Jimmy Graham

[rattsass]

(shameless self promotion alert)

 

I don't know where he should be drafted, I'm just glad I used the last pick (#36) of my rookie draft on him last year. I had just one pick in that draft and my leaguemates let him slide all the way to the end. I felt like I had just robbed a bank. I can't wait until he blows up so I can beat them over the head with that memory. Good times. Good times

[rattsass]

I'm just remembering a young player named Antonio Gates, who Graham is compared to ability-wise. He was a rookie in 03 with limited action, Gates had less than half the production of Graham had last year. But you could see that the guy was going to be a player. At least I did.

 

In 2004 Gates was a TE sleeper much long the same lines as Graham is now. I drafted him in the 9th round in his second year, I guess a lot of people thought that was pricey for a guy that had played in 11 games as a pro, and had only played the game for a few years. Mr. Gates went on to record a monster sophomore season with 81/964/13. I won some championships that year, and it was the guy nobody wanted before my 9th round pick that did it.

 

I will agree on the surface Graham's price seems high, but if you think about it, the information age has changed the way our game is played. More informed players push values of potential sleepers. Ideally, I think Graham should be a 6th - 7th round pick in standard PPR leagues, but people that really want him are grabbing him earlier and earlier.

 

I don't know that Graham is going to pull a season like Gates did in 04, but I do know he absolutely has the potential to do so. And if you don't think so you are simply delusional.

 

BTW, some trivia: Who was the gunslinger finding the young inexperienced Gates 13 times for touchdowns in his breakout season? None other than Drew Bees.

Edited August 31, 2011 by rattsass

[Goopster24]

Good post. The guy is a beast. Would love to get him in my current draft. Saints are explosive; that said, ya never know where the ball is going. So so many options, kinda drives ya nuts.

[ttwarrior4]

love jimmy graham, in 6 fantasy leagues and got him in 3

 

got a hernandez celek in the other 3

[bushwacked]

BTW, some trivia: Who was the gunslinger finding the young inexperienced Gates 13 times for touchdowns in his breakout season? None other than Drew Bees.

 

I'm guessing this wet dream won't play itself out again. I remember thinking Shockey may get a vast improvement out of Brees. Never happened. While Shockey might not be the best team mate he wasn't an athletic slouch. Brees is a different QB than back from his San Diego days and I'm not sure I can name one legitimate WR he had then.. Keenan McCardell?

 

If Brees hits Graham for a bunch of targets and TD's I'll be on the surprised side. I see Graham as the Marques Colston pick over the last few years. Brees throws for five TD's and you wonder why the Saints WR/TE you drafted only got 2 catches for 20 yards. Granted, Graham is a TE, so he will probably be better value than picking up Colston in early rounds over the last couple years.

[bostonsoxandy]

I'm just remembering a young player named Antonio Gates, who Graham is compared to ability-wise. He was a rookie in 03 with limited action, Gates had less than half the production of Graham had last year. But you could see that the guy was going to be a player. At least I did.

 

In 2004 Gates was a TE sleeper much long the same lines as Graham is now. I drafted him in the 9th round in his second year, I guess a lot of people thought that was pricey for a guy that had played in 11 games as a pro, and had only played the game for a few years. Mr. Gates went on to record a monster sophomore season with 81/964/13. I won some championships that year, and it was the guy nobody wanted before my 9th round pick that did it.

 

I will agree on the surface Graham's price seems high, but if you think about it, the information age has changed the way our game is played. More informed players push values of potential sleepers. Ideally, I think Graham should be a 6th - 7th round pick in standard PPR leagues, but people that really want him are grabbing him earlier and earlier.

 

I don't know that Graham is going to pull a season like Gates did in 04, but I do know he absolutely has the potential to do so. And if you don't think so you are simply delusional.

 

BTW, some trivia: Who was the gunslinger finding the young inexperienced Gates 13 times for touchdowns in his breakout season? None other than Drew Bees.

 

 

I see what you're saying, but I have a lot of trouble buying the Gates-Graham analogy, do you really believe Graham has the POTENTIAL like you said above, to catch about 90 balls, 1000 yds, and 13 tds like Gates in 04?!? That's not only unlikely but near impossible considering how much the Saints spread it around...Brees' #1 target Marques Colston had only 1 season of over 90 catches. so I think it's very unlikely Graham can break, or reach 90.

 

Again, I like the guy from a deep sleeper standpoint but the hype is getting out of hand. He's good value if you can get him in the 8th or later. But a fifth round pick on this guy is just absurd.

