's shown flashes of great play and that he still has some learning to do (or may not be a long term answer). How many QBs have done markedly better in the first 7 or so starts than him?

 

Everyone is tripping over themselves in heaping praise on Sam Bradford (and rightly so to a degree), but it's not like he's been any more consistent or productive than Kolb has been.

 

Sam Bradford was 25th in passer rating this last year. Does that make him "mediocre at best"? Should St. Louis be bummed they took him because he's yet to ascend to the ranks of the top 12 QBs in the league right now? After all, assuming we're not talking about potential, there are likely 12 guys I'd take over Bradford to run my team next year. Does that make him mediocre?

 

Further, according to Philly fans, that O-line was sort a shambles, which may be why Vick did better than Kolb. So, for all their weapons, the fact that he could not run like Vick, could have meant that he was not equipped to exploit them.

Edited July 6, 2011 by detlef

[Avernus]

But the assumption is, that is highly unlikely. After all, it's not like everyone is prepared to spend even $300K, so why would they pay $350?

 

Like I've said before, he's a guy who was graded to go and ultimately went, about where he did. At pick #36. So far, he's got very few games under his belt, so it's pretty hard to say, one way or the other whether he should have gone sooner or later. What you do have over a guy that you could take at about that pick, say Dalton or Kaeperneck is that he's already been groomed.

 

Thus, it's safe to say he's worthy of a pick higher than #35. That is, unless you're a GM who actually is not all that impressed with what you've seen from him. Then you've seen enough to know that you'd actually rather take your chances on a complete unknown. So, I would think that giving up a #1 would already be paying a bit of a premium (which would correlate to spending $300K on a house that others may only value at $280).

 

After all, any rookie QB could take your franchise to the next level, and it doesn't even need to be a guy taken as a top 5 pick. The QB you take in the 1st round could be Big Ben or Joe Flacco or Drew Brees or Josh Freeman or Aaron Rodgers.

 

And, again, if you're convinced that Kolb is just the guy for you, then you've already decided he's worth a 1st and a 3rd. And that's fine as well. But, bringing it back to my house comparison, that's basically saying that you're going in ready to spend $330, not $300. That you'd love it if you could get $300, but you're so convinced that the neighborhood is about to pop, that you actually think $330 is fair price and one that you've already come to grips with paying.

 

What that doesn't mean, however, is that anyone who is prepared to spend $300 must also be automatically prepared to spend $330. And that was the argument.

 

in this case it appears Seattle values Kolb at around $300k and is willing to pay $330k

[Avernus]

Hardly a bold statement given what Kolb has shown to date in a dynamic passing offense. The guy was handed the keys to run Reid's offense and promptly dropped them. But now you expect him to realistically be top 12 in another O, one that is almost sure to an absolute to be lesser than the PHI passing game?

 

Hard to believe you make these kinds of projections and then act condescending on top of it.

 

Kolb didn't drop the keys, the OL threw him on the ground...he did well when he had adequate protection.....the OL was pretty bad and that's why they went with Vick because he was elusive and then he flourished and far exceeded expectations...

 

this coming from someone who watched the Eagles games....true story...he might be overrated right now, but it wouldn't be far fetched to value him at a 1st because he's a young QB who was rated a low 1st/high 2nd when he was drafted and showed some flashes while being in what is one of the most complicated offenses to learn under....

 

the Eagles OL was pretty bad to start last season and I even said that at the time I liked Vick for the immediate future....until the OL was built up to possible mediocrity from jailbreak status...and that I liked Kolb for the future...

Edited July 6, 2011 by Avernus

[Avernus]

Further, according to Philly fans, that O-line was sort a shambles, which may be why Vick did better than Kolb. So, for all their weapons, the fact that he could not run like Vick, could have meant that he was not equipped to exploit them.

 

[i_am_the_swammi]

The guy was handed the keys to run Reid's offense and promptly dropped them.

 

When did he do that? You mean the game he got concussed and lost his job to the guy who was runner-up for MVP?

 

BTW, you do know that, barring the two games where (1) he got hurt and (2) he played with all back-ups the final game of the year, that he put up top-12 worthy stats?

[Bronco Billy]

Sam Bradford was 25th in passer rating this last year. Does that make him "mediocre at best"? Should St. Louis be bummed they took him because he's yet to ascend to the ranks of the top 12 QBs in the league right now? After all, assuming we're not talking about potential, there are likely 12 guys I'd take over Bradford to run my team next year. Does that make him mediocre?

