Jimmy Graham

[CrimsonGhost]

Looking to draft him and will jump a few rounds to ensure it. Was thinking of pulling the trigger on him in round 6 to make sure it happens. Obviously the draft will dictate when i need to draft him but i don't want to miss out. Where have people been getting for him or reaching for him?

[delfamdelfam]

I've seen him usually go late 6th to early 7th round. So I would say you would have to draft him late 5th or early 6th if you really wanted him.

[Pappadoc]

I think 5th round WAY too early. There is too much talent generally on the board to take a TE who has tons of promise, but not had a full season of good production yet.

[rajncajn]

I agree as well and I'm going to get off on a tangent here but I'll explain my thinking. If Graham hurts anyone's numbers it will be Dave Thomas, but I doubt even that. Between Graham & Shockey last year there were 72 receptions, 765 yards & 8 TDs. That's a heck of a lot of receptions for the TE position & I think the touches actually drop for him, however the yardage should increase and the TD's could range between 8-10. For those looking at Graham in their draft, that would put him in the top 3... stellar return for his ADP.

 

Now, you might say that argument bodes well for the WRs and it does, but I see those touches going more towards Meach & going on the ground.

I posted this in the Moore thread, but it applies here.

[markgugs]

IMO there is absolutely no reason to reach on Graham when you can get Pettigrew 3-4 rounds later and nearly match his possible production.

[BeachBum]

IMO there is absolutely no reason to reach on Graham when you can get Pettigrew 3-4 rounds later and nearly match his possible production.

 

In HOT (12 team redraft), he was ninth TE taken (by me) at 7.05, one AFTER Pettigrew.

[markgugs]

In HOT (12 team redraft), he was ninth TE taken (by me) at 7.05, one AFTER Pettigrew.

wow

 

I was just basing my comment off the only draft I've had thus far, and Pettigrew lasted several rounds past Graham

[detlef]

Unless your league heavily rewards TEs, 5th or 6th seems way too early.

 

Situations like this remind me that people sometimes are more interested in being the guy who found the new guy than actually winning at FF. As a result, guys who appear they might be as good as the proven commodities get taken as early as the more sure bets. There's been a trend towards big, athletic TEs for some time now and yet that still hasn't resulted in a ton of highly productive guys. It's still a very hit and miss position.

 

I would love to have Graham on my team, but the hype has gotten to the point that you're now paying for all the upside he's got and possibly then some, which means he's no longer a value. Not when you can grab guys who seem to have as much going for them as he does later.

[rajncajn]

Unless your league heavily rewards TEs, 5th or 6th seems way too early.

 

Situations like this remind me that people sometimes are more interested in being the guy who found the new guy than actually winning at FF. As a result, guys who appear they might be as good as the proven commodities get taken as early as the more sure bets. There's been a trend towards big, athletic TEs for some time now and yet that still hasn't resulted in a ton of highly productive guys. It's still a very hit and miss position.

 

I would love to have Graham on my team, but the hype has gotten to the point that you're now paying for all the upside he's got and possibly then some, which means he's no longer a value. Not when you can grab guys who seem to have as much going for them as he does later.

I'm curious what your expectations are for him now that Shockey is no longer there.

[JUMbotron]

If you want Graham, go get him. He's a baller.

[peepinmofo]

I'm curious what your expectations are for him now that Shockey is no longer there.

Was Shockey really relevant last year? Serious question.

[djk80]

I ended up drafting Whitten in the 5-6th round......however I still ended up getting Jimmy Graham later on

[rajncajn]

Was Shockey really relevant last year? Serious question.

In limited time he had 41 receptions 409 yds & 3 TDs. No, that doesn't really seem relevant until you start looking at just how many receptions TEs get. Last year Marcedes Lewis had 58, Vernon Davis 56. Considering Graham had 31 of his own and with Shockey gone those touches will go somewhere I think it stands to reason that, provided Graham stays healthy, there's a huge workload coming his way. And no, I don't think he'll necessarily be looking at 70+ touches, but look what players like VD & Lewis did with much less.

[peepinmofo]

In limited time he had 41 receptions 409 yds & 3 TDs. No, that doesn't really seem relevant until you start looking at just how many receptions TEs get. Last year Marcedes Lewis had 58, Vernon Davis 56. Considering Graham had 31 of his own and with Shockey gone those touches will go somewhere I think it stands to reason that, provided Graham stays healthy, there's a huge workload coming his way. And no, I don't think he'll necessarily be looking at 70+ touches, but look what players like VD & Lewis did with much less.

Awesome. I drafted him in the 7th or 8th I think, so I hope he lives up to what some say he will/should do.

[detlef]

I'm curious what your expectations are for him now that Shockey is no longer there.

Shockey's best stats ever were 891 yards and 7 TDs. Mostly, he was good for an average of about 4-5 TDs and somewhere around 600 yds. Which is nice enough, for a TE, but that's why TEs, in general, aren't worth a 5th round pick. The few that you can count on to put up numbers nearly as good as a decent WR are, because you're starting the equivalent of 2 WR2s where someone else is starting a WR2 and a TE who is scoring way less than that. But there's about 4-5 of them right now and we know their names. And none of those names are Jimmy Graham. And those are the guys worth taking that high. The rest, however, are all in a grab bag of very talented dudes who may jump into that class or may remain as guys who go for 70 yds and a TD one week and 25 yds and no TDs the next two or three.

 

And, until he proves otherwise, that's where you have to stick Graham. That's not a knock on him. It just is what it is. And, frankly, like him more than most of "the rest". But not enough, seemingly, to take him where it looks like I have to. So, I'll pass and take one of the other talented, athletic TEs who have about as much chance as he does of putting up 800 yds and 8TDs but can be had once the sexy choices are snapped up.