[Goopster24]

I'm guessing this wet dream won't play itself out again. I remember thinking Shockey may get a vast improvement out of Brees. Never happened. While Shockey might not be the best team mate he wasn't an athletic slouch. Brees is a different QB than back from his San Diego days and I'm not sure I can name one legitimate WR he had then.. Keenan McCardell?

 

If Brees hits Graham for a bunch of targets and TD's I'll be on the surprised side. I see Graham as the Marques Colston pick over the last few years. Brees throws for five TD's and you wonder why the Saints WR/TE you drafted only got 2 catches for 20 yards. Granted, Graham is a TE, so he will probably be better value than picking up Colston in early rounds over the last couple years.

 

Great point and this has me concerned. I like the Shockey comparison; I too thought he would benefit from Brees. But something was off with him it seemed.

 

That said, this offense does drive me crazy. For upside, sure, this guy is great. But I can see both ways.

[nogohawk]

Took Vernon Davis at 6.07 and Graham at 11.04

 

ETA - my local office redraft league last night PPR 10 teams

Edited August 31, 2011 by nogohawk

[Goopster24]

Took Vernon Davis at 6.07 and Graham at 11.04

 

ETA - my local office redraft league last night PPR 10 teams

 

Love it!

[rattsass]

I see what you're saying, but I have a lot of trouble buying the Gates-Graham analogy, do you really believe Graham has the POTENTIAL like you said above, to catch about 90 balls, 1000 yds, and 13 tds like Gates in 04?!? That's not only unlikely but near impossible considering how much the Saints spread it around...Brees' #1 target Marques Colston had only 1 season of over 90 catches. so I think it's very unlikely Graham can break, or reach 90.

 

Again, I like the guy from a deep sleeper standpoint but the hype is getting out of hand. He's good value if you can get him in the 8th or later. But a fifth round pick on this guy is just absurd.

Sure he has the potential to put up those kind of numbers. Unlikely in this system true. But he is CAPABLE of doing so.

 

More realisticically I could easlily see Graham hitting 60/800/10, and that would put him right up there with all the guys that nobody thinks are overvalued in the 4th-5th rounds.

[detlef]

Sure he has the potential to put up those kind of numbers. Unlikely in this system true. But he is CAPABLE of doing so.

 

More realisticically I could easlily see Graham hitting 60/800/10, and that would put him right up there with all the guys that nobody thinks are overvalued in the 4th-5th rounds.

Look at the massively athletic TEs who have come into the league since Gates did 8 years ago. Dudes like Brent Jones are being replaced by guys who could have started at power forward for D1 B-ball teams had they not been pushed into the TE position. Like Gates, like Tony G, and now they're everywhere.

 

So, while Gates was unique in his stature and build, he's not any more. Now you've got a slew of guys who are like that. And a bunch seem on the verge of being legit fantasy studs. And Graham is just one of them. But there's also Greshem and Pettigrew, and Lewis. And there's still guys like Witten and Clark and Finley as well as Zach Miller and Winslow.

 

Sure, kid made a lovely catch in the video that Jumbo showed. Should I post the video of the great catch Dante Rosario made for Carolina in week one vs San Diego? Lot of good that did him. He's now #3 on the depth chart there. If he's even on the team.

 

And, again, Graham is a guy I had circled on my draft sheets as someone I wanted to grab. But I'm not grabbing him in the same round that dudes are taking guys who have a few years under their belt as proven threats. And that's typically the 5th and 6th rounds. No freaking way.

 

Nice story about Gates. I took him that year as well. Because he was there late.

 

ETA: more importantly, you're doing just what you were cautioning people against doing in the Hightower thread. You're building all of his upside into his price and, thus, forfeiting it.

Edited August 31, 2011 by detlef

[champ48win]

Got him in the eleventh round

 

I stole him with the 153rd selection in the 16th round. Hows that for value????

[MTSuper7]

I am a firm believer that you have to go with your gut in situations like this. I remember the hype train was in full force last year on Arian Foster after he had a monster preseason game, but it was the people who had the courage to reach for him in the 3rd-4th rounds that reaped the rewards. In other words, no guts, no glory. If you think the guy is going to put up top 5 TE numbers, then you pull the trigger as soon as the last of the "big five" is gone. This becomes easier to do if you build a solid team with your first 4-5 picks and can afford a little risk, and you can always pick a better value upside guy in the double digit rounds as insurance/backup (i.e. Greg Olsen, Jared Cook).