 

Here we go again. So you think making comaprisons between a rookie QB in STL and a 4 yr vet in PHI makes any kind of statement at all? Kolb should have been coming into his own, having been groomed to be the starter for 3 yrs and then being handed the starting job when Mcnabb was sent packing. Instead he put up terrible numbers with the exception of the ATL game last year as he played his way not only out of the starting spot but also apparently out of town. Reid sees he made a mistake and misjudged Kolb, and now is sending him packing before his value drops too far.

 

Some team that doesn't have anywhere near the passing juggernaut O of PHI is going to get duped into picking up Kolb for a hefty price and will see what this guy really is - mediocre. Kolb has a weak arm and makes too many judgment errors. That's a bad combination when the D gets compressed because Kolb can't throw deep down field adequately and then he throws the ball into bad spots too often.

Edited July 6, 2011 by Bronco Billy

[Avernus]

Here we go again. So you think making comaprisons between a rookie QB in STL and a 4 yr vet in PHI makes any kind of statement at all? Kolb should have been coming into his own, having been groomed to be the starter for 3 yrs and then being handed the starting job when Mcnabb was sent packing. Instead he put up terrible numbers with the exception of the ATL game last year as he played his way not only out of the starting spot but also apparently out of town. Reid sees he made a mistake and misjudged Kolb, and now is sending him packing before his value drops too far.

 

Some team that doesn't have anywhere near the passing juggernaut O of PHI is going to get duped into picking up Kolb for a hefty price and will see what this guy really is - mediocre. Kolb has a weak arm and makes too many judgment errors. That's a bad combination when the D gets compressed because Kolb can't throw deep down field adequately and then he throws the ball into bad spots too often.

 

Eagles could have had Fitz and AJ at WR and it wouldn't have mattered....Peters and Justice on the tackles were atrocious to start the year....it took Peters a good 5 weeks or so to come into his own last year and he did really well to finish the season....

 

the OL wasn't built for a pocket passer and if Kolb stayed a starter, he might have been considering retirement - yes, it was that bad...

 

I remember seeing Vick line up in shotgun and get the ball.....having to immediately spin off a lineman from the Lions and then dodge someone....he made the defense not blitz because he was so elusive....Kolb doesn't offer this....

 

as long as Seattle has a decent OL or better, we'll get to see what Kolb has...

[Bronco Billy]

When did he do that? You mean the game he got concussed and lost his job to the guy who was runner-up for MVP?

 

BTW, you do know that, barring the two games where (1) he got hurt and (2) he played with all back-ups the final game of the year, that he put up top-12 worthy stats?

 

I'd like to see you make this case. Based upon his games started, and giving Kolb the benefit of the doubt and calling the GB and WAS games 1 game for the sake of argument and putting together a full year's projected stats, and based upon the 561 attempts that PHI put up last year, Kolb would have projected to these numbers:

 

341 completions in 561 attempts

3553 yds passing

21 TDs

21 INTs

 

That would have put him #7 in pass attempts, #12 in passing yds, #16 in passing TDs, and #3 in INTs. That doesn't look like a top 12 QB to me...

 

Now put him on a team that only throws the ball 540 times like the average team does, in an offense not as QB friendly as PHI's, and tell me how he cracks the top 15 QBs in the league.

[Avernus]

I'd like to see you make this case. Based upon his games started, and giving Kolb the benefit of the doubt and calling the GB and WAS games 1 game for the sake of argument and putting together a full year's projected stats, and based upon the 561 attempts that PHI put up last year, Kolb would have projected to these numbers:

 

341 completions in 561 attempts

3553 yds passing

21 TDs

21 INTs

 

That would have put him #7 in pass attempts, #12 in passing yds, #16 in passing TDs, and #3 in INTs. That doesn't look like a top 12 QB to me...

 

Now put him on a team that only throws the ball 540 times like the average team does, in an offense not as QB friendly as PHI's, and tell me how he cracks the top 15 QBs in the league.

 

do you ignore the atrocious OL or is that not applicable in your argument?....when you talk about things like the Denver OL and such, I take your word for what it is because you clearly watch their games....

 

you should listen to the people who actually watch the Eagles games and know what the protection was like and why the Eagles absolutely had to go with Vick....but you're too heavily vested in your argument to bow out now and decide to ignore things like facts so you reach by going off projected numbers which is really grasping for straws.....seriously...

[bostonsoxandy]

because Andy Reid does well with QB's and Kolb is probably one of the best talents he's had at QB regardless of production....he has a few years of one of the most complicated systems under his belt...

 

I would put Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, and Brett Favre (he was the QB coach in 97) far far ahead of Kolb's talent level. And that is really the only QB's he has ever worked with- it seems like talent has just been given to him with Vick and Favre (he became QB coach the year after they won the SB). I'll give you he developed McNabb albeit he's was the 2nd overall pick in the draft, but I don't see how that makes Kolb more valuable

 

And how do you claim that Kolb is "one of the best talents he's had at QB" even though he's had Vick, McNabb, and Favre, and that's all he really has ever had.