Edited August 30, 2011 by detlef

[terryberry]

Got him in the eleventh round

[byron2112]

If you want Graham, go get him. He's a baller.

 

He's a big ballah fo sho...

[detlef]

In limited time he had 41 receptions 409 yds & 3 TDs. No, that doesn't really seem relevant until you start looking at just how many receptions TEs get. Last year Marcedes Lewis had 58, Vernon Davis 56. Considering Graham had 31 of his own and with Shockey gone those touches will go somewhere I think it stands to reason that, provided Graham stays healthy, there's a huge workload coming his way. And no, I don't think he'll necessarily be looking at 70+ touches, but look what players like VD & Lewis did with much less.

The problem with this logic is that, while either Graham or Shockey were starting, both played in nearly every game last year. So there's plenty of overlap. I guess, my point is that NO likely has a 2nd TE that will poach reps from Graham the same way Graham poached looks from Shockey.

 

Also, Lewis caught lightning in a bottle last year. Converting less than 2x as many receptions as he'd had in each of the previous 3 years into 5x the number of TDs. He's never had more than 2 prior to that. So I'm not buying high on him either. Again, I'll take him at the right price, but there's at least as much chance of him going back to "dude who's barely worth starting" status as there is of him joining the ranks of Gates, Witten, and Clark.

Edited August 30, 2011 by detlef

[rajncajn]

The problem with this logic is that, while either Graham or Shockey were starting, both played in nearly every game last year. So there's plenty of overlap.

 

Also, Lewis caught lightning in a bottle last year. Converting less than 2x as many receptions as he'd had in each of the previous 3 years into 5x the number of TDs. He's never had more than 2 prior to that. So I'm not buying high on him either. Again, I'll take him at the right price, but there's at least as much chance of him going back to "dude who's barely worth starting" status as there is of him joining the ranks of Gates, Witten, and Clark.

Actually Shockey was injured a good part of last season and while he did only miss a couple of games, he wasn't utilized nearly as much after about week 9 when Graham's production jumped. Before that week 9 game Graham hardly saw the field.

 

I know it sounds like it, but I'm not actually disagreeing with you. I also think taking him in the 5th is way too risky. In fact I didn't even consider him taking Mike Williams at 5.8. Graham went the next pick and Lewis, Pettigrew & Daniels didn't go till the 7th. If he did make it to the mid-to-late 6th then I would probably look for him there, but considering any one of those others could have just as much upside it's probably a better value to wait.

[byron2112]

What TE on the Saints roster is gonna poach reps from Graham?

[Goopster24]

What TE on the Saints roster is gonna poach reps from Graham?

 

[rajncajn]

What TE on the Saints roster is gonna poach reps from Graham?

David Thomas? Tory Humphrey? No, I don't think so...

[detlef]

Actually Shockey was injured a good part of last season and while he did only miss a couple of games, he wasn't utilized nearly as much after about week 9 when Graham's production jumped. Before that week 9 game Graham hardly saw the field.

 

I know it sounds like it, but I'm not actually disagreeing with you. I also think taking him in the 5th is way too risky. In fact I didn't even consider him taking Mike Williams at 5.8. Graham went the next pick and Lewis, Pettigrew & Daniels didn't go till the 7th. If he did make it to the mid-to-late 6th then I would probably look for him there, but considering any one of those others could have just as much upside it's probably a better value to wait.

It sounds like we're on the same page. I'd love to have the kid on my team. But, like you, am finding too many better options in the 5th. Again, we're talking about a TE here. And there's just far too many amazingly talented guys at that position who end up putting up borderline WR3 numbers at best to think about taking a guy who seems promising as hell but that's really it that high. And you're a Saints fan, which must make it harder still.

 

It's like the Hightower discussion all over again. Once you start taking the kid that high, you've taken away the upside.

[bostonsoxandy]

This hype for Jimmy Graham is getting out of hand....a FIFTH round pick on this guy?!?! All this hype seems unwarranted since it's pretty much based on the preseason so far, which should be taken very very lightly, and the last three games of last season...three games? really?

 

I think people are forgetting that Brees still has Colston, Meachem, Moore, Henderson, David Thomas, Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram to throw to...you can't count on Graham to get TD's with all those guys having some legitimacy to score and contribute in the Saints offense.

 

Also the Saints do run the ball, and run a lot more than most people think. they didn't last year due to injuries and just overall terrible running play, but now with Ingram, Sproles, a healthy frenchy and eventually Ivory, you can expect them to go back to running like they were before....

 

5th round is absurd. I'd take gates, witten, finley, and davsi before I even think about Graham.

[rajncajn]

This hype for Jimmy Graham is getting out of hand....a FIFTH round pick on this guy?!?! All this hype seems unwarranted since it's pretty much based on the preseason so far, which should be taken very very lightly, and the last three games of last season...three games? really?

 

I think people are forgetting that Brees still has Colston, Meachem, Moore, Henderson, David Thomas, Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram to throw to...you can't count on Graham to get TD's with all those guys having some legitimacy to score and contribute in the Saints offense.

 

Also the Saints do run the ball, and run a lot more than most people think. they didn't last year due to injuries and just overall terrible running play, but now with Ingram, Sproles, a healthy frenchy and eventually Ivory, you can expect them to go back to running like they were before....

 

5th round is absurd. I'd take gates, witten, finley, and davsi before I even think about Graham.

They're basing it on the last 9 weeks of the season, excluding the bye. Other than that and the fact that I think Ivory will be a non-factor this season even IF he comes back, I agree.