[rattsass]

Look at the massively athletic TEs who have come into the league since Gates did 8 years ago. Dudes like Brent Jones are being replaced by guys who could have started at power forward for D1 B-ball teams had they not been pushed into the TE position. Like Gates, like Tony G, and now they're everywhere.

 

So, while Gates was unique in his stature and build, he's not any more. Now you've got a slew of guys who are like that. And a bunch seem on the verge of being legit fantasy studs. And Graham is just one of them. But there's also Greshem and Pettigrew, and Lewis. And there's still guys like Witten and Clark and Finley as well as Zach Miller and Winslow.

 

Sure, kid made a lovely catch in the video that Jumbo showed. Should I post the video of the great catch Dante Rosario made for Carolina in week one vs San Diego? Lot of good that did him. He's now #3 on the depth chart there. If he's even on the team.

 

And, again, Graham is a guy I had circled on my draft sheets as someone I wanted to grab. But I'm not grabbing him in the same round that dudes are taking guys who have a few years under their belt as proven threats. And that's typically the 5th and 6th rounds. No freaking way.

 

Nice story about Gates. I took him that year as well. Because he was there late.

 

ETA: more importantly, you're doing just what you were cautioning people against doing in the Hightower thread. You're building all of his upside into his price and, thus, forfeiting it.

 

First of all I am offended that you mentioned Rosario and Graham in the same post, but whatever..

 

I'm not doing anything. I didn't draft Graham in the 5-6 rounds. I didn't tell anybody to draft him in those rounds. I am simply stating a fact I believe to be true, and that is that Graham is the most likely guy to hang with the elites this season. That is why people are reaching for him. He still has value as a 6th round pick if he puts up the numbers I predict. You know, when it comes to 5th round picks, (I have seen this discussed somewhere recently) there is a very high failure rate anyway. It has not been a good round for fantasy picks over the years.

 

You can't just put a stock "round#" on a guy and sayt that's where he should go. Every draft is different. Like I said before, ideally Graham should be a 7th round pick, but that boat has probably sailed. If you want him now you are looking at the 6th round. Personally I'd rather grab Witten or Gates and be done with it, and if I miss on those guys I definitely would not overpay for Graham. I agree he should NOT be taken in the same round as the elites even though I think he can potentially hang with them.

 

And I would draft Graham over Hightower even if I only had 1 running back and already had a tight end.

[detlef]

First of all I am offended that you mentioned Rosario and Graham in the same post, but whatever..

 

I'm not doing anything. I didn't draft Graham in the 5-6 rounds. I didn't tell anybody to draft him in those rounds. I am simply stating a fact I believe to be true, and that is that Graham is the most likely guy to hang with the elites this season. That is why people are reaching for him. He still has value as a 6th round pick if he puts up the numbers I predict. You know, when it comes to 5th round picks, (I have seen this discussed somewhere recently) there is a very high failure rate anyway. It has not been a good round for fantasy picks over the years.

 

You can't just put a stock "round#" on a guy and sayt that's where he should go. Every draft is different. Like I said before, ideally Graham should be a 7th round pick, but that boat has probably sailed. If you want him now you are looking at the 6th round. Personally I'd rather grab Witten or Gates and be done with it, and if I miss on those guys I definitely would not overpay for Graham. I agree he should NOT be taken in the same round as the elites even though I think he can potentially hang with them.

 

And I would draft Graham over Hightower even if I only had 1 running back and already had a tight end.

If he goes for 10 TDs, he's got value as a 3rd round pick given his position. But we don't know that.

[The Next Generation]

I am a firm believer that you have to go with your gut in situations like this. I remember the hype train was in full force last year on Arian Foster after he had a monster preseason game, but it was the people who had the courage to reach for him in the 3rd-4th rounds that reaped the rewards. In other words, no guts, no glory. If you think the guy is going to put up top 5 TE numbers, then you pull the trigger as soon as the last of the "big five" is gone. This becomes easier to do if you build a solid team with your first 4-5 picks and can afford a little risk, and you can always pick a better value upside guy in the double digit rounds as insurance/backup (i.e. Greg Olsen, Jared Cook).

 

I agree wholeheartedly!

[delfamdelfam]

Jimmy Graham or Owen Daniels? Both seem to have the same ADP but I'd take Daniels since the Saints spread the ball around so much.

[detlef]

Jimmy Graham or Owen Daniels? Both seem to have the same ADP but I'd take Daniels since the Saints spread the ball around so much.