[Avernus]

I would put Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, and Brett Favre (he was the QB coach in 97) far far ahead of Kolb's talent level. And that is really the only QB's he has ever worked with- it seems like talent has just been given to him with Vick and Favre (he became QB coach the year after they won the SB). I'll give you he developed McNabb albeit he's was the 2nd overall pick in the draft, but I don't see how that makes Kolb more valuable

 

And how do you claim that Kolb is "one of the best talents he's had at QB" even though he's had Vick, McNabb, and Favre, and that's all he really has ever had.

 

McNabb had great running ability but I was saying he was overrated before Limbaugh said it....he said what I was thinking and I don't find those remarks racist at all....Limbaugh might have been a racist, but the NFL being desirous of a successful black QB wasn't far fetched at all...

 

I think Kolb can be a better QB that McNabb and you take Vick who is starting to flourish along with a HoF QB.....I'm still not sure what you're trying to say....

 

McNabb was very inaccurate and Vick was worse in Atlanta...but flourished in a pass happy offense....

 

you do realize how important a decent OL is? (something McNabb had pretty much his entire stint here) you can't judge Kolb yet until he gets to start and if he never gets an at least mediocre OL to play under, then he won't last for us to know anyways...

[Bronco Billy]

Let's look at Kolb's numbers in PHI as compared to other PHI QBs since Reid made them a premier passing O in the NFL (PHI became a top 10 passing team in 2004 and has been a top 10 passing team every year since then). These numbers include the stats of McNabb and Vick, but also include guys like AJ Feeley, Koy Detmer, and Mike McMahon as well as a very aged Jeff Garcia.

 

Passing numbers for PHI since 2004 (sans Kolb):

 

Comp Percentage: 59.6%

Yards per attempt: 7.33 ypa

TDs: 175

Ints: 81

Passer rating: 82.1

 

Kolb in PHI:

 

Comp Percentage: 60.8%

Yards per attempt: 6.53 ypa

TDs: 11

Ints: 14

Passer rating: 74.0

 

So what we see is a completion percentage that is slightly higher; and ypa that is 11% lower, a TD/INT ratio that is 64% lower, and a QB rating that is 10% lower.

 

I don't see where anyone projects this guy in a different O to be a franchise QB - not with what he did under Reid in PHI compared to what all other QBs did in the same system.

[Avernus]

[Bronco Billy]

 

According to Football Outsiders, PIT had a worse pass blocking O line than PHI, and I don't see anyone in PIT making excuses and Roethlisberger still managed to put up a very good year.

[detlef]

According to Football Outsiders, PIT had a worse pass blocking O line than PHI, and I don't see anyone in PIT making excuses and Roethlisberger still managed to put up a very good year.

Is your point that Big Ben is a better QB right now than Kolb is? I honestly doubt you'd get many people to argue against that statement.

[Bronco Billy]

Is your point that Big Ben is a better QB right now than Kolb is? I honestly doubt you'd get many people to argue against that statement.

 

The obvious point being that Avernus is using a poor O-line as an excuse for Kolb's poor performance. Franchise QBs manage to find a way to succeed despite that - like Roethlisberger and Vick last year or Rodgers the year before (among others). People who irrationally love mediocre QBs use it as an excuse when all other evidence points out their shortcomings.

[detlef]

The obvious point being that Avernus is using a poor O-line as an excuse for Kolb's poor performance. Franchise QBs manage to find a way to succeed despite that - like Roethlisberger and Vick last year or Rodgers the year before (among others). People who irrationally love mediocre QBs use it as an excuse when all other evidence points out their shortcomings.

I guess I'd prefer to using a bad O-line combined with the fact that these were among his first starts as an excuse for why he didn't light the world on fire. And, once again, the onus is not on us to prove that he'll certainly be among the 10 best QBs in years to come, because nobody is saying that.

 

Rather that, he's likely a better bet than anyone you could have drafted in the 1st round this year or acquired via trade or FA prior to the start of this year. Because that's what's on the table. Forget talking about guys who are obviously not available, who would you rather have to fill your QB spot among those players that you could realistically acquire?

 

Not to mention that the three players you mention are all specifically better suited to deal with a shaky O-line. Vick and Rodgers because they're both very agile and Big Ben because he's enormous and really hard to bring down. None the less, those are also three QBs who I don't think anyone would argue aren't more coveted than Kolb right now.

Edited July 6, 2011 by detlef