Now, I'm certainly taking Graham over Daniels. Daniels seems to have shown what he's got and it's not that exciting. Not bad, mind you. But I'll certainly roll the dice with Graham's upside over taking a guy like Daniels.

[slainte]

Jimmy Graham or Owen Daniels? Both seem to have the same ADP but I'd take Daniels since the Saints spread the ball around so much.

 

I have both in two PPR leagues. Felt right with Daniels in the 8th and Graham in the 13th respectively two weekend ago. I reached a bit in the second draft earlier this week (can't remember where).

 

Both should perform well. I had Daniels the season he went down. This is when he was out scoring the majority of receivers. I think he's due for a resurrection, especially if Foster's injuries continue to nag him.

 

Graham has ALOT of upside. Guilty as charged, I'm a believer.

 

I think these two have the best shot of outperforming their ADPs.

Edited August 31, 2011 by slainte

[rattsass]

If he goes for 10 TDs, he's got value as a 3rd round pick given his position. But we don't know that.

No we don't know that, well, you don't know that anyway. But lets look at last year. Graham had 31 receptions on 44 targets. 365 yards and 5 tds.

 

He is going to get 5-6 targets a game this year. That should allow him to double his receptions, double his yards, and you have to know he is going to be a big end-zone target. He could blow away my predictions. I just don't see much downside. Vernon Davis has serious quarterback questions. Dallas Clark is getting old and has a busted up wing, and a busted up QB. Kellen Winslow is Kellen Winslow. And even my man Gates is a huge health gamble. Given the uncertainty abounds in the seemingly deep TE pool, I don't think reaching a bit for Graham is necessarily a bad thing.

 

There have been some players that I latched onto early, and never had a doubt about. Gates, Westbrook, and Chris Johnson come to mind. I have the same level of confidence in Graham that I had with each of those guys. Take it for what it's worth. He's gonna be huge.

[slainte]

No we don't know that, well, you don't know that anyway. But lets look at last year. Graham had 31 receptions on 44 targets. 365 yards and 5 tds.

 

He is going to get 5-6 targets a game this year. That should allow him to double his receptions, double his yards, and you have to know he is going to be a big end-zone target. He could blow away my predictions. I just don't see much downside. Vernon Davis has serious quarterback questions. Dallas Clark is getting old and has a busted up wing, and a busted up QB. Kellen Winslow is Kellen Winslow. And even my man Gates is a huge health gamble. Given the uncertainty abounds in the seemingly deep TE pool, I don't think reaching a bit for Graham is necessarily a bad thing.

 

There have been some players that I latched onto early, and never had a doubt about. Gates, Westbrook, and Chris Johnson come to mind. I have the same level of confidence in Graham that I had with each of those guys. Take it for what it's worth. He's gonna be huge.

 

All this and more.

 

Some of the 'well known' names have red flags. Outside of the position being deep this year, it was another reason to wait 'till the top five were off the board.

 

The hype train is definitely gaining more momentum, but I'd rather hop on board than pretend to ignore the aforementioned flags and get hung up on their names.

 

I can't wait for the season the start. Seems like a longer wait than usual.

 

Only then will we be able to put some of this to rest.

[detlef]

No we don't know that, well, you don't know that anyway.

[Avernus]

Jimmy Graham or Owen Daniels? Both seem to have the same ADP but I'd take Daniels since the Saints spread the ball around so much.

 

I would consider Daniels injury history....

[slainte]

I would consider Daniels injury history....

 

agreed. but if you're waiting on tight ends this year to stock up on rbs/wrs in the earlier rounds, you can get good value on him and another upside player at the position to back him up.

 

if he's on the field and healthy, he's going to get you production.

 

i do get the feeling that graham may flirt with the lead in receptions. on the other hand, how would that be possible with the amount of spread in that offense. plus, there's talk of more emphasis on the run game.

 

lots of variables, but whatever targets he loses in the receiving game, he may make up for with touchdowns.

 

i know it was just a preseason game, but five grabs for 73 yards in one half is pretty compelling.

[Thews40]

I have him on two teams already. In a TE heavy league (1 PPR TE, 0.5 PPR RB and .25 PPR WR) I had to pull at 4.06. In the ladder I got him at 7.05. The most underrated player at any position IMO this year. Brees was with Gates in SD and and Graham is the same model. Brees steps back to pass, and he knows that a monster with great hands is an option. With that height in the end zone it's money. Sometimes the cheatsheets don't have stats to predict how this year will play out, but Brees throws to whoever is open. I see Graham as one of the top three in TE's this year.

Edited September 1, 2011 by Thews40